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GRI Interviews on European Real Estate with Oxford Properties, TKP Investments, Corestate, ING and many more

Michel Vauclair (Oxford Properties), Roellie van Wijk (TKP Investments), Ralph Winter (Corestate), Michael Shields (ING), Michel Vauclair (OPG Commercial RE Europe), Cédric Dujardin (Deutsche Bank) and many more industry leaders share their views on European Real Estate.

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GRI Interviews on European Real Estate with Oxford Properties, TKP Investments, Corestate, ING and many more

  1. 1. GRIEUROPE SUMMIT 2015 RALPH WINTER Founder CORESTATE CAPITAL AG Switzerland Q A& INTERVIEW WITH REAL ESTATE LEADERS ON : JON RICKERT Head of Real Estate Finance RENSHAW BAY UK PATRICE GENRE President LA FRANÇAISE REAL ESTATE PARTNERS France ROELIE VAN WIJK-RUSSCHEN Chief Executive Officer TKP INVESTMENTS Netherlands JAN WILLEM WATTEL Managing Director CERBERUS GLOBAL INVESTMENTS Netherlands DAVIDE ALBERTINI PETRONI General Manager RISANAMENTO Italy European Real Estate On 10, 11 September, the 18th annual GRI Europe Summit will be gathering the most senior level real estate investors, developers and lenders in Europe and will be focusing on pan European issues, opportunities and trends in Paris. For more information, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 French Real Estate RALF NÖCKER MD, Head of RE Investment Europe MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE AND REAL ASSETS (EUROPE) UK GAGIK ADIBEKYAN Chairman RD GROUP Russia MICHEL VAUCLAIR Chairman OPG COMMERCIAL RE EUROPE UK OMAR KOLEILAT COE CRESTYL GROUP CzechRepublic GEORGII IVANOV Managing Director TRINFICO INVESTMENT GROUP Russia CÉDRIC DUJARDIN Head of France DEUTSCHE BANK France CHRISTOPHER GARBE CEO GARBE GROUP Germany MICHAEL SHIELDS Head of REF Western Europe, UK, USA & Structure Products ING UK
  2. 2. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 RALPH WINTER Founder CORESTATE CAPITAL AG Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? R.W.: It is difficult to predict what develop- ment Greece will go through or what direction the recovery of the Spanish economy will take, and it will certainly not be without challenges. One challenge could indeed include politi- cal changes such as regulations brought by a new government. However, you would have to weigh the strengths and opportunities of a giv- en market against its weaknesses and threats with any kind of investment. For us for exam- ple the opportunities outweigh the threats that we see on the Spanish real estate market. Facts such as pending property sales worth 40 billion euros at drastic discounts over the next 15 years by the bad bank Sareb, or the virtually flat-lining construction activity, suggest high potential. UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportuni- ties at the moment in your view? R.W.: Spain for example is now the only coun- try other than UK to draw capital from all global regions. The Spanish real estate market shows good potential and initial yields are clearly above the European average. Housing Price In- dex and land prices are at a historic low and de- velopments are almost non-existent. Therefore we are focusing on development projects in Spain, where other investors have only the ca- pabilities to acquire operating rental assets, but we develop them ourselves. This investment profile makes a lot of sense since the sector has experienced a general reluctance to invest and subsequent lack of funding for several years. Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying prod- uct, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? R.W.: The biggest challenge nowadays for us is to find product. But our strength lies in the fast recognition of market niches and luckily we are in a position to find attractive oppor- tunities, even today. The biggest mistake you can make as an investor is to hold on to estab- lished business models without adjusting the variables. Especially with fast changing market conditions and global money flows you need to be flexible, because it is crucial to adapt a given investment to the latest market conditions. In addition our firm’s success lies in its unique in- ternational investment and asset management platform that delivers local operating capabili- ties and, ultimately, value creation to the assets in which the firm invests.
