Clean Energy and Climate Change

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  • Title slide Keep the title brief and to one line? The second line (in smaller type style) is for the date of the presentation – depending on your presentation, you may also need to include Location and/or Presenter’s name/s and Job title if needed – as a such a second line may be used for these purposes. Do not include unnecessary information in your presentation title – starting off with clear and simple messages will set the style and focus the audience for what is to follow.
  • The model is shown here schematically – there are things to note: First: The fossil fuel industry can continue to exist, and indeed needs to exist, to supply the world with energy. Even with quite challenging stabilisation targets (500ppm) – it could be larger than today, although emissions would need to be no greater than today - which implies continued decarbonisation of the fossil fuel industry (a shift from coal to gas). Second: The ‘slices’ are all material carbon reduction options that can be used to fill up the total wedge of 7 GTc reductions. As we will see there is no silver bullet – no single option that will solve climate change.
  • Clean Energy and Climate Change

    1. 1. Clean Energy and Climate Change Chris Mottershead
    2. 2. integrated response to key drivers security of energy supply changes to our environment economic growth and social progress
    3. 3. carbon constraint 1990 2050 fossil fuel base carbon emissions 7Gtc/year <ul><li>there are many uncertainties, and science is always provisional </li></ul><ul><li>precautionary action to limit global temperature changes to around 2 o C </li></ul><ul><li>means limiting atmospheric concentrations of CO2 to 500-550ppm </li></ul><ul><li>and therefore aiming for 7Gtc/year of emissions by 2050 </li></ul>
    4. 4. reducing emission intensity 1990 2050 reduction in carbon intensity (environmental incentives) fossil fuel base carbon emissions
    5. 5. technology enabled breakthroughs 1990 2050 reduction in carbon intensity (environmental incentives) technology enabled breakthroughs (economic growth incentives) fossil fuel base carbon emissions
    6. 6. policy regimes 1990 2050 engagement and emission constraints business development and competition reduction in carbon intensity (environmental incentives) technology enabled breakthroughs (economic growth incentives) fossil fuel base carbon emissions lower carbon economy
    7. 7. stabilization wedge Rob Socolow and Steve Pacala Princeton University 2050 2000 14 7 Gt c /year 1950 0 Stabilization Triangle current path
    8. 8. seven 1Gtc/year wedges Stabilization Triangle Flat path 1 “wedge” Flat path 1 wedge 2050 2000 14 7 1950 0 7 wedges are needed to build the stabilisation Wedge 1 wedge avoids 1 billion tonnes of carbon emissions per year by 2050
    9. 9. possible 1Gtc/year wedges <ul><li>internal combustion engine efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>demand side reductions, e.g. reduce use of vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>buildings energy efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>industrial process efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>efficient baseload coal plant </li></ul><ul><li>gas for coal power </li></ul><ul><li>carbon capture & storage for power </li></ul><ul><li>carbon capture & storage for transport, e.g. synfuels from coal </li></ul><ul><li>nuclear </li></ul><ul><li>wind </li></ul><ul><li>pv solar </li></ul><ul><li>biomass for transport and power </li></ul><ul><li>hydrogen from gas </li></ul><ul><li>zero emission hydrogen </li></ul><ul><li>forestation </li></ul><ul><li>tillage </li></ul>
    10. 10. climate change – the BP journey 1997 1998 1999 2000 BP acknowledges need for precautionary action to cut GHG emissions after exiting the Global Climate Coalition. BP predicts $1 bn revenue in its solar business in 2007 BP sets target to cut emissions from operations to 10% below 1990 levels by 2010 BP begins funding the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University, exploring solutions to climate change BP initiates the CO2 Capture Project with other companies and governments, studying methods of capturing and storing carbon dioxide at power plants BP’s solar business moves into profit and announces plans to double production. On track to meet 1997 revenue prediction BP launches carbon dioxide capture and storage project at gas field in Algeria BP announces plans for world’s first commercial hydrogen power station. BP launches Alternative Energy 2001 2003 BP achieves its 2010 target 9 years early, having reduced GHG emissions by energy efficiency projects and cutting flaring of unwanted gas, creating $650M in value Based on work at Princeton, BP sets out range of technology options to stabilize GHG emissions over 50 years, including increases in solar, wind, gas-fired power and carbon capture and storage 2002 2004 BP announces plans to build wind farm at Nerefco, Netherlands 2005
    11. 11. BP’s response – so far <ul><li>alternative energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>new business, investing $8B over 10 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>profitable PV business with $1B revenues by 2007 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>450MW of wind by 2008 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2 hydrogen power stations under construction by 2008 (UK & US) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>CCGT (already have 13 GW - 6GW net, plus fleet of 500 turbines) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>reducing emissions by 24Mtco2/year by 2015 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>sustainable mobility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>around 10% of global biofuels market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>advanced biofuels have considerable potential, possibly 30% of transport fuel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Choice in Australia offsetting 1MtCO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>lubricants can have a big impact, Castrol in India nearly 0.3 MtCO2/year </li></ul></ul><ul><li>increased gas production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>one major gas pipeline offsets 120Mtco2, if it displaces coal </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. policy dimensions <ul><li>need for ‘wedges’ to compete with fossil fuels, </li></ul><ul><li>when carbon externality is included, </li></ul><ul><li>by support of : </li></ul><ul><li>market development </li></ul><ul><ul><li>engagement of business and consumers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>technology development </li></ul><ul><ul><li>R&D and demonstration projects in those areas identified as being potential ‘wedges’ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>business development </li></ul><ul><ul><li>incentives and support to establish new and competitive businesses </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. policy partnership for business growth <ul><li>Emissions Cap and Trade or Taxes schemes to drive efficiency into existing infrastructure, </li></ul><ul><li>Transitional Incentives to encourage the commercial deployment of near to market technologies like renewables and carbon capture and storage, </li></ul><ul><li>Investment Criteria to ensure that all new energy infrastructures are competitive against cost and emission benchmarks, </li></ul><ul><li>Public Awareness to create acceptance of public policy and an increasing customer base for clean and secure energy, </li></ul><ul><li>Regulation where there is clear market failure, for example energy efficiency in buildings, </li></ul><ul><li>Tax and Trade Consistency to remove inconsistencies and barriers, for example to allow the creation of an open global market for biofuels. </li></ul>

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