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Failure sdip kopia 23


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Directed at how failure may be conducive to innovation

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Failure sdip kopia 23

  1. 1. Failure 2013-10-11 torsdag 24 oktober 13
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  3. 3. Brunelleschi’s dome Construction work begun in 1296... ... its width made it impossible to cover... ... thus failure... ... until Brunelleschi had invented tools + methods 1436 torsdag 24 oktober 13
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  6. 6. Fail frequently Difficult childhood Less than one year formal schooling Failed in business in 1831 Defeated for legislature, '32 Again failed in business, '33 Elected to legislature, '34 Fiancée died, '35 Defeated for Speaker, '38 Defeated for Elector, '40 Married, wife a burden, '42 Only one of his four sons lived past the age of 18 Defeated for Congress, '43 Elected to Congress, '46 Defeated for Congress, '48 Defeated for Senate, '55 Defeated for Vice-President, Defeated for Senate, '58 torsdag 24 oktober 13
  7. 7. It takes persistance Louis L’Amour, successful author of over 100 western novels with over 200 M copies in print, received 350 rejections before his first sale During its first year, the Coca-Cola Company sold only 400 Cokes Dr. Seuss's first children's book, And to Think that I Saw It on Mulberry Street, was rejected by 27 publishers. The 28th, Vanguard Press, sold 6 M copies Chester Carlson took his idea to 20 corporations, including some of the biggest in the country. All turned him down. In 1946, after seven years of rejections Haloid (= Xerox) bought it 18 publishers turned down Richard Bach's 10,000-word story about a "soaring" seagull, Jonathan Livingston Seagull, before Macmillan published it 1970. By 1975, it had sold more than 7 M copies just in the U.S. Walt Disney was fired by a newspaper editor for lack of ideas. He also went bankrupt several times torsdag 24 oktober 13
  8. 8. Dyson, Edison... Dyson:5,127 prototypes, thus 5,126 failures -- 15 years (Now 3rd gen) At my 15th prototype, my 3rd child was born. By 2,627, my wife and I were really counting pennies. By 3,727, my wife had to give art lessons for extra cash Edison: I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.’ Those 10,000 detours resulted in the Dictaphone, mimeograph, stock ticker, storage battery, carbon transmitter and joint invention of the light bulb. torsdag 24 oktober 13
  9. 9. Method?? 1928 Alexander Fleming accidentally left a cover off a petri dish for a bacteria culture. The plate was contaminated by a mold containing penicillin. Fleming’s lack of lab discipline made for a breakthrough In radioactive beta decay a nucleus produces either an electron or a positron. These particles could have a range of energies — which makes no sense if they come from the same process; energy should be constant. This led to the discovery of the neutrino. torsdag 24 oktober 13
  10. 10. Babson analysis 635 globals 1-10% growth = 33% experimenters 11-20% growth = 46% > 20% growth = 56% ”They drill more holes” torsdag 24 oktober 13
  11. 11. Equates with experience! Failure the way to learn a language to walk to bike to swim to engineer etc torsdag 24 oktober 13
  12. 12. Several categories of failure Failures may serve as innovation spurs differently plain incompetence straightforward impossibilities lack of knowledge happy failure economic trade-offs thinking traps torsdag 24 oktober 13
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  15. 15. Unacceptables! 95 % heli crashes = human errors Tchernobyl Costa Concordia Sun coast highriser hotel Surviving failures torsdag 24 oktober 13
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  17. 17. Several categories of failure They may serve as innovation spurs differently plain incompetence straightforward impossibilities lack of knowledge happy failure = Serendipity economic trade-offs thinking traps torsdag 24 oktober 13
  18. 18. Serendipity: something w/materials Diamorph Kanthal Upsalite Teflon Saccharin Post-It SuperGlue Vulcanized rubber torsdag 24 oktober 13
  19. 19. ... and more Microwave Velcro X-rays Pacemaker Bakelite torsdag 24 oktober 13
  20. 20. Several categories of failure They may serve as innovation spurs differently plain incompetence straightforward impossibilities lack of knowledge happy failure economic trade-offs torsdag 24 oktober 13
  21. 21. Impossibilities Squaring the circle The halting problem Chaotic systems Catastrophes (Thom) Perpetuum mobile (all thermodynamics) Translation (–> interpretation) Understanding music Uncertainty principle Division by zero Mythical man-month Systems dynamics Make parallel lines meet torsdag 24 oktober 13
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  23. 23. Several (part) synonyms Like mistake Like error Like deviation Like miss Like inadequate Like out of order torsdag 24 oktober 13
