Technical Analysis Class 2

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  • Feb 4, 2008
  • Technical Analysis Class 2

    1. 1. Technical Analysis Class-2
    2. 2. Chart Basics, Volume, Support and Resistance, Trendlines, Moving Averages (SPY Daily Chart July 2007-Presnt Stage 3 Top and Stage 4 Decline) Yellow=50 Day Moving Average Blue= 200 Day Moving Average
    3. 3. Trendlines and Pivots
    4. 4. Candlesticks <ul><li>Price Representation </li></ul>
    5. 5. Candlesticks: Hammer “Hammering out a bottom”
    6. 6. Candlesticks: Shooting Star “There’s Trouble Ahead”
    7. 7. Candlesticks: Stars, Dojis, Hanging Man and Engulfing Candles
    8. 8. Simple and Exponential Moving Averages Yellow= 50 Day Simple Moving Average Blue= 200 Day Simple Moving Average Yellow Dot= 50 Day Exponential Moving Average Blue Dot= 200 Day Exponential Moving Average
    9. 9. The Four Stages of a Market : 1 Base/Accumulation 2 Mark-up/Advance 3 Top/Distribution 4 Decline (HOV 9-Day Chart 2000-2008) Yellow=approx 50-day M.A. Blue=approx 200-Day M.A.
    10. 10. Stage 1: Base Breakout Pullback Volume Advance (HOV 3-Day Chart 1999-2001)
    11. 11. Stage: 2 Advance Fractal-Staging (HOV 3-Day Chart 2000-2005)
    12. 12. Stage 3-Top Yellow= 50-day moving average Blue= 200-day moving average Fractal Staging (HOV Daily Chart 2004-2008)
    13. 13. Stage 4 Decline (HOV Daily Chart 2007-Present) Yellow=50-Day Moving Average Blue= 200-Day Moving Average
    14. 14. Moving Averages: Simple vs. Exponential Yellow= 50-Day Simple moving average Blue= 200-Day Simple moving average Yellow= 50-Day Exponential moving average Blue= 200-Day Exponential moving average
    15. 15. Moving Averages: 5 and 10 Day Simple Moving Averages The direction of a 5-sma on a daily chart often signals the character of the short-term trend. A breakout above a 10-sma/ema often signals the start of a short-term move. (SMH Daily Chart, Sept 2007-Feb 2008)
    16. 16. Macro/Micro: 5 and 10 sma on a Weekly Chart A: 5 sma rising and x-over the 10 sma +7.64% B: Lateral Trend +.54% C: Rising 5 sma and X-over the 10 sma 3.45%-8.83% D: Lateral Trend =+1.03% E: Declining 5 sma and X-under the 10 sma= -15.13%/-21.67%
    17. 17. Gaps: Breakaway, Continuation (measuring/run away), and Exhaustion (IMO Daily Chart Oct 2007-Present)
    18. 18. Gaps: Filling the Gap, Volume Confirmation, Support and Resistance (VLO Daily Chart, March 2007-Feb 2008)
    19. 19. Exhaustion Gaps
    20. 20. Breakaway Gap
    21. 21. Wilder’s RSI: Divergence Analysis A) Negative Divergence between 1 & 2 B) Positive Divergence between 3 & 4 C) Positive Divergence between 4 & 5 D) Positive Divergence between 6 & 7 (SKF 10-min Chart 1/24/2008 - 2/4/2008)
    22. 22. Wilder’s RSI A) Positive Divergence between 1 & 2 B) Negative (Relative) Divergence between 3 & 4 C) Negative Divergence between 4 & 5 C) Negative Divergence between 5 & 6 B/C) Negative (Relative) Divergence between 7 & 8

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