America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey - Full Appendix

The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Imagining 2024
1
America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey
Appendix

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Methodology
2
 Penn Schoen Berland, working with Burson Marsteller, conducted 2,001
online interviews with the general population of the U.S. from May 28-31,
2014.
 The overall margin of error is ± 2.19%
 The data presented in this study are reflective of U.S. Census Bureau
demographic statistics in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, income and political
party.

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
APPENDIX
3

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Imagining 2024:
We are moving from an “Age of Possibility” to an “Age of
Impossibility”
4

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
35% of Americans believe that the US will be on the right track in
2024
5
25
39
17
30
48
16
35
46
28
62
47
76
58
37
78
28 22
35
OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS
All Democrat Republican
RightTrackWrongDirection
CURRENTLY 10 YEARS FROM NOW
AMERICA’S PATH
Do you think the United States has been, is, or will be one the right
track or headed in the wrong direction?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
39% think the American economy will be on the right track in
10 years
6
US ECONOMY
Ten years ago, do you think the American economy was on the
right track or headed in the wrong direction?
In ten years, do you think the American economy will be on the
right track or headed in the wrong direction?
44%
37%
56%
39%
51%
33%
All Democrats Republicans
The American economy was / will be on the right track
2004 2004 20042024 2024 2024

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
7
Do you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in ten years?
33%
37%
30%
29%
29%
38%
34%
42%
40%
44%
44%
47%
41%
40%
24%
22%
26%
27%
24%
22%
26%
All
Male
Female
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Yes No Don't know
33% think that America will be the “land of opportunity” in
10 years

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
49% believe that hard work is less likely to pay off in
the future
8
61%
30%
23%
49%
10 YEARS FROM NOW
HARD WORK AND PLAYING BY RULES
Ten years ago, do you think that people who worked hard and played by the rules were more or less likely to get ahead?
In ten years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely to get ahead?
10 YEARS AGO
Less Likely
More Likely
All All
In 2024
All
Age Political Affiliation
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More likely 30 32 33 29 25 36 31 24
Less likely 49 42 48 49 58 42 51 52
Don’t know 21 26 19 23 17 23 18 23

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
9
Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor has grown or shrunk in the United States over the past ten years?
Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor will grow or shrink in the United States over the next ten years?
66% think the gap between the rich and poor will grow over
the next 10 years
Past Ten Years
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Grown 77 78 76 71 74 77 90 81 74 76
Shrunk 10 9 10 10 15 9 4 9 12 10
Don't know 13 12 14 18 11 14 6 10 14 14
In Ten Years
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Grow 66 67 65 59 65 65 79 66 67 65
Shrink 16 17 14 20 20 13 8 17 14 15
Don't know 18 16 21 21 15 22 13 16 19 20
77% 71% 74% 77%
90%
10% 10% 15% 9% 4%
66% 59% 65% 65%
79%
16% 20% 20% 13% 8%
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Grown over the last 10 years Shrunk over the last 10 years Grow over the next 10 years Shrink over the next 10 years

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
10
Do you think the middle class in the United States has grown or shrunk over the past ten years?
Do you think the middle class in the United States will grow or shrink over the next ten years?
57% think the middle class has shrunk over the past 10 years, and
49% think it will shrink by 2024
Ten Years Ago
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Grown 28 28 28 44 33 21 14 28 26 29
Shrunk 57 56 59 32 52 66 81 61 61 51
Don't know 15 16 13 24 15 14 5 11 13 19
In Ten Years
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Grow 31 33 29 43 36 24 22 33 29 32
Shrink 49 47 50 31 46 54 64 48 52 47
Don't know 20 20 20 26 17 21 14 20 19 22
31%
28%
49%
57%
20%
15%
Grown/Grow Shrunk/Shrink Don't know
Ten Years Ago
In Ten Years Showing All

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
22% believe the U.S. will have the best education system in
10 years, followed by Japan and China
11
22% 19% 18%
5% 4% 4% 1% 2%
23%
In ten years, which country do you think will have the best education system overall?
US
Japan
China
Germany
India
United Kingdom
Russia
Other
Don't know
ALL
In ten years, which
country do you think
will have the best
education system
overall?
All
Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
US 22 23 21 19 21 26 19 22 24 18 29 23 21 14 21 21 23
Japan 19 19 20 25 18 17 20 17 20 24 9 21 20 29 22 20 17
China 18 18 19 21 19 17 18 20 18 18 22 20 18 12 20 19 17
Germany 5 7 4 7 6 5 3 4 5 8 4 4 7 5 5 4 6
India 4 6 2 5 3 4 4 3 3 6 3 5 3 6 4 6 3
United Kingdom 4 4 4 2 3 6 3 3 3 5 8 4 2 4 5 4 4
Russia 1 1 2 1 1 0 4 1 2 1 4 0 1 0 0 1 2
Other 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Don't know 23 20 27 18 27 21 27 28 25 16 19 20 26 28 21 24 25

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
44% think the U.S.’s math and science ranking will fall, and
47% think public schools will be worse in 10 years
12
32%
44%
24%
Higher
Lower
Don't know
US students are currently ranked 31st in math and 24th in science when
compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect the US to
rank higher or lower in these areas in ten years?
31%
47%
22%
Better
Worse
Don't know
Ten years from now, do you expect the American public school system
to be better or worse than it is today?
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
US students are
currently ranked 31st in
math and 24th in
science when compared
to 65 other top industrial
countries. Do you
expect the US to rank
higher or lower in these
areas in ten years? *
Higher 32 32 32 32 36 34 24 27 29 45 24 31 34 41 43 34 21
Lower 44 47 41 44 36 42 53 39 51 41 52 45 39 39 36 46 48
Don’t know 24 21 27 23 29 23 23 34 20 14 24 24 27 20 20 20 31
Ten years from now,
do you expect the
American public
school system to be
better or worse than it
is today?*
Better 31 33 29 26 33 38 22 23 30 39 29 27 32 39 39 34 23
Worse 47 48 47 46 45 45 54 46 52 49 49 54 44 44 40 50 51
Don’t know 22 19 24 28 22 17 24 31 18 13 22 20 24 17 21 16 26
ALL N=970
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are most likely to say private school is the best
option for children today and will be in 10 years as well
13
23%
17%
10% 11%
32% 33%
16% 18%19% 21%
In your opinion, what do you think is the best option for
school-aged children in America today?
In ten years, what do you think will be the best option
for school-aged children in America?
Public school Charter school Private school Home schooling Don't know
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
In your opinion, what
do you think is the
best option for
school-aged children
in America today? *
Public school 23 22 24 30 20 25 18 21 25 24 28 19 23 24 29 22 20
Charter school 10 11 9 13 7 8 12 7 12 13 7 11 10 12 8 17 6
Private school 32 34 30 23 41 34 26 22 33 42 36 33 27 34 37 30 29
Home schooling 16 15 18 14 15 17 20 21 17 11 14 19 18 12 9 19 20
Don’t know 19 18 20 20 17 16 24 29 14 10 15 19 22 18 16 13 25
In ten years, what do
you think will be the
best option for
school-aged children
in America? *
Public school 17 14 20 19 15 19 15 15 20 20 17 14 23 12 21 16 15
Charter school 11 13 8 13 8 11 12 10 11 12 9 13 9 12 11 16 6
Private school 33 38 29 28 39 36 28 21 36 41 39 36 26 37 34 34 32
Home schooling 18 16 21 15 15 19 23 23 17 15 16 21 20 15 10 19 23
Don’t know 21 19 22 24 23 16 22 31 17 12 19 17 23 24 24 14 23
ALL N=970
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
43% think that fewer Americans will go to college in 10 years,
but 41% think it will be a good investment
14
37%
43%
20%
More
Fewer
Don't know
Do you think more or fewer people will go to college in ten
years as compared to now
41%
30%
29% A good
investment
A bad
investment
Don't know
At a conservative rate of yearly 3% tuition increases, the annual tuition for a four-year
public university in 2024 would be more than $26,000, and the average tuition of a
four-year private university would be more than $58,000. Do you think getting a college
degree in ten years will be a good investment or a bad investment?
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think more or
fewer people will go
to college in ten years
as compared to
now?*
More 37 41 34 34 37 43 30 26 37 47 39 34 37 38 48 40 27
Fewer 43 43 44 48 37 40 50 48 46 40 39 49 43 42 34 44 50
Don’t know
20 16 23 18 25 17 20 27 17 13 22 16 20 21 18 16 23
Do you think getting a
college degree in ten
years will be a good
investment or a bad
investment? *
A good investment 41 48 34 40 38 42 43 35 45 48 40 41 40 46 40 43 41
A bad investment 30 29 30 32 34 27 27 33 29 27 33 35 26 26 31 28 31
Don’t know
29 23 35 28 27 30 30 33 26 25 27 25 35 28 29 30 28
ALL N=970
GROUP B N=1031
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Most parents think a college degree will be more important for their
children to have, but half do not think they will be able to afford it
15
56%
26%
7%
11% More important
No more or
less important
Less important
Don't know
IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, do you think it will be more important, less
important or no more or less important for your children to have a
college degree in ten years than it was for you? (N=354)
29%
50%
20%
Yes
No
Don't know
IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, by the time they go to college, do you think
you will be able to afford your children’s college education? (N=354)
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
IF HAVE KIDS UNDER
18, Do you think it will be
more important, less
important or no more or
less important for your
children to have a college
degree in ten years than it
was for you?*
More important 56 51 60 65 53 53 58 42 62 63 50 61 50 100 65 56 49
No more or less
important 26 32 22 23 23 24 31 35 18 26 29 21 33 0 17 27 32
Less important 7 7 7 8 12 5 5 9 7 5 7 6 9 0 10 4 7
Don’t know
11 10 11 5 13 18 6 14 12 5 14 11 8 0 7 13 12
IF HAVE KIDS UNDER
18, by the time they go to
college, do you think you
will be able to afford your
children’s college
education?*
Yes 29 49 18 37 16 29 36 21 20 51 40 27 25 0 30 29 29
No 50 34 60 48 63 54 39 68 52 32 35 57 55 6 48 56 48
Don’t know
20 17 22 15 21 17 26 10 28 17 25 16 20 94 23 15 23
ALL
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
64% think that it will be difficult for their children to find jobs
in 10 years
16
IF HAVE CHILDREN UNDER 18 LIVING AT HOME, in ten years, will
it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs?
9% 16% 38% 26% 10%
Very easy Somewhat easy Somewhat difficult Very difficult Don't know
In 2024
ALL, N=675
IF HAVE
CHILDREN UNDER
18 LIVING AT
HOME, in ten years,
will it be easy or
difficult for your
children to find good
jobs? *
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Very easy 9 15 6 11 7 7 13 6 6 17 12 9 8 0 11 8 9
Somewhat easy 16 20 14 10 14 16 23 14 18 18 23 14 12 25 19 16 15
Somewhat difficult 38 34 41 36 39 43 34 36 38 42 33 41 37 71 37 45 34
Very difficult 26 21 29 30 29 25 21 31 29 17 22 28 27 0 26 23 28
Don’t know 10 10 11 13 12 9 9 13 9 7 10 8 15 4 7 8 15
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
60% of parents think their kids will be better off in 10 years
than they were at the same age
17
60%
21%
18%
Parents N=354
Yes
No
Don't know
IF PARENTS: In ten years, do you think your children will be better off
than you were at their age?
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 60 72 54 72 61 51 6 59 56 65
No 21 18 23 12 21 26 94 24 23 18
Don't know 18 10 23 15 18 22 0 17 21 18

