International Reserves and Production
BERR Energy Markets Outlook Natural Gas Event
16th April 2008




Paul Appleby
BP Gr...
World Gas Reserves

Trillion cubic metres
 200
            North America                     S. & Cent. America
          ...
Distribution of Gas Reserves 2006

      Trillion cubic metres
 50
 45
            Russia

 40                      • Top ...
Distribution of Gas Reserves 2006 (cont’d)

     Trillion cubic metres
 8

 7
               USA
 6
               Nigeria...
A note on Reserves and Resources

   Reserves are “indentified accumulations that can be extracted profitably with
   exis...
Estimate of World Gas Resources




  Source: IEA (2005) Resources to Reserves



BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20...
World Gas Production

Billion cubic metres
 3000
            North America                      S. & Cent. America
       ...
Distribution of Gas Production 2006

     Billion cubic metres
 700
             Russia
 600
                             ...
Distribution of Gas Production 2006

     Billion cubic metres
 120


 100        Norway
              Algeria
           ...
Regional Growth of Gas Production

5 year cumulative changes in natural gas production by region
Billion cubic metres
120
...
Growth of Gas Production

  2001-06 cumulative growth in natural gas production by country
   Billion cubic metres
       ...
Growth of Gas Trade

Bcm
                                                                    Pipeline          LNG
800

70...
Global Gas Supply Issues

   Increasing cost of supply
   − extraction (e.g. drilling deeper, further offshore)
   − trans...
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

  1. 1. International Reserves and Production BERR Energy Markets Outlook Natural Gas Event 16th April 2008 Paul Appleby BP Group Economics
  2. 2. World Gas Reserves Trillion cubic metres 200 North America S. & Cent. America Europe Africa Asia Pacific Former Soviet Union Middle East 100 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  3. 3. Distribution of Gas Reserves 2006 Trillion cubic metres 50 45 Russia 40 • Top 3 = 56% of global reserves • Top 10 = 75% 35 Iran 30 Qatar 25 20 15 10 5 0 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  4. 4. Distribution of Gas Reserves 2006 (cont’d) Trillion cubic metres 8 7 USA 6 Nigeria 5 Algeria 4 Norway 3 2 Netherlands 1 UK 0 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  5. 5. A note on Reserves and Resources Reserves are “indentified accumulations that can be extracted profitably with existing technology under present economic conditions”. (McCabe, p. 2113) − estimates depend on views about existing technology and current economic conditions − most additions to reserves come from existing fields – investing in extensions, enhanced recovery Resources are reserves plus all the accumulations of a fossil fuel that may eventually become available – inherently vague definition − Judgments about which resources are potentially economic are very subjective − the warehouse concept applies to resources as well as reserves “Historically perceptions of the amount of fossil fuel resources have had a profound impact on many political and investment decisions. In retrospect many of these perceptions have been ill founded.” (McCabe, p.2119) McCabe P (1998) Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel? American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin Vol 82 No 11 November BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  6. 6. Estimate of World Gas Resources Source: IEA (2005) Resources to Reserves BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  7. 7. World Gas Production Billion cubic metres 3000 North America S. & Cent. America Europe Africa 2500 Asia Pacific Former Soviet Union Middle East 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  8. 8. Distribution of Gas Production 2006 Billion cubic metres 700 Russia 600 • Top 3 = 46% of global production USA • Top 10 = 66% 500 400 300 Canada 200 100 0 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  9. 9. Distribution of Gas Production 2006 Billion cubic metres 120 100 Norway Algeria UK 80 Netherlands 60 40 20 0 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  10. 10. Regional Growth of Gas Production 5 year cumulative changes in natural gas production by region Billion cubic metres 120 1991- 90 1996 1996- 60 2001 30 0 -30 2001- 2006 -60 -90 N America Europe S&C FSU Africa Middle East Asia Pacific America BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  11. 11. Growth of Gas Production 2001-06 cumulative growth in natural gas production by country Billion cubic metres 0 30 60 Russia Iran Norway China Egypt Qatar Saudi Arabia Trinidad Turkmenistan Nigeria Predominant transport mode: Malaysia Pipeline Kazakhstan LNG Oman BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  12. 12. Growth of Gas Trade Bcm Pipeline LNG 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Excludes intra-CIS trade BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
  13. 13. Global Gas Supply Issues Increasing cost of supply − extraction (e.g. drilling deeper, further offshore) − transportation (more remote sources) − capital cost inflation Developing non-conventional sources − technology challenges Willingness of producers to export Geo-politics of long distance transportation BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

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