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umfrage_konjunktur_wirtschaftspolitik_2019-09-23_

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Deutschland am Rande der Rezession - wie geht es weiter? - Herbstumfrage Konjunktur und Wirtschaftspolitik des Bankenverbands-Ausschusses für Wirtschafts- und Währungspolitik

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umfrage_konjunktur_wirtschaftspolitik_2019-09-23_

  1. 1. Banken PACKED LUNCH Ergebnisse der Umfrage „Konjunktur und Wirtschaftspolitik“ Berlin, 23. September 2019 Deutschland am Rande der Rezession – wie geht´s weiter?
  2. 2. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Ausschuss für Wirtschafts- und Währungspolitik Stefan Schneider Chief German Economist, Head of Strategic Research, DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELL- SCHAFT, Frankfurt am Main - Vorsitzender - Burkhard Allgeier Chief Investment Officer, H&A Global Investment Management GmbH, Frankfurt am Main Dr. Marco Bargel Chefinvestmentstratege Postbank, DB Privat- und Firmenkundenbank AG, Bonn Dr. Klaus Bauknecht Chefvolkswirt, IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, Düsseldorf Dr. Jan Bottermann Chefvolkswirt, NATIONAL-BANK Aktiengesellschaft, Essen Carsten Brzeski Chefvolkswirt, ING-DiBa AG, Frankfurt am Main Dr. Felix Hüfner Chefvolkswirt Deutschland, UBS Europe SE, Frankfurt am Main Carsten Klude Chefvolkswirt, M.M. Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Hamburg Dr. Jörg Krämer Chefvolkswirt, COMMERZBANK Aktiengesellschaft, Frankfurt am Main Dr. Andreas Rees Chefvolkswirt Deutschland, UniCredit Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main Stefan Schilbe Chefvolkswirt, HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf Dr. Holger Schmieding Chefvolkswirt, Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, London Dr. Dirk Schumacher Senior European Economist and Managing Director, NATIXIS Zweigniederlassung Deutschland, Frankfurt am Main Geschäftsführung: Dr. Christian Ossig Hauptgeschäftsführer, Bundesverband deutscher Banken e.V., Berlin Markus Becker-Melching Mitglied der Geschäftsführung, Stab der Hauptgeschäftsführung, Politik, Internationale Beziehungen, Wirtschaft, Bundesverband deutscher Banken e.V., Berlin
  3. 3. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Weltwirtschaftliches Umfeld 3 Bremsspuren werden deutlicher und länger 2020: Bodenbildung  US-Wirtschaft stabilisiert sich  Risiken flauen ab Kurzfristig: keine Besserung  Belebung in den Schwellenländern  Handelskonflikte - Direkte Auswirkungen (insb. in China) - Störung globaler Produktions-/Lieferketten - Unsicherheit/Investitionszurückhaltung  Geopolitische Risiken u. a. Naher Osten, Hongkong  Länderspezifische Risiken u. a. Argentinien, Brasilien, Türkei
  4. 4. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Konjunktur im Euro-Raum 4  Externe Belastungen schlagen besonders stark durch  Zudem: nach wie vor schwaches Potenzial- wachstum  2019: Wirtschaftswachstum schwächt sich deutlich ab (Halbierung ggü. Vorjahr)  Arbeitslosigkeit sinkt weiter Befund  Binnenkonjunktur stützt die Konjunktur Ausblick  2020: Wachstum verharrt auf niedrigem Niveau
  5. 5. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Preisentwicklung bleibt moderat 5  Strukturelle Faktoren  Kerninflation wird sich nur sehr langsam nach oben arbeiten  Ernste Deflationssorgen nirgends zu erkennen (auch nicht in Japan!) Prognose Inflationsrate Kerninflation 2019: 1,3 % 2020: 1,3 % 2019: 1,0 % 2020: 1,2 %
