World Cup Qualification Prediction - How to use it

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Those slides describe how using the web application available on http://worldcup.bayesialab.com. This application used Bayesian networks to compute the Stage 2 qualification probabilities of any team of any Group of the next FIFA World Cup. To compute these probabilities, the user has just to define his/her belief with probabilities on match results (win, draw, and loss).

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World Cup Qualification Prediction - How to use it

  1. 1. If the Match France versus Uruguay is a Draw and if Mexico wins versus South Africa, and if .... ... and if .... Then France can be Qualified for Stage 2
  2. 2. Those Endless Scenarios are Over Enter your prediction in terms of Probabilities on the matches‘ results “In my opinion, there is a 60% chance that the match Uruguay vs France ends with a Draw, 25% that France wins, and then, 15% that Uruguay wins” BAYESIA will handle your predictions and will give you the exact Team qualification probabilities
  3. 3. A T to Compute the ool Qualification Probabilities for Fifa World Cup Stage 2
  4. 4. Click here to select the Group you want to evaluate. The selected The first match of France group appears in red is against Uruguay, on June 11
  5. 5. The Sliders allow entering the probabilities of each result. Here, we assess a 60% chance for Draw As probabilities have to sum up to 100, increasing the Draw’s probability automatically reduces the probabilities of France and Uruguay to win the match
  6. 6. Checking this box allows fixing the Draw’s probability It is then possible to enter the probability that France (or Uruguay) wins without modifying the probability associated to Draw. We define here a 25% chance that France wins
  7. 7. The screenshot below describes the probability we assessed for the Group A’ Matches
  8. 8. In our assessments, the lowest probability is 5%, the probability corresponding to a Draw for South Africa vs Mexico We then belief that a Draw is very unlikely, without fully excluding it If we imagine 100 matches exactly played in the same conditions, we then belief that only 5 will end as a Draw, 60 will be a Mexican win, and 35 a South African win
  9. 9. Once satisfied with your assessments, you just have to click on Validation to execute the Qualification Probabilities Computation
  10. 10. This Chart depicts the exact results of the Computation of the Qualification Probabilities based on the Matches Probabilities you have previously entered With our assessments, we get a 77% chance that France will be qualified for Stage 2, 45% for Uruguay, 44% for Mexico and 34% for South Africa
  11. 11. We wish you pleasant simulations ... and a great World Cup http://worldcup.bayesialab.com

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