Technical analysis of equity shares project report

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Technical analysis of equity shares project report

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Technical analysis of equity shares project report

  1. 1. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________ EXECUTIVE SUMMARYIndia is second fastest growing major economy in the world, with a GDPgrowth rate of 9.4%. It has emerged as the worlds fastest growing wealthcreator, thanks to a buoyant stock market and higher earnings The name “stock market” which when comes into the mind,everyone has different opinion. One feels it is risky to invest in stock market,others may perceive that it is game of gambling. Many of the investors mayfeel its great opportunity to make profit in the stock market. The opiniondiffers from person to person, investor to investors. But the recent trend in the stock regarding its volatility which leadsto the depression and also losses for many investors. If when the investors askhim self about why did the stock market behaved in this way; the factor maybe many. One has to develop a bird’s view over the stock market and analyzeevery factor with tools and technique so that he/she may not go wrong in theinvestment decision. One of the tools may be technical analysis which helps to study themarket action, primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose offorecasting future price trends. The movement of the scrip price and itsbehavior can be explained in a more illustrative form by using the technicalanalysis. It provides better insight and also to take decision on the investment.It considers only the actual price behavior of the market or instrument. The project deals with a brief introduction to stock market &technical analysis how to invest in stock market as the investors are moreconcerned of return and they want to be far from risk, technical analysis isvery helpful in deciding as when to buy & sell a particular stock. The core area of this project focuses on technical analysis of equityscripts which tells an investor when to buy & sell a share. This project____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 1
  2. 2. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________contains secondary data & calculations with charts which help in drawinginferences. The major concurrent project was carried out in “IL & FSINVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD”, set up in October 1997 & began itsretail operations on September 1998 which is one of the leading servicebrokerage houses in the country.TITLE OF THE PROJECT: “TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF EQUITYSHARES”OBJECTIVES:To study future prices of Infosys, Wipro, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank usingtechnical analysis.SUB OBJECTIVES: • To determine the trend of the stock prices using technical analysis. • To analyze & predict future price movements of chosen equity shares. • To find out which equity share is preferable for the investors i.e., when to buy & when to sell a particular stock.METHODOLOGY:Statistical Tools used • Simple Moving Average • Relative Strength Index • Rate of ChangeSecondary Data includes • Market Price • Books • Internet Sources.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 2
  3. 3. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________FINDINGS: • The share prices of a company are very sensitive and may change very rapidly (upward or downward), but we follow a systematic study, it is possible to predict the share prices to a certain extent. • The stocks move according to some patterns, we can predict the stock prices by identifying such patterns.HDFC BANK • As the 12 days & 24 days simple moving average of the HDFC Bank represents the fall of prices that is downward trend during August & January it signs for sell signal. • The chart shows rising trend from August to December. • Relative strength index shows a buy signal for the HDFC Bank as it has crossed 30 & reached upto zero during May & February. • It shows sell signal during September as it has reached upto 84 points. • The ROC graph indicates that the price of the scrip HDFC Bank is moving towards the high in the over bought region. • The chart shows reverse head & shoulder during June.ICICI BANK • As the 12 days & 24 days simple moving average of the ICICI Bank is falling during July & January, short term moving average intersects long term moving average from above and falls below it, the sell signal is generated. • The scrip price is rising from September 5, the short term average is above the long term average & intersects from below indicating further rise in price, gives a buy signal during September. • The RSI graph indicates it is the right time to purchase the scripts of ICICI Bank, as it has crossed 30 points & reached zero during April & March.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 3
  4. 4. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________ • It indicates sell signal during November as it has reached upto 98 points. • The ROC graph of the ICICI Bank scripts prices are in the oversold region that is it is towards the lower price & right time to buy. • The chart shows H & S during June & double bottom during August.INFOSYS • The moving average graph of the INFOSYS indicates a gaining trend as the closing price line is above the moving average line of 12 days and 26 days so it was right time to sell the share. • The closing price of INFOSYS shows a flat trend from April to August. • Reverse head & shoulder are formed during November. • The relative strength index of Infosys has crossed 30 points and reached upto zero during November & January, shows it was right time to sell & it reached upto 90 points during December which gives buy signal. • ROC of INFOSYS is in overbought region during October, December & March it was right time to sell. WIPRO • The 12 days & 24 days simple moving average of the ICICI Bank is falling during November, January & March short term moving average intersects long term moving average from above and falls below it, the sell signal was generated. • The chart shows declining trend from April to September & even from December to March. • The Relative strength Index graph indicates that it is the right time to purchase the scripts of WIPRO, as it has crossed 30 points during July, January & February.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 4
  5. 5. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________ • RSI of WIPRO shows sell signal during December which has reached upto 84 points. • The Rate of Change chart of the WIPRO shows the script prices are in the overbought region during March that is it is towards the higher price & was right time to sell.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 5
  6. 6. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________RECOMMENDATIONS: • Investors should undertake an analysis before investing into the stock market, as most of the investors do not undertake any study before entering into a particular stock.HDFC BANKConsidering technical analysis it is better to sell the shares of HDFC Bank atthis moment. • According to moving average the closing price is declining from January i.ie. 1571 to 1331, the short term average intersects the long term average from above & falls below it, the sell signal is generated. • The ROC lies in the overbought region which is declining from 16.90 to 4.61 in future it may decline so better to sell the shares. • The RSI of HDFC Bank lies between 70 & 50 which may decline in future so I recommend investors to sell the shares.ICICI BANK • The closing price of this script is declining from 11th January with 1430 to 769 in March; the short term average intersects the long term average from above & falls below it, so in future I recommend the investors to sell the shares. • The ROC lies in the overbought region which is declining from 9.82 to 0.16 in future it may decline so better to sell the shares. • The RSI of these scripts lies between 60 & 50 which may decline in future so better to sell the shares.INFOSYS • The moving average of Infosys is volatile in nature and it has decreased from 1662 of February to 1439 of March, the short term average intersects the long term average from above & falls below it, the sell signal is generated. • The ROC lies in the overbought region which is declining from 15.72 to 7.16 in future it may decline so better to sell the shares.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 6
  7. 7. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________ • The RSI of INFOSYS is declining from 60 to 43 which may decline drastically in future so better to sell the shares.WIPRO • The moving average of Wipro has decreased from 549 of January to 432 of March; the short term average intersects the long term average from above & falls below it, so better to sell the shares. • The ROC lies in the overbought region which is declining from 26.22 to 14.19 in future it may decline so better to sell the shares. • The RSI of INFOSYS is declining from 70 to 58 which may decline drastically in future so better to sell the shares.LIMITATIONS: • For doing my project I have taken into consider only three parameters. These parameters may not be enough to predict the future price movements. • Time period given is of only two months, which may not suffice the required tenure to study the stock market. The time period was very short. • I have done the technical analysis only for one year; from this data we cannot predict prices accurately.CONCLUSION: • Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction don’t make a second unless the first shows you a profit. • There is only one side to the stock market and it is not the bull side or the bear side but the right side. • Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you profit. • Technical analysis can be used, when to buy and to when to sell the stock. • It is very helpful in determining the trend of the stock price____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 7
