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Advertising did not win the elections (again)

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English summary of an article published in French on Belgian Federal Elections in 2010. My feeling is that it is not outdated.

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Advertising did not win the elections (again)

  1. 1. Advertising did not win the elections (again)
  2. 2. Media advertising value 3 times higher in the Flemish part € per vote North € per vote South 1.29 1.06 0.88 0.47 0.44 0.32 2003 2007 2010 2003 2007 2010Source: CIM-MDB for media value, official results of Federal voteshttp://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results
  3. 3. Cause or consequence ? Late decision is frequent in FlandersSource: http://politics.indigov.be/files/postelectoraalonderzoek_deel1.pdf
  4. 4. Why bother with ad investments ? Classic in advertising: Share of Voice (contacts with the brand communication related to the total ad contacts in the category) should equate Share of Market (brand value or volume relative to the total category) Even better : Share of Voice (SOV) higher than Share of Market (SOM) = validated recipe for further success (1 more point SOM for every 10 points excess SOV)Les BINET et Peter FIELD, Marketing in the era of accountability, London, World Advertising Research Center, 2007, p. 44Peter FIELD « Marketing in a downturn : lessons from the past », Market Leader n°42 Autumn 2008, pp.30-31.
  5. 5. The case of the 3 last federal elections, for the Senate (= broad vote districts)
  6. 6. North 2010: the winner in votes not the most visible in [media] advertisingParty % votes % media value Media value per vote €N-VA 31,7 13,3 0,54CD&V 16,1 16,6 1,33sp.a 15,3 20,0 1,69Open Vld 13,3 26,7 2,59Vlaams Belang 12,3 7,3 0,77GROEN! 6,3 10,2 2,10Lijst Dedecker 3,3 5,3 2,11PVDA+ 1,3 0,1 0,07LSP 0,2CAP 0,2Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
  7. 7. North 2007: Open VLD should have been the winnerParty % votes % media value Media value per vote €CD&V NVA 31,4 14,0 0,47Open Vld 20,1 48,7 2,57Vlaams Belang 19,2 2,0 0,11sp.a 16,2 22,3 1,46GROEN! 5,9 5,3 0,96Lijst Dedecker 5,5 6,1 1,19PVDA+ 0,8CAP 0,3NEE 0,3Stijn 0,3Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
  8. 8. North 2003: at that time, N-VA did invest muchParty % votes % media value Media value per vote €sp.a 24,9 17,1 0,60Open Vld 24,7 30,8 1,09CD&V 20,4 26,9 1,15Vlaams Belang 18,2 1,1 0,05N-VA 4,9 14,0 2,50GROEN! 4,0 10,1 2,24LSP 0,2Lijst Dedecker 0PVDA+Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
  9. 9. Another source confirms N-VA votes in 2010 were the « most cost-effective » € per vote 2010 * N-VA 0.70 SP.A 1.87 Groen! 1.87 Vlaams Belang 2.06* Sum of all votes (Chamber+Senate) CD&V 2.26to total expensesSource: LDD 2.58http://static.tijd.be/upload/nota_Maddens_2748288-114497.pdf Open-VLD 2.67 It also confirms Open VLD as heaviest investor relatively to its voters’ base.
  10. 10. South 2010: like in Flanders, no correlation between media pressure and share of votes % votes % media value Media value per vote €PS 35,7 13,4 0,18MR 24,3 36,4 0,66Ecolo 14,3 8,7 0,27CDH 13,5 41,2 1,34Parti Populaire 4,0 0,2 0,02WALLONIE DABORD 2,5PTB+ 2,1R.W.F. 1,6Front des gauches 1,1VIVANT 0,6MSplus 0,2 Vote @ BE Senate Source : http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
  11. 11. South 2007: MR leader in vote and #2 in « share of voice » % votes % media value Media value per vote €MR 32,2 34,5 0,34PS 26,8 23,2 0,28CDH 15,5 39,0 0,81Ecolo 15,2 3,4 0,07FN 5,9R.W.F. 1,3PTB+ 0,8PC 0,8FORCE NATIONALE 0,6CDF 0,5 Vote @ BE Senate Source : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
  12. 12. South 2003: PS gets the most votes compared to its media valueParty % votes % media value Media value per vote €PS 34,0 24,5 0,34MR 32,1 37,7 0,55CDH 14,6 25,6 0,82Ecolo 8,4 8,1 0,45FN 5,9VIVANT 1,5CDF 1,5 3,6 1,07R.W.F. 1,1PTB+ 0,8Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
  13. 13. Too bad !No correlation between SOV and SOM in politics…
  14. 14. Advertising more effective in low involvement makets where repetition is key Politics is normally a high involvement universe with selective perception or perceptive defense to diverging opinions Advertising may only be effective on « late decision-makers » or low commitment votersJean-Noël KAPFERER Les chemins de la Persuasion. Le mode d’influence des media et de la publicité sur les comportements, ParisDunod, coll. « Dunod Entreprise », 1986, p. 340 (ao)
  15. 15. Low sync between media used/allowed for advertising for parties and media that influence people’s votes Media used for paid advertising: mainly print except Vlaams Belang (Outdoor 45% of Main sources for opinion value) and CDH (18% Web) making: Free local news bulletins, debates, political press Outdoor programmes… Internet 6% 5% 1% Mainly audio-visual media Magazines Print ranked lower 12% Source :http://www.indigov.be/attachments/1279094718682/mail.html Newspapers 76% Source : CIM MDB 2010. National
  16. 16. Although not salient in paid media, some parties *did attract large audiences * at least one of them….
  17. 17. Visibility on the Internet Monthly visitors Website 90 80 70 60Total « visitors » on n-va.be 50reached 80 k during the last 40elections month. 30Only website of a political 20party to reach the Comscore 10publication threshold at that 0 Nov-2009 May-2010 Mar-2010 Sep-2009 Jul-2010 Jul-2009 Dec-2009 Feb-2010 Jun-2009 Aug-2009 Oct-2009 Apr-2010 Jun-2010 Jan-2010time ! Comscore = user centric panel also on Belgium. Reported sample size = 10,000 people
  18. 18. Frequency of search queries
  19. 19. Frequency of search queries: party or celebrity ?
  20. 20. Media after all…If media did help win the federal elections It is definitely not advertising in the mediaBecause winners were not the heaviest investors(as in 2003 and 2007) N-VA (and PS ?) probably did stand out in the relevant media and at the right moments … but not only paid media advertising
  21. 21. Media after all…So maybe the « good old » share of voice/share of marketratio actually applies… … but see it as a share of voice in all media: maybe the paid-for ones, but definitely also your own contact points (Website, Facebook pages,…) and the earned media [editorial]
  22. 22. As a conclusionLike it or not, paid media advertising only does not win the elections Media definitely matter, but as a broad aggregate of editorial (earned), owned souding boards and probablyconversation. In this respect, the best possible role of paid media advertising is accelerating the process.
  23. 23. More [in French]: "La publicité na -de nouveau- pas gagné les élections" in Médiatiques n°47 UCL- Observatoire du Récit Médiatique December 2010

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