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Bay Area Economic Profile Chapter 1

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These exhibits from the first chapter of the 10th Bay Area Economic Profile, published in 2018, lay out the top-level economic data on the robust and highly-productive regional economy.

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Bay Area Economic Profile Chapter 1

  1. 1. www.bayareaeconomy.org 4,897 3,737 2,809 2,678 2,243 2,150 2,096 1,938 1,838 1,501 1,359 1,304 1,261 869 854 822 748 686 610 580 531 525 523 South Korea United Kingdom Germany Canada Russia Brazil Spain France India Australia Italy Argentina Saudi Arabia Switzerland Bay Area Taiwan Indonesia Netherlands Poland Turkey Sweden 9,181 16,768 Japan United States China Mexico 2017 Nominal GDP $ Billion Real GDP CAGR 2014–2017, % 4.3 2.5 1.2 1.8 2.2 6.8 1.2 2.0 1.9 7.3 1.3 -2.2 1.1 -0.5 2.9 2.4 3.3 2.3 5.0 4.9 1.6 1.0 1.6 3.3 3.5 #19 Rank in 2014 Rank 21 18 20 11 1 2 3 4 5 10 6 7 8 9 13 12 14 15 17 16 19 24 27 23 25 Notes: The Bay Area is defined as the combined San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Napa, Santa Rosa, and Vallejo- Fairfield MSAs. The 21-county Northern California Megaregion would have the 16th largest economy at $952 billion. Sources: Global Insight, BEA Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute and McKinsey & Company If it were a country, the Bay Area would be the 19th largest economy in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $748 billion. EXHIBIT 1
  2. 2. www.bayareaeconomy.org The Bay Area’s GDP growth has dramatically outpaced that of the U.S. in the post-recession years; the Bay Area GDP has historically grown faster than the U.S. GDP, but employment has only recently ramped up. 185 170 165 160 200 195 180 175 155 150 190 145 120 110 140 125 90 105 100 95 135 115 85 130 U.S. 201720071997 Bay Area 115 105 110 90 100 85 95 135 125 120 150 145 140 130 2017 U.S. Bay Area 20071997 Bay Area Compared toU.S. GDP Through Dec. 2017 Indexed to 100 (1997 benchmark) Bay Area Compared toU.S. Employment Through Dec. 2017 Indexed to 100 (1997 benchmark) Note: The Bay Area is defined as the combined San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Napa, Santa Rosa, and Vallejo-Fairfield MSAs. Sources: BLS, BEA, Moody’s Analytics Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute and McKinsey & Company EXHIBIT 2
  3. 3. www.bayareaeconomy.org The Bay Area leads in GDP per capita and has significantly outperformed its peer regions in terms of GDP per capita growth over the last three years. 3.5 4.5 3.0 4.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 5.0 5.5 60,0000 80,00055,000 0 65,000 2.0 1.0 75,00070,000 Los Angeles Bay Area Seattle San Diego New York United States Dallas Boston Austin Houston Atlanta GDP Per Capita, 2017 ($ GDP by Total Population) Productivity Growth GDP Per Capita Growth, 2014–2017 CAGR % MSA GDP $ Millions U.S. GDP $ Billions Sources: BEA, Moody’s Analytics Economy.com Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute and McKinsey & Company EXHIBIT 3
  4. 4. www.bayareaeconomy.org The Bay Area economy’s growth over the last 10 years has been led by sectors with high productivity gains. 2007–2017 Share of Job Growth, %Bay Area Sector 2017 Total Employment Thousands 2007–2017 Sector Productivity Growth, CAGR % 26 25 17 14 3Other Administration & Waste Healthcare 3 2 Accomodation & Food Arts & Recreation Transportation & Warehousing 100 4 Education 6 68 2,117 3,891 101 184 481 213 365 107 455 4.6 2.1 -0.9 1.8 -0.3 1.6 -0.9 -0.5 1.0 0.4 Total Professional & Scientific Information Note: The Bay Area is defined as the combined San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Napa, Santa Rosa, and Vallejo-Fairfield MSAs. Sources: Moody’s Analytics, BEA, BLS Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute and McKinsey & Company EXHIBIT 4
  5. 5. www.bayareaeconomy.org The Bay Area population continues to be one of the most educated compared to other U.S. peer regions. 48 2008 2010 44 42 40 38 20142006 46 0 30 34 36 32 28 2012 2016 US Average San Diego Los Angeles New York Houston Dallas Boston Austin Atlanta Seattle Bay Area 29 27 25 23 22Los Angeles New York San Jose San Francisco Boston Bay Area Educational Attainment Compared to Peer Regions Percent w/Bachelor’s Degree Age 25+ Percent of Those with a Bachelor’s Degree Born in Home State, 2016 Note: The Bay Area is defined as the combined San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Napa, Santa Rosa, and Vallejo- Fairfield MSAs. Sources: Moody’s Analytics, American Community Survey Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute and McKinsey Company EXHIBIT 5