  24. 24. Several categories of failure They may serve as innovation spurs differently plain incompetence straightforward impossibilities lack of knowledge happy failure economic trade-offs thinking traps torsdag 24 oktober 13
  25. 25. Lack of knowledge Tacoma Narrows Bridge John Hancock Tower Warship Wasa Millennium Bridge The Tower of Pisa torsdag 24 oktober 13
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  28. 28. Google’s biggest failures Google Wave (May 2009 to August 2010) Google SearchWiki (November 2008 to March 2010) Google Audio Ads (January 2006 to February 2009) Google Video (January 2005 to January 2009) (sing) Dodgeball (May 2005 to January 2009) Jaiku (October 2007 to January 2009) Google Notebook (May 2006 – January 2009) Google Catalogs (December 2001 to January 2009) Google Print Ads (November 2006 to January 2009) Google Page Creator (April 2006 to August 2008) Google Notebook (May 2006 – January 2009) Google Answers (April 2002 to November 2006) Google Health (2008 - 2011) Google Reader, iGoogle RIP 2013 torsdag 24 oktober 13
  29. 29. Facebook flops 1. Beacon. 2007-2009 track purchases on other sites, then publish that information 2. Social Reader. 2010, “frictionless sharing,” clicked “ok” once and then everyone who knew you on Facebook could see what you were reading. 3. Poke. Facebook sees new app, Snapchat, getting popular. Tries to buy Snapchat. Gets rebuffed. Creates clone of Snapchat called Poke. But people still like Snapchat. Poke is a dud. As Farhad Manjoo points out, when the 800pound gorilla can’t even stamp out a tiny startup, this is not a good sign. 4. Places. Clone of Foursquare. 2010-2011 5. Find Friends Nearby. 2012, killed within 24 hours. 6. Deals. 2011 killed after four months. 7. Questions. 2010-2012 8. Mail. November 2010, -- November 2011, mocked as a failure. 9. Mobile App Ad Network. Launched last year, Shelved in December. 10. Project Spartan. The buzz on HTML5 started in June 2011. Ten months later, in August 2012, Zuckerberg admitted that betting on HTML5 had been “the biggest mistake we made” torsdag 24 oktober 13
  30. 30. Several categories of failure They may serve as innovation spurs differently plain incompetence straightforward impossibilities lack of knowledge happy failure economic trade-offs thinking traps torsdag 24 oktober 13
  31. 31. Other happy failure ...besides serendipity Self-defeating future studies Considering/opting for several alternatives Planned obsolescense Security measures (e g, water, fire watch, split pin) {Failure by design} torsdag 24 oktober 13
  32. 32. Several categories of failure They may serve as innovation spurs differently plain incompetence straightforward impossibilities lack of knowledge happy failure economic trade-offs thinking traps torsdag 24 oktober 13
  33. 33. Bathtub curve All components same life: guarantee (Ford’s kingpin) Fix rejects Burn in: discover errors TQM torsdag 24 oktober 13
  34. 34. Broadening the scope de Bono’s elevator hall Kasumigaseki highriser: mid weakness Yokohama highriser: computer controlled rebalancing weight Integrated circuits: routing around misses balancing yield vs capability torsdag 24 oktober 13
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  36. 36. Tuning up (small scale) production Learn from, correct mistakes Everone may pull the plug/light up No inventory, JIT Integrate tasks, no MTM Reduce/eliminate set-up time Tailored tooling torsdag 24 oktober 13
  37. 37. Unavoidable deviations 6∑ ... or, more generally, statistical measures Match components Humans too dirty? = clean room/flowbox Buildings too shaky? = house within a house torsdag 24 oktober 13
  38. 38. Some of Einstein’s Mistakes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 1905 Mistake in clock synchronization on which Einstein based special relativity 1905 Failure to consider Michelson-Morley experiment 1905 Mistake in transverse mass of high-speed particles 1905 Multiple mistakes in the mathematics/physics used to calculate liquid viscosity used to deduce molecule size 1905 Mistakes in the relationship between thermal radiation and quanta of light 1905 Mistake in the first proof of E = mc2 1906 Mistakes in the second, third, and fourth proofs of E = mc2 1907 Mistake in the synchronization procedure for accelerated clocks 1907 Mistakes in the Principle of Equivalence of gravitation and acceleration 1911 Mistake in the first calculation of the bending of light 1913 Mistake in the first attempt at a theory of general relativity 1914 Mistake in the fifth proof of E = mc2 1915 Mistake in the Einstein-de Haas experiment 1915 Mistakes in several attempts at theories of general relativity 1916 Mistake in the interpretation of Mach’s principle 1917 Mistake in the introduction of the cosmological constant (the “biggest blunder”) 1919 Mistakes in two attempts to modify general relativity 1925 Mistakes and more mistakes in the attempts to formulate a unified theory 1927 Mistakes in discussions with Bohr on quantum uncertainties 1933 Mistakes in interpretation of quantum mechanics (Does God play dice?) 1934 Mistake in the sixth proof of E = mc2 1939 Mistake in the interpretation of the Schwarzschild singularity and gravitational collapse (the “black hole”) 1946 Mistake in the seventh proof of E = mc2 torsdag 24 oktober 13