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
About half say they were better off financially 10 years ago
and will be better off 10 years from now
18
52% 48%
31% 26%
16%
26%
Ten years ago, were you better off or worse off financially
than you are today?
In ten years, do you expect to be better off or worse off
financially than you are today?
Better off Worse off Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, were you
better off or worse off
financially than you are
today?*
Better off 52 50 54 40 55 52 62 48 60 49
Worse off 31 31 32 37 28 33 26 36 28 30
Don't know 16 19 14 23 17 15 12 16 12 21
In ten years, do you
expect to be better off
or worse off financially
than you are today?*
Better off 48 52 44 60 54 46 31 49 45 50
Worse off 26 23 28 18 20 27 42 25 29 23
Don't know 26 25 27 22 26 28 28 26 26 26

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
48% do not expect to retire in 10 years, and 45% don’t
expect to be on a path to retirement
19
ALL N=1031
42%
48%
9%
Yes
No
Don't know
In ten years, do you think you will be retired?
38%
45%
17%
Yes
No
Don't know
IF NOT RETIRED, in ten years, do you think you will be on a path to
affording retirement?
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
think you will be
retired? *
Yes 42 44 40 46 45 44 35 44 43 38 7 21 54 93 45 47 36
No 48 48 49 44 48 45 56 43 51 52 87 70 30 4 42 47 55
Don’t know 9 8 11 10 7 11 9 13 6 10 6 9 16 2 13 6 9
IF NOT RETIRED, in
ten years, do you
think you will be on a
path to affording
retirement? *
Yes 38 45 31 41 32 30 52 29 36 59 34 38 35 48 37 40 38
No 45 38 51 40 56 46 36 50 51 27 52 47 47 31 43 48 44
Don’t know
17 16 18 18 12 23 12 21 14 14 14 15 18 21 20 13 18
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
46% think they will be able to afford regular vacations 10
years from now
20
59%
44% 46%33%
48%
33%
8% 8% 21%
Ten years ago, were you able to afford to
go on regular vacations?
Are you able to afford to go on regular
vacations currently?
In ten years, do you think you will be able
to afford to go on regular vacations?
Yes No Don't know ALL
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
able to afford to go on
regular vacations?*
Yes 59 66 53 33 59 62 84 55 70 54
No 33 26 40 52 34 30 15 37 27 35
Don't know 8 9 7 14 8 8 1 8 4 11
Are you able to afford to
go on regular vacations
currently?*
Yes 44 51 37 40 46 42 48 42 48 42
No 48 38 58 46 44 52 49 50 49 46
Don't know 8 11 5 14 10 5 3 8 3 13
think you will be able to
afford to go on regular
vacations?
Yes 46 50 41 49 54 40 39 49 49 40
No 33 29 36 35 26 32 44 30 32 36
Don't know 21 20 23 16 20 28 17 21 19 23

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Imagining 2024:
America as “The Indispensable Nation” will become “A More
Dispensable Nation”
21

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
30% think the U.S.’s global standing will be on the rise in 10
years
22
All
Political Affiliation
D R I
On the rise 30 38 27 27
In decline 43 36 49 45
Don’t know 26 27 24 28
AMERICA’S GLOBAL STANDING
Do you think America’s global standing will be on the rise or in decline in ten years? (Showing All)
30% 43% 26%
On the rise In decline Don't know
In 2024
• 38% of Democrats are optimistic about America’s global standing in 2024 while 49% of Republics are not

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
68% name China as a superpower in 2024, while 44% name
the U.S.
23
All
Income Gender Age Political Affiliation
<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
China 68 66 65 79 72 65 60 68 68 81 74 70 63
United States 44 44 40 48 47 40 41 42 45 49 50 43 38
Russia 43 43 41 48 48 39 34 37 46 59 39 51 41
Japan 21 21 20 21 21 21 23 24 21 14 24 16 23
United Kingdom/England 13 11 15 14 14 13 18 14 12 10 15 11 14
Germany 9 11 7 10 10 8 12 7 7 11 9 8 9
India 9 7 7 13 11 7 7 8 7 16 11 5 10
SUPERPOWERS IN 2024
Which countries do you think will be considered “superpowers” in
ten years? Please name as many countries as you think apply.
68% 44% 43% 21% 13%

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans predict close alliances with European countries,
Canada and Japan in 2024
24
Which countries do you think will be the United States’ closest
allies in ten years? Please name as many as you think apply.
All
<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
United Kingdom / England 50 42 49 63 55 45 36 43 51 78 54 54 44
Canada 27 20 24 39 33 22 20 27 27 37 26 31 26
France 16 16 16 17 15 17 15 15 14 24 22 14 13
Japan 13 12 13 16 17 10 13 14 13 15 14 12 14
Germany 12 9 11 20 13 12 7 8 11 28 17 11 9
China 10 12 9 7 13 7 19 12 6 4 10 7 14
Israel 9 8 9 12 12 7 6 5 10 18 8 15 6
50% 27% 16% 13% 12%

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
43% name Russia as a U.S. adversary in 10 years
25
Which countries do you think will be the United States’ main
adversaries in ten years. Please name as many as you think apply.
All
<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Russia 43 37 40 55 47 38 27 37 47 64 41 51 37
China 35 33 35 40 40 30 33 32 33 45 33 38 34
Iran 20 18 18 28 26 15 12 19 22 28 20 23 17
North Korea 15 18 12 17 21 10 14 13 17 17 16 16 14
Iraq 11 10 12 13 10 13 11 10 14 7 11 12 11
Afghanistan 7 7 7 6 5 8 4 7 8 7 7 8 5
43% 35% 20% 15% 11%

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Most say China will be a main economic competitor in 10
years
26
AMEICA’S ECONOMIC COMPETITORS
Which country do you think will be the United States’ main economic
competitors in ten years? Please name as many as you think apply.
7
19
34
74
12
21
27
79
18
26
31
85
11
22
30
78
India
Russia
Japan
China
All High Income Mid Income Low Income

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Most say China will be the world’s biggest economic force in
10 years
27
All
<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
China 53 49 51 63 59 47 50 52 50 64 53 58 49
United States 20 22 18 18 20 20 20 18 21 19 22 17 20
Which country do you think will be the world’s biggest economic
force in ten years?
Which country do you think will be the United States’ main
economic competitors in ten years? Please name as many as you
think apply.
All
<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
China 78 74 79 85 82 74 71 76 77 92 80 80 75
Japan 30 34 27 31 31 30 29 28 33 32 34 27 30
Russia 22 19 21 26 25 20 28 21 20 21 17 26 24
India 11 7 12 18 14 9 7 9 11 20 12 12 11

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
54% think Russia will have expanded geographically and
58% think it will have increased global influence by 2024
28
Yes
54%
No
24%
Don't know
22%
All
In ten years, do you think Russia will have expanded
geographically?
More
58%
Less
18%
Don't know
24%
All
In ten years, do you think Russia will have more or less
influence in world affairs?
71% of 65+ vs. 46% of 18-29
year olds think Russia will
have expanded by 2024

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
12% are optimistic for lasting peace in the Middle East by
2024
29
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 12 11 13 16 14 10 8 13 13 11
No 68 76 61 58 66 72 78 68 74 64
Don’t know 20 13 25 25 21 18 14 19 13 25
Do you think that there will be a lasting peace between Israel and
its neighbors in the Middle East in ten years?
Yes
12%
No
68%
Don't
know
20%
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
38% think the U.S.-Israel alliance will be stronger in 10 years
30
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Stronger 38 39 37 32 38 36 49 42 42 31
Weaker 29 33 26 31 28 31 26 27 30 31
Don’t know 33 28 37 38 34 33 24 31 28 38
Do you think the alliance between the United States and Israel will
be stronger or weaker in ten years?
38% 29% 33%In 2024
Stronger Weaker Don't know
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
45% think the U.S. will have engaged in armed conflict with
Iran by 2024
31
Showing “Yes”
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Iran 45 48 43 44 52 46 36 40 51 45
Russia 31 28 34 44 40 29 7 29 30 34
China 19 19 20 25 24 18 6 20 17 21
ARMED CONFLICT WITH THE US
In the next ten years, do you think the United States will have engaged in
armed conflict with any of the following countries? (Showing Yes)
45% 31% 19%
Iran Russia ChinaALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
57% think there will be another major terrorist attack in the
U.S. within 10 years
32
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 57 58 56 45 59 58 67 52 64 56
No 18 21 14 29 19 14 9 17 17 20
Don’t know 25 20 30 27 22 28 24 32 19 25
Do you think there will be another major terrorist attack on
American soil in the next ten years?
Yes
57%
No
18%
Don't
know
25%
ALL
Yes
45%
No
29%
Don't
know
27%
18-29 YEAR OLDS

