Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments


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Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments

  1. 1. Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments Terry Surles - Hawaii Natural Energy Institute Hawaii Association of Environmental Professionals June 25, 2009
  2. 2. Public/Private Partnerships Critical For Addressing Overarching Issues Facing Energy Infrastructures Electricity System Issues Grid Modernization: Renewable and DG Peak Demand Grid Stability Global Climate Change Energy Security: Oil from “grumpy” nations, Critical Infrastructure Protection None Of These Issues Can Be Resolved Without Partnerships Environment Quality Environment Quality: Life cycle analyses
  3. 3. 2001 161 Quads 2025 259 Quads Oil 8% Coal 38% Natural Gas 18% Nuclear 16% Renewables 20% Coal 37% Nuclear 12% Natural Gas 25% Renewables 19% Oil 7% 61% Growth Worldwide electricity consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.3% between 2001 - 2025 Source: IEO2004, Table 16 World Electricity Consumption
  4. 4. Global Oil Consumption Source: BP World Energy Review, 2007 Growth ~ 1%/year
  5. 5. Proven Oil Reserves (2006) BP World Energy Review, 2007
  6. 6. Hawaii Is Heavily Dependent on Petroleum for Energy Use
  7. 7. Hawaii’s Dependence on Foreign Oil Is Headed in the Wrong Direction
  8. 8. Climate Change : It’s Getting Worse <ul><li>“ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.” – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Annual fossil CO 2 emissions increased from an average of 6.4 GtC per year in the 1990s, to 7.2 GtC per year in 2000-2005 </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest in any decade in at least the last 200 years (since the start of the Industrial Era) </li></ul>
  9. 9. Various Modeling Results for Historical Temperatures: The Infamous Inhofe/Barton/Crichton “Hockey Stick”
  10. 10. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years  /decade 100 0.074  0.018 50 0.128  0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1990 ,2000
  11. 11. CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Relatively little variation before the industrial era (Note that water vapor is a GHG) Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change
  12. 12. Greenhouse Gases* *For complete listing see Table TS.2, IPCC Working Group I, Technical Summary, Fourth Assessment Report. ~10,000s ~10,000s ~10,000s ~0.1 to 0.4 1000s e.g. SF 6 Perfluorocarbons 1,000s to 10,000s 1,000s to 10,000s 1,000s to 10,000s ~ 0.2 to 0.3 10s to 100s e.g. CCl 3 F CFCs 1,000s to 10,000s 1,000s to 10,000s 1,000s to 10,000s ~ 0.1 to 0.4 10s to 100s e.g. CHF 3 HFCs 153 298 289 3.03 x 10 -3 114 N 2 O Nitrous Oxide 7.6 25 72 3.7 x 10 -4 12 CH 4 Methane 1 1 1 1.4 x 10 -5 See next slide CO 2 Carbon dioxide 500 year Warming Potential 100 year Warming Potential 20 year Warming Potential Radiative Efficiency (W/m 2 /ppb) Lifetime (Years) Formula Chemical
  13. 13. N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance. Global number and percentage of intense hurricanes is increasing North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs SST (1944-2005) Marked increase after 1994
  14. 14. Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C ( likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C ( likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable
  15. 15. <ul><li>Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise. </li></ul>A Paleoclimatic Perspective
  16. 16. Emissions Projections
  17. 17. Problem Confluence: Global Security and Climate <ul><li>Significant climate change and sea level rise will lead to major population dislocations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Foster additional radical groups against existing nations and economies: southern Asia </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Climate change can produce “winners” as well as “losers” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Northern countries may benefit: Canada, Russia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Temperate countries may suffer due to loss of cropland and increase of tropical diseases and exotic pests </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Winners and losers will also be driven by water - increased storms nd more persistent droughts </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Will most certainly exacerbate international tensions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Particular issues concerning water availability: China, Middle East </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Problem Confluence: Climate Change and Energy Security <ul><li>Availability and upward price pressure on oil prices - disruption of supply in Africa and the Gulf Coast </li></ul><ul><li>Natural Gas - related price pressures as well as increased reliance on foreign imports of LNG </li></ul><ul><li>Coal - could increase in use due to domestic supplies and lower prices - exacerbating climate issues </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear - pressure to increase deployment, with concerns over proliferation risks </li></ul><ul><li>Bio-fuels - increased food/fuel competition, coupled with uncertainties related to future agricultural productivity </li></ul>
