Peak oil


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Peak oil

  1. 1. Peak of oil production <ul><li>This presentation only reflects the views of Wolfgang Geist. It is an </li></ul><ul><li>ongoing project to create awareness to a problem that according to my </li></ul><ul><li>opinion will affect you and your children in the near future. If you have </li></ul><ul><li>any comments feel free to email: [email_address] </li></ul>
  2. 2. Study resources <ul><li>“ Beyond oil”, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, professor Princeton. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Twilight in the desert”, Matthew R. Simpson </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Geological Survey </li></ul><ul><li>Department Of Energy (DOE) </li></ul><ul><li>Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) </li></ul>
  3. 3. 20th Century: The Hydrocarbon Era <ul><li>42 gallons = 1barrel </li></ul><ul><li>US oil consumption: 21 million barrels/day (imports > 50%) </li></ul><ul><li>Average 3 gallons per US citizen/day </li></ul><ul><li>World oil consumption: 85 million barrels/day (EIA) </li></ul><ul><li>Average 0.5 gallons per world citizen/day (mainly in industrialized world which makes up 10% of world). </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation uses 50% of oil. </li></ul>
  4. 4. But times are changing <ul><li>EROEI (energy return on energy investment) drops significantly. </li></ul><ul><li>Mid-nineteenth century: largest oil fields EROEI = 50:1 </li></ul><ul><li>(50 barrels recovered and 1 barrel used) </li></ul><ul><li>Currently: EROEI= 5:1 to 1:1 </li></ul><ul><li>As EROEI drops to one, oil production is no longer a net energy source. Happens long before the resource is physically exhausted. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Oil prices confirm: something is up <ul><li>Crude oil up: 96$ (Nov.7/2007) </li></ul><ul><li>Prices have spiked before if any producing country goes partially offline (due to war, sanctions etc). </li></ul><ul><li>But this time no specific country is off-line. </li></ul><ul><li>Iraq hasn’t produced much before war (sanctions, “… the price is worth it ”). </li></ul><ul><li>Maybe crude oil is peaking? </li></ul>
  6. 6. World oil reserves Proved reserves are estimated quantities that analysis of geologic and engineering data demonstrates with reasonable certainty are recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions. Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist 1.1trillion 1.3 trillion 1.2 trillion World Oil Year end 2005 Oil and gas journal 1/1/2007 BP statistical review Year End 2005
  7. 7. Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future <ul><li>There is neither consensus about the future nor the past of oil! </li></ul><ul><li>Fossil versus abiotic oil. </li></ul><ul><li>Hubbert’s model versus oil companies. </li></ul><ul><li>United States Geological Survey (USGS) </li></ul><ul><li>versus common sense. </li></ul><ul><li>Bottom up analysis (PhD thesis Robelius) </li></ul>“ Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of nongrowth.” Hubbert
  8. 8. Fossil oil theory <ul><li>Formation 5.3-570 million years ago. </li></ul><ul><li>Trapping of marine nutrients (plants, animals, fecal pellets) if water input exceeds surface evaporation. </li></ul><ul><li>Organic matter needs to be preserved in source rock, otherwise it will be recycled through the food chain. </li></ul><ul><li>Turning organic matter into oil: </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature: T > 60 0 C </li></ul><ul><li>Oil window: With a geothermal gradient of 2.6 ◦ C/100 m, 2km and 7km depth for T> 60 0 C </li></ul>