  3. 3. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 DAVIDE ALBERTINI PETRONI General Manager RISANAMENTO Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? D.A.P.: Generally, uncertainty is the investors’ foe and makes them nervous. The quantita- tive easing programme made by ECB, seems to reduce the risks of the geopolitical turmoil, contributing to the short – term interest rates close to zero and a weak euro currency, helping to awash with capital the Eurozone. Then, Eu- rope is home to a diversified range of markets and cities and European domestic demand re- mains high boosted by an improving purchase power and an increasing bank lending. I don’ t see a relevant impact on real estate sector. There is also the end of the lose money looming. How does that eventuality impact your investment strategy? D.A.P.: We as a company have an investment strategy being geographically focused and in the longer term, therefore not affected by the current events. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? D.A.P.: The stock market volatility, the fears of a deflation and a limited economy growth push to a stronger demand for properties, due to its relative high yield and risk profile. All the more, the shortage of core assets should make the investors worried. UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportuni- ties at the moment in your view? D.A.P.: Demand for core assets in primary markets remains significant , albeit the yield compression, but the investors are focusing on value add opportunities in second tier markets and cities, embracing more risks just to seek higher returns. Southern markets, notably Spain and Italy, lead the up turn this year with vol- umes up an estimated 40%. Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? D.A.P.: We are developer and therefore iden- tifying right products for the future real estate market and finding the right partners to carry on the projects remain our biggest challenge.
  4. 4. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 JAN WILLEM WATTEL Managing Director CERBERUS GLOBAL INVESTMENTS Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? J.W.W.: Not much as we have seen so far. It even looks now that the Euro will survive a Grexit, since the problem looks contained. Besides, real estate investors have only choice between North America, Europe and selected cities in Asia, so for allocation reasons already, they will not leave at least Western-Europe. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? J.W.W.: Prime office and retail investments in the crisis only became more or remained ex- pensive at yields around 5%; one sees the sec- ond best locations coming back in sound mar- kets. A normal reaction after an economic crisis, so there is no bubble also given the allocation given to real estate investments. UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportuni- ties at the moment in your view? J.W.W.: Countries with a sound real estate market depending on the re category and with a balanced government budget.
  5. 5. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 JON RICKERT Head of Real Estate Finance RENSHAW BAY Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? J.R.: Geopolitical events have played an im- portant role in defining market activity. The best evidence of this is the London real estate market which is viewed as a safe haven from a lot of the drama. Unfortunately, the geopolitical dramas to which you refer do not appear to be going away any time soon. The longer the peri- od of uncertainty the greater the impact. There is also the end of the lose money looming. How does that eventuality impact your investment strategy? J.R.: Central bank intervention has Inflated as- set prices across all markets. The longer these conditions continue the more pain we are likely to experience during the transition to markets functioning without such intervention. At this point we think that transition is manageable, and the sooner it happens the better. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? J.R.: No bubble at the moment. The availability of credit for real estate, a key driver in the de- velopment of the last bubble, remains well be- low peak levels experienced in 2007. However, if asset prices continue to adapt to the current level of interest rates and interest rates remain abnormally low for an extended period, the risk of a bubble will grow. Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? J.R.: Finding the right product at the right price – staying away from the most closely fought deals.
  6. 6. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 ROELIE VAN WIJK-RUSSCHEN Chief Executive Officer TKP INVESTMENTS Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? R.V.W.: It’s pretty uncertain what the impact of a Grexit on the real estate market would be. In terms of pricing, it’s imaginable that a Grexit, together with the risk of further financial stress in other Southern European countries, will re- sult in a continuing low interest rate environ- ment in Western Europe. This would drive initial yields down, because investor demand will shift from traditional fixed income instruments to real assets that provide a stable income stream. During the last few years, infrastructure and real estate investments enjoyed a growing interest and have been considered as a substitute for bonds. As a consequence, real estate prices would stick to their current high levels when- ever a Grexit would result in a continuing low interest rate environment. The impact of a Grexit on the occupational market is more difficult to predict. The impact will be delayed and the negative effects will be visible after at least one or two years. If one assumes that a Grexit will result in a continuous low growth environment in Europe, further job cuts and a decrease in retail demand should be expected. This would hurt rents and income streams going forward. There is also the end of the lose money looming. How does that eventuality impact your investment strategy? R.V.W.: No clear view on this unfortunately. Hopefully, a clear solution for Greece is con- cluded shortly. Because of QE, a lot of money flows into financial markets which drives secu- rity prices up. On the other hand, signs of sub- stantial economic growth are hard to be seen. That is at least a confusing situation. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? R.V.W.: Indeed, we don’t see a bubble on the occupational market. On the other hand, in many core real estate markets entry yields went down quite significantly anticipating economic and rental growth going forward. Only the US can be seen as a market where yield compres- sion could be justified by strong occupational demand. In many markets and sectors anticipat- ed rental growth has been priced into current transaction prices. This observation is, however, not only applicable to real estate markets. Most financial markets seem to be expensive nowa- days which proves the added value of diversifi- cation over multiple asset categories. Continue on the next page...