  8. 8. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________CONTENTSSECTION – I • Industry Profile 1 • Company Profile 3SECTION – II • About Technical Analysis 5 • Brief Introduction of Companies 14SECTION – III • Methodology 16 • Calculations 20 • Data Interpretation &Analysis 78 • Findings 98 • Recommendations 101 • Limitations • Conclusions • Bibliography____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 8
  9. 9. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________INDUSTRY PROFILEIn finance a share is a unit of account for various financial instrumentsincluding stocks, mutual funds, and limited partnerships. In British English,the usage of the word share alone to refer solely to stocks is so common that italmost replaces the word stock itself. In simple Words, a share or stock is a document issued by a company,which entitles its holder to be one of the owners of the company. A share isissued by a company or can be purchased from the stock market. By owning a share you can earn a portion and selling shares you getcapital gain. So, your return is the dividend plus the capital gain. However,you also run a risk of making a capital loss if you have sold the share at a pricebelow your buying price.Primary Market Market for new issues of securities, as distinguished from theSecondary Market, where previously issued securities are bought and sold.A market is primary if the proceeds of sales go to the issuer of the securitiessold.Secondary Market The market where securities are traded after they are initially offered inthe primary market. Most trading is done in the secondary market. To explainfurther, it is trading in previously issued financial instruments. An organizedmarket for used securities. Examples are the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE),National Stock Exchange NSE, bond markets, over-the-counter markets,residential mortgage loans, governmental guaranteed loans etc.Bull & Bear Market There are two classic market types used to characterize the generaldirection of the market. Bull markets are when the market is generally rising,typically the result of a strong economy. A bull market is typified by generally____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 9
  10. 10. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________rising stock prices, high economic growth, and strong investor confidence inthe economy. Bear markets are the opposite. A bear market is typified byfalling stock prices, bad economic news, and low investor confidence in theeconomy. A bull market is a financial market where prices of instruments (e.g.,stocks) are, on average, trending higher. The bull market tends to beassociated with rising investor confidence and expectations of further capitalgains. A market in which prices are rising. A market participant who believesprices will move higher is called a "bull". A news item is considered bullish ifit is expected to result in higher prices. Simply put, bull markets are movements in the stock market in whichprices are rising and the consensus is that prices will continue moving upward.During this time, economic production is high, jobs are plentiful and inflationis low. Bear markets are the opposite--stock prices are falling, and the view isthat they will continue falling. A key to successful investing during a bull market is to take advantageof the rising prices. For most, this means buying securities early, watchingthem rise in value and then selling them when they reach a high. However, assimple as it sounds, this practice involves timing the market. Since no oneknows exactly when the market will begin its climb or reach its peak, virtuallyno one can time the market perfectly. The opposite of a bull market is a bear market when prices are falling ina financial market for a prolonged period of time. A bear market tends to beaccompanied by widespread pessimism. A bear market is slang for when stockprices have decreased for an extended period of time. If an investor is"bearish" they are referred to as a bear because they believe a particularcompany, industry, sector, or market in general is going to go down.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 10
  11. 11. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________COMPANY PROFILEIL&FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD (IIL) is an initiative in thefield of Financial Services started by Infrastructure Leasing & FinancialServices (IL&FS), an institution known for its innovative and pioneeringinitiatives in the areas of Infrastructure, Corporate Finance and InvestmentBanking. IIL was set up in October 1997 & began its retail operations onSeptember 1998. IL&FS Investsmart Securities LTD (IIL) was set up with the objectiveof becoming one of the leading full service brokerage houses in the countrywith a strong expertise in web-based technology as well as strengths inphysical distribution. Today with a presence in more than 90 cities acrossIndia through more than 200 outlets, IIL is chosen as The Best PerformingNational Financial Advisor – Retail Segment at the CNBC TV 18 nationalfinancial advisor award 2006. Since its inception in the year 1997, the firm has grown to reachimmense heights. It has withstood all odds in the market and has emerged as atrue leader in the bargain. IIL is widely recognized as a trustworthyorganization and has been successful in satisfying its clients’ interests. A bigsmile with great satisfaction on the faces of clients inspires us to work evenharder, not only to maintain the same but also to deliver the best servicesforever. As mentioned earlier IIL which was promoted by IL&FS in 1997, hascome a long way since its inception. It is a matter of great pride for IIL thatsome of the worlds biggest organizations are becoming equity owners of thecompany. IL&FS Investsmart Securities LTD currently caters to more than53,000 retail customers through 54 locations encompassing around 16 Indianstates. Our network involves 29 branches spread across 16 cities and____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 11
  12. 12. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________franchisees across the rest of the country. It is our endeavor to spread ourservices to maximum number of Indian locations in the near future.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 12
  13. 13. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________DIVISIONS • The Investment Advisory and Broking Division • Merchant Banking Division • The Project Syndication Division • Institutional Equity Broking Division • Institutional Debt Broking divisionRETAIL OFFERINGS • Equities • Derivatives • Commodities • Depository Services • Portfolio Management • Distribution of Financial Products.INSTITUTIONAL OFFERINGS • Merchant Banking • Product Syndication • Institutional Equity Broking and Sales • Institutional Debt Broking and SalesMEASURES PLANNED TO SUSTAIN THE GROWTH ENGINE • Complete business restructuring • Increase Margin Portfolio book to Rs. 7.5 bn • Accelerate branch expansion through setup of mini branches • Strong focus on building new businesses : commodities, online trading • Launch international operations in Singapore. Complete Dubai approvals.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 13
  14. 14. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________TECHNICAL ANALYSISTechnical analysis is the examination of past price movements to theforecast future price movements. Technical analysts are sometimes referredto as chartists because they rely almost exclusively on charts for theiranalysis. Analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks andmarkets are indications of future performance.Technical analysis is applicable to stocks, indices, commodities, futures orany tradable instrument where the price is influenced by the forces of supplyand demand. Price refers to any combination of the open, high, low or closefor a given security over a specific timeframe. The time frame can be basedon intraday (tick, 5-minute, 15-minute or hourly), daily, weekly or monthlyprice data and last a few hours or many years. In addition, some technicalanalysts include volume or open interest figures with their study of priceaction.ASSUMPTIONS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSISThree key assumptions on which technical analysis is based are:-The futures market discounts everything: - The technician believes thatthe price at any given time is the intrinsic value based upon the fundamentalfactors affecting the supply and demand of the product.Prices move in trends - Prices can move in one of three directions up, downor sideways. Once a trend in any of these directions is in effect, it usuallywill persist. The market trend is simply the direction of market prices, aconcept which is absolutely essential to the success of technical analysis.History repeats itself - Technical analysis includes thee psychology of themarket place. Patterns of human behaviors have been identified andcategorized for several hundred years and are found to be repetitive innature. The repetitive nature of the market place is illustrated by specificchart patterns, from which one can forecast the next move for the prices.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 14
  15. 15. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________CHART PATTERNA chart pattern is a distinct formation on a stock chart that creates a tradingsignal, or a sign of future price movements. Chartists use these patterns toidentify current trends and trend reversals and to trigger buy and sell signals.There are two types of patterns within this area of technicalanalysis, reversal and continuation. A reversal pattern signals that a priortrend will reverse upon completion of the pattern. A continuation pattern, onthe other hand, signals that a trend will continue once the pattern iscomplete. These patterns can be found over charts of any time frame.HEAD AND SHOULDERSThis is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technicalanalysis. Head and shoulders is a reversal chart pattern that when formed,signals that the security is likely to move against the previous trend. As youcan see in Figure 1, there are two versions of the head and shoulders chartpattern. Head and shoulders top (shown on the left) is a chart pattern that isformed at the high of an upward movement and signals that the upward trendis about to end. Head and shoulders bottom, also known as inverse head andshoulders (shown on the right) is the lesser known of the two, but is used tosignal a reversal in a downtrend.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 15
  16. 16. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________Both of these head and shoulders patterns are similar in that there are fourmain parts: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. Also, each individual head____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 16
  17. 17. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________and shoulder is comprised of a high and a low. For example, in the head andshoulders top image shown on the left side in Figure 1, the left shoulder ismade up of a high followed by a low. In this pattern, the neckline is a levelof support or resistance. Remember that an upward trend is a period ofsuccessive rising highs and rising lows. The head and shoulders chartpattern, therefore, illustrates a weakening in a trend by showing thedeterioration in the successive movements of the highs and lows.CHART TYPESThere are four main types of charts that are used by investors and tradersdepending on the information that they are seeking and their individual skilllevels. The chart types are: the line chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chartand the point and figure chart.LINE CHARTThe most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents onlythe closing prices over a set period of time. The line is formed by connectingthe closing prices over the time frame. Line charts do not provide visualinformation of the trading range for the individual points such as the high,low and opening prices. However, the closing price is often considered to bethe most important price in stock data compared to the high and low for theday and this is why it is the only value used in line charts.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 17
  18. 18. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________ Figure 1: A line chartBAR CHARTThe bar chart expands on the line chart by adding several more key pieces ofinformation to each data point. The chart is made up of a series of verticallines that represent each data point. This vertical line represents the high andlow for the trading period, along with the closing price. The close and openare represented on the vertical line by a horizontal dash. Conversely, the close is represented by the dash on the right.Generally, if the left dash (open) is lower than the right dash (close) then thebar will be shaded black, representing an up period for the stock, whichmeans it has gained value. A bar that is colored red signals that the stock hasgone down in value over that period.Figure 2: A bar chartCANDLESTICK CHARTThe candlestick chart is similar to a bar chart, but it differs in the way that itis visually constructed. Similar to the bar chart, the candlestick also has athin vertical line showing the periods trading range. The difference comes inthe formation of a wide bar on the vertical line, which illustrates thedifference between the open and close.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 18
  19. 19. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________And, like bar charts, candlesticks also rely heavily on the use of colors toexplain what has happened during the trading period. A major problem withthe candlestick color configuration, however, is that different sites usedifferent standards; therefore, it is important to understand the candlestickconfiguration used at the chart site you are working with. There are two color constructs for days up and one for days thatthe price falls. When the price of the stock is up and closes above theopening trade, the candlestick will usually be white or clear. If the stock hastraded down for the period, then the candlestick will usually be red or black,depending on the site. If the stocks price has closed above the previousday’s close but below the days open, the candlestick will be black or filledwith the color that is used to indicate an up day. Figure 3: A candlestick chartPOINT AND FOGURE CHARTThe point and figure chart is not well known or used by the average investorbut it has had a long history of use dating back to the first technical traders.This type of chart reflects price movements and is not as concerned abouttime and volume in the formulation of the points. The point and figure chartremoves the noise, or insignificant price movements, in the stock, which can____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 19
  20. 20. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________distort traders views of the price trends. These types of charts also try toneutralize the skewing effect that time has on chart analysis. Figure 4: A point and figure chartWhen first looking at a point and figure chart, you will notice a series of Xsand Os. The Xs represent upward price trends and the Os representdownward price trends. There are also numbers and letters in the chart; theserepresent months, and give investors an idea of the date. Each box on thechart represents the price scale, which adjusts depending on the price of thestock: the higher the stocks price the more each box represents.CONCLUSIONCharts are one of the most fundamental aspects of technical analysis. It isimportant that you clearly understand what is being shown on a chart and theinformation that it provides.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 20
  21. 21. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________STRENGTHS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSISFocus on Price: To predict the future price, technicians believe that oneshould focus on price movements. Price movements usually precedefundamental developments. By focusing on price action, technicians areautomatically focusing on the future. Even though the market is prone tosudden knee-jerk reactions, hints usually develop before significant moves.A technician will refer to periods of accumulation as evidence of animpending advance and periods of distribution as evidence of an impendingdecline.Supply, Demand, and Price Action: Many technicians use the open, high,low and close when analyzing the price action of a commodity. Separately,these will not be able to tell much. However, taken together, the open, high,low and close reflect forces of supply and demand.Support/Resistance: Simple chart analysis can help identify support andresistance levels. These are usually marked by periods of congestion (tradingrange) where the prices move within a confined range for an extendedperiod, telling us that the forces of supply and demand are deadlocked.When prices move out of the trading range, it signals that either supply ordemand has started to get the upper hand. If prices move above the upperband of the trading range, then demand is winning. If prices move below thelower band, then supply is winningPictorial Price History: A price chart can offer plenty of valuableinformation. It is an easy to read historical account of a securitys pricemovement over a period of time. Charts are much easier to read than a tableof numbers. On most stock charts, volume bars are displayed at the bottom.With this historical picture, it is easy to identify the following:• Reactions prior to and after important events.• Past and present volatility.• Historical volume or trading levels.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 21
  22. 22. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________• Relative strength of a stock versus the overall marketAssist with Entry Point: Technical analysis can help with timing a properentry point. Some analysts use fundamental analysis to decide what to buyand technical analysis to decide when to buy. Technical analysis can helpspot demand (support) and supply (resistance) levels as well as breakouts.Waiting for a breakout above resistance or buying near support levels canimprove returns.WEAKNESS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSISAnalyst Bias: Just as with fundamental analysis, technical analysis issubjective and our personal biases can be reflected in the analysis. It isimportant to be aware of these biases when analyzing a chart. Open to Interpretation: Furthering the bias argument is the fact thattechnical analysis is open to interpretation. Even though there are standards,many times two technicians will look at the same chart and paint twodifferent scenarios or see different patterns. Both will be able to come upwith logical support and resistance levels as well as key breaks to justifytheir position. While this can be frustrating, it should be pointed out thattechnical analysis is more like an art than a science, somewhat likeeconomics.Too Late: Technical analysis has been criticized for being too late. By thetime the trend is identified, a substantial portion of the move has alreadytaken place. After such a large move, the reward to risk ratio is not great.Lateness is a particular criticism of Dow Theory.Traders Remorse: Not all technical signals and patterns work. When youbegin to study technical analysis, you will come across an array of patternsand indicators with rules to match. For instance: A sell signal is given whenthe neckline of a head and shoulders pattern is broken. Even though this is arule, it is not steadfast and can be subject to other factors such as volume and____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 22
  23. 23. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________momentum. In that same vein, what works for one particular commoditymay not work for another.CRITICS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SAY………………..• No one or group of trading rules seems to work consistently.• Some prices moves are self fulfilling because so many chartist trades on breakouts–often are temporary.• Most of the trading rules require a great deal of subjective judgment.When price volatility goes down technical profits may also fall.Technical Analysis also happens to break one major jinx of fundamentalanalysis as it gives an exact price target and answers many questions like, • When to enter the market? • Whether to buy or sell? • If buy/ sell then at what prices? • How much should be the profit objective? • Where should one place a stop loss?Owing to all the above mentioned factors it could safely be concluded thatTechnical Analysis is one of the better tools for price forecasting. And intoday’s rapidly changing world investors look for short time returns whichcould better be achieved only by a superior price forecasting system and inthis case using Technical Analysis.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 23
  24. 24. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________INTRODUCTION OF SECTORSIT INDUSTRYThe robust growth of India can be attributed to the meteoritic success of‘India IT Industry’. In fact no other Indian industry has performed so wellagainst the global market. The vision of Information Technology (IT) policyis to use IT as a tool for raising the living standards of the common man andenriching their lives. Though, urban India has a high internet density, thegovernment also wants PC and Internet penetration in the rural India.In Information technology (IT), India has built up valuable brand equity inthe global markets. In IT-enabled services (ITES), India has emerged as themost preferred destination for business process outsourcing (BPO).INFOSYSExcellent results by Infosys Technologies had a positive impact on the entirespectrum of IT stocks. Infosys Technologies Ltd provides consulting and ITservices to clients globally - as partners to conceptualize and realizetechnology driven business transformation initiatives. With over 72,000employees worldwide, they use a low-risk Global Delivery Model (GDM) toaccelerate schedules with a high degree of time and cost predictability.WIPROWipro Technologies is a global services provider delivering technology-driven business solutions that meet the strategic objectives of our clients.Wipro has 40+ ‘Centers of Excellence’ that create solutions around specificneeds of industries. Wipro delivers unmatched business value to customersthrough a combination of process excellence, quality frameworks andservice delivery innovation. Wipro has had a Cumulative Annual GrowthRate (CAGR) of 25% over the last fifteen years, exhibiting stability,profitability and growth right from inception. Strong fundamentals likequality, integrity, and supreme customer service have been the drivers of thecompanys growth.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 24
  25. 25. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________BANKING INDUSTRYWith the Indian economy moving on to a high growth trajectory,consumption levels soaring and investment riding high, the Indian bankingsector is at a watershed. Further, as Indian companies globalize and peopleof Indian origin increase their investment in India, several Indian banks arepursuing global strategies.HDFC BANKHDFC Bank began operations in 1995 with a simple mission: to be a "World-class Indian Bank". They realized that only a single-minded focus on productquality and service excellence would help us get there. Today, they are proudto say that they are well on their way towards that goal. The Bank has posted a net profit of Rs 4711.10 million for thequarter ended March 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 3435.70 million for thequarter ended March 31, 2007. Total Income has increased from Rs23209.70 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 to Rs 35055.20million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008.ICICI BANKICICI Bank is Indias second-largest bank with total assets of Rs. 3,767.00billion at December 31, 2007 and profit after tax of Rs. 30.08 billion for thenine months ended December 31, 2007. ICICI Bank is second amongst allthe companies listed on the Indian stock exchanges in terms of free floatmarket capitalization. ICICI Banks equity shares are listed in India on Bombay StockExchange and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its AmericanDepositary Receipts (ADRs) are listed on the New York Stock Exchange(NYSE).____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 25
  26. 26. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________METHODOLOGY:Data Collection MethodTo carry out this project secondary data is collected which is the closingmarket price.Statistical Tools used: • Simple Moving Average • Relative Strength Index • Rate of Change.SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGEThe market indices do not rise or fall in straight line. The upward anddownward are interrupted by counter moves. The underlying trend can bestudied by smoothening of the data. To smooth the data moving averagetechnique is used. The word moving means that the body of data moves ahead to includethe recent observation. If it is five day moving average, on the sixth day thebody of data moves to include the sixth day observation eliminating the firstday’s observation. Likewise it continues. In the moving average calculation,closing price of the stock is used.TYPES OF MOVING AVERAGEThere are a number of different types of moving averages that vary in theway they are calculated, but how each average is interpreted remains thesame. The calculations only differ in regards to the weighting that they placeon the price data, shifting from equal weighting of each price point to moreweight being placed on recent data. The three most common types ofmoving averages are simple, linear and exponential. In this study Simple moving average is used. A simple movingaverage is formed by computing the average (mean) price of a security overa specified number of periods. While it is possible to create moving averages____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 26
  27. 27. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________from the Open, the High, and the Low data points, most moving average arecreated using the closing price. For example: a 5-day simple moving averageis calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 5 days and dividing thetotal by 5.10 + 11 + 12 + 13 + 14 = 60(60 / 5) = 12The calculation is repeated for each price bar on the chart. The averages arethen joined to form a smooth curving line - the moving average line.Continuing our example, if the next closing price in the average is 15, thenthis new period would be added and the oldest day, which is 10, would bedropped. The new 5-day simple moving average would be calculated asfollows:11 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 15 = 65(65 / 5) = 13Over the last 2 days, the SMA moved from 12 to 13. As new days are added,the old days will be subtracted and the moving average will continue tomove over time.STOCK PRICE AND STOCK PRICES MOVING AVERAGEBuy and sell signals are provided by the moving averages. Moving averagesare used along with the price of the scrip. The stock price may intersect themoving average at a particular point. Downward penetration of the risingaverage indicates the possibility of a further fall. Upward penetration of afalling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise and gives thebuy signal.COMPARISON OF THE TWO MOVING AVERAGESWhen long term and short term moving averages are drawn, the intersectionof two moving averages generates buy or sell signal. When the scrip price is____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 27
