Successfully reported this slideshow.

Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement

1,011 views

Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement

  1. 1. Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws which the United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices. INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti-trust/Competition Law Guidelines.
  2. 2. The tanker market What to watch [email_address] Manager Research and Projects Singapore 20 April 2007
  3. 3. Tanker market – What to watch? <ul><li>Fragile demand? </li></ul><ul><li>Product taking market share from crude? </li></ul><ul><li>Chemical market – demand increasing </li></ul><ul><li>Supply growth -phase out 2010 </li></ul>
  4. 4. Average annual tanker freight rates $/day
  5. 5. Tanker market <ul><li>What to watch ahead? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US/China </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand for tankers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increase oil demand – concentrated to few areas </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>New refineries - structural changes in trade? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pipelines </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Oil supply – more from Middle East? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>New technology/politics (biofues) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Supply of tankers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Orderbook </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Phase out 2010 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Productivity </li></ul></ul></ul>
  6. 6. GDP growth % What to watch: No growth in oil demand OECD despite positive growth !
  7. 7. Seaborne oil trade - wet and dry bn tonne miles What to watch: Higher increase in product tanker demand than crude tanker demand !
  8. 8. Increase in world oil demand in ME*, USA, China and ROW** mbd Source: IEA FSU: +0.05 Other Asia: +0.18 L America: +0.09 Africa: +0.06 What to watch: Major part of demand from few areas !
  9. 9. Sources of OECD Asian oil imports Source: IEA mbd To watch: Oil from Sakhalin Russian pipeline Eastwards Malaysian pipeline? !
  10. 10. Chinese oil import by source Source: IEA 3 mbd ! To watch: Oil from Venezuela Russian pipeline Refinery development
  11. 11. <ul><li>mbd </li></ul>Sources of US oil imports - mbd Source: IEA ! To watch: Oil from Canada Domestic production
  12. 12. <ul><li>mbd </li></ul>Sources of European oil imports - mbd Source: IEA ! To watch: N Sea oil production down Flat demand Products instead of crude?
  13. 13. World oil supply - mbd Source: BP/INTERTANKO mbd ! To watch: Middle East North Sea decline Russia Eastwards
  14. 14. FSU petroleum export Source: BP/INTERTANKO mbd ! To watch: New pipelines east/west/Druzhba Sakhalin
  15. 15. Product tanker demand
  16. 16. World product trade <ul><li>m tonnes </li></ul>Source: BP review ! To watch: Oil from Venezuela Russian pipeline
  17. 17. World oil consumption and refinery capacity 1965 - 2011 <ul><li>mbd </li></ul>Source: IEA ! To watch: Tightening refinery capacity until 2009 New export refineries India/ME
  18. 18. World refinery development <ul><li>mbd </li></ul>Source: BP Review/various ! To watch: New export refineries India/ME Where will the markets be
  19. 19. US gasoline imports <ul><li>mbd </li></ul>Source: EIA
  20. 20. European products imports - mbd <ul><li>mbd </li></ul>Source: IEA
  21. 21. Product tanker demand <ul><li>What to watch? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese product shortage? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bio-fuels - US in particular </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>40% of US gasoline includes ethanol = 0.4 mbd – 2.3 mbd of ethanol by 2017? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Refinery expansion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Middle East </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>India </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>China </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… </li></ul></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Chemical tanker demand
  23. 23. Major capacity additions coming on-stream next year Export ex Middle East Gulf/Pakistan/WC India Source: Inge Steensland Shipbrokers
  24. 24. The Middle East Gulf build up of export capacity Source: Inge Steensland Shipbrokers
  25. 25. Middle East/WCI/Pak exports by destination Excluding coastal India movements Source: Inge Steensland Shipbrokers
  26. 26. Main products traded on chemical tankers Average annual growth rate: 5% (assumed in 2006-2011 forecast) Source: Inge Steensland Shipbrokers
  27. 27. Some segments more popular than others… Core and swing chemical fleet by size, age, and orderbook Source: Inge Steensland Shipbrokers
  28. 28. Chemical tanker demand <ul><li>What to watch? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Middle East expansion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conversion to DH (80+ ships) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ethanol </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fleet expansion </li></ul></ul>
  29. 29. Tanker Supply
  30. 30. Tanker contracting $ bn m dwt VLCC 13. 4 $ bn Suezmax: 5.9 ” Aframax: 9.4 ” Panamax: 2.7 ” Handy: 22.9 ” (43%) Source: INTERTANKO/Clarkson Shipyard Monitor
  31. 31. Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase out tankers above 30,000 dwt m dwt 79 m dwt 133 m dwt
  32. 32. Phase out SH tankers above 30,000 dwt m dwt
  33. 33. VLCC max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 number Fleet: 142 m dwt Orderbook: 54 m dwt/177 Single hull: 42 m dwt/154 Order/SH: +12% Average age: 9.4 years To watch: Storage Waiting time SH !
  34. 34. Suezmaxes max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 number Fleet: 52 m dwt/348 Orderbook: 20 m dwt/127 Order/SH: +9% Single hull: 9 m dwt Average age: 9.2 years
  35. 35. Aframaxes max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 number Fleet: 72 m dwt/713 Orderbook: 30 m dwt/270 Orders/SH: +17% Single hull: 14 m dwt Average age: 10.2 years
  36. 36. Panamaxes max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 number Fleet: 21 m dwt/309 Orderbook: 9.6 m dwt/133 Orders/SH: +10% Single hull: 5.3 m dwt Average age: 10.5 years
  37. 37. Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwt max phase out, + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 number
  38. 38. Conversion to DH Total 7. 2 m dwt Conversion to FPSO/FSO/bulk carriers, heavy lift …. (1.9 m dwt in 2006, 1.2 m dwt so far 2007 123 3 5 22 10 59 24 Total 34 2 2 18 1 9 2 1990-98 30 1 3 3 0 12 11 1986-89 54 0 0 1 9 36 8 1980-84 5 0 0 0 0 2 3 1970s Total VLCCs 120-148 90-113 60-72 30-52 10-30 Built
  39. 39. Tanker deliveries, removals, min phase-out m dwt
  40. 40. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out m dwt
  41. 41. Fleet development m dwt
  42. 42. Tanker fleet double-hull development %
  43. 43. Oil import by VLCCs - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys
  44. 44. Tanker supply <ul><li>Record investments 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Deliveries, phase out </li></ul><ul><li>Surplus building up? </li></ul><ul><li>Conversions </li></ul><ul><li>Two tier market – inefficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Increased docking time </li></ul>
  45. 45. Conclusion <ul><li>High economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>Changing environment for tankers? </li></ul><ul><li>Many wildcards </li></ul><ul><li>Things better than expected? </li></ul>

×