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
55% think there will be less peace in the world 10 years from
now
33
22% 55% 23%
More peace Less peace Don't know
In 2024
WORLD PEACE
In ten years, do you think there will be more or less peace around
the world than there is today?
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More peace 22 23 21 28 27 17 15 27 14 23
Less peace 55 57 54 53 54 56 61 48 67 53
Don’t know 23 20 25 19 19 27 24 25 18 24
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Imagining 2024:
The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in deep doubt
34

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
33% say Americans will be more unified in 10 years
35
More
unified
49%Less
unified
32%
Don't
know
19%
UNITY IN 2004
Do you think Americans were more or less unified as a
people ten years ago than we are today?
(Showing All)
More
unified
33%
Less
unified
41%
Don't
know
26%
UNITY IN 2024
Do you think Americans will be more or less unified as a
people in ten years than we are today?
(Showing All)

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
54% think the government will be bigger in 10 years
36
Ten Years Ago
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Bigger 24 30 18 25 29 23 17 27 23 23
Smaller 51 53 49 47 45 51 65 42 61 50
Don’t know 25 17 33 29 26 26 18 31 16 27
54%
24%
18%
51%
29%
25%
Bigger Smaller Don't know
Ten Years Ago
In Ten Years
Do you think the size of government was bigger or smaller ten years ago than it is today?
Do you think the size of government will be bigger or smaller in ten years than it is today?
In Ten Years
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Bigger 54 55 52 53 58 49 57 50 59 52
Smaller 18 22 14 20 17 20 13 19 17 18
Don’t know 29 23 34 28 25 31 30 31 25 30
Showing All

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
32% think the government will be more effective in 10 years
37
Do you think the American government was more or less effective ten years ago than it is now?
Do you think the American government will be more or less effective in ten years than it is now?
Do you think the American
government will be more or
less effective in ten years
than it is now?
All
Race Political Affiliation
White
African-
American
Hispanic D R I
More effective 32 29 42 44 40 30 28
Less effective 35 37 23 37 26 38 40
Don't know 33 35 35 19 34 32 32
45% 32%
36%
35%
19%
33%
In 2004 In 2024
Don't know
Less effective
More effective

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are most likely to say the country has made progress on
alternative energy, gone backward on debt over the past 10 years
38
40%
39%
33%
30%
29%
27%
25%
23%
20%
18%
15%
14%
14%
13%
12%
12%
10%
18%
23%
46%
29%
25%
28%
29%
44%
42%
35%
39%
43%
51%
40%
60%
56%
49%
Alternative energy sources
Homeland security and terrorism
Healthcare
Defense and national security
Energy independence
The environment
Transportation and infrastructure
Economic growth and job creation
Education
Foreign policy
Size of government
Government regulation
Traditional family values
Income inequality
The federal budget and national debt
Rising costs of college education
Taxes
Made progress
Gone backward
When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States has made progress, gone backward or has
there been no change in the past ten years?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans most likely to expect progress on energy, going
backward on debt over the next 10 years, too
39
41%
37%
36%
34%
32%
31%
30%
30%
26%
23%
21%
20%
18%
18%
17%
16%
15%
17%
18%
20%
21%
29%
19%
26%
21%
25%
25%
37%
27%
28%
35%
25%
35%
34%
Alternative energy sources
Energy independence
Homeland security and terrorism
Defense and national security
Healthcare
Transportation and infrastructure
Economic growth and job creation
The environment
Education
Foreign policy
The federal budget and national debt
Income inequality
Government regulation
Traditional family values
Size of government
Rising costs of college education
Taxes
Made progress
Gone backward
When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone
backward, or will there have been no change in the next ten years?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Democrats much more optimistic for progress on key issues
in 10 years than Republicans
40
Showing “Made Progress,”
ranked by All
All
Income Age Political Affiliation
<35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Alternative energy sources 41 39 40 47 35 40 41 49 49 37 36
Energy independence 37 36 33 46 30 40 37 42 45 34 33
Homeland security and terrorism 36 36 32 40 34 38 34 39 43 33 32
Defense and national security 34 35 30 36 34 36 29 40 42 31 30
Healthcare 32 33 29 34 33 34 30 31 46 22 27
Transportation and infrastructure 31 28 33 31 27 35 28 36 41 24 27
Economic growth and job creation 30 28 30 32 32 28 28 36 38 30 23
The environment 30 30 28 35 28 32 31 28 40 24 27
Education 26 26 23 26 30 29 22 25 33 22 23
Foreign policy 23 20 22 27 23 23 21 25 31 19 19
The federal budget and national
debt
21 19 17 26 22 22 18 22 29 18 15
Income inequality 20 18 18 26 20 25 18 20 30 19 13
Government regulation 18 15 16 23 19 22 15 17 23 17 14
Traditional family values 18 19 17 19 19 24 17 11 24 16 15
Size of government 17 15 16 23 15 23 16 12 22 15 14
Rising costs of college education 16 19 13 16 17 24 13 11 19 14 16
Taxes 15 16 12 17 14 22 13 9 19 13 13

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Older American are particularly likely to foresee the U.S.
going backward on the cost of college education in 10 years
41
Showing “Gone Backward,”
ranked by All
All
<35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
debt
37 36 39 35 33 36 38 41 23 43 43
Taxes 34 34 37 33 29 33 37 37 24 45 35
Healthcare 29 29 30 29 21 30 31 32 14 40 32
Foreign policy 25 23 27 26 25 23 25 31 15 32 29
Education 25 23 26 28 19 26 28 28 18 29 29
The environment 21 24 18 21 21 20 20 24 16 22 23

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans think there will be more urgency in 2024 to solve
issues related to economic growth, job creation, and debt
42
64% 63%
60% 59%
57% 57% 57%
55% 55% 54% 53%
51%
49%
47%
45% 44%
39%
62%
67%
59%
65%
60%
64%
59%
65%
55% 56% 57%
54%
52%
55%
43% 44%
32%
62% 63%
66%
56%
61%
53% 53%
45%
60%
55% 55%
51%
49%
39%
48% 48% 48%
ALL
Democrats
Republicans
Ten years from now, do you expect there to be more urgency or less urgency for the United States to address each of these issues than there is
today?
Showing “More
urgency”

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Younger Americans less concerned with debt/budget issues,
more concerned with education, than older Americans
43
Ranked by All
All
<35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
debt
35 37 33 39 27 32 40 43 30 39 37
Healthcare 34 32 32 35 34 32 38 27 31 36 35
Taxes 18 19 22 16 19 20 17 17 19 24 14
The environment 15 15 13 14 18 15 14 11 20 9 15
Education 13 11 17 12 23 13 10 7 16 9 14
Foreign policy 10 8 11 12 14 10 9 9 11 9 11
What do you think will be the top three most important issues facing the United States in ten years? Please select up to three.

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Republicans and Democrats want progress on healthcare
and economic growth in the next 10 years
44
Ranked by All
All
<35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Healthcare 32 36 30 29 28 33 36 28 34 31 32
debt
25 25 26 27 19 22 26 38 23 32 23
Taxes 20 19 24 21 22 22 19 19 17 25 19
Education 17 14 22 16 26 18 15 10 21 12 18
The environment 15 17 12 15 18 14 13 13 19 9 15
Foreign policy 6 2 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 4 8
On which issues would you most like to see progress made in the next ten years? Please select up to three.

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
18% think Obamacare will exist with only minor changes in
10 years
45
What do you think the Affordable Care Act, also known as
Obamacare, will be like in ten years?
18%
35%
32%
15%
ALL It will exist
with only
minor
changes
It will exist but
with major
changes
It will no
longer exist
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
It will exist with only
minor changes
18 18 17 17 18 19 16 19 17 18 18 16 16 22 29 7 16
It will exist but with major
changes
35 43 27 30 34 36 39 30 37 38 27 34 36 46 34 35 36
It will no longer exist 32 25 38 34 30 33 32 35 30 32 38 32 33 24 23 46 29
Don’t know 15 13 17 20 18 12 14 16 15 12 17 18 16 9 13 13 19
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
35% think their healthcare will be better in 10 years
46
Do you think that the healthcare you will receive in ten years will
be better or worse than the healthcare you receive now?
35% 37% 28%
Better Worse Don't know
In 2024
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Better 35 35 34 33 37 39 27 27 36 42 27 39 33 41 45 36 26
Worse 37 43 32 36 35 37 41 35 41 40 37 37 41 30 23 49 40
Don’t know 28 22 34 31 27 25 33 38 23 18 36 24 26 29 33 14 35
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are more likely to foresee a national health care
program than a private health care system in 10 years
47
In ten years, do you think the United States will have a national
health care program supplied to everyone by the government
instead of a private health care system?
38%
27%
36%
ALL
National
healthcare
Private
healthcare
Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
Among Group B
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
National healthcare 38 41 35 35 40 38 36 37 41 36 40 40 37 33 41 29 42
Private healthcare 27 29 25 36 23 24 29 25 25 35 20 27 26 37 25 38 20
Don’t know 36 31 40 29 37 38 35 38 34 30 40 33 38 31 34 33 39
ALL N=1031

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
77% believe they will have less privacy from the government
in 10 years, and 58% see that as a bad thing
48
PRIVACY FROM US GOVERNMENT
In ten years, do you expect to have more or less privacy from the U.S. government than you do today? (Showing All)
10% 77% 13%
More privacy Less privacy Don't know
In 2024
20% 58% 22%
Good thing Bad thing Don't know
In 2024
PRIVACY ON SOCIETY
Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All)
All
Age Political Affiliation
18-29 65+ D R I
Privacy from the U.S.
government in 2024
More privacy 10 14 4 9 15 8
Less privacy 77 73 83 76 75 78
Don't know 13 13 13 15 9 14
Will that be a good thing
or a bad thing?
Good thing 20 23 21 29 20 13
Bad thing 58 59 55 49 62 63
Don't know 22 18 24 23 17 24