  6. 6. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Konjunktur in Deutschland 6 Am Tropf der Weltwirtschaft Deutsche Industrie in der Rezession 2020: Bodenbildung der Weltwirtschaft verhindert weitere Talfahrt    Privater Konsum vergleichsweise robust Sparquote in letzten fünf Jahren gestiegen Moderate Inflation hilft Positive Arbeitsmarkteffekte lassen nach    
  7. 7. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Sparquote 7 Mit 11 % höchster Stand seit 1995 (11,4 %) Prognose: leichter Anstieg in 2019 und 2020   Zahl der Arbeitslosen könnte 2020 steigen Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt aber auf vergleichsweise niedrigem Niveau Und: Beschäftigung nimmt noch leicht zu   Arbeitslosigkeit 
  8. 8. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Ausrüstungsinvestitionen 8 Schwache Investitionsentwicklung Häufige Erklärung: Unsicherheiten Offenbar aber auch strukturelle Faktoren    Vergangenheit: In Boomphasen auch zweistellige Zuwachsraten Letzten Jahre: Keine starke Dynamik (trotz gutem BIP-Wachstum)  
  9. 9. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Geldpolitik der EZB 9 Gefangen im geldpolitischen Krisenmodus Public Sector Purchase Programme (Nettokäufe von März 2015 – Dezember 2018)PSPP
  10. 10. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. (1) Aktuell keine krisenhafte Wirtschaftsentwicklung; keine Deflationsrisiken (2) Jüngstes Maßnahmenpaket  allenfalls geringe positive Effekte Risiken und Nebenwirkungen nehmen deutlich zu Geldpolitik der EZB 10 (4) Geschäftsmöglichkeiten/Ertragslage der Banken wird geschwächt  langfristig geringere Kreditvergabe- möglichkeiten (3) Zielmarke (unter, aber nahe 2 %) zu eng ausgelegt
  11. 11. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Was tun? 11 Negativzinsen dürfen kein Dauerzustand werden Zielmarke nicht zu eng auslegen; strukturelle Änderung der Rahmenbedingungen beachten und erläutern Perspektive für Ausstieg aus dem geldpolitischen Krisenmodus Effiziente Geldpolitik braucht profitable Banken   
  12. 12. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Ausschuss für Wirtschafts- und Währungspolitik Stefan Schneider Chief German Economist, Head of Strategic Research, DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELL- SCHAFT, Frankfurt am Main - Vorsitzender - Burkhard Allgeier Chief Investment Officer, H&A Global Investment Management GmbH, Frankfurt am Main Dr. Marco Bargel Chefinvestmentstratege Postbank, DB Privat- und Firmenkundenbank AG, Bonn Dr. Klaus Bauknecht Chefvolkswirt, IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, Düsseldorf Dr. Jan Bottermann Chefvolkswirt, NATIONAL-BANK Aktiengesellschaft, Essen Carsten Brzeski Chefvolkswirt, ING-DiBa AG, Frankfurt am Main Dr. Felix Hüfner Chefvolkswirt Deutschland, UBS Europe SE, Frankfurt am Main Carsten Klude Chefvolkswirt, M.M. Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Hamburg Dr. Jörg Krämer Chefvolkswirt, COMMERZBANK Aktiengesellschaft, Frankfurt am Main Dr. Andreas Rees Chefvolkswirt Deutschland, UniCredit Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main Stefan Schilbe Chefvolkswirt, HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf Dr. Holger Schmieding Chefvolkswirt, Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, London Dr. Dirk Schumacher Senior European Economist and Managing Director, NATIXIS Zweigniederlassung Deutschland, Frankfurt am Main Geschäftsführung: Dr. Christian Ossig Hauptgeschäftsführer, Bundesverband deutscher Banken e.V., Berlin Markus Becker-Melching Mitglied der Geschäftsführung, Stab der Hauptgeschäftsführung, Politik, Internationale Beziehungen, Wirtschaft, Bundesverband deutscher Banken e.V., Berlin
  13. 13. ©BundesverbanddeutscherBankene.V. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit Bundesverband deutscher Banken

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