  7. 7. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportuni- ties at the moment in your view? R.V.W: Yes indeed, a lot of attention is devot- ed to Germany and the UK. TKP Investments (TKPI) concludes that other real estate markets and sectors are attractive as well. A sounding example is the Dutch residential market that suffered from political uncertainty about antic- ipated changes in the leasing regulation dur- ing last few years. This topic has been solved. Furthermore, residential yields went up after the Global Financial Crisis. Nowadays, there is room for yield compression during the next few years. Furthermore, if you take into account that residential investments offer a stable dividend stream, it’s fair to conclude that residential in- vestments are quite popular amongst Dutch pension schemes. Another positive example is the European logistic market. As soon as European economic growth really takes off, the demand for modern logistic buildings will increase. A further boost of logistic demand will be provided by the in- crease of online sales. Although the Nordic real estate market may be priced quite aggressively, TKPI still considers ac- tive managed Nordic investments as attractive. Especially when investments are being done alongside well-informed local partners. Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? R.V.W.: It’s a challenge to find real estate fund managers that stick to their believes and don’t show signs of style drift. This is especially ap- plicable to value add and opportunistic fund managers. For that reason TKPI has decided to team-up with a limited amount of value add and opportunistic managers going forward. Only the ones that showed ongoing skill are part of the TKPI investment universe for value add and opportunistic categories. Another challenge is to diversify in terms of vin- tage years. During periods of uncertainty, like today, it’s important to spread your investments over time and to diversify in terms of vintage years. You shouldn’t put your money at work during a short time period. The cliché of not putting all eggs in the same basket proved its’ truth again. History has shown that a good mix of vintage years pays off. ROELIE VAN WIJK-RUSSCHEN Chief Executive Officer TKP INVESTMENTS
  8. 8. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 RALF NÖCKER Managing Director, Head of Real Estate Investment Europe MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE AND REAL ASSETS (EUROPE) Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? R.N.: Property has for a long time being seen as a safe haven in uncertain times, and I think that this very much holds true at present. Fea- tures such as implicit and explicit inflation protection, downside protection through al- ternative use and the low correlation to other, traded asset classes make property a compel- ling investment case. With the US being clearly over-bought, and Asia volatile in place, Europe presents best value There is also the end of the lose money looming. How does that eventuality impact your investment strategy? R.N.: We believe that QE in Europe still has some time to run, and that the current events actually prolong it. In the US, people have con- sistently underestimated the power, and time aspect of QE. Having said this, we have calibrat- ed our investment strategy to focus on niches which have not (ye) been over-bought, feature strong tenants from the “real” economy and which are therefore well protected. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? R.N.: There are certain submarkets and as- set classes where price appreciation has been unprecedented, and where capital values are now at historical heights. In some cases, that is justified by paradigm shifts (witness the rise of prime retail in global gateway cities), but other rallies look unsustainable. Our core skill is to choose and pick the right corners and execute smart transactions, even if these might appear contrarian at first notice. UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportunities at the moment in your view? R.N: At Macquarie, we are generally excited about CEE, with Poland, Czeck and Slovakia showing fantastic fundamentals and conver- gence potential. Italy is another, fundamentally healthy market with great potential. Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? R.N: Finding the right deal in the right niche at the right time – capital and partners are plentiful at present.
