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State of the Film Industry Part 1

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This is the first part of the state of the film industry report. it covers how many filmmakers there are in the US, how many projects are made, and the total size of the market. For more, read the corresponding blog on ProductionNext.com

https://beta.productionnext.com/people/ben/journal/state-of-the-film-industry-report-part-1-overview

If you want to reference this data, feel free. Please credit Ben Yennie, ProductionNext, or Producer Foundry as your source. This data is considered creative commons, attribution.

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State of the Film Industry Part 1

  1. 1. Part 1: The Overall Landscape
  2. 2. How many Self Identified filmmakers are there? Film School Grads 14,096 New Filmmakers per Year 23,385 Avg Career life 8.5 Years Total Active Filmmakers 198,775 Age Group Total Male Female All 198,775 126,500 66,252 18-24 52,658 37,950 14,708 25-29 33,117 19,734 13,383 30-39 38,062 24,415 13,648 40-49 30,702 20,367 10,335 50+* 34,153 21,632 12,522 Opt out 3,807 2,151 1,656 *We did ask about age groups 50-59, 60-74, and 75+, but did not receive enough responses to merit individual grouping. **Graph not shown due to lack of data ***Opt outs Age Breakdown - All *** 2%50+ 18% 40-49 16% 30-39 20% 25-29 17% 18-24 27% Age Breakdown - Male 2%50+ 17% 40-49 16% 30-39 19% 25-29 16% 18-24 30% Age Breakdown - Female 3%50+ 19% 40-49 16% 30-39 21% 25-29 20% 18-24 22% Gender Breakdown Other** 1% Female 33% Male 64% ***
 2% *** *** Above Data Drawn from US Dept of Education data and later report sections.
  3. 3. Methodology: New Filmmakers • We Asked Asked filmmakers if they graduated from Film School • Cross Referenced with graduation data from the US department of education. • Referenced total graduates with the Percentage of active filmmakers who graduated, and then added percentage of filmmakers who did not graduate or had other education. X=New Filmmakers/Year Y=Film School Graduates from DoE Z=Film School Graduation Rate(%) X=Y*(1+(1-Z))
  4. 4. Methodology: Total market • Took the number of new filmmakers, then multiplied by an average career life of 8.5 years, as defined from data in section 2 of this report. • When calculating average career life, we removed filmmakers under 25 due to them not having time to have a career yet. • RESULT: Estimated 198,775 filmmakers currently active in the US.
  5. 5. Projects made annually Project Type Estimated Projects created annually Confidence Corporate/Industrial 127,216 to 133,179 95% Web/New Media 256,420 to 290,212 95% Shorts 111,314 to 127,216 85% TV Episodes 55,657 to 103,363 80% Indie Feature Films. 15,902 to 23,853 85% 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 Features TV Shorts Corporate Web/New Media Projects per filmmaker Annually 2.6-3.0 Project Breakdown by type 45% 22% 20% 10%3% Features TV Shorts Corporate Web/New Media
  6. 6. Methodology: Projects • Referenced total number of filmmakers to % of filmmakers who made projects in 2014 and how many they made. All numbers US only. Table 1.D - Survey Options and Min/Max Treatment for Estimates 1 2 3-4 5-7 8-10 11-14 15+ High 1 2 4 7 10 14 15 Low 1 2 3 5 8 11 15 Table 1.C - Control Project Max Max ProjectsCorporate/Industrial 15 Web/New Media 15 Shorts 3-4 TV 15 Indie Feature Films. 1 • Controlled for unreasonable numbers of projects claimed by a single participant. 
 Table 1.C
  7. 7. Methodology: Corporate • Total number of projects: 157,383 • Defined as Explainer Videos, Training videos, ETC. • Not Commercials • We feel like this is as accurate an estimate as exists • Hard to confirm total value of market, because most valuations include teleconferencing technologies
