The Role of FUSION in a Long-Term, Global Energy Technology ...

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The Role of FUSION in a Long-Term, Global Energy Technology ...

  1. 1. The Role of FUSION in a Long-Term, Global Energy Technology Strategy To Address Climate Change John Clarke, Jae Edmonds & Sonny Kim Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  2. 2. THE GLOBAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY PROJECT CURRENT SPONSORS <ul><li>Battelle </li></ul><ul><li>British Petroleum </li></ul><ul><li>EPRI </li></ul><ul><li>European Union </li></ul><ul><li>Mobil Oil </li></ul><ul><li>Japan’s NIES </li></ul><ul><li>Toyota Motor Corporation </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Department of Energy </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  3. 3. A TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY COLLABORATION INTERNATIONAL <ul><li>Beijing Energy Research Institute </li></ul><ul><li>Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnment et le Developpement </li></ul><ul><li>Council on Agricultural Science and Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Council on Foreign Relations </li></ul><ul><li>Indian Institute for Management </li></ul><ul><li>Intern’l Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Japan Science & Technology Corporation </li></ul><ul><li>Korean Energy Economics Institute </li></ul><ul><li>National Autonomous University of Mexico </li></ul><ul><li>National Inst. for Env. Studies, Japan </li></ul><ul><li>Potsdam Institute for Climate Studies </li></ul><ul><li>Stanford Energy Modeling Forum </li></ul><ul><li>TATA Energy Research Institute </li></ul>Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  4. 4. CONCLUSIONS <ul><li>Fusion--and in particular electricity--has a major role to play in a technology strategy to address climate change, but </li></ul><ul><li>Fusion will be part of a technology portfolio, including </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Supporting technologies e.g. batteries & fuel cells, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Complementary technologies e.g. biomass, solar, conservation, nuclear, natural gas, hydrogen, generation, carbon capture & sequestration. </li></ul></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  5. 5. Energy Technologies Filling the Global CO 2 Emissions Gap (An Illustrative Example) 550 ppmv Stabilization Emissions Reference Emissions Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  6. 6. FILLING THE GAP <ul><li>No one technology will solve the climate problem alone. </li></ul><ul><li>A mix of technologies will be needed including--fusion, solar, fission, biomass, conservation, and fossil fuels. </li></ul><ul><li>The contribution of technologies to the solution will depend on their relative economic performance. </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  7. 7. CONCLUSIONS <ul><li>Fusion will benefit from emissions mitigation, but </li></ul><ul><li>Unless it is economically competitive, its role will be limited. </li></ul><ul><li>The value of successful research on fusion energy is great. </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  8. 8. <ul><li>Unconventional Oil & Gas production is limited by coal availability and low-cost of synthetic fuels. </li></ul><ul><li>Coal is the dominant form of primary energy, but is used primarily in a transformed state. </li></ul>REFERENCE CASE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  9. 9. REFERENCE CASE FUSION TECHNOLOGY <ul><li>Cost Year </li></ul><ul><li>>$0.50/kWh 2035 </li></ul><ul><li>$0.15/kWh 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>$0.05/kWh 2095 </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute Cost
  10. 10. FUSION COST SENSITIVITY ( 2095 Cost, 1996 $) <ul><li>Lowest = $0.03/kWh </li></ul><ul><li>Low = $0.04/kWh </li></ul><ul><li>Mid = $0.05/kWh </li></ul><ul><li>High = $0.08/kWh </li></ul><ul><li>Highest = $0.10/kWh </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  11. 11. FUSION MARKET PENETRATION Reference Case, Alternative Fusion Costs Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  12. 12. EMISSIONS MITIGATION CASES Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  13. 13. FUSION POWER & EMISSIONS MITIGATION <ul><li>Fusion benefits from carbon taxes. </li></ul><ul><li>Each $100/tonneC is worth </li></ul><ul><li>$0.011 to $0.018/kWh </li></ul><ul><li>(depending on fossil fuel alternative) </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  14. 14. FUSION CAN HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON THE VALUE OF CARBON 2005 TO 2095 550 ppmv ceiling Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  15. 15. FUSION INTERACTION WITH OTHER TECHNOLOGIES <ul><li>High cost fusion benefits only marginally because it is more expensive than alternative mitigation options. </li></ul><ul><li>Low cost fusion significantly reduces carbon emission mitigation requirements. </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  16. 16. Effect of 550 ppmv Stabilization on Fusion’s Electricity Share of 2095 Power Generation Market Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  17. 17. VALUE OF SUCCESSFUL FUSION R&D WITH EMISSIONS MITIGATION Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  18. 18. VALUE of FUSION TECHNOLOGY Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  19. 19. Value Of Particular Fusion R&D Targets Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  20. 20. Electricity Market: Price Ratios (USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU) Assumes dominant market share Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  21. 21. Hydrogen Market: Price Ratios (USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  22. 22. How Does Hydrogen Production Technology Change With Stabilization Policy? (USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  23. 23. CONCLUSIONS F usion’s role in a technology strategy to address climate change <ul><li>Fusion has a major role to play in Electricity production . . .but </li></ul><ul><li>Fusion power will not be a major contributor to Hydrogen production unless </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Significant advances occur in electrolysis technology and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fusion can demonstrate a competitive advantage (E.g. using heat) </li></ul></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  24. 24. CONCLUSIONS <ul><li>Fusion will benefit from emissions mitigation, but </li></ul><ul><li>Unless it is economically competitive, its role will be limited. E.g. hydrogen generation </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute
  25. 25. CONCLUSIONS <ul><li>Fusion R&D needs to identify and target those unique features that can give fusion a competitive advantage. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Capitalize on fusion’s unique technical characteristics. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Only a foolish elephant tries to be a mouse 1 ” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In this regard, a critical, comparative study of competitive technology characteristics and performance projections is essential. </li></ul>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle Memorial Institute 1) Attributed to Lau Tzu by JFC

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