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Offshore renewables minimising OPEX Bruce Valpy Nantes 21 May 2015

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Presentation given by Bruce Valpy, MD of BVGA on how Offshore renewable cost of energy can be minimize OPEX requirements by carrying our the 10 steps to success

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Offshore renewables minimising OPEX Bruce Valpy Nantes 21 May 2015

  1. 1. Offshore renewables: Minimising OPEX Nantes, 21 May 2015 Bruce Valpy Managing Director © BVG Associates 2015
  2. 2. 2/11 • Why focus on turbine reliability • Reliability centred approach • 10 steps to success Contents Justification Offshore Renewables: Minimising OPEX Introduction © BVG Associates 2015 • BAV add Selected clients BVG Associates • Market analysis and business development • Supply chain development • Economic impact assessment • Support to industrialisation • Project implementation • FIT project development (UK only) • SCADA & condition monitoring • O&M technical support • Technical innovation & engineering analysis • Support to investment in technology • R&D programme management • Design and engineering services
  3. 3. 3/11 • Why focus on reliability • Cost of energy • Health and safety • Reliability centred approach • 10 steps to success Contents Justification Reliability centred approach during wind turbine development Introduction © BVG Associates 2015 • BAV add Selected clients BVG Associates • Market analysis and business development • Supply chain development • Economic impact assessment • Support to industrialisation • Project implementation • FIT project development (UK only) • SCADA & condition monitoring • O&M technical support • Technical innovation & engineering analysis • Support to investment in technology • R&D programme management • Design and engineering services
  4. 4. Cost of energy Basics LCOE breakdown for project with 6MW turbinesLCOE Where: LCOE Levelised cost of energy in £/MWh = revenue needed (from whatever source) to obtain rate of return W on investment over life of the wind farm (tax, inflation etc. not modelled) Ci Capital expenditure in € in year i Oi Operational expenditure in € in year i Di Decommissioning expenditure in € in year i Et Energy production in MWh in year i W Weighted average cost of capital in % (real) = (cost of debt x % dept ) + (return on equity x equity portion) n Operating lifetime of wind farm (baseline 20 years) m Years before start of operation when expenditure first incurred i i year of lifetime (-m, ..., 1, 2, …n) Project development and consenting up to FID 1% Project management and contingenciesfrom FID to WCD 2% Nacelle 20% Rotor 15% Tower 5% Foundation supply 11% Array cables 2% Foundation installation 5%Array cable installation 2% Turbine installation 1% Transmission charges 20% Unplanned service 8% Operation and planned maintenance 5% Other 4% Decommissioning 1% Operation maintenance and service 36% Project4% Balance of plantsupply 13% Installation 8% CAPEX 64% Turbine supply 39% 4/11© BVG Associates 2015 Source: BVG Associates
  5. 5. Why focus on reliability The case for focus on wind turbine reliability Spend breakdown © BVG Associates 2015 Wind farm OPEX 16% of LCOE Unplanned Service 47% Turbine ~90% Foundation Array cables Other Planned Maintenance Operations Transmission OPEX If... • If turbines were 100% reliable, so just needed visits for planned maintenance... • Wind farm OPEX reduced by 43% • Lifetime expenditure reduced by 7% • Lost energy due to turbine reliability reduced by 90% • LCOE reduced by 11% • Visits down 70% • Accidents down by >80% • Increased certainty would increase pool of investors and decrease cost of capital • Many innovations beyond turbines, also… 5/11 Turbine electrical, 34% Hub and pitch system, 20% Gearbox and main shaft, 11% Generator, 8% Blades, 4% Array cable, 3% Support structure, 3% Other turbine, 16% Other wind farm, 2% Source: BVG Associates
  6. 6.  Lots good  Few components / systems tested thoroughly  Poor justification for component survival (beyond calculations)  Main component exchange not designed in / tested  Not possible to easily replace wear parts  Poor / incomplete manuals and troubleshooting guides  Track record of unreliable systems / repeat faults  Training strategies not implemented  Site work records incomplete  SCADA report errors  Significant inefficiencies on site  Type Certificate (does not consider the above) Why focus on reliability The case for focus on wind turbine reliability Where our experience comes from © BVG Associates 2015 Due diligence - experience 6/11
  7. 7. Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach 1a. Reliability budget © BVG Associates 2015 Turbine MTBF* = 3 months (90 days) Rotor 365 days Blade 900days Hub Assembly 600 days Blade bearing 3650 days Pitch System 450 days Other 3650 days Nacelle 200 days Drive Train MTBF = 700 days Gearbox MTBF = 3650 days Generator MTBF = 3650 days Converter MTBF = 2000 days Other MTBF = 2700 days Yaw system MTBF = 900 days Control system MTBF = 700 days Auxiliary systems MTBF = 900 days Tower & Transition Piece 300 days 10 Steps to success 1. Reliability and OPEX budgets (and model) * MTBF (large vessel intervention, small vessel intervention & remote reset) 7/11
  8. 8. Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach 5. Demonstration of maintenance procedures © BVG Associates 2015 10 Steps to success 2. ‘Rules of thumb’ 1. Reliability and OPEX budgets (and model) 4. Test and verification 3. Component reliability reviews 5. Demonstration of maintenance procedures 8/11
  9. 9. Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach 6. Joined up SCADA/control/CM © BVG Associates 2015 10 Steps to success 2. ‘Rules of thumb’ 1. Reliability and OPEX budgets (and model) 4. Test and verification 3. Component reliability reviews 6. Joined up SCADA/ control/CM 5. Demonstration of maintenance procedures Holistic decisions CMS Engineering 9/11
  10. 10. Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach 9. Fix first time approach © BVG Associates 2015 10 Steps to success 2. ‘Rules of thumb’ 1. Reliability and OPEX budgets (and model) 4. Test and verification 3. Component reliability reviews 9. Fix first time approach 8. Useful, accurate data 7. Feedback from site 6. Joined up SCADA/ control/CM 5. Demonstration of maintenance procedures 10/11
  11. 11. Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach 10. Reliability champion © BVG Associates 2015 10 Steps to success 2. ‘Rules of thumb’ 1. Reliability and OPEX budgets (and model) 4. Test and verification 3. Component reliability reviews 10. Reliability champion 9. Fix first time approach 8. Useful, accurate data 7. Feedback from site 6. Joined up SCADA/ control/CM 5. Demonstration of maintenance procedures Bill Shankly, Liverpool Football Club 11/11
  12. 12. Thank you BVG Associates Ltd The Blackthorn Centre Purton Road Cricklade, Swindon SN6 6HY England, UK tel +44 1793 752 308 info@bvgassociates.co.uk @bvgassociates www.bvgassociates.co.uk The Boathouse Silversands Aberdour, Fife KY3 0TZ Scotland, UK tel +44 1383 870 014 Many of our reports and presentations are free to download from www.bvgassociates.co.uk. This presentation and its content is copyright of BVG Associates Limited - © BVG Associates 2015. All rights are reserved. You may not, except with our express written permission, commercially exploit the content. BVG Associates LLC 4444 Second Avenue Detroit, MI 48201 USA tel +1 206 459 8506

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