  9. 9. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 GAGIK ADIBEKYAN Chairman RD GROUP Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? G.A.: Talking about investments in Europe it should not be regarded as a homogeneous market for investments. Each country has its own specific character. Alongside with that, such economic and political alliance as the Eu- ropean Union being established, mainly, for the purpose of economic integration, has advanta- geous instruments for settlement of difficulties occurring in particular countries. Over the years of its existence, this institution has more than once demonstrated its resources and capabili- ties. Notwithstanding the situation with Greece, Scotland, and Russia, we do not see system risks capable of radical changing the existing situ- ation in the European market in the mid- and long-term with high probability. Our company has been functioning in substantially less sta- ble market of Russia for the last 20 years, and performance figures of our projects witness the ability of being successful even in such condi- tions”. There is also the end of the lose money looming. How does that eventuality impact your investment strategy? G.A.: Development in the property market – is a risk always. That is why every investor finds a niche and a market for himself meeting his ideas about income and risk ratio. Our portfo- lio is based on core and core+ projects; at the same time, in the European market we review and implement opportunistic projects, because such projects in particular let us approach the market and be conscious of processes occur- ring inside it. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? G.A.: Let’s take London market, for example. For several years already we can hear about the last frontier after which the “bubble” will burst, but nothing happens. To a greater degree, such events depend on a number of macroeconomic factors and if they are stable – do not wait for catastrophe. UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportunities at the moment in your view? G.A: Some cities in markets of Austria and Spain offer opportunities for opportunistic pro- jects with the annual earning power approxi- mately 20%. Continue on the next page...
  10. 10. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? G.A: Sufficient deal of interest should be paid to each such category in any project in any market, and then the project will turn out to be successful. We think that in the real property, alongside with a famous axiomatic statement “location, location and location”, there is anoth- er equally important face of success: correct product concept. Combining these two factors all other tasks will be settled much easier. GAGIK ADIBEKYAN Chairman RD GROUP
  11. 11. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 MICHEL VAUCLAIR Chairman OPG COMMERCIAL RE EUROPE Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? M.V.: European real estate investment markets remain very strong, with little sign that the uncertainty around Greece and other macro events is feeding into sentiment or pricing as yet – however, it is early days and we re- main vigilant. If volatility in the bond markets remains high and bond yields move out, we would expect real estate yields to follow suit, although in the short-term markets such as London should benefit from a renewed flight to safety. The impact on the occupational side is harder to gauge but could be more significant, especially as it relates to the UK EU referendum. There is also the end of the lose money looming. How does that eventuality impact your investment strategy? M.V.: Central bank liquidity and low global in- terest rates have been major drivers behind the weight of capital and positive returns that we have seen in recent years. As this unwinds, we expect the markets to face significant challeng- es, especially for secondary product or where you do not have the underlying economic and rental growth to support current asset valua- tions. For this reason we are focused on prime assets in major gateway cities where we can add value through our development and asset management expertise. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? M.V.: Talk of an asset bubble is relative – all global assets classes are overvalued today rela- tive to their fundamentals due to excess liquid- ity in the system and very low interest rates. We believe European property still offers good val- ue on a relative basis, largely because we are at an earlier stage of the economic recovery and because we expect European central bank sup- port to continue further into the cycle. UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportunities at the moment in your view? M.V: Within Europe, London remains our primary focus market due to its growth pros- pects. However, we also believe that there are interesting opportunities in Paris, especially for good quality modern office stock close to major transportation nodes and in the high street re- tail space. Continue on the next page...
