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Congres Sociaal Wonen 2030 dhr. E. Breunesse

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Congres Sociaal Wonen 2030 dhr. E. Breunesse

  1. 1. NEW LENSSCENARIOS LAUNCHA SHIFT IN PERSPECTIVEFOR A WORLD INTRANSITION
  2. 2. WHY DO WE DO SCENARIOS?Uncertainty and discontinuities are inevitable… The Present The Path The Future FORECAST
  3. 3. WHY DO WE DO SCENARIOS?Scenarios help us wrestle with possible futuresCurrent Realities Alternative Future(mental models) Multiple Paths Images SCENARIOS
  4. 4. WARNING: UNCERTAINTIES AHEADThis scenarios book contains forward-looking statements that may affect and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of suchShell‟s financial condition, results of operations, and businesses of Royal transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries andDutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal, andmay be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking regulatory developments including regulatory measuresstatements are statements of future expectations that are based on addressingclimate change; (k) economic and financial market conditionsmanagement‟s current expectations and assumptions and involve known in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks ofand unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts withresults, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval ofor implied in these statements. projects, and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; andForward-looking statements include, among other things, statements (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statementsconcerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks contained in this book are expressly qualified in their entirety by theand statements expressing management‟s cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readersexpectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections, and assumptions. should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royalphrases such as Dutch Shell‟s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2011 which is„„anticipate‟‟, „believe‟‟, „„could‟‟, „estimate‟‟, „„expect‟‟, „„goals‟‟, „„intend‟‟, „„ available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov.may‟‟, „objectives‟‟, „„outlook‟‟, „„plan‟‟, „„probably‟‟, „„project‟‟,„„risks‟‟, „„seek‟‟, „„should‟‟, „„target‟‟, „„will‟‟, and similar terms and phrases. These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of looking statement speaks only as of the date of this scenariosRoyal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from book, March 2013. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiariesthose expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlookingscenarios book, including (without limitation):(a) price fluctuations in statement as a result of new information, future events or othercrude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell‟s products; (c) information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially fromcurrency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;(e) reserves those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statementsestimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) contained in this scenarios book.environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with theidentification of suitable potential acquisition properties
  5. 5. JOURNEY Where we start from New Lenses –  Paradoxes & Pathways New Lens Scenarios –  Panoramas - Mountains & Oceans Comparisons & Contrasts What we are learning
  6. 6. WE ARE ENTERINGAN ERA OF VOLATILITY & TRANSITIONS Intensified economic Political & social Building a cycles instability „mini-lateral‟ world Demographic Challenged Emerging resources transitions- environmental – urbanisation boundaries tight/shale gas and liquid-rich shales
  7. 7. “ IF WE WANT THINGS TO STAY AS THEY ARE, THINGS WILL HAVE TO CHANGE.” GIUSEPPE TOMASI DI LAMPEDUSA The Leopard
  8. 8. PARADOXES & PATHWAYSThe Prosperity Paradox The Leadership Paradox The Connectivity Paradox Trapped Transition Room To Manoeuvre
  9. 9. MOUNTAINS OCEANS
  10. 10. MOUNTAINSA VIEW FROM THE TOP Influence concentrates amongst the already powerful, as advantage brings more advantage Economic development slowed by rigidities in structures and institutions However, some secondary policy developments facilitated
  11. 11. OCEANSA VIEW OF THE HORIZON Emerging interests intermittently accommodated Core reforms unleash growth – and expectations for further reform However, more empowered constituencies hinder some secondary policy advancement
  12. 12. WHAT ARE WE LEARNING?CONCLUDING REMARKS Value in considering longer time horizons & taking a broad view of drivers & interactions between markets, economics, & politics Scenarios have both positive and troubling features Multiple opportunities, but resource stresses complex and urgent Clean and Green important: Cleaner fossil fuels (with CCS) a backbone – with a revolution in renewable energy as well Technology deployment important… But political, policy and societal choices and timing are as influential as resources and technology Innovative cross-boundary collaborations are key to success
  13. 13. QUESTIONS& ANSWERS

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