  39. 39. Several categories of failure They may serve as innovation spurs differently plain incompetence straightforward impossibilities lack of knowledge happy failure economic trade-offs thinking traps torsdag 24 oktober 13
  40. 40. Thinking traps Conditional probabilistics Black Swans (Taleb’s turkey) Low vs high speed thinking ex. anchoring ex. caught in investment/sunk cost ex. ownership bias ex. confirmation bias ex. incomplete info Rules of the thumb torsdag 24 oktober 13
  41. 41. Intelligent failure Fail fast — cheap — early. Go out to fail. Fire, aim, repeat. Genuine uncertainty – so go reduce it! Set up for obtaining/generating information Careful planning Riskier to do nothing, or to analyze, than to act and fail Managed quickly = not too much time between outcome and interpretation Limited cost -- cost contained Underlying assumptions documented in writing Plan to test the assumptions Risks of failing understood, to best extent mitigated Commitments scaled to how understanding increases Meaning of success defined – opportunities significant + Some of what’s learned familiar enough to inform other parts of the business torsdag 24 oktober 13
  42. 42. Intelligent failures If possible, start building in format/medium as close to the finished goal as possible: iterate-iterate-iterate. ”Eat dogfood” ß testing +Partial failures far more valuable than total breakdowns Build & try prototypes, mockups and samples torsdag 24 oktober 13
  43. 43. Failure a teacher 1 Check your assumptions Ask why results feel like a failure What theory is contradicted? Maybe the hypothesis failed, NOT the experiment Or... was it the wrong experiment? 2 Seek Out the Ignorant Talk to people unfamiliar. Explaining in simple terms may help to see in a new light 3 Encourage Diversity 4 Beware of Failure-Blindness torsdag 24 oktober 13
  44. 44. Idea/failure dynamics 1 out of 60 succeeds 59 failures? Allow for crude trial = Time, resources, discretionary funding >> 1/60 = Several more than ’60’ Learning = >>>>1/60 torsdag 24 oktober 13
  45. 45. Management measures Google’s 20 % 3M’s recycling of experience, Spencer Silver 60 % formal product launches fail Ratan Tata’s prize Reward achievements, both failures and successes Apple: >80 % failures IBM: ’we spent X k$ on your training’ torsdag 24 oktober 13
  46. 46. Novel practices? Failure inventory Failure balance sheet Failure case learning Failure report dissemination ROF? CFO?? torsdag 24 oktober 13
  47. 47. Open innovation: failures for sale Innocentive torsdag 24 oktober 13
  48. 48. The quality of failure AXE because of Spaghetti software Convincing -- must act despite crisis Other example: US constitution torsdag 24 oktober 13
  49. 49. AXE: flexibility power Mechanical modules (test at home) New tech generations Modular software (no spaghetti) Application modules Analog --> Digital Failure avoidance torsdag 24 oktober 13
  50. 50. Statistics fail: Black Swans 1) Avoid Optimization, Learn to Love Redundancy 2) Avoid prediction of remote payoffs 3) Beware the "atypicality" of remote events 4) Time. It takes much, much longer for a times series in the Fourth Quadrant to reveal its property 5) Beware Moral Hazard 6) Metrics. Conventional metrics based on type 1 randomness don't work. Words like "standard deviation" are not stable and does not measure anything 7) Where is the skewness? 8) Do not confuse absence of volatility with absence of risks. 9) Beware presentations of risk numbers. torsdag 24 oktober 13
  51. 51. An ideal: (Taleb) Anti-fragility ... failure in a system makes it more sturdy torsdag 24 oktober 13
  52. 52. Failure Trial & error Thus informative We learn from failures ... but are also (too) often chastened, even punished A vile word -- mustn’t we learn to love it? torsdag 24 oktober 13
  53. 53. Cont’d... build upon the learning effect avoid lethal accumulation of deviations respect human capabilities information overload interaction design thinking traps incl. thinking fast/slow success a great inspirer but lousy teacher: when you succeed you never know how close to failure you are/were torsdag 24 oktober 13
  54. 54. Dan Dennett: Intuition pumps Sometimes you don’t just want to risk making mistakes; you actually want to make them – Mistakes is key to progress. Of course there are cases when mistakes cannot be allowed – ask any surgeon or airline pilot. But there are also times when making mistakes is the only way to go…. I often I have to encourage students to cultivate the habit of making mistakes, the best learning opportunities of all. torsdag 24 oktober 13
  55. 55. Yogi Berra: When you come to a fork in the road... ... take it! torsdag 24 oktober 13