  12. 12. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? M.V: The current market environment pre- sents a number of challenges – the biggest is remaining patient and disciplined around strat- egy and pricing and taking a long-term view. Given the current mix of low interest rates and wall of cash: what is your outlook for European Real Estate over the next 12 – 24 months? M.V: The traditional markets such as London and Paris have indeed become very challenging in terms of pricing and the ‘’wall of cash’’ is cer- tainly a factor influencing the pricing in these two cities. On the other hand, the rest of the European capital cities and the regional UK and French markets remain accessible. Which countries in Europe will provide the best investment opportunities in 2015, and why? M.V: There is no direct answer to the question as most investors first define their investment strategies which as a consequence define the countries/markets where they invest. However, It remains true that in order to catch the best investment opportunities, market intelligence, speed and execution proven track record are key factors. Direct vs indirect investing: Is there a clear ad- vantage to either and is finding the right part- ners creating the most value? M.V: Both are good as direct investments means full control of the asset strategy but is limited by in-house competencies while indi- rect allows broader horizon and diversification but brings constraints in strategical decisions. I consider that the choice of competent asset investor/managers is adequate. With bank lending still constrained, what signif- icance does alternative lending play? M.V: Currently in most European markets, I do not see bank lending constraints. On another note, whom are you looking for- ward to meet at GRI Europe Summit this year? M.V: Like-minded long term investors in order to consider larger tickets in selected markets. MICHEL VAUCLAIR Chairman OPG COMMERCIAL RE EUROPE
  13. 13. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 OMAR KOLEILAT CEO CRESTYL GROUP Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertain- ties have on real estate activities in Europe go- ing forward? O.K.: I believe that although real estate as such is a mid to long term type of investment, we will remain for the coming several years in situations where deals can break at the last mo- ment, as final decisions (IC or other) are done only at the last moment. No decision process is a mere admin process. In this period, although we do a see a high recovery for RE apetite, the saying that the deal is only done when signed and sealed (and paid) cannot be more true. There is also the end of the lose money looming. How does that eventuality impact your investment strategy? O.K.: I do not think that there is an end loom- ing only with the turbulences it is becomes more or less selective, but will remain relatively cheap. So the strategy is to invest in dominant schemes. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? O.K.: I stand with the “few”. UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportunities at the moment in your view? O.K.: I am bias, but I strongly believe in CEE, I feel the cap rate gap is much wider than the risk attached especially in Czech and Poland that show robust economies. Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? O.K.: Challenges are the macro turbulences, and how this can effect individuals that are making decisions, at every level of a project’s process (Finacing/ tenants/ other). I believe a person can expect surprises at any moment, but unlike the 2008-2010 period, you do then find alternatives . Therefor it is times where a person should con- tinuously have a plan B.
  14. 14. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 GEORGII IVANOV Managing Director TRINFICO INVESTMENT GROUP Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum, Russia. How much bearing will such uncertainties have on real estate activities in Europe going for- ward? G.I.: These factors definitely increase uncertainty and risk in property investments, especially for those who target the mentioned markets. How- ever, we believe the level of cross-border invest- ment into core urban markets in EU will be less affected. The adverse effects of Grexit, Brexit and the Russian factor are not truly perceived as fun- damental and many investors are keen to adjust. Of those three Brexit is seen as potentially the most impactful factor. But the expectation that Britain really steps out of the EU is very low and is seen by many as a rather low probability stress scenario. There is also the end of the lose money looming. How does that eventuality impact your investment strategy? G.I.: Our strategy has always been a combination of value add and core with significant effort and measures directed to loss aversion and risk man- agement. In the improving market conditions we don’t plan to increase exposure to riskier invest- ments and we will stick with our original invest- ment strategy. Only a few see a property bubble in Europe? Where do you stand? G.I.: With record low interest rates and liquidity on healthy levels there is always a risk of over- heating. Some markets show very sharp property price increases over recent years (London, Gene- va, Munich, Tel Aviv, etc.). To that end we cannot completely eliminate the possibility of a property bubble elsewhere. However, the reasons for dras- tic price increases has to be considered in concert with specific supply and demand factors on each market. Some locations such as for instance Lon- don and Tel Aviv have large physical constraints for building activity that cause sharper price in- creases as soon as demand recovers and this may not necessarily be a sign of a bubble. UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which other markets hold the best opportunities at the moment in your view? G.I.: Well-performing secondary markets such as Munich, Madrid, Vienna and even higher yield- ing markets in Southern and emerging Europe backed by stronger economies (Milano, Torino, Croatia, Czech Republic). Continue on the next page...
