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57086 09 planning

  1. 1. 957086Contract and Project ManagementDavid Sowden, The University of Hull
  2. 2. 957086Contract and Project ManagementPlanningDavid Sowden, The University of Hull
  3. 3. Overview• Planning – Fundamental principles – Contexts – Process description – Designing a Plan – Defining and Analysing Products – Identifying Activities and Dependencies – Estimating – Contracting a Project* – Scheduling – Analysing Risk – Completing a Plan 3
  4. 4. Project management tools B F C GProject brainstorming and initial concepts, ideas, structures, aims, etcGathering and identifying all elements, especially causal and hidden factorsScheduling and timescalesIdentifying and sequencing parallel and interdependent activities and stagesFinancials - costings, budgets, revenues, profits, variances, etcMonitoring, forecasting, reportingTroubleshooting, problem identification, diagnosis and solutionsSnapshot or map overview - non-sequential, non-scheduledFormat for communications, presentations, updates, progress reports, etcMatrix key B = Brainstorming main tool F = Fishbone/Ishikawa Diagrams option/secondary tool C = Critical Path Analysis Flow Diagrams G = Gantt Charts sometimes useful 4
  5. 5. ‘Tailoring the methodologies to suit’ 5
  6. 6. Brainstorming/Mind-mapping Who? What? When? Where? Why? How? 6
  7. 7. EXAMPLEhttp://www.mindmeister.com/ 7
  8. 8. The Moscow MethodSetting priorities M Must have requirement S Should have if at all possible C Could have but not critical W Would be good to have... (Won’t have the time to do it now, but maybe later) 8
  9. 9. History Fishbone diagrams are also called cause and effect diagrams and Ishikawa diagrams, after Kaoru Ishikawa (1915-89), a Japanese professor specialising in industrial quality management and engineering who devised the technique in the 1960s. 9
  10. 10. Fishbone diagram 10
  11. 11. Fishbone diagram cause effect problem or outcome 10
  12. 12. Fishbone diagram cause effectA fishbone diagram has a central spine running left to right, around which is built a problemmap of factors which contribute to the final result (or problem). or outcome 10
  13. 13. Fishbone diagram cause effectA fishbone diagram has a central spine running left to right, around which is built a problemmap of factors which contribute to the final result (or problem). or outcome 10
  14. 14. Fishbone diagram cause effect Factors Factors problem or outcomeFactors Factors 10
  15. 15. Fishbone diagram cause effect Factors Factors For each project the main categories of factors are identified and shown as main ‘bones’ leading to the spine problem or outcomeFactors Factors 10
  16. 16. Fishbone diagram cause effect Factors Factors For each project the main categories of factors are identified and shown as main ‘bones’ leading to the spine problem or outcomeFactors Factors 10
  17. 17. Fishbone diagram cause effect Factors Factors For each project the main categories of factors are identified and shown as main ‘bones’ leading to the spine problem or outcome P Into each category can be drawn ‘primary’Factors elements (P) and into these can be drawn secondary elements or factors (S), this can be extended to third and fourth level factors if necessary S Factors 10
  18. 18. Fishbone diagram cause effectEquipment People problem or outcomeProcess Materials 11
  19. 19. Fishbone diagram EXAMPLE 12
  20. 20. History - CPM and PERT Basically, CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique) are project management techniques, which have been created out of the need of Western industrial and military establishments to plan, schedule and control complex projects. CPM/PERT or Network Analysis as the technique is sometimes called, developed along two parallel streams, one industrial and the other military. 13
  21. 21. History - CPM and PERT In 1957 the Critical Path Method (CPM) was developed as a network model for project management. • uses a fixed time estimate for each activity • does not consider time variations that can have impact on the completion of the product/project • easy to understand and use CPM was the discovery of M.R.Walker of E.I.Du Pont de Nemours & Co and J.E.Kelly of Remington Rand. The Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) is a network model that allows for the randomness in activity times. PERT was developed in 1958 for the US Navy’s Polaris project in response to having thousands of contractors involved. 14