  9. 9. Fossil oil theory <ul><li>Molecules with 5 to 20 Carbon atoms are crude oil. Molecules with fewer than 5 atoms are gases at room temperature. </li></ul><ul><li>Burying the sediments deeper than 15,000 feet breaks the molecules further until only one Carbon atom per molecule is left: Methane (CH 4 ). </li></ul>
  10. 10. Very unique conditions to store oil <ul><li>90% of oil seeps to the surface. </li></ul><ul><li>The remaining 10% gets trapped underground in domes, fossil reefs, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>There are no big caverns at oil well depths. </li></ul><ul><li>Oil is trapped in rocks with significant porosity (reservoir rocks): Limestone, Dolomite. </li></ul><ul><li>The pore spaces in the rocks have to be connected to one another so the oil or gas can flow through the rock. </li></ul><ul><li>At least one layer between the oil reservoir and the surface has to make a leak-tight seal: If a billion barrel oil field would leak 1 drop per second, it would be depleted in 100million years (most oil fields are older than that). </li></ul>
  11. 11. Abiotic oil theory <ul><li>Natural petroleum was formed from deep carbon deposits, perhaps dating to the formation of the Earth. </li></ul><ul><li>The ubiquity of hydrocarbons in the solar system is taken as evidence that there may be a great deal more petroleum on Earth than commonly thought, and that petroleum may originate from carbon-bearing fluids which migrate upward from the mantle. </li></ul><ul><li>Widely accepted in Russia, where it was intensively developed in the 1950s and 1960s. </li></ul>
  12. 12. Abiotic oil theory <ul><li>Although evidence exists for abiogenic creation of methane and hydrocarbon gases within the Earth, they are not produced in commercially significant quantities, so that essentially all hydrocarbon gases that are extracted for use as fuel or raw materials are biogenic. </li></ul><ul><li>No direct evidence to date of abiogenic petroleum (liquid crude oil and long-chain hydrocarbon compounds) formed abiogenically within the crust, which is the essential prediction of the abiogenic petroleum theory. </li></ul>
  13. 13. Importance of Abiotic oil <ul><li>Important only if decline of oil production can be compensated for by deep drilling in order to tap abiotic oil reservoirs. </li></ul><ul><li>The &quot;weak&quot; abiotic oil theory : oil is abiotically formed, but at rates not higher than those that petroleum geologists assume for oil formation according to the conventional theory. (This version has little or no political consequences). </li></ul><ul><li>The &quot;strong&quot; abiotic theory : oil is formed at a speed sufficient to replace the oil reservoirs as we deplete them, that is, at a rate something like 10,000 times faster than known in petroleum geology. (This one has strong political implications). </li></ul>
  14. 14. Producing oil = Simplified: production P rate depends on reservoir pressure p r More complete model needs to include porosity of reservoir rock and viscosity of fluids. P » v 0 = q 2 ½ ( p r ¡ p 0 + g h ½ ) h ½ ¢ V 2 v 2 0 + ½ g ¢ V h ½ ¢ V 2 v 2 r + ( p r ¡ p 0 ) ¢ V
  15. 15. Hubbert’s model <ul><li>P=a(1-Q/Q tot )Q and P=dQ/dt. </li></ul><ul><li>Logistic equation: Used to describe population growth, economic growth and resource depletion. </li></ul><ul><li>Growth depends on what is left (1-Q/Q tot ) : </li></ul><ul><li>Increasingly harder to find new fields. Aging of already discovered fields: Pressure and production rate drops. </li></ul><ul><li>Growth depends on what is already produced Q : </li></ul><ul><li>The more oil produced, the more oil dependent infrastructure has been established, i.e. the more oil is needed. </li></ul>