  15. 15. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 GEORGII IVANOV Managing Director TRINFICO INVESTMENT GROUP Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your biggest challenge? G.I.: Deal entry/finding partners and exit oppor- tunities/strategies bear the highest uncertainty. Given the current mix of low interest rates and wall of cash: what is your outlook for European Real Estate over the next 12 – 24 months? G.I.: Investment activity will grow with larger focus on well-performing secondary markets such as Munich, Madrid or even higher yielding markets such as Southern and emerging Europe. Abundance of cash and low interest rates create ample opportunity in hotel investment in particu- lar. Softening of interest rates and underwriting standards will revamp the European CMBS market and this will additionally spur up the real estate investment growth in Europe. Which countries in Europe will provide the best investment opportunities in 2015, and why? G.I.: Countries that have been previously over- looked because of economic and political un- certainty will regain interest by offering higher returns in improved economic conditions. Here we could mention Spain, Portugal and Ireland in particular. Also, large economic centers of Ger- many are expected to attract investment lured by combination of low risk and strong potential for value appreciation during next 12 months. Direct vs indirect investing: Is there a clear advan- tage to either and is finding the right partners cre- ating the most value? G.I.: I think this entirely depends on the business model? There is no clear cut advantages of either investing method in front of the other. With bank lending still constrained, what signifi- cance does alternative lending play? G.I.: Alternative lending definitely opens up more opportunities for investing in riskier high-yil- eding locations that are often overlooked by big bank underwriters. However, bank lending would still remain the backbone of the lending industry.
  16. 16. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 CHRISTOPHER GARBE CEO GARBE GROUP Given the current mix of low interest rates and wall of cash: what is your outlook for European Real Estate over the next 12 – 24 months? C.G.: Prices will increase further. Due to cheap euro rates and low interest rates. Which countries in Europe will provide the best investment opportunities in 2015, and why? C.G.: Germany will remain top of the list due to strong economic background and extremely low lending margins compare to other European countries. Direct vs indirect investing: Is there a clear advan- tage to either and is finding the right partners cre- ating the most value? C.G.: Its depending on the asset class. In the standard asset classes direct investment can make sense. However in the more specialized as- set classes indirect investment is more favorable due to specialized knowledge of the expert asset manager. Specialised Asset Managers are better in sourcing a deal pipeline, picking the right deal in a tight market and are better in dealing with problems. With bank lending still constrained, what signifi- cance does alternative lending play? C.G.: Alternative lending definitely opens up more opportunities for investing in riskier high-yil- eding locations that are often overlooked by big bank underwriters. However, bank lending would still remain the backbone of the lending industry.
  17. 17. Q A& Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders. To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015 MICHAEL SHIELDS Head of REF Western Europe, UK, USA and Structure Products ING Given the current mix of low interest rates and wall of cash: what is your outlook for European Real Estate over the next 12 – 24 months? M.S.: I’m bullish, outside of London – new sup- ply remains constrained. Core and Core + assets are seeing plenty of equity and debt capital. Value-add financing is becoming more available and at lower margins. Generally vacancy rates and rental rates are stable to improving. The Euro drop should help economic activity and attract investment. Which countries in Europe will provide the best in- vestment opportunities in 2015, and why? M.S.: Generally, I still like Southern Europe. Cost of debt is much cheaper than it was, yields are higher, no new supply, plenty of room left in the cycle – you just need to be patient. With bank lending still constrained, what signifi- cance does alternative lending play? M.S.: I see alternative lending playing a needed role in mispriced secondary locations – stuff that the banks won’t touch. On another note, whom are you looking forward to meet at GRI Europe Summit this year? M.S.: Foreign investors and their Asset managers!