  22. 22. Project critical path analysis(flow diagram or chart) Critical Path B E Analysis sounds very complicated, 1 3 but its a very H logical and effective 2 method for planning and A C F finish managing complex 2 5 2 projects. A critical I path analysis is 2 normally shown as a flow diagram, D G task identifier whose format is 4 3 A linear (organised in expected time to2 a line), and complete task specifically a time- Critical Path Analysis is also called Critical Path Method - its line. the same thing - and the terms are commonly abbreviated, to CPA and CPM. 15
  23. 23. Steps in the PERT Planning Process• Identify the specific activities and milestones• Determine the proper sequence of the activities• Construct a network diagram• Estimate the time required for each activity• Determine the critical path• Update the PERT chart as the project progresses. 16
  24. 24. Critical Path• The Key Concept used by CPM/PERT is that a small set of activities, which make up the longest path through the activity network control the entire project.• If these "critical" activities could be identified and assigned to responsible persons, management resources could be optimally used by concentrating on the few activities which determine the fate of the entire project. 17
  25. 25. Critical Path - 5 useful questions• when preparing a network diagram • Is this a Start Activity? • Is this a Finish Activity? • What Activity Precedes this? • What Activity Follows this? • What Activity is Concurrent with this? 18
  26. 26. Drawing the CPM Network 4 activity 3 0 ES 7w ks ks 11 w 0 EF dum 3 0 wks my a activity activity 1 ctivit 4 y 4w ks ks activity 6w 2 4 19
  27. 27. The Backward Pass - Latest finish time rule To make the Backward Pass, we begin at the final event and work backwards 4 to the first event. 4 3 0 ES 7w ks 11 ks w 0 EF dum 3 11 0 wks 1 my a 4 ctivit y 4w ks ks 6w 2 4 4 20
  28. 28. Tabulation & Analysis of Activities Event Duration Earliest Earliest Latest Latest Total (wks) Start Finish Start Finish Float 1-2 4 0 4 0 4 0 2-3 0 4 4 4 4 0 3-4 7 4 11 4 11 0 1-3 3 0 3 1 4 1 2-4 6 4 10 5 11 1 21
  29. 29. Scheduling of Activities using a Gantt Chart Project Planning Period Timeline in Weeks Activity Duration 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (wks) 1-2 4 2-3 0 3-4 7 1-3 3 2-4 6 Project due date 11 weeks after start 22
  30. 30. The PERT (Probabilistic) approachSo far we have talked about projects, where there is high certainty about theoutcomes of activities. In other words, the cause-effect logic is well known.This is particularly the case in Engineering projects.However, in Research & Development projects, or in Social Projects whichare defined as "Process Projects", where learning is an important outcome,the cause-effect relationship is not so well established.In such situations, the PERT approach is useful, because it can accommodatethe variation in event completion times, based on an expert’s or an expertcommittee’s estimates. 23
  31. 31. The PERT (Probabilistic) approach For each activity, three time estimates are taken • The Most Optimistic • The Most Likely • The Most PessimisticThe Duration of an activity is calculated using the following formula: to+4 tm+ tp te = 6 24
  32. 32. The PERT (Probabilistic) approach to+4 tm+ tp te = 6 te Expected time tm Most probable activity tp time to Optimistic time Pessimistic time 25
  33. 33. Standard Deviation tp - to s1 = 6 The Variance is the Square of the Standard Deviation to Optimistic time tp Pessimistic time 26
  34. 34. EXAMPLECritical Path critical path in red
  35. 35. Scheduling Startsimple activity-on-node diagram 28
  36. 36. Scheduling Task 1 Start Task 2simple activity-on-node diagram 28
  37. 37. Scheduling Task 1 Task 3 Start Task 2 Task 4simple activity-on-node diagram 28
  38. 38. Scheduling Task 1 Task 3 Start Task 2 Task 4 Earliest start Duration of Earliest finish time for the the activity time for the activity activity Task 4 Latest start Total float for Latest finish time for the the activity time for the activity activitysimple activity-on-node diagram 28