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
49
51 49 57 56
33
74 71 73 77 75
35 37 31 29
48
13 14 17 9 15
10 YEARS FROM NOW
Currently, do you think there are cameras watching you most of the time?
In ten years, do you think there will be cameras watching you most of the time?
CURRENTLY
No
Yes
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
74% think there will be cameras watching them most of the
time in 2024
29% 45% 26%
In 2024

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
50
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Safer 42 47 36 35 47 42 40 44 39 42
Less safe 31 29 32 37 30 27 31 27 37 28
Don’t know 28 24 32 27 23 32 29 29 24 30
Do you think that the government’s surveillance of electronic communications and cellphone
records will make the country safer or less safe ten years from now than it is today?
42% 31% 28%
Safer Less safe Don't know
In 2024
42% say the government’s electronic surveillance will make
the country safer in 10 years
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
51
Do you think there will be more or less gun violence in
America in ten years than there is now?
58% think there will be more gun violence in the next ten years, as well
as more gun law in the next ten years
58%18%
23%
ALL
More gun violence
Less gun violence
Don't know
Do you think there will be more or fewer gun control
laws in the United States in ten years?
58%20%
22%
ALL
More gun laws
Fewer gun laws
Don't know
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think there will be
more or less gun violence in
America in ten years than
there is now?
More gun violence 58 57 60 51 58 62 60 63 53 58
Less gun violence 18 22 15 27 20 14 12 15 25 16
Don't know 23 21 25 22 22 24 27 22 22 26
Do you think there will be
more or fewer gun control
laws in the United States in
ten years?
More gun laws 58 59 56 58 63 53 58 57 61 56
Fewer gun laws 20 22 18 21 17 21 22 23 20 18
Don't know 22 19 26 21 20 26 20 20 19 26

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
52
63%
50% 45%
37% 34%
17%
Background checks for all
gun sales
Assault weapons ban Ban on sales of high-
capacity/extended
ammunition magazines
Armed guards in schools Increased investment in
mental health programs
Don't know
Which of the following gun control measures do you think will be the law in ten
years? Choose as many as you think will be the law. (Showing All)
63% think background checks for all gun sales will be
the law by 2024
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Background checks for all gun sales 63 63 63 56 64 63 71 61 67 62
Assault weapons ban 50 50 50 40 50 48 65 52 50 48
Ban on sales of high-capacity/extended ammunition magazines 45 45 46 34 43 48 58 45 47 44
Armed guards in schools 37 37 37 30 40 39 39 36 36 38
Increased investment in mental health programs 34 34 34 36 36 32 32 36 31 35
Don't know 17 15 18 23 14 19 10 17 13 20

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
62% believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024 than
it is today
53
62%
34%
16%
48%
22%
18%
More prevalent Less prevalent Don't know
Ten Years Ago
In Ten Years
PREVALENCE OF POVERTY
Do you think poverty was more prevalent or less prevalent in the U.S. ten years ago than it is today? (Showing All)
Do you think poverty will be more prevalent or less prevalent in the U.S. in ten years than it is today? (Showing All)
66% of those aged 30-44
years believe that poverty will
be more prevalent in 2024,
compared to just 52% of
Millennials
Poverty Prevalence in 2024
All
Age
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
More prevalent 62 52 66 61 71
Less prevalent 16 22 17 14 10
Don’t know 22 26 18 25 19
 Older audiences more so than Millennials believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024 with 71% of
those over 65 years old and 66% of those aged 30-44 years agreeing

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
54
34%
29%
24% 23%
18%
2%
31%
37%
27% 27%
16%
1%
39%
26%
22% 22%
14%
2%
32%
25% 23%
19%
24%
2%
Nothing major is
likely to happen in
reaction to income
inequality
Tax reform to
redistribute wealth
Large scale street
demonstrations
Restrictions on
executive pay
Don't know Other
All Democrat Republican Independent
Which of the following do you think will happen in the next ten years in reaction to income inequality in the United
States? You can select multiple responses if necessary.
34% think nothing major will happen in the next 10 years in
reaction to income inequality

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
55
Do you think race relations in America were better or
worse ten years ago than they are now? (Showing All)
40% think race relations in America have gotten better in the
past 10 years, and 46% think they will be better in 2024
40%
36%
25% Better
Worse
Don't know
Do you think race relations in America will be better or
worse in ten years than they are now? (Showing All)
46%
28%
26% Better
Worse
Don't know
All
Gender Race Political Affiliation
M F White Black Hispanic Other D R I
Do you think race relations in
America were better or worse
ten years ago than they are
now?
Better 40 42 38 39 43 42 37 35 44 40
Worse 36 37 34 36 35 41 29 40 36 32
Don't know 25 21 28 26 23 17 34 25 20 28
Do you think race relations in
America will be better or
worse in ten years than they
are now?
Better 46 48 44 45 42 57 38 51 47 40
Worse 28 30 26 28 32 25 28 21 31 31
Don't know 26 22 30 27 26 18 34 28 21 29

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
30% think Congress will be more effective in 2024 than in
2014
56
More
effective
44%
Less
effective
33%
Don't know
23%
ALL
Do you think the US Congress was more or less effective
ten years ago than it is today?
More
effective
30%
Less
effective
38%
Don't know
32%
ALL
Do you think the US Congress will be more or less
effective ten years from now than it is today?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
59% say they are more likely to vote in 2024 than today
57
Ten years ago, were you more or less likely to vote than you are today?
All
Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More likely 49 53 45 37 49 54 56 46 58 45
Less likely 32 29 34 38 36 26 28 34 26 34
Don’t know 19 18 20 24 15 20 16 20 16 21
In ten years, do you think you will be more or less likely to vote than you are today?
All
Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More likely 59 58 61 49 60 61 69 67 71 44
Less likely 20 20 19 25 21 17 16 16 14 28
Don’t know 21 22 20 26 19 23 15 18 15 28
59%
49%
60% 61%
69%
More Likely to Vote in 2024 than 2014
ALL 18-29 y/o 30-44 y/o 45-64 y/o 65+ y/o

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
43% say their vote will matter more in 2024
58
Ten years ago, do you think your vote mattered more or matter less than it does today?
All
Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More 43 46 41 32 43 46 53 41 52 39
Less 27 28 27 32 30 27 19 30 26 26
Don’t know 29 26 32 36 28 27 28 29 21 36
In ten years, do you think your vote will matter more or matter less than it does today?
All
Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More 39 38 40 31 41 40 43 49 39 30
Less 33 35 31 32 32 34 35 23 38 39
Don’t know 28 27 29 36 27 26 22 28 24 31

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
67% predict that money will be more of a dominant force in
politics in ten years than today
59
Do you think money was more or less of a dominant force in American politics ten years ago than it is today?
All
Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More of a force 41 43 39 43 44 40 34 44 41 38
Less of a force 40 39 41 32 38 40 54 36 43 41
Don’t know 19 18 20 25 18 20 12 20 16 21
Do you think money will be more or less of a dominant force in American politics in ten years than it is today?
All
Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More of a force 67 67 66 60 66 69 73 67 68 65
Less of a force 13 14 12 16 17 12 7 13 12 14
Don’t know 20 19 21 24 17 20 20 19 20 21
More of a
force
67%Less of a
force
13%
Don't know
20%
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
60
58%
68% 63%
45%
19% 14% 18% 24%23% 17% 19%
31%
Yes No Don't know
A majority say the two party system will still dominate in 10 years, and
31% think the Republican Party will attract more minorities
Do you think the two political party system (Republicans and Democrats) will still be dominant in ten years?
31%
22%
41%
30%34%
54%
23% 27%
35%
24%
36%
43%
More African Americans and Latino voters Fewer African Americans and Latino voters Don't know
Do you think the Republican Party in ten years will attract more or fewer African America and Latino voters than it does now?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
61
25%
16%
38%
22%
42%
57%
34% 35%33%
27% 29%
43%
More Less Don't know
42% think the Tea Party will be less of a political force in 10
years
Do you think the Tea Party will be more or less of a force in American politics in ten years?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Imagining 2024:
A new social issue consensus is emerging
62

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
63
73%
15%
12%
Yes
No
Don't know
Showing All
Legalizing Same
Sex Marriage
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 73 67 78 66 73 74 79 78 68 73
No 15 20 11 21 16 13 10 13 20 13
Don’t know 12 13 11 13 10 13 11 9 12 14
In ten years, do you think same sex marriage will be legal
in the majority of U.S. states?
Most believe same-sex marriage and marijuana will
be legal in most states by 2024
In ten years, do you think marijuana will be legal in the
majority of U.S. states?
66%
21%
13%
Yes
No
Don't know
Showing All
Legalizing
Marijuana
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 66 62 69 57 67 68 70 70 57 69
No 21 24 18 26 24 17 18 19 28 17
Don’t know 13 14 13 16 9 15 12 10 15 15

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
64
FAMILY VALUES SINCE 2004
Do you think the definition of family values has changed in the
United States over the past ten years? (Showing All)
FAMILY VALUES CHANGING
Do you think the definition of family values will change in the
United States over the next ten years? (Showing All)
62% believe the definition of family values will change
a little in the next 10 years
57%
23%
11% 9%
All
Yes - a great deal
Yes - but only a little
No - it hasn't changed
Don't know
11%
62%
7%
20%
All
No - it won't
change
Yes - but only a
little
No- it hasn't
changed
Don't know
Family Values
Changing Since 2004
All
Gender
Male Female
Yes – a great deal 57 53 62
Yes – but only a little 23 26 21
No – it hasn’t changed 11 13 9
Don't know 9 9 9
Family Values
Changing in 2024
All
Gender
Male Female
No – it won't change 11 10 12
Yes – but only a little 62 64 60
No – it hasn’t changed 7 7 7
Don't know 20 18 22
 Females think the definition of family values has changed over the past ten years more than males do