  19. 19. Is There a Limit to Where and How We Get Oil in the Future: Per Capita Production
  20. 20. Carbon Management and Energy Security: No Silver Bullet Carbon Management Btu GDP < Decarbonization CO 2 Btu < CO 2 atm CO 2 emitted < Sequestration Efficiency <ul><li>Nuclear </li></ul><ul><li>Renewables </li></ul><ul><li>Regional Partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Capture/storage </li></ul><ul><li>End-use Technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Demand response </li></ul>
  21. 21. Energy Efficiency – The Most Cost Effective Approach Lighting Transportation Appliances
  22. 22. Buildings 39% Industry 33% Transportation 28% Buildings use 71% of electricity 21% 18% Focus Needs to be on Buildings Residential Heating 32% Other 4% Water Heat 13% Computers 1% Cooling 10% Refrigeration 9% Lights 12% Electronics 5% Wash 5% Cooking 5% Source: 2004 Buildings Energy Databook with SEDS distributed to all end-uses Commercial Other 10% Lights 28% Heating 16% % Cooling 13% Water Heat 7% Ventilation 7% Cooking 2% Computers 3% Office Equip 7% Refrigeration 4%
  23. 23. Colored Cool Roof Project <ul><li>Concrete tile </li></ul><ul><li>Composition </li></ul>Available now: In development: <ul><li>Standing seam </li></ul><ul><li>Clay tile </li></ul>
  24. 24. Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators + Freezers in the US 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 at 1974 efficiency at 2001 efficiency GW capacity saved capacity needed
  25. 25. Renewable Electricity Overview Biomass 65% Wind 19% Geothermal 15% Solar 1% U.S. Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2005 Total = 4,055 Billion KWh Electric Utility Plants = 63% Independent Power Producers & Combined Heat and Power Plants = 37.0%
  26. 26. What is Possible for Renewable Electricity Renewable Energy Expected From State Standards Western Governor’s Association 2015 Goal <ul><li>Clean Energy – 30,000 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Solar – 8,000 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Wind – 5,000 to 9,000 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Geothermal – 5,600 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Efficiency – 40,000 MW </li></ul>Total Estimated Solar Capacity Driven by State RPS Set-Asides 2010: 400 MW to 500 MW 2015: 1,200 MW to 1,400 MW 2020: 2,800 MW to 3,200 MW 2030: 3,700 MW to 4,300 MW (assuming full compliance with mandates) HI CA NV IA & WI NJ CT & RI MA ME MN AZ & NM NY TX MD CO & MT PA DC & DE WA
  27. 27. Life Cycle Emissions: Well-to-Wheels Analysis – Biofuel System
  28. 28. Biomass/Biofuels Status <ul><li>Biopower </li></ul><ul><li>Grid-connected capacity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>9700 MW direct combustion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>400 MW co-firing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Biopower electricity prices generally range from 8-12 ¢/kWh </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuels </li></ul><ul><li>Biodiesel – 30 million gallons (2004) </li></ul><ul><li>Corn ethanol </li></ul><ul><ul><li>81 commercial plants </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3.4 billion gallons (2004) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>~$1.22/gal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cellulosic ethanol* </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$2.49/gal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>* Not commercially available </li></ul></ul>Rated at 21 MW and providing the San Francisco Bay Area with baseload capacity, the Tracy Biomass Plant uses wood residues discarded from agricultural and industrial operations. <ul><li>World biomass electricity capacity (2004): 36 GW </li></ul><ul><li>World biofuels production capacity (2004): ethanol 32 billion l/yr; biodiesel 2.2 billion l/yr </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Worldwatch Institute </li></ul>
  29. 29. $/bbl Brazil—the Saudi Arabia of biofuels—is currently the only country that truly has a large, viable industry… Although the US ethanol market is also sizable.
