Peak Oil Models to help understand peak oil

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  • Peak + Hubbert’s predictions
  • Peak Oil Models to help understand peak oil

    1. 1. Peak Oil Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006
    2. 2. Some Basics Lower 48 +Alaska US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html
    3. 3. Many Countries Have Peaked! http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893 US UK Indonesia Iran? Venezuela
    4. 4. Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)
    5. 5. OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates
    6. 6. Gaussian
    7. 7. Gaussian Fit to US Production
    8. 8. USGS and Cumulative Production
    9. 9. Hubbert’s Logistic Curve 1980 Prediction “ Economic” argument: We will always find more and increase ultimate recovered amount = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ ) dQ dt
    10. 10. Problem with Logistic Curves At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar. There are too many free fitting parameters
    11. 11. The Point Remains …
    12. 12. Hubbert Linearization http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568 Q (Gbbl) P = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ )
    13. 13. HL - Texas http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/
    14. 14. HL – US 48
    15. 15. HL – Saudi Arabia
    16. 16. HL - World
    17. 17. US Geological Survey Estimates Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002) www.ihs.com
    18. 18. Rough Outline of the Future <ul><li>USGS published reserve estimates in 1998 </li></ul><ul><li>EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth </li></ul><ul><li>A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025 </li></ul><ul><li>Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources </li></ul>
    19. 19. Creaming Curves
    20. 20. One Prediction (1998) R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8 , 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
    21. 21. Duncan and Youngquist Predictions 13 countries Predicted to peak after 2005 11 countries Actually peaked between 1998-2005 2 countries Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peaked 16 countries Predicted to peak 1998-2005 0 countries Recovered from peak after 1997 14 countries Peaked prior to 1997
    22. 22. Finding Norways R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
    23. 23. Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert” 2/3 !
    24. 24. Peak Models BP USGS
    25. 25. A Brief History of Oil
    26. 26. Keep Watching… http://www.theoildrum.com
    27. 27. Peak “Good” Oil OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005

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