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
54% expect climate change to affect them more in 10
years
65
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS
In 10 years, do you think the effects of climate change will affect you more or less than they do today?
54% 20% 26%
Will affect me more Will affect me less Don't know
ALL
75% 72% 63% 60% 50% 46% 43% 3%
Extreme
temperatures
More severe
storms
Severe droughts Melting polar ice
caps
Food shortages Extinction of
species, such as
polar bears
Coastal
communities
under water
Don't know
ALL
MOST OBVIOUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS
Which of the effects of climate change will be more obvious in 10 years?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
66
Most believe there will be more droughts, forest fires,
superstorms and tsunamis in 10 years
66% 66% 65%
52%
13% 14% 13% 15%
21% 21% 22%
33%
Droughts Forest fires Superstorms, like Sandy Tsunamis
More Less Don’t know
In ten years, do you think there will be more or less of the following? (Showing All)

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
67
54%
39%
48%
60%
68%
27%
41%
33%
19% 17%19% 20% 19% 21% 15%
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Yes No Don't know
Do you think Americans will be having fewer children ten years from now than they are having today?
Most think that Americans will be having fewer children in
2024 and that they will be raised worse than they are now
21%
29% 23% 18% 15%
54% 47%
56% 53%
61%
25% 24% 20%
29% 24%
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Do you think children in the United States will be raised better or worse in ten years than they are now?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
 According to Americans, a gay president is the least likely to be elected by 2024
68
US LEADER BY 2024
Ten years from now, do you think the United States will have elected the following? (Showing % saying ‘Yes’)
14% 13% 15% 16%
10%
16%
67% 67% 68%
78%
58%
66%
31% 33% 30% 32% 30% 32%30% 29% 32%
37%
28% 27%
All Male Female Democrat Republican Independent
A gay president A female president A Hispanic president An African American president
Most think the U.S. will elect a female president in the next
10 years
US Leaders by 2024 All
Age Race
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White
African-
American
Hispanic
A female president 67 64 68 67 73 68 64 70
A Hispanic president 31 34 33 27 34 28 23 59
An African-American president
)other than President Obama)
30 39 38 23 22 26 43 42
A gay president 14 20 19 8 11 13 15 20

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
69
44% think Spanish will be more widely spoken than English
in the U.S. in 10 years
60%
16%
3% 2% 2%
18%
54%
19%
3% 2% 3%
19%
65%
14%
3% 1% 1%
17%
Spanish Chinese Japanese French German Don't know
All Male Female
Which of the following non-English languages do you think it will be most useful to know in ten years?
In ten years, do you think Spanish will be more widely spoken than English in the United States?
44% 38% 18%
Yes No Don't know
In 2024

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
70
27%
9%
42% 36%
16%
38%
15% 17%
Which generation do you think has the most influence over
the country today?
Ten years from now, which generation do you expect to have
more influence over the country?
Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials Don't know
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Which generation do
you think has the most
influence over the
country today?
Baby Boomers 27 27 27 18 23 32 36 29 26 26
Generation X 42 41 44 35 48 41 45 44 47 38
Millennials 16 17 15 34 16 10 6 14 14 19
Don't know 15 15 15 13 14 17 13 13 13 17
Ten years from now,
which generation do
you expect to have
more influence over the
country?
Baby Boomers 9 8 10 6 6 11 13 12 11 5
Generation X 36 37 34 23 36 39 45 34 39 35
Millennials 38 39 37 54 41 30 29 39 36 39
Don't know 17 16 19 17 17 19 13 16 14 21
Americans are most likely to say Millennials and Generation
X will have the most influence in 10 years
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
68% expect college classes to be taught mostly online and
51% view this as a good thing
71
68%
12%
19% More than
half
Less than
half
Don't know
Ten years from now, how many college or university classes do you expect to
be taught online vs. via teachers present in the same physical classroom?
51%
27%
23%
Better
Worse
Don't know
IF EXPECT ONLINE COURSES, do you think online classes will
make education better or worse than it is today?
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years from now,
how many college or
university classes do
you expect to be taught
online vs. via teachers
present in the same
physical classroom?*
More than half 68 64 72 69 73 69 62 68 71 67 64 69 64 80 71 70 65
Less than half 12 13 12 18 9 10 15 12 10 17 17 11 13 9 12 13 13
Don’t know
19 22 16 13 18 21 23 20 20 16 18 20 23 12 17 17 23
IF EXPECT ONLINE
COURSES, do you
think online classes will
make education better
or worse than it is
today?*
Better 51 57 45 52 51 45 58 56 49 47 57 56 43 49 45 46 60
Worse 27 24 29 24 24 34 22 26 28 29 24 22 32 27 30 29 21
Don’t know
23 19 26 25 25 22 20 18 24 25 20 22 24 24 25 25 19
ALL N=1031
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Imagining 2024:
The United States of Technology is in our future
72

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
63% say technology has made their lives better and 60%
think it will continue to do so in the next 10 years
73
63% 60%
16% 16%21% 24%
Since 2004, have personal technology advancements made your life
better or worse?
In ten years, do you think that advancements in technology such as
phones, computers, TVs, and music players will make your life
better or worse than it is today?
Better Worse Don't Know
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Since 2004, have
personal technology
advancements made
your life better or
worse?
Better 63 66 60 60 59 65 65 58 66 68 62 67 63 55 64 62 62
Worse 16 16 16 16 14 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 15 23 14 19 15
Don’t know 21 18 24 24 28 18 18 26 18 16 23 19 22 22 22 19 23
think that
advancements in
technology will
make your life better
or worse than it is
today?
Better 60 63 56 57 57 61 61 57 63 64 61 62 58 58 62 64 54
Worse 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 16 15 17 17 13 16 22 15 16 18
Don’t know 24 21 27 26 27 21 23 27 22 19 23 24 26 20 23 20 28
Ten years ago in 2004, Americans were using newly released iPods and iPod Minis to listen to music. Basic
mobile phones without touchscreen or data capabilities were used primarily, and laptops were just beginning to
gain popularity over desktops.
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Technology entrepreneurs are seen as most likely to be
leaders in 10 years
74
44% 37% 34%
23% 20% 16% 22%
In ten years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our society?
Please choose any that apply.
Technology entrepreneurs
Political figures
Business leaders
Celebrities
Philanthropic leaders
Athletes
None of the above
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
In ten years, which
groups of people will
be considered leaders
in our society? Please
choose any that apply.
(Multiple responses
permitted)
Technology entrepreneurs 44 43 45 33 45 46 53 47 43 43
Political figures 37 36 38 38 34 37 39 38 39 34
Business leaders 34 36 32 25 36 32 45 35 37 30
Celebrities 23 22 25 30 30 15 20 22 25 23
Philanthropic leaders 20 19 21 17 18 19 29 28 19 14
Athletes 16 19 14 17 20 13 17 18 17 14
None of the above 22 21 23 23 23 24 16 19 20 26
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
41% think social media has made their lives better in the last 10 years,
and 36% think it will make their lives better in the next 10 years
75
41% 36%
24% 26%
35% 38%
In 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term
"social media" had not been coined. Has social media made
your life better or worse in the past ten years?
Do you think that social media will make your life better or
worse in the next decade?
ALL
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
In 2004, Facebook had just been
created, and the term "social media"
had not been coined. Has social
media made your life better or worse
in the past ten years?
Better 41 36 45 36 49 40 35 43 45 35
Worse 24 30 19 31 21 22 26 21 24 28
Don't know 35 34 36 33 30 38 39 36 31 37
Do you think that social media will
make your life better or worse in the
next decade?
Better 36 36 36 39 42 33 31 40 38 32
Worse 26 29 23 30 25 24 26 22 28 27
Don't know 38 35 41 31 33 44 43 38 34 41

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
44% believe technology communication will increase in the
next decade, while face-to-face will decrease
76
63%
41%
29%
44%
9% 15%
Which method of communication do you prefer today? Ten years from now, do you think you will opt to
communicate face-to-face or via technology when
given the choice?
Face-to-face Via technoogy Don't Know
ALL
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Which method of
communication do
you prefer today?
Face-to-face 63 62 63 63 69 61 60 63 64 63 48 58 70 75 65 62 61
Via technology 29 30 28 30 24 30 30 26 30 31 38 35 22 22 27 32 28
Don’t know 9 8 9 8 7 9 10 10 6 5 14 8 8 4 8 6 11
Ten years from now,
do you think will opt
to communicate
face-to-face or via
technology when
given the choice?
Face-to-face 41 40 42 39 44 41 39 39 42 40 41 39 40 45 43 38 41
Via technology 44 47 41 41 41 45 46 43 43 50 41 48 42 43 41 49 41
Don’t know 15 13 17 19 15 14 14 17 15 10 18 12 18 11 15 13 18

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are most likely to think they will use smartphones,
laptops, and tablets in 10 years
77
75% 73%
66% 60%
52%
35% 29% 26%
16% 17%
22% 32%
36%
50%
54% 55%
10% 10% 12% 8% 13% 15% 16% 19%
Smartphone Laptop
computer
Tablet Desktop
computer
Electronic
reading
device
Smart
watch
Google
glass
Driverless
car
Yes No Don't know
Do you think you will use the following technological devices in ten
years?
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Millennials are most likely to envision themselves using
various devices in 10 years
78
Do you think you will use the following technological devices in ten years?
Ranked by All, saying Yes
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Smartphone
Yes 75 77 72 77 71 72 79 67 81 83 78 83 75 55 75 74 75
No 16 14 18 15 18 16 14 21 12 12 11 11 15 32 16 17 15
Don’t know 10 9 10 8 11 12 7 12 8 5 11 6 10 13 9 9 10
Laptop computer
Yes 73 71 74 77 66 74 73 72 71 78 79 75 72 63 71 76 72
No 17 19 15 15 22 15 16 16 20 14 14 17 15 24 17 16 17
Don’t know 10 10 11 8 11 10 11 13 9 8 7 8 13 13 12 7 11
Tablet
Yes 66 66 66 66 64 67 67 57 71 77 67 73 65 56 69 65 64
No 22 21 22 26 23 20 20 29 20 14 21 19 20 30 18 24 23
Don’t know 12 12 12 8 14 13 13 15 9 9 12 7 15 15 13 10 13
Desktop computer
Yes 60 63 57 58 60 58 65 59 61 58 60 60 58 64 62 63 56
No 32 28 35 36 32 33 26 31 31 36 31 34 32 28 29 29 35
Don’t know 8 8 9 6 8 10 9 10 8 7 9 7 10 8 9 8 9
Electronic reading
device
Yes 52 50 54 59 49 50 52 47 57 55 54 55 53 42 54 53 49
No 36 38 33 25 40 37 37 39 32 36 35 35 32 45 34 35 37
Don’t know 13 12 13 16 11 13 11 15 11 9 12 10 15 13 12 11 14
Smart watch
Yes 35 41 29 36 24 38 38 28 37 39 44 37 34 20 34 33 36
No 50 47 53 44 62 46 50 55 49 50 46 48 47 64 50 53 47
Don’t know 15 12 18 20 14 16 12 17 14 11 10 15 19 16 16 13 16
Google glass
Yes 29 36 23 26 24 32 32 25 29 36 39 35 27 11 32 22 32
No 54 49 59 58 63 49 52 59 56 51 46 51 53 73 54 62 49
Don’t know 16 15 18 16 13 19 16 16 16 13 15 13 20 16 14 16 18
Driverless car
Yes 26 29 23 25 22 27 28 22 30 28 30 32 24 15 26 23 27
No 55 53 58 55 61 53 54 60 53 54 47 55 55 67 52 60 55
Don’t know 19 19 19 20 17 20 18 18 16 18 23 13 21 18 22 17 18

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are most likely to think technology will make
communication and work productivity better in 10 years
79
62% 61% 49% 35% 35%
18% 23% 24% 32% 26%20% 16% 27% 33% 39%
How productive you are
at work
The way you
communicate with your
friends and family
The way you interact
with colleagues at work
The way you meet
romantic partners
The way you feel about
yourself
Ten years from now, do you think technology will be making each
of the following better or worse?
Ranked by All
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
How productive you
are at work
Better 62 66 59 65 59 66 57 56 62 73 56 64 64 64 64 68 56
Worse 18 17 19 18 20 18 16 19 18 16 23 18 16 16 14 18 21
The way you
communicate with
your friends and
family
Better 61 64 57 62 65 57 62 61 60 65 58 63 60 62 61 67 55
Worse 23 19 27 23 21 27 19 19 28 24 24 22 23 25 23 22 24
The way you
interact with
colleagues at work
Better 49 57 43 48 49 52 47 49 46 56 51 57 47 40 51 50 48
Worse 24 19 28 22 22 26 23 18 29 25 28 22 23 23 23 26 23
The way you meet
romantic partners
Better 35 39 32 35 31 38 36 33 38 37 38 41 34 26 35 36 35
Worse 32 29 34 36 28 34 29 30 33 32 39 30 27 35 32 32 31
The way you feel
about yourself
Better 35 42 29 33 30 39 37 31 36 41 37 41 30 36 38 37 32
Worse 26 24 27 25 29 25 24 27 25 26 34 25 23 21 25 26 26
ALL
*Not showing “Don’t know”

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Most foresee robots, drones and “smart” medicine being
widely used in 10 years
80
Do you think the following technology will be widely used in ten years?
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Robots
Yes
59 63 55 55 59 60 59 53 63 61 54 56 60 68 58 59 60
No
23 24 23 24 25 20 26 23 22 28 31 28 19 15 25 23 22
Don’t know
18 13 23 21 16 20 15 24 16 11 15 16 21 17 18 18 18
Drones
Yes
70 78 62 67 70 71 69 62 71 77 68 63 74 73 69 75 65
No
14 12 16 15 16 12 14 15 14 13 17 19 9 11 15 11 16
Don’t know
16 10 22 19 14 16 18 23 15 10 15 18 16 16 16 14 19
Medicine capable
of monitoring and
reporting changes
in the body
Yes
60 64 56 61 59 57 65 54 64 64 57 59 61 64 64 60 56
No
20 21 20 20 22 22 16 22 17 20 27 23 17 15 19 18 23
Don’t know
20 16 24 19 19 21 19 24 18 15 16 19 23 21 17 22 21

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
55% believe they will control all of the electronics and
appliances in their houses through one device in 10 years
81
38%
55%
36%
23%26% 22%
Do you think the technological device you will use most
often ten years from now has been invented yet?
Do you think you will be controlling all of the electronics
and appliances in your house with one device in ten
years?
Yes No Don't Know
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think the
technological device
you will use most
often ten years from
now has been
invented yet?
Yes 38 41 35 32 37 42 37 35 40 39 42 43 37 26 35 41 37
No 36 36 37 41 38 34 36 33 39 41 30 37 33 51 39 37 34
Don’t know
26 23 28 27 25 24 27 32 21 20 28 20 30 23 26 22 28
Do you think you will
be controlling all of
the electronics and
appliances in your
house with one
device in ten years?
Yes 55 58 53 55 53 56 57 51 58 61 59 58 53 51 59 55 53
No 23 23 22 15 27 24 22 21 23 25 23 21 22 27 20 24 24
Don’t know
22 19 25 31 20 20 21 28 19 14 18 21 25 22 22 21 23
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
73% expect companies to collect more information in 10
years, and 56% think that will be bad thing
 The older Americans are, the more likely they are to believe companies will collect more information in the
future
82
INFORMATION COLLECTION BY PRIVATE COMPANY
In ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less
information about you than they do today? (Showing All)
73% 12% 15%
More information Less information Don't know
In 2024
18% 56% 26%
In 2024
INFORMATION COLLECTION ON SOCIETY
All
Age
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
In ten years, do you expect
private companies to collect
more or less information about
you than they do today?
More information 73 54 75 79 83
Less information 12 20 11 10 7
Don't know 15 26 14 11 10
Overall, will that be a good thing
for our society or a bad thing?
Good thing 18 14 26 15 16
Bad thing 56 54 54 61 53
Don't know 26 32 20 24 31

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
80% say they have not had their identity stolen online, and
22% think it will happen in the next 10 years
83
12% 22%
80%
41%
8%
37%
Have you had your personal information stolen online? Ten years from now do you think you will have had your
personal information stolen online?
Yes No Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Have you had your
personal information
stolen online?*
Yes 12 12 12 14 17 11 4 14 11 12
No 80 80 80 77 75 80 91 77 82 81
Don't know 8 9 7 8 8 9 5 9 8 7
Ten years from now do
you think you will have
had your personal
information stolen
online?*
Yes 22 22 22 23 25 22 14 24 18 24
No 41 45 37 50 41 33 43 40 44 38
Don't know 37 34 41 27 34 44 43 37 38 38

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
51% think wars in 2024 will be mostly fought with remotely-
controlled machines like drones
84
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 27 30 25 29 28 25 27 26 29 26
No 51 53 50 50 54 50 53 54 50 51
Don’t know 22 17 26 21 18 26 20 20 20 23
In ten years, do you expect wars to be fought mostly with soldiers
or with remotely-controlled machines (such as drones and
robots)?
27% 51% 22%In 2024
Soldiers Machines Don't knowALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
85
ALL
N=1031
33%
58%
47%
23%21% 19%
Ten years from now, do you think your job could be
replaced by machines?
Do you think you will need additional education to be
steadily employed in ten years?
Yes No Don't Know
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years from now,
do you think your job
could be replaced by
machines? *
Yes 33 32 33 38 33 29 32 40 27 30 40 37 29 25 35 30 33
No 47 50 44 37 52 49 46 37 55 54 42 49 46 50 40 52 49
Don’t know 21 18 23 24 15 22 22 24 19 17 18 14 25 25 26 18 18
need additional
education to be
steadily employed in
ten years? *
Yes 58 60 57 67 61 54 55 60 61 57 60 53 54 73 58 58 59
No 23 24 22 13 21 25 29 19 22 29 20 27 23 20 20 25 23
Don’t know 19 16 22 21 18 21 16 20 17 14 21 20 23 8 22 17 18
*Reduced base sizes
33% think they jobs could be replaced by machines in 10
years, and 58% think they will need additional education

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
86
Imagining 2024:
The way we will live

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
52% who currently attend religious services expect to attend
more frequently in the future
87
*Reduced base sizes
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you currently attend
religious services frequently,
at least sometimes or never?*
Frequently 19 19 20 18 19 21 17 19 31 11
At least sometimes 34 33 35 31 35 33 40 34 38 32
Never 38 40 37 37 38 39 40 41 26 45
Don't know 8 8 8 14 8 7 3 7 5 11
IF ATTENDED: In ten years, do
you expect to attend religious
services more frequently or
less frequently than you do
now?*
More frequently 52 52 51 53 51 59 37 51 50 55
Less frequently 22 30 16 26 27 18 20 16 28 21
Don't know 26 18 33 21 22 23 43 33 22 23
19%
34%
38%
8%
ALL N=970
Frequently
At least
sometimes
Never
Don't know
Do you currently attend religious services frequently, at least
sometimes or never?
52%
22%
26%
If Attended N=517
More
frequently
Less frequently
Don't know
(If frequently or sometimes attended services) In ten years, do you expect
to attend religious services more frequently or less frequently than you do
now?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
88
22%
56%
22%
More common
Less common
Don't know
Showing All
Do you think marriage in the United States will be more or
less common ten years from now than it is today?
Do you think divorce in the United States will be more or
less common ten years from now than it is today?
63%
15%
22%
More common
Less common
Don't know
Showing All
56% think marriage will be less common in 2024, and
63% think divorce will be more common
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think marriage in the
United States will be more or
less common ten years from
now than it is today?
More common 22 24 20 28 28 17 15 25 23 19
Less common 56 55 56 47 50 59 67 51 61 54
Don't know 22 21 24 25 22 24 18 23 16 27
Do you think divorce in the
United States will be more or
less common ten years from
now than it is today?
More common 63 63 64 66 63 61 64 63 63 64
Less common 15 16 15 14 16 15 16 15 18 13
Don't know 22 22 21 20 21 24 20 22 19 24

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
86% of married Americans believe they will still be married in
10 years
89
86%
4%
10%
Married N=586
Yes
No
Don't know
IF MARRIED: In ten years, do you think you will still be married?
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 86 89 84 87 84 87 88 87 88 83
No 4 3 5 7 4 4 4 6 3 4
Don't know 10 8 11 7 13 9 8 7 9 13

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
40% believe transportation infrastructure will be in better
shape in 10 years
90
Do you think the transportation infrastructure in the US (roads,
bridges, railways, etc.) will be in better or worse shape ten years
from now than it is today?
40%
37%
22%
ALL
Better shape Worse shape Don't know
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Better shape 40 41 39 47 44 34 37 44 40 37
Worse shape 37 40 35 27 35 43 44 34 39 38
Don’t know 22 18 26 26 21 23 19 21 20 25

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
75% think they will own a car in 10 years
91
77% 75% 72%
23%
14% 15%11% 14%
Do you currently own a car? In ten years, do you think you will own a
car?
(If parent) In ten years, do you think all of
your children of driving age will choose to
own and drive a car?
Yes No Don't Know
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you currently own a
car?
Yes 77 75 79 57 80 84 83 76 86 71
No 23 25 21 43 20 16 17 24 14 29
think you will own a
car?
Yes 75 74 77 76 77 80 63 77 79 71
No 14 15 13 16 13 10 20 14 9 18
Don’t know 11 11 11 8 10 10 18 9 12 11
(If parent) In ten years,
do you think all of your
children of driving age
will choose to own and
drive a car? *
Yes 72 70 73 63 76 72 93 82 71 64
No 15 18 13 20 14 11 0 10 17 18
Don’t know 14 12 15 17 10 17 7 9 13 18
*Reduced base sizes
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
45% think they will drive less frequently in 10 years
92
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More frequently 27 28 25 47 36 18 4 28 26 26
Less frequently 45 46 45 25 33 52 79 48 48 41
Don’t know 28 25 30 28 31 31 17 24 26 32
27%
45%
28%
ALL
More
frequently
Less
frequently
Don't know
Do you think you will drive more or less frequently in ten years
than you do today?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
20% expect to have bought an electric car in 10 years, and 69% expect
gas prices to have increased by more than two dollars per gallon
93
20%
69%
47%
14%
33%
17%
In ten years, will you have bought an electric car? In ten years, do you think gas prices per gallon will
have increased by more than $2?
Yes No Don't Know
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
In ten years, will you
have bought an
electric car?
Yes 20 25 16 26 25 18 9 20 20 21
No 47 45 50 50 45 46 50 45 55 43
Don't know 33 30 35 24 30 36 41 35 25 36
think gas prices per
gallon will have
increased by more
than $2?
Yes 69 67 72 66 72 68 72 70 69 69
No 14 18 10 17 12 12 14 11 18 12
Don't know 17 15 19 17 16 20 14 19 13 19
*Reduced base sizes
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
47% think airport delays will be longer in 10 years than they
are today
94
47%
21%
32%
ALL
Longer
Shorter
Don't know
In ten years, do you think airline delays will be longer or shorter
than they are today?
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Longer 47 47 46 38 48 47 56 49 49 43
Shorter 21 25 18 25 24 18 19 20 22 22
Don't know 32 28 36 37 29 35 25 31 29 35

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
25% envision space travel being available to average people in 10
years, and 22% think humans will have encountered life beyond Earth
95
*Reduced base sizes
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
In ten years, do you think
commercial space travel will
be available to the average
person?*
Yes 25 27 23 24 29 29 11 21 29 25
No 46 50 43 45 41 41 66 49 46 44
Don't know 29 23 34 32 30 29 23 30 24 31
In ten years, do you think
humans will have had
encounters with life beyond?*
Yes 22 22 22 35 17 22 12 16 19 28
No 49 54 45 39 52 46 68 53 59 39
Don't know 29 24 33 27 32 33 20 31 22 32
25%
46%
29%
N=970
Yes
No
Don't know
In ten years, do you think commercial space travel will be available to
the average person?
22%
49%
29%
N= 970
Yes
No
Don't know
In ten years, do you think humans will have had encounters with life
beyond?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
59% think they were healthier 10 years ago, and 43% expect
to be healthier 10 years from now
96
59%
43%
24% 31%
17%
26%
Ten years ago, were you healthier or less healthy than you
are today?
In ten years, do you expect to be healthier or less healthy
than you are today?
Healthier Less healthy Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
healthier or less healthy
Healthier 59 56 61 47 56 65 67 61 55 59
Less healthy 24 30 19 32 26 19 21 21 27 24
Don't know 17 14 20 21 18 17 12 18 18 16
expect to be healthier or
less healthy than you
are today?*
Healthier 43 42 43 61 45 39 22 44 46 39
Less healthy 31 37 26 18 27 33 52 32 26 34
Don't know 26 21 31 21 28 28 26 23 28 27

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Almost half expect to weigh less in 10 years
97
32%
19%
50% 49%
17%
31%
Ten years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do
today?
In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you
do today?
More Less Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, did you
weigh more or less than
you do today?*
More 32 32 33 30 34 28 42 34 30 33
Less 50 52 49 54 51 54 36 46 56 50
Don't know 17 16 18 16 15 18 22 20 15 17
expect to weigh more or
less than you do
today?*
More 19 27 13 28 27 13 6 18 24 17
Less 49 45 54 42 44 54 60 50 48 50
Don't know 31 29 34 31 29 33 34 32 28 33

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
56% say they were more active 10 years ago, and 43%
expect to be more active in 10 years
98
56%
43%
27% 32%
17%
24%
Ten years ago, were you more or less physically active than
you are today?
In ten years, do you expect to be more or less physically
active than you are today?
More physically active Less physically active Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
more or less physically
active than you are
today?*
More physically active 56 55 57 54 49 58 67 57 58 55
Less physically active 27 30 24 26 34 24 23 25 30 26
Don't know 17 15 19 21 17 18 10 19 12 19
expect to be more or
less physically active
More physically active 43 42 45 61 54 39 9 46 47 38
Less physically active 32 37 28 15 23 35 67 35 29 32
Don't know 24 21 27 24 23 26 24 18 23 30

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
42% think there will be cures for some of the deadliest forms
of cancer in 10 years
99
Ten years from now, do you think we will have cured some of the
deadliest forms of cancer?
42%
37%
21%
Yes
No
Don't Know
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 42 41 43 43 35 48 38 35 38 53 38 40 40
54
43 49 36
No 37 40 34 39 44 32 36 39 42 32 39 42 37 25 38 33 39
Don’t know 21 20 22 18 21 20 26 25 20 15 22 19 23 21 19 18 25
ALL
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
36% say they will be reading printed newspapers in 10 years
100
68%
36%28%
46%
3%
18%
Do you currently read any newspapers or magazines printed
on paper?
Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any
newspapers or magazines printed on paper?
Yes No Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you currently read
any newspapers or
magazines printed on
paper?*
Yes 68 65 71 55 73 70 74 67 70 67
No 28 31 26 39 22 29 26 30 28 27
Don't know 3 4 3 6 6 2 0 3 2 5
Ten years from now, do
you think you will be
reading any newspapers
or magazines printed on
paper?*
Yes 36 35 37 35 36 34 42 37 41 31
No 46 48 44 49 45 43 51 47 41 50
Don't know 18 17 19 16 19 23 7 16 18 19

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
50% say they will be reading printed books in 10 years
101
68%
50%
26%
37%
5% 13%
Do you currently read any books printed on paper? Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any
books printed on paper?
Yes No Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you currently read
any books printed on
paper?*
Yes 68 60 77 66 71 68 68 75 66 64
No 26 33 20 25 20 30 32 22 31 27
Don't know 5 8 3 9 9 3 0 3 3 9
you think you will be
reading any books
printed on paper?*
Yes 50 43 57 51 54 46 50 54 48 48
No 37 44 30 36 34 37 43 35 39 38
Don't know 13 13 13 14 13 16 7 11 13 15

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are most likely to say football, basketball,
baseball and soccer will be more popular in 10 years
27% 31% 30% 30% 31% 35% 34% 33% 37% 35% 40%
15%
22% 25% 24%
32% 29% 34% 39% 34% 38%
43%
58%
47% 46% 46%
37% 36% 33% 29% 29% 27%
17%
Don't know Less popular More popular
102
(Ranked) Ten years from now, do you think each of these sports will be
more popular or less popular in the United States than it is today?
(Multiple Responses Permitted)

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Younger Americans are much more likely to think ultimate
fighting and boxing will become more popular
103
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years from now,
do you think each of
these sports will be
more popular or less
popular in the United
States than it is today?
(Multiple Responses
Permitted)
Football 58/15/27 62/17/21 54/13/33 58/15/27 56/15/29 58/12/29 61/18/21 60/14/26 59/15/26 56/15/29
Baseball 46/25/30 47/31/23 45/19/36 45/27/28 42/27/31 47/21/32 50/26/24 50/21/29 46/24/30 43/28/29
Basketball 47/22/31 51/25/24 44/19/37 55/15/29 43/25/32 45/21/34 47/29/25 50/21/29 47/23/30 45/22/33
Hockey 36/29/35 39/33/28 33/26/41 33/32/35 33/33/34 34/27/39 47/25/28 38/30/32 36/27/37 33/31/36
Soccer 46/24/30 50/28/22 42/21/37 43/30/27 41/28/31 46/21/33 55/19/26 47/22/30 43/25/32 46/26/28
Golf 33/34/34 33/39/29 33/29/38 22/43/35 27/38/35 34/30/36 52/23/26 39/31/31 33/33/33 27/36/37
Tennis 27/38/35 28/43/29 26/33/41 21/47/32 24/40/35 27/33/40 40/31/29 33/34/33 27/36/37 22/42/36
Ultimate fighting 37/32/31 42/34/24 31/30/38 47/24/30 43/27/30 31/35/34 25/46/29 32/37/31 36/32/33 41/28/30
Boxing 29/39/33 31/45/24 27/33/40 39/29/31 35/34/31 23/42/35 17/50/33 28/39/34 27/41/33 31/37/32
Snowboarding 29/34/37 30/40/30 29/28/44 28/35/37 26/38/36 32/29/39 30/34/36 29/32/38 34/29/37 26/38/36
Lacrosse 17/43/40 20/48/33 15/38/47 20/43/36 16/47/37 17/40/43 16/40/44 17/44/39 17/43/40 17/42/41
PERCENTAGES SHOWN BY MORE POPULAR/ LESS POPULAR/
DON’T KNOW