  30. 30. Development of Sustainable, Integrated Bioenergy Systems for Hawaii <ul><li>Develop sustainable crop production systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DOE and Industry initiatives with CTAHR </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Validate conversion technology compatibility with oil and fiber crop fractions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DOE, ClearFuels, and other Industry initiatives </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demonstration and scale-up of integrated systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry lead with University support </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enact policy to encourage development of bioenergy industry: Biofuels Master Plan (ACT 253) - HNEI-led </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Primary objective of the plan is to develop a Hawaii renewable biofuels program to manage the State’s transition to energy self-sufficiency based in part on biofuels for power generation and transportation. </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. Massive Development of Biomass Technology is Not Without Issues <ul><li>Water Use </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Irrigation requires energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water rights will be at issue </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fertilizer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many are produced with natural gas feedstocks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Run-off cases considerable pollution, ocean dead zones </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Competition for Food </li></ul><ul><li>Land Availability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>use of marginal lands can make erosion problems worse </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Contribution to Global Warming </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Destruction of tropical forests </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conversion Technologies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Problems with developing cost-effective cellulosic conversion systems </li></ul></ul>
  32. 32. Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Test Center <ul><li>UH awarded one of two ocean energy test centers announced by USDOE fall 2008 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry driven, requiring 50% cost share </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Also leverages DOD funding </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Objectives: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wave: Facilitate development & implementation of commercial wave energy systems – with one or more of these systems to supply energy to grid at >50% availability within 5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: Conduct long-term testing and help move OTEC to pre-commercialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Testing of OTEC components partially funded by Office of Naval Research via grant to HNEI </li></ul></ul>
  33. 33. Ocean Energy Center Test Sites
  34. 34. As Available Renewable Resources: Wind Energy Capacity Growth Worldwide <ul><li>Jan 2007 Cumulative MW = 71,476 </li></ul><ul><li>Rest of World = 11,043 </li></ul><ul><li>North America = 13,054 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. – 11,603MW </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Canada – 1,451MW </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Europe = 47,379 </li></ul>MW Installed Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2005 Windpower Monthly, January 2007 *NREL Estimate for 2007 Rest of World Actual Projected Rest of World North America North America Europe Europe
  35. 35. Arklow Banks Windfarm The Irish Sea Photo: R. Thresher GE WindEnergy 3.6 MW Turbine Boeing 747-200
  36. 37. As-Available Wind and Solar Energy Systems on the Grid: Problems for Power Quality and Reliability, Necessities in a Digital Society From Imre Gyuk, DOE, 2007
  37. 38. Electricity Storage for High Penetrations of As Available Renewable Resources From Imre Gyuk, DOE, 2007
  38. 39. Aspects of the “Smart Grid” - Linking IT to Electricity: Communications, Control, and Information Systems <ul><li>Take advantage of technologies developed for exogenous applications </li></ul><ul><li>Resolves issues arising from greater penetration of distributed energy resources and technologies on grid </li></ul><ul><li>Critical component for more effective and efficient load management, demand response, demand-side management </li></ul><ul><li>Major concern is the effective linking of electrical and mechanical engineering skills with information technology profession </li></ul>
  39. 40. <ul><li>Objective is to demonstrate a distributed system that aggregates DG, energy storage, and demand response technologies to achieve transmission, distribution and end-use benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Focus is on “reduction of peak demand by at least 15%” using a diverse mix of DG, storage, renewable energy, demand response </li></ul><ul><li>Effort to provide solutions for mitigating the effects of as-available renewable energy </li></ul><ul><li>Team consists of HNEI, General Electric, Hawaiian Electric Co, Maui Electric Co, Sentech, First Wind </li></ul><ul><li>Funded at $14M in FY08 and 09 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Just under $7M from DOE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real “iron in the ground” and utility cooperation and enthusiasm for achieving primary goals for DOE/OE, the utility, and the state </li></ul></ul>HNEI’s “Maui Smart Grid Project” Is Designed to Meet Federal, State, and Utility Needs
  40. 41. Wind Distributed Integrated Systems (Storage, Generation, and Intelligence) will be essential for the Grid of the Future Transmission & Distribution Distribution Substation Commercial Industrial Gensets , FC, LM Gensets , Solar, Fuel Cells (FC), Load Management (LM) Residential Transmission Substation IGCC - FC Hybrid, Biomass, Solar, Nuclear, Direct Carbon FC Bulk Generation Gensets , Solar, FC, LM Transmission & Distribution Distribution Substation Commercial Industrial Gensets , FC, LM Gensets , Solar, Fuel Cells (FC), Load Management (LM) Residential Transmission Substation Bulk Generation Gensets , Solar, FC, LM
