Trends in the World Traditional &
Renewable Heating Markets

Krystyna Dawson
Heating & Renewables
Manager
BSRIA WMI
Januar...
Agenda
Worlds largest traditional heating markets
Growth in traditional heating, 2013

Development by type of traditional ...
World Heating Market Value
by region, 2012
Europe*

North America
Total: US$ 5,658 million

Total: US$ 18,897 million

Tot...
Growth in traditional heating US vs Europe
US heating market by volume

% Growth in 2013(e) by type of heating
products

D...
Main changes in traditional Heating markets,
2013
Importance
Energy efficiency targets
drive condensing boiler sales
Incre...
World Trend in Domestic Boiler
Technology overview
Sales of Non-Condensing units

Sales of Condensing units

6,000

6,000
...
Traditional & renewable space heating
US vs Europe
US sales of heat
generators, volume

Europe sales of heat
generators, v...
Traditional & renewable water heating
US vs Europe
US sales of
water heaters, volume
‘000 units
12,000

Europe sales of
wa...
World Renewable Market Value
by region, 2012
Europe*

USA
Total: US$ 343.0 mln
El. Hydronic
HP
10%

ST systems
13%
Gas HP
...
World Heat recovery
2020 outlook
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020
2012

2020

CAGR 2012-2020

40.0%
35.2%
35...
World Heat Pump
2020 Outlook
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020

units

growth
2012

60%

2020

CAGR 2012-2020...
System integration in family homes in Europe

Will gain
importance with
increasing
share of RES in
electricity
production
...
Renewable technologies likely to be installed in
European dwellings in the long term
 Existing dwellings:

 New dwelling...
Renewables sales curve in Europe until 2035
Powerful drivers for renewables after 2020