  16. 16. Hubbert’s model <ul><li>The function P/Q versus Q is a straight line. </li></ul><ul><li>Peak oil: The peak of oil production can already be determined from Hubbert's equation: </li></ul><ul><li>dP/dQ=a (1-2Q/Q tot )=0 </li></ul><ul><li>) Q=Q tot /2 </li></ul><ul><li>Fitting the known data one gets a=0.5 and Q tot =2.16 trillion barrels. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Here’s the data <ul><li>P/Q=0.5(1-Q / 2.16 trillion) </li></ul>
  18. 18. Production rate versus time <ul><li>P = dQ/dt = a(1-Q/Q tot )Q </li></ul><ul><li>dt = dQ/(a(1-Q/Q tot )Q) </li></ul><ul><li>F = Q 0 /(Q tot -Q 0 ) </li></ul><ul><li>¢ t = t - t 0 </li></ul><ul><li>40% decline in 30 years! </li></ul>) P = a e a ¢ t Q t o t ( 1 + F e a ¢ t ) 2
  19. 19. Production rate data
  20. 20. Facts that support Hubbert’s model <ul><li>1956: Hubbert correctly predicted peaking of North American oil production in the </li></ul><ul><li>early 70’s ) </li></ul><ul><li>Assuming two different </li></ul><ul><li>production cycles (OPEC cut production rate in 1973) yields better fit. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Some troubling facts <ul><li>About half of the yearly consumption comes from some 120 super giant fields, most of which are over 40 years old and the 14 best producing fields account for 20% of world production. </li></ul><ul><li>Since 1998: World crude production almost flat. Data shows production increase only 0.6% per year. </li></ul><ul><li>No country has unused oil production capacity. </li></ul><ul><li>CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 91, NO. 9, 10 NOVEMBER 2006 </li></ul>
  22. 22. Discoveries and Production
  23. 23. Different peaks depending on what counts <ul><li>Only conventional oil: Peak in 2004 (ASPO newsletters). </li></ul><ul><li>All production (no tar sands and LNG): Peak by the end of 2005 (Deffeyes). </li></ul><ul><li>Using all the liquids: Peak in the mid of 2006. </li></ul>
  24. 24. Different peaks depending on what counts <ul><li>Studies that put the peak beyond 2010 do not use this method; usually they consider the declining rates of existing fields and the projected production of developing fields. These studies are often called bottom-up analysis. </li></ul><ul><li>ASPO model for all liquids: Combination of Hubbert's method with a bottom-up analysis, considering a major development in deep-water exploration. Presently the peak year is indicated to be 2010. </li></ul>
  25. 25. Profile depending on: -Characteristics of the reservoir and its fluids, such as pressure and permeability. -Production method. Bottom up analysis (PhD thesis Dr. Robelius) <ul><li>Total past production A. </li></ul><ul><li>Decline production C </li></ul><ul><li>3. URR. </li></ul><ul><li>4. Prolonged plateau production B. </li></ul>A+B+C=URR
  26. 26. Production curves of giant oil fields
  27. 27. Since the decline in the logarithmic graph is a straight line: Log (P(t)) = log P P +t log k P P = production rate at plateau level P(t=0)=P P Since log k<0 0<k<1 Let k=(1-x) P(t)= P p (1-x) t Integrating P(t) over t yields the decline production C= s P(t)dt: C=P p ((1-x) t -1)/ln(1-x). So we find x from C.
  28. 28. Predictions <ul><li>A known from database. </li></ul><ul><li>C known from database: </li></ul><ul><li>C= P P ( (1-x) t -1) / ln(1-x). </li></ul><ul><li>Oil field data reveals three decline rates x: </li></ul><ul><li>16%, 10%, 6%. </li></ul><ul><li>Use decline rates </li></ul><ul><li>to predict B = URR-A-C </li></ul><ul><li>and start of decline in other fields. </li></ul>http:// =7625
  29. 29. Global prediction http:// =7625 Included are: Giant oil fields (smaller fields are fused into a giant) Major new fields Oil sands New technologies Different peaks depend on URR, decline rate estimates and different assumptions about future technologies.
  30. 30. U.S.G.S model <ul><li>USGS assumes 3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil. This graph shows P with the 3 different production growth rates. </li></ul><ul><li>Advances in oil producing technology are assumed </li></ul>
  31. 31. More scenarios
  32. 32. Political wiggles in the production curve <ul><li>1970-1973: Oil companies (Chevron, Texaco, Mobil, Exxon) force steep increase in Saudi oil production before Aramco becomes nationalized. First damage to fields. </li></ul><ul><li>1973 Oil crisis: US arms Israel in Yom-Kippur war, </li></ul><ul><li>which leads to Saudi oil embargo. </li></ul><ul><li>Only little amount of OPEC oil withheld, but nervousness in oil markets made prices rose 4fold. </li></ul>
  33. 33. Political wiggles in the production curve <ul><li>1975: Saudi oil fields rest, in order to retard water invasion and maintain reservoir pressure. </li></ul><ul><li>1978 Blowback : The US installed Shah in Iran is overthrown. Iran stops producing oil, Saudis increase oil production </li></ul><ul><li>1980: Saddam Hussein with support of the US attacks Iran. Oil prices sour from 18$ pb to 40$ pb. </li></ul>
  34. 34. Political wiggles in the production curve <ul><li>Saudi oil production peaks in 1980. Saudis cut back to preserve their oil fields. </li></ul><ul><li>1990 embargo against Iraq. Saudis again increase oil production. </li></ul><ul><li>Consequences of overproduction: Rapid gas cap formation and premature water encroachment. Far more oil is left in the ground. </li></ul>
  35. 35. Oil reserves in % of world <ul><li>Middle East : </li></ul><ul><li>63.3% </li></ul><ul><li>Saudi Arabia: </li></ul><ul><li>22.9 % </li></ul><ul><li>Iran: </li></ul><ul><li>11.3% </li></ul><ul><li>Iraq: </li></ul><ul><li>10% </li></ul>
  36. 36. Middle East Oil production Year 2003 (world total 76.7 mb) Iraq total 1.3 mb Iraq % of world 1.7% Iran total 3.8 mb Iran % of World 5.0% Saudi Total 9.8 mb Saudi % of World 12.8 % Middle East total 22.6 mb per day Middle East % of world 29.4%
  37. 37. Alternatives to light oil <ul><li>Oil in Tar sand, deep sea drilling. </li></ul><ul><li>Coal. </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear energy. </li></ul><ul><li>Wind, water, sun. </li></ul><ul><li>Geothermal energy. </li></ul><ul><li>Ethanol. (EROIE 6:1, in midwest 1.16:1) </li></ul><ul><li>Hydrogen (an energy storage, not resource) </li></ul><ul><li>Conserve, conserve, conserve. </li></ul>
  38. 38. Tar sand <ul><li>C ombination of clay, sand, water, and bitumen. </li></ul><ul><li>About two tons of tar sands are required to produce one barrel of oil. </li></ul><ul><li>Extraction methods require large amounts of both water and energy (for heating and pumping). </li></ul><ul><li>Energy return for energy invested: 4:1 (tar sands of Alberta) </li></ul>
  39. 39. Oil shale (or pipe dream?) <ul><li>The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers has estimated its oil sands will be producing 3.9 million barrels a day by 2015... with some experts predicting recoverable estimates of two trillion barrels, or even higher. </li></ul><ul><li>But remember: US consumption today: 21 mb/d. </li></ul>
  40. 40. Nuclear fission <ul><li>Nuclei: Protons and neutrons. </li></ul><ul><li>Mass of a nucleus is always less than the sum of the individual masses of its protons and neutrons which constitute it. </li></ul><ul><li>The mass difference: The nuclear binding energy which holds the nucleus together (strong force). </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear binding energy = Δmc 2 </li></ul><ul><li>is on the order of a million times greater than the electron binding energies of atoms. </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  41. 41. Nuclear binding energy E B of A=N+Z nucleons <ul><li>Volume energy . When an assembly of nucleons of the same size is packed together into the smallest volume, each interior nucleon has a certain number other nucleons in contact with it: a V A </li></ul><ul><li>Surface energy . A nucleon at the surface of a nucleus interacts with fewer other nucleons that one in the interior of the nucleus and hence its binding energy is less: - a s A 2/3 </li></ul><ul><li>Coulomb Energy . The electric repulsion between each pair of protons in a nucleus contributes toward decreasing its binding energy: </li></ul><ul><li>-a c Z(Z-1)/A 1/3 </li></ul>
  42. 42. Asymmetry energy <ul><li>Asymmetry energy (also called Pauli Energy). An energy associated with the Pauli exclusion principle. Unequal values of N and Z imply filling higher energy levels for one type of particle, while leaving lower energy levels vacant for the other type: </li></ul><ul><li>-a A (A-2Z) 2 /A </li></ul>