  41. 42. Nuclear Should Remain an Option BUT <ul><li>Cost </li></ul><ul><li>Waste disposal </li></ul><ul><li>Health and safety </li></ul><ul><li>Proliferation </li></ul>
  42. 43. Nuclear Power Consumption Source: BP World Energy Review, 2007 Growth ~ 4%/year
  43. 44. U.S. electricity production costs 1995-2005 ( averages in 2005 cents per kilowatt-hour )
  44. 45. World Coal Consumption Growth ~ 2%/yr
  45. 46. Planned New Coal Plant Emissions Equal All Historic Coal CO 2 Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004 27% of remaining budget for 450 ppm
  46. 47. <ul><li>Two major challenges for economically viable, environmentally acceptable CCS </li></ul><ul><li>Lower cost capture – currently up to 35% cost penalty on PVC systems </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing uncertainty of storage permanence, safety, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Need to resolve both to gain acceptance to keep coal as option and hedge bets on Integrated Gasification/Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal-fired power plants </li></ul>Carbon Sequestration: Continued Use of Domestic Resources (new HNEI effort)
  47. 48. Sleipner Project, North Sea <ul><li>1996 to present </li></ul><ul><li>1 Mt CO 2 injection/yr </li></ul><ul><li>Seismic monitoring </li></ul>Picture compliments of Statoil and LBNL
  48. 49. Reduce CO 2 Emissions from Transportation <ul><li>Improve fuel efficiency of cars and trucks </li></ul><ul><li>Switch to plug-in hybrid or electric cars </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Only provides a benefit if emissions from electricity are reduced </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Switch to low-C fuels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. H 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biofuels with low life-cycle emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>On-board capture of emissions from large mobile sources? </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear powered ships and aircraft? </li></ul>
  49. 50. Looking Forward: Integration of Transportation and Electricity <ul><li>Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Integration of transportation and electricity sectors can provide solutions </li></ul>
  50. 51. Integration of the Transportation and Electricity Sector From Michael Kintner-Meyer, PNNL, 2007
  51. 52. Integration of RDD&D Initiatives: Need to Connect Basic, Development, Applied Activities with Public Policies Industrial Scale Projects Technical Needs Fundamental Understanding Technology Fundamental Understanding Basic and Applied Research Pilot and Demonstration Projects
  52. 53. Carbon “Markets” – Need for Hawaii to Develop Source/Sink Baselines <ul><li>Allowance markets – “ Cap and trade ” programs that allocate GHG emissions that can be traded to achieve compliance goals . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>AAU trading between countries under the Kyoto Protocol </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Worked effectively for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in the USA </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Credit markets – “Baseline and credit” schemes in which GHG “ offsets ” or “ credits ” are awarded for GHG abatement projects that reduce emissions against a project baseline and are traded and used for compliance purposes. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) program </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and other voluntary schemes (RECs) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Carbon Tax - can government create level playing field </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Must be “fair” to all economic sectors - utilities, transportation, other sectors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Must be societally “fair” - carbon taxes will tend to be regressive taxes </li></ul></ul>
  53. 54. Energy Challenges for Hawaii – State Legislation <ul><li>How do we reduce dependence on oil and reduce greenhouse gas emissions while </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Keeping electricity and fuel costs competitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Managing environmental impact and public acceptance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maintaining reliability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Meeting this challenge requires coordination from all stakeholders </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Well-conceived public policies – grounded by new technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Validation and implementation of advanced energy systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Program continuity and consistency </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Stakeholders want simple solutions but most are not simple – conundrum of as-available renewable energy – plentiful, but hard on the grid! </li></ul>
  54. 55. Hawaii Faces Unique Challenges in the Face of National Legislation <ul><li>Hawaii’s economy depends on tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Hawaii requires the importation of foodstocks and other supplies </li></ul><ul><li>Significant military presence must be factored </li></ul><ul><li>How does the state deal with national legislation that may significantly and negatively impact the economy - either through cap and trade or carbon taxes? </li></ul>
  55. 56. HNEI: Linking R&D and Public Policy to Commercialization Process Institutional Issues Regulations Incentives Government National Laboratories Universities Suppliers Vendors End Users Industry R&D Basic Research & Development Technology Commercialization Collaborative Technology Development Integration Application
  56. 57. Driving to a Sustainable Future: Hawaii Can be a Leader <ul><li>Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Energy </li></ul><ul><li>Economics </li></ul><ul><li>Equity </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul>