A case study of Lebanon, and lessons that can be learned in how to ensure peace and democratic institutions in multi-ethnic states in post-conflict situations.

1. The Psychology of Political Conflict and Socioeconomic Development
A Case Study for Nations with Multi-ethnic and Multi-sectarian Populations
Key Concepts:
Happiness, Wellbeing, Social Conflict, Peace, Balanced Economic Development
Author Bio
BabakFarrahi is a UniversityLecturer at the University of Guadalajara andtheUniversidad
Pedagogica Nacional in Mexico, specializing in subjects of Globalization and Education,
and Transparency and Democratic Institutions. He has an M.A. in International Relations
from King’s College London and an M.Sc. in Latin American Studies (Development) from
the School of Latin American Studies at the University of London. Previously he studied
his B.A. in International Studies with Economics at the University of Birmingham. He has
spoken at international conferences,hadworkpublishedonlineatthe DiplomaticCourier
and previously taught at other academic institutions.

2. Introduction:
There are certain assumptions that are taken for granted in public policy and subsequently
these ideas are not given their due thought and consideration. One such example is the
notion that happiness should be a goal for governments to pursue that happy societies
are those that develop peacefully. The psychological elements of happiness and
development are not always accounted for when we look at public policy instruments,
when in fact they represent the underlying factors that can determine the success or
failure of the project.
Considering the ubiquity of polling globally to measure the levels of satisfaction of a
populace, whether it be generally or in relation to the job performance of a particular
politician it is surprising then that in many cases we see attention being directed to other
issues. One possible explanation could be that it can sometimes be hard to dissect the
different components of happiness or satisfaction, so for academic analysis it can be
easierto use socioeconomicfactorsasmoremeasurabledevicestodeterminehappiness,
but nonetheless if we recall that at the very birth of the United States of America the
pursuit of happiness was a determined value and goal. Given then that we accept that as
human beings one of our primary motivations is to be happy, we should also expect our
governments to place a priority on establishing the conditions necessary for our security
and happiness.
By measuring wellbeing, we are able to monitor progress of certain policies, as well as
helping in the design or improvement of policy designs.
If, however, this has proven to be a difficult to achieve in the supposedly mature and
stabledemocracies,howisit possibleto attainthese goalsin a country tragicallyaffected
by violence? It maybe possible through the study of the case of Lebanon that we can get
a clearer picture.
The Lebanese Case
Lebanon has often held a particular place in the imagination of many, principally as an
exotic gateway to the East, but subsequently as story of success or failure on a political
scale. The reason for this is due to its religious diversity, so in times of stability and peace
it is perceived as an example to follow, only for this to swiftly change should there be
crisis, as the narrativeshiftsto that of the inevitabilityof sectarianconflict.Atthismoment
in time the country once again finds itself heading in the right direction so that in these
troubled times, where many choose to focus on the differences between humans, others
look to Lebanon to fi d stability through diversity.
Lebanon is home to a truly diverse mix of religious groups, and this has created a
situation where the society is divided essentially on those lines, with creed being the
principle, though not the only, distinguishing element of identity. In accordance with this
reality, the political arrangements in the country over the past two centuries have been
on the basis of ensuring shared power, autonomous communities and no single group
domination, and despite, or perhaps because of fairly constant foreign intervention that

3. was ensured, but with the onset of violence and a collapse into civil war by 1975, the
underlying stresses within this system had become clear (Ellis, 2002).
By the middleof the1970s, Lebanonwasfacingsignificantpressureinits abilitytouphold
the existing political structure that was based on a power-sharing arrangement between
Muslims and Christians. Given that demographic shifts had begun to favor the Muslim
population, they wanted to readdress the balance of power to reflect their numerical
superiority. Obviously, this was not to the liking of the Christian side, and events led to
an outbreakof conflict betweenextremistfactionsfrombothsidesof the religiousdivide.
The situation deteriorated to the extent that Syria intervened shortly after, and the
conflagration spread to include Israel and many private armies. The Syrian involvement
was not welcomed by many Christians, but remained the most significant outside
intervention when peacekeeping forces left following attacks. By the time members of
the Lebanese Parliament met with representatives of various Arab countries in Taif in
Saudi Arabia, one of the vital issues to be resolved was the relation between Syria and
Lebanon, as well as resolving the internal structural problems that had led to the
instability in the first place. In the peace that emerged Syria remained a principal actor in
Lebanon, making the decisions on key government appointments and in effect, it was an
annulment of Lebanesesovereignty.Despitethis, peaceheld,largelybecauseof the large
Syrian military presence, which has worked as a sufficient deterrence to future rebellion
(Wantchekon, 2000).
A major problem in dividedsocieties, those split by ethnic, racial or religious differences,
is that it canleadto a tyranny of the majorityif the numericallysuperiorsectionis allowed
to become dominant. The difference here with more mature democracies in Western
societies is the evolving nature of the coalitions that come to power. The underlying
assumption is that in these countries power changes hands because different groups
coalesce around election time on the basis of shared interests meaning that diverse
voices can be heard, a process that is to be repeated in every election cycle, whilst in the
aforementioned dividedsocieties, coalitions are more rigid because of the unchanging
nature of the key distinguishing difference that being religion or race (Byman, 2003).
Federalism, decentralization and guaranteeing local and minority rights can alleviate
someof the concerns aboutethnic majoritycontrol andthese wouldput controlsin place
to check measures for political and electoral domination. The issue here is that in a
fractured country it could be difficult to ensure stability because federalism opens the
door to certain fragilities to central government as institutions designed to empower
local governments have the consequence of limiting the powers of the national
government. This was the case in Lebanon wherethe Christian minoritysought to ensure
a weak army for fear to ensure that the Muslim majority would not also have military
dominance too. Local communities organized their own militias, and beyond that, they
also developed their own local institutions such as schools, only exacerbating tensions
and differences. Another lesson from the Lebanese experience was that the presence of
the French offered the necessary security during the transition process (Byman, 2003).

4. Certain socioeconomic factors could have contributed as inequality was associated with
the entrenched sectariandivisions,with many Muslims reflectingontheir relativepoverty
compared to their Christian counterparts saw the root cause in the existing political
arrangements, but the evidence suggests that though that could have motivated some
individuals it was not cause enough for the war, rather, it may have been that the rigidity
of the political system designed to ensure stability in fact did the opposite because the
changing socioeconomic dynamics of Lebanon were not being reflected politically
(World Bank, 2003). This ties into work done on the psychological aspects of intergroup
conflict. Berkowitz for example, talks of four factors that can lead to such eruptions of
violence,beginningwith the easy identificationof groupsof peopleintosingleperceived
collectives that can be assumed be different for a particular reason. Once these divisions
within society are established then the real problems emerge if one group believes that
their ‘frustration’ is due to another group, that somehow this other segment of society is
not permitting them to achieve true happiness, be it for economic or political reasons,
and this frustration can increaseif it is manipulatedforpolitical gains(McNeil,2005).This
scenario played itself out tragically in Lebanon but these events support more the
reasoning of someone like Berkowitz rather than the theories of Huntingdon and his
‘Clash of Civilizations’ which though still popular in some quarters as proven to be
academically difficult to establish (Tusicisny, 2004).
The damage done to the country was extensive and when finally the war came to an end
after seventeen years there was an obvious necessity to restore order and structure to
stabilize the country and to ensure peace for the future. One source of criticism in the
recovery plan for Lebanon was the focus on the economic rebuilding, particularly in
relation to a perceived over-relianceon foreign investment and lack of attention paid to
other important factors (Norkonmaa, 1995).
For example, it has been commented that denial and collective amnesia are the principle
coping mechanisms in post war Lebanon (Ellis, 2002). In part this may have been for the
need to ensure stability after fifteen years of conflict, so it is easy to turn a blind eye to
certain realities.
Psychology of negotiationcanplay an importantbut often overlookedrolein the ending
conflict. There is a need to take into account the importance of self-image and how this
relates to the perceptions that all parties might hold during the process of negotiation.
The tendency to prioritize one’s own needs and grievances can blind that side to any
grievancesor demands,legitimateornot,that the other partymight have.For this reason
we have totake both rational andnon-rational factorsinto considerationwhenanalyzing
the behavior of the counterparts across the negotiating table. So when considering a
situation of conflict resolution there are several steps that ought to be taken, starting
with a “needs analysis”, whereby there is the presentation of the needs, concerns and
fears of each side. This is to be followed by the stage of “realistic empathy”, which
requires the consideration of the perspective of the other. For the final stage it is
necessary to develop trust to the extent that both sides can see that there is a
commitment to peace as they also view conflict as a shared problem. This way we can

5. see that there is a definite benefit to policy-making and the process as a whole to
acknowledge the value of a social-psychological framework (Salzinger, 2003). It would
appear however that that was not the way matters were conducted in the case of
Lebanon. Firstly because the process was essentially driven by an outside forces, that
being Syria, which has perpetuated a role in Lebanon that necessitated a constant
involvement for a prolonged period through the undermining of state institutions and
widespreadcorruption(WorldBank,2003). This ledto a distinct dissatisfactionwithinthe
country.
The Central Role of Social Psychology
Returning to our central idea, happiness as an overall metric and a goal in public policy
is often not given its due, but it is necessary to acknowledge that psychological health
and wellbeing arenotonly the result of socioeconomicprosperitybutalsoa direct cause.
Most peopleareonly concerned with havingopportunitiesin a fairand balancedsystem,
and the desire for political power may emerge only when there is the feeling that the
system is out of balance. In situations where unhappiness is allowedto grow, chasms can
emerge between the different groups in society, making the politics and economics of
fear more profitable than that of peace. In the case of Lebanon it can be seen that the
exposure to violence and conflict has caused a generation to suffer psychological
consequences that affect their daily life or living conditions. The fact that those of the
same generation that managed to leave the country do not display these characteristics,
so we can discount cultural or religious explanations for certain behaviour (Yones, 1998).
As a means to measure subjective wellbeing, a three-part framework was developed so
to understand the causes and the psychological andsocial costof the warand that public
policy is more targeted to the areas of need. The first part looked at the general outlook
on the subject of hopes and progress, with an overwhelming majority indicating their
belief in some progress since the end of the civil war. This positivity did not persist in the
second part, when the respondents were asked about their opinion on their living
conditions when looking back over the previous twelve months, very few responded
positively, just 11 per cent. This means that though most can identify that the situation
has improved,it is only slightand not sufficientto generatesufficienthopefor the future.
In the final section, the survey asked citizens the causes of their stress, and the
government led the way, followed by physical safety and income concerns.
By way of conclusion it is possible to see that when faith in the governing bodies in a
country is low, it is often related to the perception that the general population have of
the ability of those in charge to ensure the safety and economic wellbeing of all.
By way of a recommendation, the suggestion is that by putting place a framework that
wouldfurther prioritize wellbeing andhappinesseconomics,through regular, specifically
targeted surveys, with the results feeding into policy decision-making, so that a more
meritocratic, socio-economically mobile society can emerge. In addition, other
recommendationscouldincludeeducationreformandpoliciestoreversethe braindrain,

6. could ensure greater expertise and knowledge in the workforce, helping push the drive
to a more equitable and efficient economy (Yones, 1998).
The value of such work is that it moves us beyond the paradigm that subjective issues
cannot be studied or quantified, or that they somehow are of less importance, than
objective metrics. Instead we can move forward in terms of policy proposal, designs and
implementations, because we can be better informed using such a framework as the one
utilized in this example in Lebanon. In a way, it is very logical that the goal ought to be
the happiness of the population and to ensure that we should have in place the correct
metrics to determine the desired path, and yet, for so long it has been overlooked, and
by using this Lebanese example we can move forward internationally.
There are, however, some key takeaways and caveats, that should be considered to
ensure future success. Whilst a Subjective Well-Being (SWB) survey is a useful tool, it is
important that the independence of the researchers is guaranteed to secure the viability
and confidence in the results. It is also an important measure to conduct such surveys
annuallyin differentgeographical pointsof a country so asnot to havea biasedortainted
picture. One of the main issues highlighted in the case of Lebanon was the lack of trust,
or faith, in governmental institutions and their leaders, and this is a key point worth
reiterating because as a practical policy issue it is of great concern. This is because it is
necessary here to take steps towards improving trust through having an independent
judiciary, respect for the rule of law, punishment for and eventual elimination of corrupt
practices,educationreformtomouldfuture leadersfroman earlyageto believeinvalues
that promote peace and prosperity, and the use of technology to achieve these goals.
Finally, it is worth noting that the scope of the survey was limited to just 250 adults, so
future samples and applications of this framework need to be broader.
It may have been that at the time, the focus of development and closer ties to the EU
was economicallydriven,but there is an addedvaluein that through closercollaboration
institutions can be strengthened and that external pressure is necessary to ensure that
wider reform takes place so that the society and economy modernizes sufficiently to
provide happiness and opportunities to the populace (Saudi, 2001).
Another aspect to consider is how we conceptualize democracy, so instead of thinking
of it as a creation of the will of the people, it is often rather a product of top-down
decision-making, whereby elites come to an agreement whereby democracy is seen as
the most efficient means to share power and the people become the enforcer of this
contract because they are the most acceptable option. This is how in many ways
democracy emerges in a post conflict situation, when elites cede power to the people
because it could be the only way to bring the fighting to a conclusion. Further analysis
shows that other factors can contribute to the success of the new democratic
arrangement and transition. If there is an international organization involved in a short-
term capacity to ensure peace and stability it could be conducive in ensuring elite
cooperation,thoughthat wouldchange if it werethe case that the interferencewaslong-
term or just one country ratherthan a multi-national coalition.Additionallyitis necessary
to have a heterogeneous electorate, that way ensuring the possibility of political power

7. for both factions, a situation that would have to remain constant, otherwise one faction
would lose faith in the democratic system and look to gain power through other means.
It is also effective in maintaining stability because it allows for a single third party
enforcer, that being the people, and combining it with the impartiality of the electoral
process. This undermines the belief that strongmen or military rule ensure stability,
because it has been shown that over the long-run they provide the exact opposite, as
they lead to instability and violence (Wantchekon & Neeman, 2002).
This is reflected in the Middle East now, as those countries which were under dictatorial
rule for so longare facingupheaval whilstLebanononce againrepresents a success story
as democratic institutions and structures mature, evolve and become bedded-in.
By no means has the process been perfect but after seventeen years of conflict and
national trauma, the fact that it has managed to maintain stability in an unstable region,
free itself to a certain extent from Syrian interference, and take steps towards a happier
society is a considerable achievement and that there is great value in continuing to place
a focus on the psychological wellbeing of the populace.
Conclusions
Public Policy design based on Subjective Well-Being is increasingly becoming part of the
norm with the recognition that a happy populace is a productive one. Surveys of the
nature identified in the Lebanese case are archetypes of the way in which policy flaws or
governance blind spots can be identified quickly and efficiently allowing the necessary
course correction to take place. It can also enable those charged with the responsibility
of taking decisions or designing policies to have access to greater understanding of the
needs of the population and to be more informed.
By studying the Lebanese situation more thoroughly we can gain an even clearer picture
of the successes that could potentially be replicated and failures to avoid, but especially
in post-conflict situations, as well as identifying improvements for future cases. This
example also serves to demonstrate that by adopting these new, more inclusive and
holistic approaches to policy design and implementation we can move beyond the
traditional vision of conflict riven countries destined to replicate the same mistakes and
instead we can learn that multi-ethnic, multi-cultural countries can develop democratic
structures and stable economic institutions after the conclusion of sectarian violence.
As we have seen in the case of Lebanon violence can erupt after a period of tension and
sectarian strife if certain political actors see the motivation to profit off the situation, and
that it can be a prolongedprocessto ensure peaceand to establishpeace,oftenbecause
of the need for outside intervention. Once peace is established, such structure such as
the Subjective Well-Being framework is important because by taking the necessary steps
towards the happiness of the population we can diminish the motivation and incentives
for political actors to promote or instigate violence.
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