  28. 28. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________falling and if the short term average intersects the long term moving averagefrom above and falls below it, the sell signal is generated. If the scrip price is rising, the short term average would be above thelong term average. The short term average intersects the long term averagefrom below indicating a further rise in price, gives a buy signal.OSCILLATORSOscillators indicate the market momentum or scrip momentum. Oscillatorshows the share price movement across a reference point from one extremeto another. The momentum indicates: • Overbought and oversold conditions of the scrip or the market. • Signaling the possible trend reversal. • Rise or decline in the momentum.Oscillators are analyzed along with the price chart. Oscillators indicate trendreversals that have to be confirmed with the price movement of the scrip.Changes in the price should be correlated to changes in the momentum, andthen only buy and sell signals can be generated. With the daily, weekly ormonthly closing prices oscillators are built. For short term trading, dailyprice oscillators are useful.RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEXRSI is an oscillator used to identify the inherent technical strength andweakness of a particular scrip or market. RSI can be calculated for scrip byadopting the following formula. RSI = 100 - 100 1 + RS RS = Average Gain Per Day Average Loss Per DayThe RSI can be calculated for any number of days depending on the wish ofthe technical analyst and the time frame of trading adopted in a particular____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 28
  29. 29. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________stock market. RSI is calculated for 5, 7, 9 and 14 days. If the period takenfor calculation is more, the possibility of getting wrong signals is reduced. The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy there may bedownturn and it is time to sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pickup the script. If the RSI is rising in the overbought zone, it would indicatethe downfall of the price. If RSI falls in the overbought zone, it gives a clearsignal of sell. This condition occurs after a sharp rise in price during a periodof heavy buying. When the RSI is in the oversold region, it generates thebuy signal. The term oversold is used to describe a security or market thathas declined to an unreasonably low level.RATE OF CHANGEROC measures the rate of change between the current price and the price ‘n’number of days in the past. ROC helps to find out the overbought andoversold positions in scrip. Closing prices are used to calculate the ROC.Daily closing prices are used for the daily ROC and weekly closing pricesfor weekly ROC. In this study I have used weekly closing prices forcalculation. The Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is a very simple yet effectivemomentum oscillator that measures the percent change in price from oneperiod to the next. The (ROC) calculation compares the current price withthe price n periods ago.ROC = ((Today’s close – Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)) *100The main advantage of ROC is the identification of overbought and oversoldregion. The historic high and low values of the ROC should be identified atfirst to locate the overbought and oversold region. If the scrip’s ROC reachesthe historic high values, the scrip is in the overbought region. If the scrip’sROC reaches the historic low value, the scrip is in the oversold region.____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 29
  30. 30. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________CALCULATIONSTECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF HDFC BANKHDFC BANK 12 DAYS & 24 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE Closing 12 24HDFCBANK Price Days Days2-Apr-07 901.353-Apr-07 914.24-Apr-07 925.055-Apr-07 942.69-Apr-07 971.1510-Apr-07 991.9511-Apr-07 979.3512-Apr-07 958.3513-Apr-07 981.216-Apr-07 974.9517-Apr-07 978.0518-Apr-07 980.4 958.2219-Apr-07 982.45 964.9820-Apr-07 994.6 971.6823-Apr-07 986.8 976.8224-Apr-07 1013.75 982.7525-Apr-07 1031 987.7426-Apr-07 1034.45 991.2827-Apr-07 1014.6 994.2230-Apr-07 1024.15 999.703-May-07 1004.6 1001.654-May-07 1007.75 1004.387-May-07 1000.05 1006.228-May-07 991.3 1007.13 982.679-May-07 994.7 1008.15 986.5610-May-07 1011.8 1009.58 990.6311-May-07 992.6 1010.06 993.4414-May-07 995.9 1008.58 995.6615-May-07 1011.05 1006.91 997.3316-May-07 1035.45 1007.00 999.1417-May-07 1042.05 1009.28 1001.7518-May-07 1070.3 1013.13 1006.4121-May-07 1106.8 1021.65 1011.6522-May-07 1115.1 1030.59 1017.4923-May-07 1114.65 1040.14 1023.1824-May-07 1091.15 1048.46 1027.7925-May-07 1069.2 1054.67 1031.4128-May-07 1127.15 1064.28 1036.9329-May-07 1144.4 1076.93 1043.5030-May-07 1104.05 1085.95 1047.2631-May-07 1147.6 1097.33 1052.121-Jun-07 1153.45 1107.16 1057.084-Jun-07 1168.4 1117.69 1063.495-Jun-07 1159.6 1125.13 1069.136-Jun-07 1127.2 1126.83 1074.247-Jun-07 1105.55 1126.03 1078.318-Jun-07 1090.95 1124.06 1082.10____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 30
  31. 31. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________11-Jun-07 1097.35 1124.58 1086.5212-Jun-07 1088.15 1126.15 1090.4113-Jun-07 1082.9 1122.47 1093.3814-Jun-07 1096.4 1118.47 1097.7015-Jun-07 1110.35 1118.99 1102.4718-Jun-07 1088.45 1114.06 1105.6919-Jun-07 1099.95 1109.60 1108.3820-Jun-07 1100.05 1103.91 1110.8021-Jun-07 1101.8 1099.09 1112.1122-Jun-07 1103 1097.08 1111.9525-Jun-07 1099.8 1096.60 1111.3126-Jun-07 1098.7 1097.24 1110.6527-Jun-07 1090.35 1096.66 1110.6228-Jun-07 1097.3 1097.42 1111.7929-Jun-07 1146.75 1102.74 1112.602-Jul-07 1147.55 1107.00 1112.743-Jul-07 1150.5 1110.35 1114.674-Jul-07 1150.75 1115.54 1114.805-Jul-07 1129.1 1117.97 1113.796-Jul-07 1158.3 1122.83 1113.379-Jul-07 1167.6 1128.31 1113.7010-Jul-07 1149.3 1132.17 1114.6211-Jul-07 1148.75 1136.25 1116.4212-Jul-07 1201.45 1144.81 1121.0313-Jul-07 1226.4 1156.15 1126.4016-Jul-07 1217.65 1166.18 1131.8017-Jul-07 1199.3 1170.55 1136.6518-Jul-07 1200.05 1174.93 1140.9719-Jul-07 1209.25 1179.83 1145.0920-Jul-07 1200.9 1184.00 1149.7723-Jul-07 1230.3 1192.44 1155.2024-Jul-07 1248.9 1199.99 1161.4125-Jul-07 1239.05 1205.94 1167.1326-Jul-07 1217.25 1211.60 1171.8927-Jul-07 1169.35 1213.32 1174.7830-Jul-07 1168.85 1210.60 1177.7131-Jul-07 1200.6 1208.45 1182.301-Aug-07 1161.35 1203.76 1184.972-Aug-07 1152.4 1199.85 1185.203-Aug-07 1155 1196.10 1185.516-Aug-07 1132.5 1189.70 1184.767-Aug-07 1141.4 1184.75 1184.388-Aug-07 1171.75 1179.87 1186.159-Aug-07 1155.65 1172.10 1186.0410-Aug-07 1130.5 1163.05 1184.5013-Aug-07 1135.65 1156.25 1183.9314-Aug-07 1147.65 1154.44 1183.8816-Aug-07 1094 1148.20 1179.4017-Aug-07 1068.1 1137.16 1172.8120-Aug-07 1110.9 1132.96 1168.3621-Aug-07 1103.95 1128.92 1164.3922-Aug-07 1117.4 1125.79 1160.9423-Aug-07 1100.15 1123.09 1156.4024-Aug-07 1097.7 1119.45 1152.10____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 31
  32. 32. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________27-Aug-07 1119.6 1115.10 1147.4928-Aug-07 1150.6 1114.68 1143.3929-Aug-07 1162.55 1117.35 1140.2030-Aug-07 1180.6 1121.10 1138.6831-Aug-07 1171.7 1123.10 1138.773-Sep-07 1176.4 1129.97 1139.094-Sep-07 1176.45 1139.00 1138.085-Sep-07 1172.45 1144.13 1138.546-Sep-07 1184.6 1150.85 1139.897-Sep-07 1196.55 1157.45 1141.6210-Sep-07 1196.1 1165.44 1144.2711-Sep-07 1187.8 1172.95 1146.2012-Sep-07 1182.15 1178.16 1146.6313-Sep-07 1213.5 1183.40 1149.0414-Sep-07 1232.7 1189.25 1153.3017-Sep-07 1226.15 1193.05 1157.0718-Sep-07 1231.15 1198.00 1160.5519-Sep-07 1324.3 1210.33 1170.1520-Sep-07 1326.2 1222.80 1180.9021-Sep-07 1318.45 1234.97 1189.5524-Sep-07 1346.5 1248.46 1199.6625-Sep-07 1396.35 1265.11 1211.2826-Sep-07 1375.7 1280.08 1222.7627-Sep-07 1433 1300.51 1236.7328-Sep-07 1435.6 1321.63 1249.901-Oct-07 1411.65 1338.15 1260.783-Oct-07 1424.8 1354.15 1271.704-Oct-07 1409.7 1369.45 1281.255-Oct-07 1403.15 1383.78 1290.898-Oct-07 1407.35 1390.70 1300.519-Oct-07 1421.15 1398.62 1310.7110-Oct-07 1416.95 1406.83 1320.9011-Oct-07 1460.7 1416.34 1332.4012-Oct-07 1432.7 1419.37 1342.2415-Oct-07 1499.2 1429.66 1354.8716-Oct-07 1507.75 1435.89 1368.2017-Oct-07 1462.75 1438.15 1379.8918-Oct-07 1388.2 1436.20 1387.1719-Oct-07 1366.35 1431.33 1392.7422-Oct-07 1371.9 1428.18 1398.8123-Oct-07 1488.2 1435.27 1409.5324-Oct-07 1513.95 1444.15 1417.4325-Oct-07 1554 1455.22 1426.9226-Oct-07 1546.5 1466.02 1436.4229-Oct-07 1646.95 1481.54 1448.9430-Oct-07 1620.55 1497.19 1458.2831-Oct-07 1653.4 1510.04 1469.851-Nov-07 1690.2 1525.25 1480.572-Nov-07 1770.5 1550.89 1494.525-Nov-07 1716.05 1578.21 1507.216-Nov-07 1708.2 1606.70 1519.017-Nov-07 1616.85 1627.11 1527.658-Nov-07 1555.35 1632.71 1533.999-Nov-07 1536.25 1634.57 1539.36____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 32