Units*
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,0...
Thank you

Contact:
Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
Direct: +44 ...
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  1. 1. Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets Krystyna Dawson Heating & Renewables Manager BSRIA WMI January 2014
  2. 2. Agenda Worlds largest traditional heating markets Growth in traditional heating, 2013 Development by type of traditional heating products Penetration of renewables in the US and in Europe World renewable markets 2020 world outlook - HRV, Heat pumps, solar thermals European winning renewables by 2030 Excellence in Market Intelligence 2 2
  3. 3. World Heating Market Value by region, 2012 Europe* North America Total: US$ 5,658 million Total: US$ 18,897 million Total: US$ 5,214 million Radiators 23% DB 39% WH 74% Japan DB 12% CB 2% UFH 11% CB 5% UFH 7% CB 4% DB** 14% WH 79% WH 23% CB 5% Radiators 0% Europe Japan China 352 778 127 1,360 • Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine ** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces. Excellence in Market Intelligence DB 9% WH 47% Population (million inhabitants) USA + Canada Radiators 1% 3 Radiators 20% UFH 19% China Total: US$ 7,100 million 3 UFH 6%
  4. 4. Growth in traditional heating US vs Europe US heating market by volume % Growth in 2013(e) by type of heating products DB 4% CB 0% Rad+UFH 2% by value 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% WH 94% 6.1% DB 14% 6.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.4% 3.1% USA Europe 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% -2.0% DB CB WH Radiators Europe heating market by volume WH 12% 1.0% -1.0% Rad+UF H 7% WH 74% 5.0% 2.0% CB 5% DB 12% CB 1% UfH Rad+UFH 75% -0.8% WH 23% by value DB 39% Rad+UFH 34% CB 4% Excellence in Market Intelligence 4 4
  5. 5. Main changes in traditional Heating markets, 2013 Importance Energy efficiency targets drive condensing boiler sales Increasing penetration of wall-hung boilers Biomass boilers are growing but still a niche market Gas-fuelled boilers are leading the market Move towards central heating Mature market driven by replacement Visible trend towards higher quality boilers in China & Russia Urgency Excellence in Market Intelligence 5 5
  6. 6. World Trend in Domestic Boiler Technology overview Sales of Non-Condensing units Sales of Condensing units 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 Japan China 3,000 NAmerica 2012 total NCd: 5.2mln units 2016 total NCd: 5.4 mln units Europe 2012 total Cd: 4mln units 2016 total Cd: 5.1 mln units 2,000 Growth 1,000 5% 2013 2014 2015 2016 Excellence in Market Intelligence Thousand units Thousand units 2,000 0 2012 3,000 Growth 1,000 28% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6
  7. 7. Traditional & renewable space heating US vs Europe US sales of heat generators, volume Europe sales of heat generators, volume Heat pumps account for 5.2% of sales in 2013 ‘000 units 4,000 ‘000 units 10,000 Renewables account for 4.8% of sales in 2013 9,000 3,500 8,000 3,000 Dry distribution HP 2,500 Hydronic HP 2,000 Non-condensing boilers 7,000 micro CHP 6,000 Heat Pumps 5,000 Non-condensing boilers 3,000 1,500 4,000 Condensing boilers Condensing boilers 1,000 Furnaces 500 2,000 1,000 - 2012 2013 Excellence in Market Intelligence 2012 7 2013 7
  8. 8. Traditional & renewable water heating US vs Europe US sales of water heaters, volume ‘000 units 12,000 Europe sales of water heaters, volume Renewables account for 0.4% of sales in 2013 Renewables account for 5.2% of sales in 2013 ‘000 units 10,000 9,000 SHW HP 10,000 8,000 ST Water Heaters 8,000 Gas instantaneous 6,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Electric instantaneous 4,000 Gas storage 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 Electric storage 2012 - 2013 Excellence in Market Intelligence 1,000 2012 8 2013 8
  9. 9. World Renewable Market Value by region, 2012 Europe* USA Total: US$ 343.0 mln El. Hydronic HP 10% ST systems 13% Gas HP 0% CHP/ Fuel Cells.5% Gas HP) 1.1% Heat recovery 56% Heat recovery 21.1% Japan Total: US$ 4,604 mln Total: US$ 3,207 mln CHP/ Fuel Gas HP Cells 22% 0% El. HP 44.7% Solar Thermal s 27.6% El. Hydronic HP 75% ST systems 2% CHP/ Fuel Cells 21% Heat recovery 1% China Total: US$ 10,116 mln Heat recovery 1% * Europe HP, ST & HRV includes 13 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom,, Czech Republic, Poland. Europe CHP / FC & Gas HP includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Poland CHP/ Fuel Cells 43% El. Hydronic HP 11% ST systems 45% Gas HP 0% Excellence in Market Intelligence 9 9
  10. 10. World Heat recovery 2020 outlook Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020 2012 2020 CAGR 2012-2020 40.0% 35.2% 35.0% 30.0% 23.3% 25.0% 19.5% 20.0% 15.0% 14.4% 14.1% 10.3% 12.3% 12.7% 9.7% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.2% 6.3% 2.2% 0.0% Excellence in Market Intelligence 14.0% 10 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - 10 Thousands units growth
  11. 11. World Heat Pump 2020 Outlook Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020 units growth 2012 60% 2020 CAGR 2012-2020 700,000 51% 600,000 50% 500,000 40% 30% 20% 400,000 22% 19% 17% 10% 10% 18% 15% 7% 4% 300,000 18% 200,000 7% 6% 1% 0% 0% 100,000 - growth 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% units 27% 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - China Excellence in Market Intelligence 11 11
  12. 12. System integration in family homes in Europe Will gain importance with increasing share of RES in electricity production Will gain importance after ErP will take effect in 2015 Excellence in Market Intelligence 12 12
  13. 13. Renewable technologies likely to be installed in European dwellings in the long term  Existing dwellings:  New dwellings: Electric Heat Pump Electric Heat Pump Intelligent controls Intelligent controls Photovoltaic Fuel Cell Excellence in Market Intelligence 13 13
  14. 14. Renewables sales curve in Europe until 2035 Powerful drivers for renewables after 2020 Units* 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 Heat Pumps 1,000,000 Hybrid HP 800,000 ST systems 600,000 micro CHP 400,000 Fuel Cells 200,000 0 2012 2015 *Illustrative European sales level Excellence in Market Intelligence 2020 2030 2035 14
  15. 15. Thank you Contact: Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836 Email: krystyna.dawson@bsria.co.uk Excellence in Market Intelligence 15

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