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
40% say football concussions will be less of a problem in 10 years,
and 37% think that youth football participation will be lower
104
31%
40%
30%
Ten years from now, do you think concussions will be a
more of a problem or less of a problem in football than
they are today?
More of a problem Less of a problem Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
you think concussions
will be a more of a
problem or less of a
problem in football than
they are today?*
More of a problem 31 37 25 42 32 27 21 26 29 36
Less of a problem 40 37 42 26 38 45 51 45 44 32
Don't know 30 25 33 33 29 28 28 29 26 32
you think participation
in youth and high
school football will be
higher or lower than it is
today?*
Higher 30 29 31 28 36 26 31 34 28 28
Lower 37 43 32 33 33 44 33 30 41 39
Don't know 33 28 37 39 31 29 36 36 30 33
30%
37% 33%
Ten years from now, do you think participation in youth and high
school football will be higher or lower than it is today?
Higher Lower Don't know

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
26% say they will exclusively stream TV shows on demand
in 10 years
105
45%
26%
29%
ALL N=1031 Live TV service
Exclusively
streaming TV
shows on-demand
Don't know
In ten years, do you think you will have a live TV service (such as cable or satellite) or will you have canceled your live TV service in
favor of exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand (through companies such as Netflix and Amazon)?
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Live TV service 45 46 44 43 44 43 53 49 46 40
Exclusively streaming TV
shows on-demand
26 25 28 29 30 21 25 29 28 21
Don't know 29 30 28 27 26 36 21 22 25 38

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
27% say they will go to the movies less often in 10 years
106
11%
46%
27%
16%
ALL N=970
More frequently
Same amount
Less frequently
Don't know
In ten years, do you think you will go to the movies more frequently, less
frequently or about the same amount as you do currently?
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More frequently 11 12 9 15 15 10 1 14 13 7
Same amount 46 45 47 42 48 44 50 47 49 42
Less frequently 27 27 28 18 22 30 43 24 28 30
Don't know 16 16 16 24 15 16 7 15 11 21

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
64% think The Simpsons will no longer be on TV in 10 years
107
36%
64%
ALL N=1031
Yes No
(If Group B) Ten years from now, do you think The Simpsons will still be on TV?
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 36 38 35 51 44 29 22 30 38 41
No 64 62 65 49 56 71 78 70 62 59

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are split on whether TV will be better in 10 years
108
35% 37%
45%
37%
19%
26%
Ten years ago, Friends and Frasier were broadcasting their final
episodes, while shows such as House, Desperate Housewives,
Entourage and The Apprentice were debuting. Do you think television
is better or worse now than it was in 2004?
Do you think television will be better or worse ten years from now than
it is today?
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think television is better or worse
now than it was in 2004?*
Better 35 42 29 44 49 28 19 40 27 37
Worse
45 38 53 29 34 52 70 41 59 38
Don't know 19 21 18 27 17 21 11 19 14 24
Do you think television will be better or
worse ten years from now than it is
today?
Better 37 44 30 36 47 32 32 36 38 37
Worse 37 31 44 33 34 38 48 38 39 35
Don't know 26 25 26 32 20 31 20 26 23 28

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Most, especially women, think the majority of TV shows in 10
years will be Reality TV
109
28%
44%
28%
ALL N=1031
Scripted
Reality TV
Don't know
Do you think the majority of TV shows ten years from now will be scripted or reality programs?
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Scripted 28 36 20 41 29 24 19 31 26 27
Reality TV 44 38 49 38 47 44 45 44 45 42
Don't know 28 26 31 21 24 33 35 25 29 31

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
54% say they were happier 10 years ago, and 46% expect to
be happier in 10 years
110
54%
46%
24% 22%22%
32%
Ten years ago, were you happier or less happy than you are
today?
In ten years, do you expect to be happier or less happy than
you are today?
Happier Less happy Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
happier or less happy
Happier 54 54 53 46 56 58 51 53 54 53
Less happy 24 23 25 27 26 22 21 24 23 25
Don't know 22 22 22 27 19 20 28 22 23 22
expect to be happier or
less happy than you are
today?*
Happier 46 40 52 48 49 52 26 50 51 40
Less happy 22 29 16 25 21 17 31 17 20 27
Don't know 32 31 33 27 30 32 43 33 30 32

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
52% say that their lives were less stressful 10 years ago, 41%
expect their lives to be less stressful in 10 years
111
32% 32%
52%
41%
16%
27%
Ten years ago, was your day-to-day life more stressful or less
stressful than it is today?
In ten years, do you expect your day-to-day life will be more
stressful or less stressful than it is today?
More stressful Less stressful Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, was your
day-to-day life more
stressful or less
stressful than it is
today?*
More stressful 32 36 29 34 29 34 31 31 36 29
Less stressful 52 51 53 48 55 50 58 52 51 53
Don't know 16 14 18 18 16 17 11 16 13 18
expect your day-to-day
life will be more
stressful or less
stressful than it is
today?*
More stressful 32 38 28 45 33 24 31 31 32 33
Less stressful 41 39 42 27 42 48 45 43 43 37
Don't know 27 23 30 29 26 28 25 26 24 29

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
112
56% think that people will be living longer in 2024
56%
42%
50%
57%
78%
25%
34% 32%
23%
9%
19% 23%
18% 20%
13%
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Longer Shorter Don’t know
Ten years from now, do you think people will be living longer or shorter?

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
86% say they do not own their own business, and 69% do
not expect to do so in 10 years
113
10% 18%
86%
69%
4% 14%
Do you currently own your own business? In ten years, do you think you will own your own
business?
Yes No Don't Know
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you currently own
your own business?
Yes 10 12 8 10 8 8 14 6 11 17 9 12 11 6 9 11 10
No 86 84 88 86 89 86 83 89 87 81 84 84 86 93 86 88 84
Don’t know 4 4 4 3 2 6 3 6 2 2 7 4 4 1 4 1 6
think you will own
your own business?
Yes 18 23 13 21 15 15 21 17 17 20 29 28 10 1 17 16 20
No 69 65 72 65 74 68 68 67 72 69 56 56 74 94 68 76 63
Don’t know 14 12 15 14 11 17 11 16 11 11 15 16 15 4 15 8 17
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
71% say they do not work in an office; among those who do, 57%
expect to work in an office in 10 years
114
25%
71%
4%
Yes
No
Don't know
Do you currently work in an office?
57%29%
15%
Office
Remote
location
Don't know
IF CURRENTLY WORK IN OFFICE, ten years from now, do you think
you will work in an office or in a remote location, like from home?
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you currently work
in an office?
Yes 25 27 23 26 25 23 25 8 25 51 19 37 28 6 23 32 20
No 71 69 73 71 73 71 72 86 73 48 75 60 68 93 73 66 74
Don’t know 4 4 4 3 2 6 3 6 2 2 7 4 4 1 4 2 6
IF CURRENTLY
WORK IN OFFICE,
ten years from now,
do you think you will
work in an office or in
a remote location, like
from home? *
Office 57 61 51 56 58 51 64 58 58 56 59 63 51 33 65 54 51
Remote location 29 28 29 30 28 34 20 24 23 33 27 27 29 44 23 31 31
Don’t know 15 11 19 14 15 15 15 18 20 11 13 10 19 22 12 15 18
ALL
N=491
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are more likely to say they will prefer to live in a
suburb or rural area than in a city in 10 years
115
In ten years, do you think you will prefer to live in a city, suburb or rural
America?
23% 35% 33% 9%
City Suburb Rural area Don't know
In 2024
think you will prefer
to live in a city,
suburb or rural
America?
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
City 23 28 19 17 19 27 27 23 23 22 31 25 18 21 29 17 23
Suburb 35 37 33 46 35 29 35 28 34 46 33 34 35 39 35 40 32
Rural area 33 26 39 28 39 35 26 35 37 27 22 34 36 36 28 37 33
Don’t know 9 9 9 9 7 9 12 14 6 4 14 7 10 4 8 6 12
ALL

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
58% do not think they will be in their current jobs in 10 years
116
18% 25%
58%
46%
23% 29%
In ten years, do you think you will be in your current
job?
Do you think you will be laid off at some point in the
next ten years?
Yes No Don't Know
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
think you will be in
your current job?*
Yes 18 22 16 15 15 24 16 8 20 28 16 24 18 13 16 28 13
No 58 59 57 56 56 55 66 59 59 61 54 54 55 76 62 55 57
Don’t know 23 19 27 30 28 21 18 32 22 11 30 22 26 10 22 16 29
be laid off at some
point in the next ten
years? *
Yes 25 30 20 29 26 26 20 25 24 25 33 27 23 16 23 27 26
No 46 43 49 45 47 47 45 38 50 57 31 47 47 69 50 49 42
Don’t know
29 27 30 26 26 27 35 37 26 17 37 26 31 15 27 24 32
All
N=970
*Reduced base sizes

IMAGINING 2024
IMAGINING 2024
53% of those who are employed do not expect to be working
for the same company in 10 years
117
26%
41%
53%
35%
21% 24%
IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will still be
working at the same company where you currently work?
IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will be working
in the same career field as you currently do?
Yes No Don't Know
All
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
IF EMPLOYED, in ten
years, do you think
you will still be
working at the same
company where you
currently work?*
Yes 26 28 24 20 26 28 27 16 27 31 25 25 28 19 23 34 21
No 53 56 51 59 51 53 52 57 49 55 59 50 51 77 58 49 54
Don’t know 21 16 25 20 23 20 21 27 24 13 16 25 21 4 19 17 25
IF EMPLOYED, in ten
years, do you think
you will be working in
the same career field
as you currently do?*
Yes 41 47 36 38 40 45 41 27 44 50 50 40 41 26 40 48 37
No 35 33 36 41 38 30 34 42 30 35 30 35 34 58 37 30 36
Don’t know 24 20 28 21 22 25 26 31 26 16 20 26 25 16 23 22 26
IF EMPLOYED N=479
*Reduced base sizes

America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey - Full Appendix

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America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey - Full Appendix