  43. 43. Pairing energy <ul><li>Pairing energy . An energy which is a correction term that arises from the tendency of proton pairs and neutron pairs to occur. An even number of particles is more stable than an odd number: </li></ul><ul><li>+ ± 0 if Z,N even (A even) </li></ul><ul><li>0 if A odd </li></ul><ul><li>- ± 0 if Z,N odd (A even) </li></ul>
  44. 44. Nuclear binding energy E B of A=N+Z nucleons All together this yields (Weizsaecker mass equation): E B =a V A -asA 2/3 -a c Z(Z-1)/A 1/3 -aA(A-2Z) 2 /A+ ± 0
  45. 45. Nuclear fission <ul><li>If mass of fragments is equal to or greater than that of iron (peak of binding energy curve), then the nuclear particles will be more tightly bound than they were before the fission. </li></ul><ul><li>Decrease in mass releases energy according to E= Δmc 2 </li></ul><ul><li>For elements lighter than iron, fusion will yield energy. </li></ul>
  46. 46. BUT <ul><li>“ Our current throwaway nuclear cycle uses up the world </li></ul><ul><li>reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years . ” </li></ul><ul><li>Technologies such as fast breeders </li></ul><ul><li>can, in theory, considerably extend the life of uranium reserves. </li></ul><ul><li>Caltech physics professor David Goodstein: </li></ul><ul><li>“ ... you would have to build 10,000 of the largest power plants </li></ul><ul><li>that are feasible by engineering standards in order to replace the </li></ul><ul><li>10 terawatts of fossil fuel we're burning today ... that's a </li></ul><ul><li>staggering amount and if you did that, the known reserves of </li></ul><ul><li>uranium would last for 10 to 20 years at that burn rate. So, it's </li></ul><ul><li>at best a bridging technology ... You can use the rest of the </li></ul><ul><li>uranium to breed plutonium 239 then we'd have at least 100 </li></ul><ul><li>times as much fuel to use. But that means you're making </li></ul><ul><li>plutonium, which is an extremely dangerous thing to do in the </li></ul><ul><li>dangerous world that we live in.” </li></ul>
  47. 47. Fast breeder <ul><li>Produces and burns Plutonium: Nuclear proliferation. </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult technology, can’t use water as coolant. </li></ul>
  48. 48. Coal <ul><li>Dirty, dirty, dirty. </li></ul><ul><li>Mercury. </li></ul><ul><li>Liquifying coal to gasoline. </li></ul><ul><li>Up to 1/3 of world wide CO 2 production. </li></ul><ul><li>Possibility to store C0 2. </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. DOE sees &quot;zero emissions&quot; coal technology as a core element of its future energy. </li></ul>
  49. 49. Geothermal energy <ul><li>For every 100 meters you go below ground, the temperature of the rock increases about 3 degrees Celsius. At about 3,000 meters below ground, the temperature of the rock would be hot enough to boil water. </li></ul><ul><li>Heat pumps transfer energy. </li></ul><ul><li>GENERATING ELECTRICITY: GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANTS </li></ul><ul><li>10% of the electricity in northern Nevada. </li></ul>
  50. 50. Solar energy <ul><li>Energy of estimated amount of all conventional oil is less than the amount of sunlight that intersects the earth in one 24 hour day . ( Of course not all sunlight hits the surface, but still…). </li></ul><ul><li>So far lacks scalabilty and very costly. </li></ul><ul><li>Concentrating solar power: CSP systems use reflective materials that concentrate the sun's heat energy to drive a generator that produces electricity. </li></ul>
  51. 51. Solar energy <ul><li>Photo voltaic: PV systems use semiconductor materials that convert sunlight directly to electricity. </li></ul>
  52. 52. Solar energy <ul><li>Solar heating: Solar collectors absorb the sun's energy to provide low-temperature heat used directly for hot water or space heating for residential or commercial buildings. </li></ul>
  53. 53. Solar energy <ul><li>Solar lighting: Parabolic collectors focus sunlight into a fiber optic system to illuminate building interiors with sunlight. </li></ul>
  54. 54. Wind energy <ul><li>U.S. wind energy installations produce enough electricity on a typical day to power the equivalent of over 2.5 million homes. </li></ul>
  55. 55. What to do <ul><li>Discuss it and make it an issue. In order to </li></ul><ul><li>make a smooth transition, extra energy is needed in order to built new infrastructure. </li></ul><ul><li>The earlier we start, the better. </li></ul><ul><li>Write your representatives. </li></ul><ul><li>Form local energy groups. </li></ul>