  18. 18. PATRICE GENRE President LA FRANÇAISE REAL ESTATE PARTNERS Taux de rendements qui se resserrent, économie morose, où voyez-vous les grands défis de cette fin d’année? P.G.: La compression des taux de rendement depuis 2 ans est effectivement impression- nante. Néanmoins les taux de rendement de l’immobilier se sont compressés beaucoup moins que les taux obligataires et les prix n’ont pas flambé comme les actions en bourse donc je suis confiant sur la solidité du marché de l’investissement. Concernant le marché locatif, on constate un début de reprise de l’activité en France qui aura un impact direct sur le marché locatif notamment à Paris et sa première couronne. Quelles sont pour vous les grandes tendances sur le marché de l’investissement français? P.G.: Le marché de l’investissement immobilier est très compétitif pour les produits de qualité (bien localisés et bien loués). Mais c’est normal car on assiste à un ‘flight to quality’. Ce que je ne comprends pas c’est que des immeubles secondaires et notamment à restructurer ou présentant des états locatifs risqués trouvent acheteurs à des prix proche des immeubles core. Cela me laisse perplexe. Quels sont vos principaux objectifs au GRI France & Europe Summit cette année? P.G.: Echanger sur nos visions respectives du marché immobilier. Trouver de nouvelles idées. Entretenir mes relations et rencontrer de nou- velles personnes. Rejoignez Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice ainsi que Cédric lors du prochain GRI France – Co localisé avec le GRI Europe Summit – à Paris les 10 & 11 Septembre prochains afin de discuter de ces différents sujets et bien d’autres encore avec l’ensemble des plus hauts dirigeants des sociétés d’investissements, banques et promoteurs immobiliers. Pour plus d’informations sur nos participants & sujets de discussions, visitez: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015
  19. 19. Taux de rendements qui se resserrent, économie morose, Où voyez-vous les grands défis cette année? C.D.: Je pense que le grand défi du moment repose sur l’écart considérable qui se creuse entre un marché de l’investissement euphorique dans lequel chaque trimestre qui passe voit les taux se compresser de pratiquement 25 bips tandis que le marché locatif semble toujours aussi tendu et le taux de vacance difficilement se résorber. Une petite réserve toutefois sur le marché locatif des immeubles de qualité où un frémissement commence à se faire sentir. Nous sommes donc particulièrement attentif au suivi de nos locataires et de leurs contraintes sur nos actifs sous gestion. Sur l’investissement, nous nous efforçons de ne pas perdre de vue les fondamentaux immobiliers moins sensibles aux effets de cycle. Paris, encore Paris, toujours Paris, quelles opportunités voyez-vous sur le projet du Grand Paris. C.D.: Là encore, nous sommes vigilants aux contraintes des utilisateurs. De belles opportunités vont naître du Grand Paris mais il ne faut pas oublier de rester dans un espace-temps raisonnable. Même un investisseur long-terme ne se projette pas en se disant qu’il y aura une nouvelle station de métro dans 10 ans. Le plus grand intérêt du grand Paris selon moi serait de faire bouger les frontières intellectuelles du fameux code postal parisien. Paris ne peut plus se réduire à l’intra-muros qui est beaucoup trop petit en comparaison de ses grandes rivales mondiales, à commencer par Londres. Régions, marchés de niches, logistiques, où se trouvent les nouvelles opportunités ? C.D.: Comme en 2005, partout ! Nous regardons des dossiers en région et en logistique sur lesquels nous pouvons encore trouver des rendements suffisants. Nous sommes toutefois extrêmement sélectifs afin de s’assurer de la résilience du cash-flow dans ce cas là. Nous aimons bien les portefeuilles également même si nous ne sommes pas les seuls. Quels sont vos principaux objectifs au GRI France cette année? C.D.: Prendre encore et toujours le pouls du marché. Valider nos stratégies ou les faire évoluer. CÉDRIC DUJARDIN Head of France DEUTSCHE BANK Rejoignez Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Christopher, Michael, Patrice ainsi que Cédric lors du prochain GRI France – Co localisé avec le GRI Europe Summit – à Paris les 10 & 11 Septembre prochains afin de discuter de ces différents sujets et bien d’autres encore avec l’ensemble des plus hauts dirigeants des sociétés d’investissements, banques et promoteurs immobiliers. Pour plus d’informations sur nos participants & sujets de discussions, visitez: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015

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