  33. 33. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________12-Nov-07 1477.35 1628.18 1541.7013-Nov-07 1574.2 1630.49 1548.2514-Nov-07 1752.3 1639.27 1560.4015-Nov-07 1700.45 1645.93 1571.5616-Nov-07 1687.1 1648.73 1579.3919-Nov-07 1654.55 1645.76 1585.5020-Nov-07 1630.3 1634.08 1592.4921-Nov-07 1580.9 1622.82 1600.5122-Nov-07 1591.7 1613.11 1609.9023-Nov-07 1562.7 1608.60 1617.8526-Nov-07 1643.35 1615.93 1624.3227-Nov-07 1632.65 1623.96 1629.2628-Nov-07 1606.35 1634.71 1631.4529-Nov-07 1674.4 1643.06 1636.7830-Nov-07 1716.15 1640.05 1639.663-Dec-07 1696.1 1639.69 1642.814-Dec-07 1701.65 1640.90 1644.825-Dec-07 1723.8 1646.67 1646.226-Dec-07 1689.95 1651.64 1642.867-Dec-07 1719.8 1663.22 1643.0210-Dec-07 1687.95 1671.24 1642.1711-Dec-07 1780.55 1689.39 1648.9912-Dec-07 1784.05 1701.12 1658.5213-Dec-07 1756.35 1711.43 1667.6914-Dec-07 1724.45 1721.27 1677.9917-Dec-07 1683.55 1722.03 1682.5518-Dec-07 1661.75 1717.50 1678.7719-Dec-07 1653.05 1713.91 1676.8020-Dec-07 1642.7 1709.00 1674.9524-Dec-07 1698.15 1706.86 1676.7626-Dec-07 1706.75 1708.26 1679.9527-Dec-07 1745.5 1710.40 1686.8128-Dec-07 1730.3 1713.93 1692.5831-Dec-07 1729.1 1709.64 1699.521-Jan-08 1729.5 1705.10 1703.112-Jan-08 1715.3 1701.68 1706.553-Jan-08 1694.4 1699.17 1710.224-Jan-08 1696.4 1700.24 1711.147-Jan-08 1655.4 1699.71 1708.608-Jan-08 1715.75 1704.94 1709.429-Jan-08 1744.6 1713.43 1711.2110-Jan-08 1722 1715.42 1711.1411-Jan-08 1764.55 1720.23 1714.2514-Jan-08 1783.15 1723.37 1716.8915-Jan-08 1788.95 1728.26 1721.0916-Jan-08 1673.75 1723.65 1716.6417-Jan-08 1643.6 1716.49 1710.7918-Jan-08 1571 1704.46 1703.0721-Jan-08 1507.1 1688.85 1694.0122-Jan-08 1426.4 1666.35 1683.3023-Jan-08 1534.3 1656.26 1677.9924-Jan-08 1510.4 1639.15 1672.0425-Jan-08 1608.45 1627.80 1670.6228-Jan-08 1590.2 1616.82 1666.12____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 33
  34. 34. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________29-Jan-08 1537.35 1597.89 1659.0630-Jan-08 1532.95 1577.04 1650.2031-Jan-08 1569.55 1558.75 1643.511-Feb-08 1571 1550.19 1636.924-Feb-08 1547.4 1542.18 1629.335-Feb-08 1512.25 1537.28 1620.876-Feb-08 1500.1 1536.70 1612.787-Feb-08 1491.8 1542.15 1604.258-Feb-08 1441.95 1534.45 1595.3611-Feb-08 1410.75 1526.15 1582.6512-Feb-08 1407.65 1509.41 1568.6113-Feb-08 1468.5 1499.27 1558.0514-Feb-08 1536.45 1499.20 1548.5415-Feb-08 1562.25 1501.64 1539.3418-Feb-08 1556.85 1500.58 1529.6719-Feb-08 1571.9 1500.65 1525.4220-Feb-08 1537.2 1499.80 1520.9921-Feb-08 1540.85 1502.19 1519.7322-Feb-08 1474.3 1500.04 1518.3725-Feb-08 1421.75 1494.20 1518.1726-Feb-08 1454.9 1495.28 1514.8627-Feb-08 1452.3 1498.74 1512.4428-Feb-08 1472.55 1504.15 1506.7829-Feb-08 1456.75 1503.17 1501.223-Mar-08 1389.9 1490.96 1495.084-Mar-08 1351.75 1473.42 1487.535-Mar-08 1332.75 1454.74 1477.667-Mar-08 1282.25 1430.60 1465.6310-Mar-08 1311.5 1411.80 1455.8011-Mar-08 1333.2 1394.49 1448.3412-Mar-08 1370.55 1385.85 1442.9413-Mar-08 1299.15 1375.63 1434.9114-Mar-08 1315.45 1364.01 1429.6417-Mar-08 1226 1345.15 1421.9518-Mar-08 1230.95 1325.02 1414.5819-Mar-08 1272.6 1309.67 1406.4224-Mar-08 1341.9 1305.67 1398.3125-Mar-08 1414 1310.86 1392.1426-Mar-08 1439.2 1319.73 1387.2427-Mar-08 1433.2 1332.31 1381.4628-Mar-08 1407 1340.27 1376.0331-Mar-08 1331.25 1340.10 1367.30____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 34
  35. 35. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX OF HDFC BANK (OF 7DAYS) Closing Average AverageHDFCBANK Price Gain Loss Gain Loss RS RSI2-Apr-07 901.353-Apr-07 914.2 12.854-Apr-07 925.05 10.855-Apr-07 942.6 17.559-Apr-07 971.15 28.5510-Apr-07 991.95 20.811-Apr-07 979.35 12.6 18.12 12.60 1.44 58.9812-Apr-07 958.35 21 18.12 16.80 1.08 51.8913-Apr-07 981.2 22.85 20.12 16.80 1.20 54.5016-Apr-07 974.95 6.25 22.44 13.28 1.69 62.8117-Apr-07 978.05 3.1 18.83 13.28 1.42 58.6318-Apr-07 980.4 2.35 12.28 13.28 0.92 48.0319-Apr-07 982.45 2.05 7.59 13.28 0.57 36.3520-Apr-07 994.6 12.15 8.50 13.63 0.62 38.4223-Apr-07 986.8 7.8 8.50 7.03 1.21 54.7524-Apr-07 1013.75 26.95 9.32 7.03 1.33 57.0225-Apr-07 1031 17.25 10.64 7.80 1.36 57.7026-Apr-07 1034.45 3.45 10.70 7.80 1.37 57.8427-Apr-07 1014.6 19.85 12.37 13.83 0.89 47.2230-Apr-07 1024.15 9.55 13.87 13.83 1.00 50.083-May-07 1004.6 19.55 14.30 15.73 0.91 47.614-May-07 1007.75 3.15 12.07 19.70 0.61 37.997-May-07 1000.05 7.7 8.35 15.70 0.53 34.728-May-07 991.3 8.75 5.38 13.96 0.39 27.839-May-07 994.7 3.4 5.37 13.96 0.38 27.7610-May-07 1011.8 17.1 8.30 12.00 0.69 40.8911-May-07 992.6 19.2 7.88 13.80 0.57 36.3614-May-07 995.9 3.3 6.74 11.88 0.57 36.1815-May-07 1011.05 15.15 9.74 11.88 0.82 45.0416-May-07 1035.45 24.4 12.67 13.98 0.91 47.5517-May-07 1042.05 6.6 11.66 19.20 0.61 37.7818-May-07 1070.3 28.25 15.80 19.20 0.82 45.1421-May-07 1106.8 36.5 19.03 19.20 0.99 49.7822-May-07 1115.1 8.3 17.50 0.00 0.00 0.0023-May-07 1114.65 0.45 19.87 0.45 44.15 97.7924-May-07 1091.15 23.5 20.81 11.97 1.74 63.4725-May-07 1069.2 21.95 19.91 15.30 1.30 56.5528-May-07 1127.15 57.95 32.75 15.30 2.14 68.1629-May-07 1144.4 17.25 30.00 15.30 1.96 66.2330-May-07 1104.05 40.35 27.83 21.56 1.29 56.3531-May-07 1147.6 43.55 39.58 21.56 1.84 64.741-Jun-07 1153.45 5.85 31.15 28.60 1.09 52.134-Jun-07 1168.4 14.95 27.91 31.15 0.90 47.265-Jun-07 1159.6 8.8 27.91 24.58 1.14 53.186-Jun-07 1127.2 32.4 20.40 27.18 0.75 42.877-Jun-07 1105.55 21.65 21.45 25.80 0.83 45.408-Jun-07 1090.95 14.6 21.45 19.36 1.11 52.5611-Jun-07 1097.35 6.4 9.07 19.36 0.47 31.8912-Jun-07 1088.15 9.2 10.68 17.33 0.62 38.12____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 35
  36. 36. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________13-Jun-07 1082.9 5.25 6.40 15.32 0.42 29.4714-Jun-07 1096.4 13.5 9.95 16.62 0.60 37.4515-Jun-07 1110.35 13.95 11.28 12.68 0.89 47.1018-Jun-07 1088.45 21.9 11.28 12.74 0.89 46.9719-Jun-07 1099.95 11.5 11.34 12.12 0.94 48.3420-Jun-07 1100.05 0.1 9.76 12.12 0.81 44.6221-Jun-07 1101.8 1.75 8.16 13.57 0.60 37.5422-Jun-07 1103 1.2 7.00 21.90 0.32 24.2225-Jun-07 1099.8 3.2 5.70 12.55 0.45 31.2326-Jun-07 1098.7 1.1 3.64 8.73 0.42 29.4027-Jun-07 1090.35 8.35 3.64 4.22 0.86 46.3128-Jun-07 1097.3 6.95 2.50 4.22 0.59 37.2229-Jun-07 1146.75 49.45 14.84 4.22 3.52 77.872-Jul-07 1147.55 0.8 14.60 4.22 3.46 77.593-Jul-07 1150.5 2.95 15.04 4.22 3.57 78.104-Jul-07 1150.75 0.25 12.08 4.73 2.56 71.885-Jul-07 1129.1 21.65 12.08 15.00 0.81 44.616-Jul-07 1158.3 29.2 14.93 21.65 0.69 40.829-Jul-07 1167.6 9.3 15.33 21.65 0.71 41.4510-Jul-07 1149.3 18.3 8.50 19.98 0.43 29.8511-Jul-07 1148.75 0.55 10.43 13.50 0.77 43.5712-Jul-07 1201.45 52.7 22.86 13.50 1.69 62.8713-Jul-07 1226.4 24.95 29.04 13.50 2.15 68.2616-Jul-07 1217.65 8.75 29.04 9.20 3.16 75.9417-Jul-07 1199.3 18.35 28.98 11.49 2.52 71.6218-Jul-07 1200.05 0.75 26.13 11.49 2.27 69.4719-Jul-07 1209.25 9.2 21.90 9.22 2.38 70.3820-Jul-07 1200.9 8.35 21.90 11.82 1.85 64.9523-Jul-07 1230.3 29.4 16.08 11.82 1.36 57.6324-Jul-07 1248.9 18.6 14.49 11.82 1.23 55.0825-Jul-07 1239.05 9.85 14.49 12.18 1.19 54.3226-Jul-07 1217.25 21.8 14.49 13.33 1.09 52.0727-Jul-07 1169.35 47.9 19.07 21.98 0.87 46.4630-Jul-07 1168.85 0.5 24.00 17.68 1.36 57.5831-Jul-07 1200.6 31.75 26.58 20.01 1.33 57.051-Aug-07 1161.35 39.25 25.18 23.86 1.06 51.342-Aug-07 1152.4 8.95 31.75 21.38 1.49 59.763-Aug-07 1155 2.6 17.18 23.68 0.73 42.046-Aug-07 1132.5 22.5 17.18 23.82 0.72 41.907-Aug-07 1141.4 8.9 14.42 17.80 0.81 44.758-Aug-07 1171.75 30.35 18.40 23.57 0.78 43.849-Aug-07 1155.65 16.1 13.95 21.70 0.64 39.1310-Aug-07 1130.5 25.15 13.95 18.18 0.77 43.4213-Aug-07 1135.65 5.15 11.75 21.25 0.55 35.6114-Aug-07 1147.65 12 14.10 21.25 0.66 39.8916-Aug-07 1094 53.65 14.10 31.63 0.45 30.8317-Aug-07 1068.1 25.9 15.83 30.20 0.52 34.4020-Aug-07 1110.9 42.8 19.98 30.20 0.66 39.8221-Aug-07 1103.95 6.95 19.98 27.91 0.72 41.7222-Aug-07 1117.4 13.45 18.35 28.83 0.64 38.8923-Aug-07 1100.15 17.25 22.75 25.94 0.88 46.7324-Aug-07 1097.7 2.45 28.13 21.24 1.32 56.9727-Aug-07 1119.6 21.9 26.05 13.14 1.98 66.4828-Aug-07 1150.6 31 27.29 8.88 3.07 75.44____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 36
  37. 37. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________29-Aug-07 1162.55 11.95 19.58 8.88 2.20 68.7830-Aug-07 1180.6 18.05 19.27 9.85 1.96 66.1731-Aug-07 1171.7 8.9 20.73 9.53 2.17 68.493-Sep-07 1176.4 4.7 17.52 5.67 3.09 75.534-Sep-07 1176.45 0.05 14.61 8.90 1.64 62.145-Sep-07 1172.45 4 13.15 6.45 2.04 67.096-Sep-07 1184.6 12.15 9.38 6.45 1.45 59.257-Sep-07 1196.55 11.95 9.38 6.45 1.45 59.2510-Sep-07 1196.1 0.45 7.21 4.45 1.62 61.8411-Sep-07 1187.8 8.3 7.21 4.25 1.70 62.9212-Sep-07 1182.15 5.65 8.05 4.60 1.75 63.6413-Sep-07 1213.5 31.35 18.48 4.60 4.02 80.0714-Sep-07 1232.7 19.2 18.66 4.80 3.89 79.5417-Sep-07 1226.15 6.55 20.83 5.24 3.98 79.9118-Sep-07 1231.15 5 18.52 5.24 3.54 77.9519-Sep-07 1324.3 93.15 37.18 6.83 5.44 84.4720-Sep-07 1326.2 1.9 30.12 6.10 4.94 83.1621-Sep-07 1318.45 7.75 30.12 7.15 4.21 80.8224-Sep-07 1346.5 28.05 29.46 7.15 4.12 80.4725-Sep-07 1396.35 49.85 35.59 7.15 4.98 83.2726-Sep-07 1375.7 20.65 35.59 14.20 2.51 71.4827-Sep-07 1433 57.3 46.05 14.20 3.24 76.4328-Sep-07 1435.6 2.6 27.94 14.20 1.97 66.301-Oct-07 1411.65 23.95 34.45 17.45 1.97 66.383-Oct-07 1424.8 13.15 30.19 22.30 1.35 57.524-Oct-07 1409.7 15.1 30.72 19.90 1.54 60.695-Oct-07 1403.15 6.55 24.35 16.56 1.47 59.528-Oct-07 1407.35 4.2 19.31 15.20 1.27 55.969-Oct-07 1421.15 13.8 8.44 15.20 0.56 35.7010-Oct-07 1416.95 4.2 10.38 12.45 0.83 45.4711-Oct-07 1460.7 43.75 18.73 8.62 2.17 68.4912-Oct-07 1432.7 28 20.58 13.46 1.53 60.4615-Oct-07 1499.2 66.5 32.06 12.92 2.48 71.2816-Oct-07 1507.75 8.55 27.36 16.10 1.70 62.9517-Oct-07 1462.75 45 33.15 25.73 1.29 56.3018-Oct-07 1388.2 74.55 39.60 37.94 1.04 51.0719-Oct-07 1366.35 21.85 39.60 42.35 0.94 48.3222-Oct-07 1371.9 5.55 26.87 42.35 0.63 38.8223-Oct-07 1488.2 116.3 49.23 47.13 1.04 51.0924-Oct-07 1513.95 25.75 39.04 47.13 0.83 45.3025-Oct-07 1554 40.05 46.91 47.13 1.00 49.8826-Oct-07 1546.5 7.5 46.91 34.63 1.35 57.5329-Oct-07 1646.95 100.45 57.62 14.68 3.93 79.7030-Oct-07 1620.55 26.4 57.62 16.95 3.40 77.2731-Oct-07 1653.4 32.85 63.08 16.95 3.72 78.821-Nov-07 1690.2 36.8 47.18 16.95 2.78 73.572-Nov-07 1770.5 80.3 58.09 16.95 3.43 77.415-Nov-07 1716.05 54.45 62.60 29.45 2.13 68.016-Nov-07 1708.2 7.85 62.60 29.57 2.12 67.927-Nov-07 1616.85 91.35 49.98 45.01 1.11 52.628-Nov-07 1555.35 61.5 49.98 53.79 0.93 48.179-Nov-07 1536.25 19.1 58.55 46.85 1.25 55.5512-Nov-07 1477.35 58.9 80.30 48.86 1.64 62.1713-Nov-07 1574.2 96.85 96.85 48.86 1.98 66.47____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 37