  39. 39. Scheduling Task 1 Task 3 Start Task 2 Task 4 Earliest start Duration of Earliest finish time for the the activity time for the activity activity ES = wk18 D = wk5 EF = wk23 Task 4 Task 4 Latest start Total float for Latest finish LS = wk18 TF = wk0 LF = wk23 time for the the activity time for the activity activitysimple activity-on-node diagram 28
  40. 40. Scheduling Task 1 Task 3 Start Task 5 Task 2 Task 4 Earliest start Duration of Earliest finish time for the the activity time for the activity activity ES = wk18 D = wk5 EF = wk23 Task 4 Task 4 Latest start Total float for Latest finish LS = wk18 TF = wk0 LF = wk23 time for the the activity time for the activity activitysimple activity-on-node diagram 28
  41. 41. Scheduling Task 1 Task 3 Start Task 5 End Task 2 Task 4 Earliest start Duration of Earliest finish time for the the activity time for the activity activity ES = wk18 D = wk5 EF = wk23 Task 4 Task 4 Latest start Total float for Latest finish LS = wk18 TF = wk0 LF = wk23 time for the the activity time for the activity activitysimple activity-on-node diagram 28
  42. 42. Further Reading• Project Management Institute (2003). A Guide To The Project Management Body Of Knowledge (3rd ed. ed.). Project Management Institute. ISBN 1-930699-45-X.• Klastorin, Ted (2003). Project Management: Tools and Trade-offs (3rd ed. ed.). Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-41384-4.• Kerzner, Harold (2003). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling (8th Ed. ed.). Wiley. ISBN 0-471-22577-0.• Milosevic, Dragan Z. (2003). Project Management ToolBox: Tools and Techniques for the Practicing Project Manager. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-20822-8. 29
  43. 43. EXAMPLEMind Map Diagram fororganising a conference
  44. 44. Selected theme EXAMPLE required date List of venue Speaker requirements options Booking requirements Speaker List of possible invitations venues Booked Venue speakers enquires Mailing list Agreed Selected and programme booked venue Mail shots Slides and Printed FeedbackCovers Notes agenda form Press release Delegate handout pack Final Responses attendance list On-the-day staff Product Flow Diagram for Conference organising a conference
  45. 45. ProductSelected theme Product ID A Activity ID A1 Receive theme EXAMPLE Associated Activities Predecessor -Required date B B1 Receive date -Mailing list C C1 Receive mailing list -Speaker Option D D1 Identify possible speakers A1 D2 Prepare speaker database D1Speaker invitations E E1 Prepare speaker invite letter D2 E2 Merge invite letter E1 E3 Post invite letters E2Booked speakers F F1 Receive replies E3 F2 Confirm speaker booking F1Slides and notes G G1 Prepare slides F2 G2 Put into show order G1 G3 Print slides G2Covers H H1 Design covers A1 H2 Print covers H1Agreed programme J J1 Draft programme F2 J2 Agree programme J1Printed agenda K K1 Agree agenda J2 K2 Print agenda K1Feedback Form L L1 Agree feedback form J2
  46. 46. Gantt Charts• Gantt Charts (commonly wrongly called gant charts) are extremely useful project management tools. The Gantt Chart is named after US engineer and consultant Henry Gantt (1861-1919) who devised the technique in the 1910s.• Gantt charts are excellent models for scheduling budgeting, reporting, presenting and communicating project plans and progress easily and quickly,• But as a rule Gantt Charts are not as good as a Critical Path Analysis Flow Diagram for identifying and showing interdependent factors, or for mapping a plan from and/or into all of its detailed causal or contributing elements.• see - www.smartsheet.com or www.mindgenius.com 33
  47. 47. Gantt Charts EXAMPLE 34
  48. 48. Gantt Charts EXAMPLE 35
  49. 49. TASKS 1Create Critical path analysis and Gantt chart 36
  50. 50. Critical Path Analysis & TASKSGantt Chart Create a time-line (Critical Path Analysis) and a Gantt Chart for this taskA cooked full English breakfast 2• Consider colour coding the time blocks to denote type of activity (for example, intense, watching brief, directly managed, delegated and left-to-run, etc.)• You can schedule ‘review’ and insert break points. (are you burning the toast?)• At the end of each line you can show as many cost columns for the activities as you need. You could estimate the produce, labour and the utility costs and list these within the chart.• (A cooked breakfast will shows minutes, but normally you would use weeks, or for very big long- term projects, months.) 37