  6. 6. www.bayareaeconomy.org The Bay Area produces some of the most entrepreneurial undergraduates in the world. 844 1,127 582 721 600 689 788 907 506 1,089 666 750 957 460 614 551 780 961 712 486 17.1 5.9 14.8 9.4 13.9 21.9 16.1 6.7 6.3 22.61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 Stanford UC Berkeley MIT Harvard University of Pennsylvania Cornell University of Michigan Tel Aviv University University of Illinois 9 344 666 441 405 445 1,203 437 455 247 802 232 314 368 417 406 716 384 585 410 1,086 5.7 4.0 5.2 5.5 7.8 5.5 7.8 18.3 28.2 16.0 Entrepreneur Count, # Entrepreneur Count, # Company Count, # Company Count, # Capital Raised $ Billions Capital Raised $ BillionsMBA Ranking2017 UndergraduateRanking 2017 Snap; Solyndra; Guardant Health; Opendoor; Sunru Cloudera; Zynga; Auris SurgicalRobotics; Machine Zone; Sapphire Energy Oscar; Dropbox ; Human Longevity; Gilt; Humacyte Coupang; Cloudera; BabyTree; Zenefits; Peloton Snapdeal; Zynga; Fuze; Flatiron Health; EVA Automation Lyft; Moderna; Adaptive Biotechnologies; Just; Wayfair Groupon; Medalla; Twilio; 23andMe; Altiostar Casper Sleep; Zalora; Apollo Endosurgery; Jounce Therapeutics; HotelTonight Houzz; Trax Image Recognition; Zerto; IronSource; Kaltura Avant; Affirm; ZocDoc; Desktop Metal; CRISPR Therapeutics Venture Capital Backed Companies Grab; Zynga; Oscar; BabyTree;Jet SoFi; Sea; Funding Circle; Fab; Sunrun Flipkart; Dianping.com; Jet; Deliveroo; Adaptive Biotechnologies Houzz; BlaBlaCar; MongoDB; Gilt; Apttus Lazada Group; Westwing Home Living; Kaminario; Fastly; Nubank Vroom; Betterment; ZocDoc; Compass; Castlight Health Rocket Internet; Lazada Group; HelloFresh; Foodpanda; Storm8 Sapphire Energy; Juno Therapeutics;EVA Automation; Zalora; Cell Medica 51credit; Netskope; RetailNext; Renew Financial; QuantumScape Radiology Partners; One Kings Lane; Future Finance; The Honest Company; Fulcrum BioEnergy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 Harvard Stanford Universityof Pennsylvania INSEAD Northwestern University Columbia University MIT Universityof Chicago UC Berkeley UCLA University of Texas Venture Capital Backed Companies Note: Ranking is based on analysis of 2009–“current date” data on the education level of founder(s) of VC backed companies. Source: Pitchbook 2017 report Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute and McKinsey Company EXHIBIT 6
  7. 7. www.bayareaeconomy.org The Bay Area far outpaces its peers in patents issued, producing 17% of all patents issued in the U.S. during 2015. Total Patents Issued, 2015 Patents Per Million Inhabitants,2015 Percent Share of U.S. patents,2015 24,350 Los Angeles San Diego New York Boston 3,909 Seattle 5,949 4,739 6,476 7,754 Chicago 5,460 1,271 1,248 1,659 410 3,683 385 488 5.5% 4.6% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.8% 17.3%Bay Area Notes: Bay Area includes data only for the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward MSAs. All listed regions other than Bay Area include full MSA data, not just data for the stated city. Sources: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, U.S. Census Bureau Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute and McKinsey Company EXHIBIT 7
  8. 8. www.bayareaeconomy.org Median wages are substantially higher in the Bay Area than in peer regions. Median Wages, 2017 $38,600 $38,000 $52,100 $50,300 $43,800 $39,800 $39,000 $45,900 $48,900 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Atlanta Austin Houston Los Angeles Denver New York Seattle Boston Bay Area Source: U.S. Census Bureau, BLS Occupational Employment Statistics by Metropolitan Area Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute and McKinsey Company EXHIBIT 8
  9. 9. www.bayareaeconomy.org In 2014, Bay-Area-headquartered companies had more than 600,000 employees located within California but outside of the region, and more than 100,000 employees in each of six other states. Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute EXHIBIT 9

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