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  1. 1. Photovoltaic Technology: Status and Trends Presentation to the First NREL Energy Analysis Forum Golden, CO August 13, 2001
  2. 2. BP Solar Locations Manufacturing & Sales Sales Modules & Sales
  3. 3. Solar Electricity Now <ul><li>Economically driven global off-grid market </li></ul><ul><li>Policy driven grid markets in Europe, Asia, and California; residential applications dominate. </li></ul><ul><li>Catalog modules – glass and aluminum </li></ul><ul><li>High reliability, long life well established </li></ul><ul><li>Well known systems art – still relatively few practitioners in many countries and most US states </li></ul><ul><li>Visually differentiated BIPV applications </li></ul><ul><li>First wave of distributed generation revolution </li></ul><ul><li>First tier manufacturers concerned with mega-plants and silicon supply issues </li></ul><ul><li>Sales network evolution driven by emerging grid markets </li></ul><ul><li>Crystalline remains the workhorse of the industry </li></ul>
  4. 4. Solar Electricity 2010 <ul><li>High market entry barriers </li></ul><ul><li>Economically driven global market structured to exploit value of renewables and distributed generation </li></ul><ul><li>Solar is implicit element of building design </li></ul><ul><li>Catalog solar electric building materials </li></ul><ul><li>Element of roofing, glazing and building electrical systems, with visual impact optional </li></ul><ul><li>On-site electricity properly valued and traded in competitive electricity markets </li></ul><ul><li>Front end manufacturing concentrated in small number of companies </li></ul><ul><li>Sales network includes energy solutions companies </li></ul><ul><li>Thin film becoming the workhorse of the industry </li></ul>
  5. 5. The Global Solar Electricity Market Grid Connected Relies on government support Remote Industrial Fully commercial Remote Rural Depends on government policy Consumer Power Fully commercial Source Strategies Unlimited, April 2000
  6. 6. PV Market Growth Expectations
  7. 7. US Market Status and Trends <ul><li>Positive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Public acceptance/demand for solar remains high. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Off-grid markets remain strong. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Resistance to net metering is waning. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing PV industry recognition of need for more complete offers including kitting, system level warranty, performance information,and financing. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Negative </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Share of global market is shrinking. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of retail sales infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of trained and interested installers in many regions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dream of holistic national program strategy is dying </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. US Regional Characteristics & Drivers <ul><li>California is the best near-term opportunity due to rising power costs, reduced power availability, good sun, and aggressive incentives </li></ul><ul><li>US Electricity Marketplace </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Deregulation – Consumer Choice, Green Energy Marketing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing Demand led by Telecom and Computers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electric Rate Inflation over next 10 years (California, Arizona) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compensation for Power at Retail Electric Rates (Net Metering) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Federal Incentives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>10% Federal Tax Credit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5-year Accelerated Depreciation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>42% capital tax benefit over first 5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Aggressive state government, regulatory, and utility incentives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>17 State Renewable Energy Funds – $2 billion from 2001-2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Arizona, California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Source: Jigar Shah, BP Solar </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Cumulative Installed PV in the US
  10. 10. Opportunities <ul><li>Rooftop Solar Electricity: </li></ul><ul><li>Off-sets high cost peak and intermediate power </li></ul><ul><li>Off-sets need for transmission and distribution upgrades. </li></ul><ul><li>Off-sets emissions from existing fuel based power plants </li></ul><ul><li>Provides high “R” value equivalent insulating effect vs. solar heat gain. </li></ul><ul><li>Shields roof from UV exposure, extending roof life (1kW of solar typically requires 125 to 250 square feet of roof space). </li></ul><ul><li>Has zero price risk (cf. price volatility of traditional fuels used to generate electricity). </li></ul><ul><li>Requires minimal maintenance over a 20-30 year design life. </li></ul><ul><li>Modules have high resale value, up to 70% after 5 years and 50% after 10 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Creates in-state jobs vs. balance of trade deficits </li></ul>
  11. 11. Rooftop Solar Economics
  12. 12. Barriers (and Recommended Policy Response) <ul><li>Policies that make it happen: </li></ul><ul><li>Net metering for all system sizes with no standby charges </li></ul><ul><li>Simple, uniform and convenient interconnection standards </li></ul><ul><li>Encourage development of retail sales, installation and service infrastructure via: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rebates, financing and/or value-based power purchase offers to consumers and companies investing in solar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Education, training, and other assistance. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enhance public awareness and education. </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory permission to aggregate rooftop solar electricity for resale to other consumers </li></ul><ul><li>Purchase of solar electricity and/or on-site solar generation for state facilities. </li></ul><ul><li>Exemption from sales and use taxes. </li></ul>
  13. 13. Immediate Issues <ul><li>US market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>California electricity crisis – aberration or preview? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunistic vs. strategic attention by major players </li></ul></ul><ul><li>US Technology Opportunities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Thin film </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Building materials </li></ul></ul><ul><li>US Program </li></ul><ul><ul><li>One dimensional (R&D). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Option 1. Understand and communicate relationship between kWh price and value (to US, state, community, utility and consumer). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Option 2. Incentivize currently cost-effective markets. </li></ul></ul></ul>