  51. 51. Critical Path Analysis & TASKSGantt Chart Create a time-line (Critical Path Analysis) and a Gantt Chart for this taskA cooked full English breakfast 3• A Gantt chart like this can be used to keep track of progress for each activity and how the costs are running.• You can move the time blocks around to report on actuals versus planned, and to re-schedule, and to create new plan updates.• Costs columns can show plan and actuals and variances, and calculate whatever totals, averages, ratios, etc., that you need.• Gantt Charts are probably the most flexible and useful of all project management tools, but remember they do not very easily or obviously show the importance and inter-dependence of related parallel activities, and they wont obviously show the necessity to complete one task before another can begin, as a Critical Path Analysis will do, so you may need both tools, especially at the planning stage, and almost certainly for large complex projects. 38
  52. 52. Critical Path Analysis EXAMPLEflow diagram Toast Bread Grill Bacon and Tomatoes Prepare Fry eggs Purchase ingredientsingredients Fry sausages Prepare cooking equipment Start Serve Assemble Lay table crockery/utensils and condiments Warm plates Time 39
  53. 53. Gantt Charts EXAMPLE costActivity time - minutes cap revPrepare ingredients 8Prepare equipment 5Assemble crockery/utensils 8Warm plates 5Grill bacon 3 8Grill Tomatoes 2 7Lay table 3Fry sausages 4 5Toast Bread 2 3Fry eggs 3 2Serve 3Total costs 14 58 40
  54. 54. Resources• http://www.projectinabox.org.uk/planner.asp 41
  55. 55. Preparing estimates (1)• Time and resources required – Type of resource • skills required for the type of resource – include both human and non-human » equipment, travel, expenses............. – Effort required for each activity • these will be approximate and provisional 42
  56. 56. Preparing estimates (2)• Assume that resources will be productive for, say, 80% of there time• Resources working on numerous project take longer (e.g. supervisors availability)• People are generally optimistic and underestimate time taken• Make use of other people’s experience and your own• Alway build in provision for problems solving, meetings and other unexpected events• Cost each activity, not the whole• Communicate any assumptions, exclusions or constraints to the user(s) 43
  57. 57. Analysing Risk Risk analysis Risk management Identify the risks Evaluate the risks Monitor and report Identify suitable Plan and resource responses to risk Select 44
  58. 58. Analysing Risk EXAMPLEFactor Likelihood Impact Mitigation StrategyFailure to recruit staff Medium High Minimise number of staff to be recruited. Ensure recruitment cycle begins as rapidly after project approved as possible. Ensure remuneration adequate to level of responsibility and expertise. Use specialist recruitment agency if necessary. Other staff seconded from other duties and additionally trained as triage solution.Underestimate Low Medium Close integration with OSS community effort todifficulty of specific mobilise additional resource to bear on problemtechnical development space.Difficulty integrating Medium High Deploy Identity Management software based onwith data sources for open standards. Direct engagement with systemsidentity specialists.Difficulty integrating Medium High Work with the various Engineering institutions tothe numerous develop a concept concerning the creation andelectronic systems adoption of Standards (i.e. LEAP2A)within the EngineeringframeworkProject fails sufficiently Low High Staff within the University of Hull, particularly theto engage engineering Knowledge Exchange will ensure that the ‘learnercommunities voice’ is represented throughout the project, inclusive of the broad diversity (including geographic) of learners represented within the partnership.
  59. 59. Completing a Plan• A plan should contain the following: • Plan Description • Plan Prerequisites • External Dependencies • Planning Assumptions • Lessons Incorporated • Monitoring and Control • Budgets • Tolerances • Product descriptions • Schedule (see ‘Plan’ template) 46
  60. 60. TASKReview your project plan

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