  8. 8. Methodology: Web • Total number of projects: 300,968 • Defined as Web exclusive video and content produced for platforms e.g. Youtube/Vimeo, not including trivial content e.g. cat videos and vlogs. • Given we’re only counting web content produced above the “trivial content” level, this estimate seems accurate.
  9. 9. Methodology: Shorts • Total Number of projects: 131,332 • Defined as shorts (<40 minutes) produced at film school thesis level or higher • Something that can and should be submitted to festivals • Controlled out anything more than 2 shorts in a year, due to logistical limitations from our criterion • Given restrictions, we feel like this is accurate • We estimate the budgets of these shorts to be $1k-$5k
  10. 10. Methodology: TV • Total number of projects: 66,227 • Defined as episodes produced outside of studio system, separate from Youtube-esque webseries. • Estimated cost per episode was $20,000 • This market is hard to define, and given lack of clarity in our questions we’re only 70% confident in our assumptions.
  11. 11. Methodology: Indie Features • Total number of projects: 18,895 to 28,343 • Defined as a feature film (>75 minutes) • Any budget level— documentary or narrative. Not necessarily distributed • Controlled out any response greater than one, primarily due to logistical limitations • We feel this is high, but possible given the possibility of making a feature film for 500 dollars or less
  12. 12. Total Market SpendProject Type Estimated Projects created annually (PL and PH) Confidence (C) Budget Low (BL) Budget High (BH) Estimated Market Size Corporate/Industrial 127,216 to 133,179 95% $5,000 $25,000 $1,855,316,156 Web/New Media 256,420 to 290,212 95% $1000 $2500 $454,387,227 Shorts 111,314 to 127,216 85% $1000 $5000 $304,125,750 TV Episodes 55,657 to 103,363 70% $7500 $25000 $904,426,250 Indie Feature Films. 15,902 to 23,853 90% $25000 $250000 $2,459,840,625 Project Type Annual Domestic Spending Corporate/Industrial 1.86 Bn Web/New Media 0.45 Bn Shorts 0.30 Bn TV Episodes 0.90 Bn Indie Feature Films 2.46 Bn Total 5.98 Bn Market Size Formula: MS=((PL*BH)/2)*((BL*BH)/2)*C 40% 35% 12% 8% 5% Shorts Web/New Media TV Episodes Corporate Indie Feature Films Spend (In BN) 0 0.75 1.5 2.25 3 4% 15% 19% 43% 20% INT: Market size by Projects
 EXT: Market size by Spend
  13. 13. Budget Methodology Full Range Estimate (USD) Range Used (USD) Reasoning Corporate Video/ Industrial 5,000- 100,000 5,000- 25,000 While corporate video does occasionally end up with very high budgets, these are outliers. Most budgets are small and produced by a startup or small business. Web/New Media 500- 5,000 1,000- 2,500 These aren’t cat videos, but they are made for the web without much monetization potential, so they’ve got to be careful with budgets. However, even though the shoots are simple, there are crew and logistical costs. Shorts 500 - 25,000 1,000- 5,000 Since these projects don’t generally have a way to make their money back, many filmmakers work on them for free. So even though these shorts often have more ambitious goals than their web counterparts, the budgets don’t balloon too much. TV Episodes 5,000- 50,000 5,000 - 20,000 These episodes are often produced without a network backing them, so they cut every corner they can. But the crew needs to be paid when you need to shoot an entire season of episodes. Indie Features 500 - 2,500,000 50,000 - 250,000 This category can be anything from a man with a camera shooting a feature alone to a few B List stars and a day from an A-lister shooting a festival-oriented drama. However, most independent films that get attention are made in the SAG Ultra Low Budget Range.
  14. 14. Disclaimer About Budgets • The budget numbers are speculative, and based around personal experience in the film industry as well as generalized data from other sources. • Project budget questions were intended to be a large part of the secondary survey • We still believe these to be the most data-backed market size estimates that exist

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