  38. 38. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________14-Nov-07 1752.3 178.1 137.48 47.74 2.88 74.2215-Nov-07 1700.45 51.85 137.48 56.54 2.43 70.8616-Nov-07 1687.1 13.35 137.48 40.94 3.36 77.0519-Nov-07 1654.55 32.55 137.48 35.15 3.91 79.6420-Nov-07 1630.3 24.25 137.48 36.18 3.80 79.1721-Nov-07 1580.9 49.4 137.48 34.28 4.01 80.0422-Nov-07 1591.7 10.8 94.45 34.28 2.76 73.3723-Nov-07 1562.7 29 10.80 33.40 0.32 24.4326-Nov-07 1643.35 80.65 45.72 29.71 1.54 60.6227-Nov-07 1632.65 10.7 45.72 29.18 1.57 61.0428-Nov-07 1606.35 26.3 45.72 27.93 1.64 62.0829-Nov-07 1674.4 68.05 53.17 28.85 1.84 64.8230-Nov-07 1716.15 41.75 50.31 22.00 2.29 69.583-Dec-07 1696.1 20.05 63.48 21.51 2.95 74.694-Dec-07 1701.65 5.55 49.00 19.02 2.58 72.045-Dec-07 1723.8 22.15 34.38 19.02 1.81 64.386-Dec-07 1689.95 33.85 34.38 26.73 1.29 56.257-Dec-07 1719.8 29.85 33.47 26.95 1.24 55.4010-Dec-07 1687.95 31.85 24.83 28.58 0.87 46.4811-Dec-07 1780.55 92.6 37.54 28.58 1.31 56.7712-Dec-07 1784.05 3.5 30.73 32.85 0.94 48.3313-Dec-07 1756.35 27.7 37.02 31.13 1.19 54.3214-Dec-07 1724.45 31.9 41.98 31.32 1.34 57.2717-Dec-07 1683.55 40.9 41.98 33.09 1.27 55.9218-Dec-07 1661.75 21.8 48.05 30.83 1.56 60.9219-Dec-07 1653.05 8.7 48.05 26.20 1.83 64.7120-Dec-07 1642.7 10.35 3.50 23.56 0.15 12.9424-Dec-07 1698.15 55.45 55.45 23.56 2.35 70.1826-Dec-07 1706.75 8.6 32.03 22.73 1.41 58.4927-Dec-07 1745.5 38.75 34.27 20.44 1.68 62.6428-Dec-07 1730.3 15.2 34.27 14.01 2.45 70.9831-Dec-07 1729.1 1.2 34.27 8.86 3.87 79.451-Jan-08 1729.5 0.4 25.80 8.92 2.89 74.322-Jan-08 1715.3 14.2 25.80 10.20 2.53 71.673-Jan-08 1694.4 20.9 15.92 12.88 1.24 55.284-Jan-08 1696.4 2 13.72 12.88 1.07 51.587-Jan-08 1655.4 41 1.20 18.50 0.06 6.098-Jan-08 1715.75 60.35 20.92 19.33 1.08 51.989-Jan-08 1744.6 28.85 22.90 25.37 0.90 47.4410-Jan-08 1722 22.6 30.40 24.68 1.23 55.2011-Jan-08 1764.55 42.55 33.44 28.17 1.19 54.2814-Jan-08 1783.15 18.6 30.47 31.80 0.96 48.9315-Jan-08 1788.95 5.8 31.23 31.80 0.98 49.5516-Jan-08 1673.75 115.2 31.23 68.90 0.45 31.1917-Jan-08 1643.6 30.15 23.95 55.98 0.43 29.9618-Jan-08 1571 72.6 22.32 60.14 0.37 27.0721-Jan-08 1507.1 63.9 22.32 70.46 0.32 24.0522-Jan-08 1426.4 80.7 12.20 72.51 0.17 14.4023-Jan-08 1534.3 107.9 56.85 72.51 0.78 43.9524-Jan-08 1510.4 23.9 107.90 64.41 1.68 62.6225-Jan-08 1608.45 98.05 102.98 54.25 1.90 65.5028-Jan-08 1590.2 18.25 102.98 51.87 1.99 66.5029-Jan-08 1537.35 52.85 102.98 47.92 2.15 68.2430-Jan-08 1532.95 4.4 102.98 36.02 2.86 74.09____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 38
  39. 39. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________31-Jan-08 1569.55 36.6 80.85 24.85 3.25 76.491-Feb-08 1571 1.45 45.37 24.85 1.83 64.614-Feb-08 1547.4 23.6 45.37 24.78 1.83 64.685-Feb-08 1512.25 35.15 19.03 26.85 0.71 41.476-Feb-08 1500.1 12.15 19.03 25.63 0.74 42.607-Feb-08 1491.8 8.3 19.03 16.72 1.14 53.228-Feb-08 1441.95 49.85 19.03 25.81 0.74 42.4311-Feb-08 1410.75 31.2 1.45 26.71 0.05 5.1512-Feb-08 1407.65 3.1 0.00 23.34 0.00 0.0013-Feb-08 1468.5 60.85 60.85 23.29 2.61 72.3214-Feb-08 1536.45 67.95 64.40 20.92 3.08 75.4815-Feb-08 1562.25 25.8 51.53 23.11 2.23 69.0418-Feb-08 1556.85 5.4 51.53 22.39 2.30 69.7119-Feb-08 1571.9 15.05 42.41 13.23 3.20 76.2220-Feb-08 1537.2 34.7 42.41 14.40 2.95 74.6521-Feb-08 1540.85 3.65 34.66 20.05 1.73 63.3522-Feb-08 1474.3 66.55 28.11 35.55 0.79 44.1625-Feb-08 1421.75 52.55 14.83 39.80 0.37 27.1526-Feb-08 1454.9 33.15 17.28 39.80 0.43 30.2827-Feb-08 1452.3 2.6 17.28 39.10 0.44 30.6528-Feb-08 1472.55 20.25 19.02 39.10 0.49 32.7229-Feb-08 1456.75 15.8 19.02 34.38 0.55 35.623-Mar-08 1389.9 66.85 26.70 40.87 0.65 39.514-Mar-08 1351.75 38.15 26.70 35.19 0.76 43.145-Mar-08 1332.75 19 26.70 28.48 0.94 48.397-Mar-08 1282.25 50.5 20.25 32.15 0.63 38.6510-Mar-08 1311.5 29.25 24.75 38.06 0.65 39.4011-Mar-08 1333.2 21.7 25.48 38.06 0.67 40.1012-Mar-08 1370.55 37.35 29.43 43.63 0.67 40.2913-Mar-08 1299.15 71.4 29.43 44.76 0.66 39.6714-Mar-08 1315.45 16.3 26.15 46.97 0.56 35.7617-Mar-08 1226 89.45 26.15 70.45 0.37 27.0718-Mar-08 1230.95 4.95 21.91 80.43 0.27 21.4119-Mar-08 1272.6 41.65 24.39 80.43 0.30 23.2724-Mar-08 1341.9 69.3 33.91 80.43 0.42 29.6625-Mar-08 1414 72.1 40.86 80.43 0.51 33.6926-Mar-08 1439.2 25.2 38.25 89.45 0.43 29.9527-Mar-08 1433.2 6 42.64 47.73 0.89 47.1928-Mar-08 1407 26.2 42.64 16.10 2.65 72.5931-Mar-08 1331.25 75.75 52.06 35.98 1.45 59.13____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 39
  40. 40. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________RATE OF CHANGE OF HDFC BANK (7 DAYS) ClosingHDFCBANK Price ROC2-Apr-07 901.353-Apr-07 914.24-Apr-07 925.055-Apr-07 942.69-Apr-07 971.1510-Apr-07 991.9511-Apr-07 979.35 8.6512-Apr-07 958.35 4.8313-Apr-07 981.2 6.0716-Apr-07 974.95 3.4317-Apr-07 978.05 0.7118-Apr-07 980.4 -1.1619-Apr-07 982.45 0.3220-Apr-07 994.6 3.7823-Apr-07 986.8 0.5724-Apr-07 1013.75 3.9825-Apr-07 1031 5.4126-Apr-07 1034.45 5.5127-Apr-07 1014.6 3.2730-Apr-07 1024.15 2.973-May-07 1004.6 1.804-May-07 1007.75 -0.597-May-07 1000.05 -3.008-May-07 991.3 -4.179-May-07 994.7 -1.9610-May-07 1011.8 -1.2111-May-07 992.6 -1.1914-May-07 995.9 -1.1815-May-07 1011.05 1.1016-May-07 1035.45 4.4517-May-07 1042.05 4.7618-May-07 1070.3 5.7821-May-07 1106.8 11.5122-May-07 1115.1 11.9723-May-07 1114.65 10.2524-May-07 1091.15 5.3825-May-07 1069.2 2.6128-May-07 1127.15 5.3129-May-07 1144.4 3.4030-May-07 1104.05 -0.9931-May-07 1147.6 2.961-Jun-07 1153.45 5.714-Jun-07 1168.4 9.285-Jun-07 1159.6 2.886-Jun-07 1127.2 -1.507-Jun-07 1105.55 0.148-Jun-07 1090.95 -4.9411-Jun-07 1097.35 -4.8612-Jun-07 1088.15 -6.8713-Jun-07 1082.9 -6.61____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 40
  41. 41. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________14-Jun-07 1096.4 -2.7315-Jun-07 1110.35 0.4318-Jun-07 1088.45 -0.2319-Jun-07 1099.95 0.2420-Jun-07 1100.05 1.0921-Jun-07 1101.8 1.7522-Jun-07 1103 0.6025-Jun-07 1099.8 -0.9526-Jun-07 1098.7 0.9427-Jun-07 1090.35 -0.8728-Jun-07 1097.3 -0.2529-Jun-07 1146.75 4.082-Jul-07 1147.55 4.043-Jul-07 1150.5 4.614-Jul-07 1150.75 4.745-Jul-07 1129.1 3.556-Jul-07 1158.3 5.569-Jul-07 1167.6 1.8210-Jul-07 1149.3 0.1511-Jul-07 1148.75 -0.1512-Jul-07 1201.45 4.4113-Jul-07 1226.4 8.6216-Jul-07 1217.65 5.1217-Jul-07 1199.3 2.7118-Jul-07 1200.05 4.4219-Jul-07 1209.25 5.2720-Jul-07 1200.9 -0.0523-Jul-07 1230.3 0.3224-Jul-07 1248.9 2.5725-Jul-07 1239.05 3.3126-Jul-07 1217.25 1.4327-Jul-07 1169.35 -3.3030-Jul-07 1168.85 -2.6731-Jul-07 1200.6 -2.411-Aug-07 1161.35 -7.012-Aug-07 1152.4 -6.993-Aug-07 1155 -5.116-Aug-07 1132.5 -3.157-Aug-07 1141.4 -2.358-Aug-07 1171.75 -2.409-Aug-07 1155.65 -0.4910-Aug-07 1130.5 -1.9013-Aug-07 1135.65 -1.6814-Aug-07 1147.65 1.3416-Aug-07 1094 -4.1517-Aug-07 1068.1 -8.8520-Aug-07 1110.9 -3.8721-Aug-07 1103.95 -2.3522-Aug-07 1117.4 -1.6123-Aug-07 1100.15 -4.1424-Aug-07 1097.7 0.3427-Aug-07 1119.6 4.8228-Aug-07 1150.6 3.5729-Aug-07 1162.55 5.31____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 41
  42. 42. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________30-Aug-07 1180.6 5.6631-Aug-07 1171.7 6.503-Sep-07 1176.4 7.174-Sep-07 1176.45 5.085-Sep-07 1172.45 1.906-Sep-07 1184.6 1.907-Sep-07 1196.55 1.3510-Sep-07 1196.1 2.0811-Sep-07 1187.8 0.9712-Sep-07 1182.15 0.4813-Sep-07 1213.5 3.5014-Sep-07 1232.7 4.0617-Sep-07 1226.15 2.4718-Sep-07 1231.15 2.9319-Sep-07 1324.3 11.4920-Sep-07 1326.2 12.1921-Sep-07 1318.45 8.6524-Sep-07 1346.5 9.2325-Sep-07 1396.35 13.8826-Sep-07 1375.7 11.7427-Sep-07 1433 8.2128-Sep-07 1435.6 8.251-Oct-07 1411.65 7.073-Oct-07 1424.8 5.824-Oct-07 1409.7 0.965-Oct-07 1403.15 2.008-Oct-07 1407.35 -1.799-Oct-07 1421.15 -1.0110-Oct-07 1416.95 0.3811-Oct-07 1460.7 2.5212-Oct-07 1432.7 1.6315-Oct-07 1499.2 6.8516-Oct-07 1507.75 7.1317-Oct-07 1462.75 2.9318-Oct-07 1388.2 -2.0319-Oct-07 1366.35 -6.4622-Oct-07 1371.9 -4.2423-Oct-07 1488.2 -0.7324-Oct-07 1513.95 0.4125-Oct-07 1554 6.2426-Oct-07 1546.5 11.4029-Oct-07 1646.95 20.5430-Oct-07 1620.55 18.1231-Oct-07 1653.4 11.101-Nov-07 1690.2 11.642-Nov-07 1770.5 13.935-Nov-07 1716.05 10.966-Nov-07 1708.2 3.727-Nov-07 1616.85 -0.238-Nov-07 1555.35 -5.939-Nov-07 1536.25 -9.1112-Nov-07 1477.35 -16.5613-Nov-07 1574.2 -8.2714-Nov-07 1752.3 2.58____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 42
  43. 43. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________15-Nov-07 1700.45 5.1716-Nov-07 1687.1 8.4719-Nov-07 1654.55 7.7020-Nov-07 1630.3 10.3521-Nov-07 1580.9 0.4322-Nov-07 1591.7 -9.1723-Nov-07 1562.7 -8.1026-Nov-07 1643.35 -2.5927-Nov-07 1632.65 -1.3228-Nov-07 1606.35 -1.4729-Nov-07 1674.4 5.9130-Nov-07 1716.15 7.823-Dec-07 1696.1 8.544-Dec-07 1701.65 3.555-Dec-07 1723.8 5.586-Dec-07 1689.95 5.207-Dec-07 1719.8 2.7110-Dec-07 1687.95 -1.6411-Dec-07 1780.55 4.9812-Dec-07 1784.05 4.8413-Dec-07 1756.35 1.8914-Dec-07 1724.45 2.0417-Dec-07 1683.55 -2.1118-Dec-07 1661.75 -1.5519-Dec-07 1653.05 -7.1620-Dec-07 1642.7 -7.9224-Dec-07 1698.15 -3.3126-Dec-07 1706.75 -1.0327-Dec-07 1745.5 3.6828-Dec-07 1730.3 4.1331-Dec-07 1729.1 4.601-Jan-08 1729.5 5.282-Jan-08 1715.3 1.013-Jan-08 1694.4 -0.724-Jan-08 1696.4 -2.817-Jan-08 1655.4 -4.338-Jan-08 1715.75 -0.779-Jan-08 1744.6 0.8710-Jan-08 1722 0.3911-Jan-08 1764.55 4.1414-Jan-08 1783.15 5.1115-Jan-08 1788.95 8.0716-Jan-08 1673.75 -2.4517-Jan-08 1643.6 -5.7918-Jan-08 1571 -8.7721-Jan-08 1507.1 -14.5922-Jan-08 1426.4 -20.0123-Jan-08 1534.3 -14.2324-Jan-08 1510.4 -9.7625-Jan-08 1608.45 -2.1428-Jan-08 1590.2 1.2229-Jan-08 1537.35 2.0130-Jan-08 1532.95 7.4731-Jan-08 1569.55 2.30____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 43
  44. 44. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________1-Feb-08 1571 4.014-Feb-08 1547.4 -3.805-Feb-08 1512.25 -4.906-Feb-08 1500.1 -2.427-Feb-08 1491.8 -2.688-Feb-08 1441.95 -8.1311-Feb-08 1410.75 -10.2012-Feb-08 1407.65 -9.0313-Feb-08 1468.5 -2.8914-Feb-08 1536.45 2.4215-Feb-08 1562.25 4.7218-Feb-08 1556.85 7.9719-Feb-08 1571.9 11.4220-Feb-08 1537.2 9.2021-Feb-08 1540.85 4.9322-Feb-08 1474.3 -4.0525-Feb-08 1421.75 -8.9926-Feb-08 1454.9 -6.5527-Feb-08 1452.3 -7.6128-Feb-08 1472.55 -4.2129-Feb-08 1456.75 -5.463-Mar-08 1389.9 -5.724-Mar-08 1351.75 -4.925-Mar-08 1332.75 -8.407-Mar-08 1282.25 -11.7110-Mar-08 1311.5 -10.9411-Mar-08 1333.2 -8.4812-Mar-08 1370.55 -1.3913-Mar-08 1299.15 -3.8914-Mar-08 1315.45 -1.3017-Mar-08 1226 -4.3918-Mar-08 1230.95 -6.1419-Mar-08 1272.6 -4.5524-Mar-08 1341.9 -2.0925-Mar-08 1414 8.8426-Mar-08 1439.2 9.4127-Mar-08 1433.2 16.9028-Mar-08 1407 14.3031-Mar-08 1331.25 4.61____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 44
  45. 45. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ICICI BANK12 Days & 24 Days Moving Average of ICICI BANK Close 12 24ICICIBANK Price Days Days2-Apr-07 803.953-Apr-07 807.94-Apr-07 820.955-Apr-07 838.659-Apr-07 858.2510-Apr-07 857.7511-Apr-07 859.512-Apr-07 849.2513-Apr-07 873.4516-Apr-07 888.2517-Apr-07 89418-Apr-07 898.95 854.2419-Apr-07 905.15 862.6720-Apr-07 916.7 871.7423-Apr-07 917.55 879.7924-Apr-07 950.1 889.0825-Apr-07 962.9 897.80 876.6626-Apr-07 961.45 906.44 885.9327-Apr-07 935.15 912.74 893.4130-Apr-07 865.85 914.13 896.053-May-07 869.9 913.83 897.894-May-07 855.85 911.13 897.757-May-07 843.75 906.94 896.938-May-07 839.8 902.01 895.779-May-07 849.35 897.36 895.7710-May-07 842.95 891.22 893.9811-May-07 848.45 885.46 891.6414-May-07 870.4 878.82 890.2515-May-07 886.85 872.48 889.5416-May-07 918.6 868.91 890.3317-May-07 938.05 869.15 891.5918-May-07 951.15 876.26 893.5621-May-07 943 882.35 893.1422-May-07 928.55 888.41 891.1223-May-07 917.85 894.58 888.5624-May-07 911.3 900.54 887.1625-May-07 912.7 905.82 889.9128-May-07 922.8 912.48 893.0229-May-07 920.6 918.49 896.8330-May-07 913.65 922.09 900.9431-May-07 919.15 924.78 905.611-Jun-07 930.45 925.77 910.384-Jun-07 933.35 925.38 915.705-Jun-07 939.05 924.37 921.036-Jun-07 911.2 921.72 923.437-Jun-07 909.1 920.10 924.748-Jun-07 903.45 918.90 923.8511-Jun-07 901.95 918.12 921.72____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 45
  46. 46. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________12-Jun-07 919.35 918.68 919.8513-Jun-07 913.95 917.94 918.1414-Jun-07 905.85 916.71 916.8115-Jun-07 908.7 916.30 916.2718-Jun-07 918.75 916.26 916.7119-Jun-07 945.15 917.49 918.6220-Jun-07 948.15 918.72 920.1121-Jun-07 949.95 919.63 921.8422-Jun-07 954.55 923.24 924.2425-Jun-07 952.6 926.87 926.2126-Jun-07 945.9 930.40 927.1227-Jun-07 938.05 933.41 927.3928-Jun-07 942.85 935.37 927.6229-Jun-07 955.45 938.83 930.222-Jul-07 950.2 942.53 932.643-Jul-07 966.7 947.36 936.364-Jul-07 985.95 952.96 941.305-Jul-07 1003.65 957.83 946.266-Jul-07 981.5 960.61 950.239-Jul-07 970.7 962.34 954.0510-Jul-07 963.95 963.13 957.3011-Jul-07 953.55 963.20 959.3412-Jul-07 967.65 965.02 960.6713-Jul-07 972.5 967.89 962.1016-Jul-07 970.9 970.23 963.3317-Jul-07 973.7 971.75 964.4618-Jul-07 983.35 974.51 966.2719-Jul-07 989.6 976.42 968.8420-Jul-07 985.85 976.41 971.6523-Jul-07 970.1 973.61 973.2524-Jul-07 969.65 972.63 974.0925-Jul-07 958.4 971.60 974.5726-Jul-07 944.55 969.98 973.2727-Jul-07 914.4 966.72 969.0630-Jul-07 923 963.00 964.3131-Jul-07 927.45 959.25 961.141-Aug-07 891 952.59 956.452-Aug-07 901.4 946.56 952.773-Aug-07 915.5 940.91 950.536-Aug-07 886.9 932.35 945.787-Aug-07 869.9 922.69 939.748-Aug-07 884 915.51 934.639-Aug-07 889.7 908.85 929.6910-Aug-07 864.1 900.99 922.6813-Aug-07 873.85 895.10 915.8714-Aug-07 878.65 892.12 909.5616-Aug-07 832.15 884.55 901.4517-Aug-07 824.7 875.99 892.9220-Aug-07 872.35 874.43 887.8621-Aug-07 829.05 868.40 881.0622-Aug-07 846.1 862.62 877.0523-Aug-07 824.95 857.46 871.2824-Aug-07 833.8 854.45 865.7727-Aug-07 883.55 854.41 865.33____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 46
  47. 47. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________28-Aug-07 862.9 852.18 863.0729-Aug-07 857.1 851.60 859.6330-Aug-07 873.05 851.53 858.8231-Aug-07 888.4 852.34 859.913-Sep-07 907.9 858.65 861.314-Sep-07 908.6 865.65 862.425-Sep-07 915.4 869.23 865.446-Sep-07 920.9 876.89 868.217-Sep-07 920.05 883.05 870.6410-Sep-07 910.9 890.21 875.2811-Sep-07 901.55 895.86 879.8012-Sep-07 885.35 896.01 880.5613-Sep-07 884.05 897.77 883.8014-Sep-07 906.3 901.87 887.3417-Sep-07 895.15 903.71 891.4718-Sep-07 924.55 906.73 896.8119-Sep-07 973.55 912.20 902.1020-Sep-07 967.1 917.07 908.2321-Sep-07 966.05 921.29 914.6424-Sep-07 996.3 927.58 921.8925-Sep-07 993.05 933.66 928.0426-Sep-07 1020 942.75 934.6427-Sep-07 1028.25 953.31 941.6828-Sep-07 1062.4 968.06 950.321-Oct-07 1057.8 982.54 958.383-Oct-07 1086.55 997.56 968.174-Oct-07 1068 1011.97 977.415-Oct-07 1036.4 1021.29 985.348-Oct-07 1021.2 1025.26 993.349-Oct-07 1045.65 1031.80 1002.8410-Oct-07 1070.55 1040.51 1012.5011-Oct-07 1091.25 1048.43 1024.0412-Oct-07 1055 1053.59 1031.7115-Oct-07 1097.45 1060.04 1039.0016-Oct-07 1159.65 1070.99 1050.3317-Oct-07 1117.1 1075.55 1059.2118-Oct-07 1036.5 1073.78 1061.5819-Oct-07 1022.8 1068.46 1063.3322-Oct-07 1061.35 1067.91 1065.7623-Oct-07 1102 1073.38 1070.1024-Oct-07 1099.9 1079.93 1072.3025-Oct-07 1144.65 1088.18 1077.4126-Oct-07 1187.5 1097.93 1083.3529-Oct-07 1240.65 1110.38 1093.5130-Oct-07 1240.2 1125.81 1105.4931-Oct-07 1254.05 1138.86 1119.191-Nov-07 1298.3 1150.42 1134.052-Nov-07 1333.4 1168.44 1149.515-Nov-07 1269.85 1187.89 1160.026-Nov-07 1241.8 1206.14 1171.017-Nov-07 1200.8 1217.76 1177.098-Nov-07 1169.05 1223.35 1177.649-Nov-07 1144.45 1227.06 1179.2512-Nov-07 1145.35 1227.12 1185.65____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 47
  48. 48. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________13-Nov-07 1173.7 1225.97 1194.5314-Nov-07 1278.55 1229.13 1207.3115-Nov-07 1241.65 1229.25 1215.5216-Nov-07 1220.05 1226.41 1222.5919-Nov-07 1187.7 1217.20 1225.1220-Nov-07 1160.45 1202.78 1223.5321-Nov-07 1106.45 1189.17 1215.6422-Nov-07 1145.35 1181.13 1210.0623-Nov-07 1139.4 1176.01 1203.3126-Nov-07 1156.8 1174.99 1194.9927-Nov-07 1132.3 1173.98 1183.1628-Nov-07 1122.9 1172.11 1174.5129-Nov-07 1161.75 1171.11 1169.8130-Nov-07 1178.4 1162.77 1168.493-Dec-07 1162 1156.13 1168.074-Dec-07 1139.7 1149.43 1167.795-Dec-07 1164.05 1147.46 1168.896-Dec-07 1200.7 1150.82 1170.487-Dec-07 1247.6 1162.58 1168.6610-Dec-07 1271.45 1173.09 1170.4111-Dec-07 1314.3 1187.66 1175.9612-Dec-07 1289.9 1198.75 1181.9713-Dec-07 1242.85 1207.97 1186.8214-Dec-07 1206.95 1214.97 1192.7317-Dec-07 1166.25 1215.35 1193.9618-Dec-07 1137.7 1211.95 1193.8619-Dec-07 1163.4 1212.07 1194.2520-Dec-07 1157.5 1213.55 1195.7324-Dec-07 1205.95 1217.05 1200.6126-Dec-07 1218.9 1218.56 1203.9827-Dec-07 1247.25 1218.53 1208.0328-Dec-07 1226.7 1214.80 1211.8331-Dec-07 1238.7 1208.50 1217.661-Jan-08 1228.75 1203.41 1221.462-Jan-08 1267.25 1205.44 1225.383-Jan-08 1228.95 1207.28 1224.284-Jan-08 1286.3 1217.28 1225.157-Jan-08 1362.55 1236.02 1227.998-Jan-08 1339.95 1250.73 1230.949-Jan-08 1307.95 1263.27 1234.7610-Jan-08 1356.15 1275.78 1243.5411-Jan-08 1435 1293.79 1259.3514-Jan-08 1410 1307.35 1275.3715-Jan-08 1352.2 1317.81 1286.4716-Jan-08 1368.3 1328.61 1298.8717-Jan-08 1322.1 1336.39 1305.7118-Jan-08 1248.85 1334.86 1307.4721-Jan-08 1173.2 1330.21 1303.1122-Jan-08 1124.95 1316.77 1297.1323-Jan-08 1151.45 1299.18 1291.9924-Jan-08 1131.85 1281.83 1286.2925-Jan-08 1261.3 1277.95 1285.9428-Jan-08 1273.95 1271.10 1288.5929-Jan-08 1220.45 1253.22 1284.72____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 48
  49. 49. IL & FS INVESTSMART SECURITIES LTD_______________________________________________________________30-Jan-08 1187.4 1234.67 1274.4131-Jan-08 1147 1217.57 1263.061-Feb-08 1198.15 1203.39 1256.614-Feb-08 1212.25 1194.23 1248.145-Feb-08 1191.3 1189.44 1233.816-Feb-08 1152.05 1187.68 1218.637-Feb-08 1106.1 1186.10 1204.168-Feb-08 1073.9 1179.64 1186.8411-Feb-08 1033.85 1171.48 1169.8812-Feb-08 1067.25 1155.30 1159.2013-Feb-08 1101.8 1140.96 1155.0014-Feb-08 1161.85 1136.08 1157.1715-Feb-08 1190.9 1136.37 1159.4918-Feb-08 1209.8 1141.60 1164.0819-Feb-08 1220.2 1143.44 1161.6620-Feb-08 1168.3 1139.78 1155.4421-Feb-08 1141.3 1135.61 1150.7922-Feb-08 1099.8 1131.25 1145.6425-Feb-08 1107.1 1131.34 1143.2926-Feb-08 1117.85 1135.00 1138.5627-Feb-08 1116.95 1141.93 1132.9628-Feb-08 1105.85 1145.14 1127.9329-Feb-08 1088.5 1144.03 1124.193-Mar-08 1024.6 1132.60 1119.404-Mar-08 971.1 1114.28 1113.355-Mar-08 960.15 1093.48 1109.027-Mar-08 893.4 1066.24 1098.7910-Mar-08 871.85 1041.54 1085.2611-Mar-08 856.65 1017.82 1067.3112-Mar-08 880.3 999.53 1049.0413-Mar-08 837.55 977.06 1027.1414-Mar-08 876.95 956.99 1006.9517-Mar-08 759.95 927.24 982.9318-Mar-08 768.2 899.10 960.9919-Mar-08 768.2 872.41 941.4824-Mar-08 802.2 853.88 923.5425-Mar-08 878.85 846.19 909.4926-Mar-08 843.95 836.50 893.4327-Mar-08 834.55 831.60 877.4728-Mar-08 835.5 828.57 862.5931-Mar-08 769.4 821.30 847.57____________________________________________________________ BABASAB PATIL 49

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