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Inclusive Futures for Europe. Beyond the Impacts of Industry 4.0 and Digital Disruption

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Preliminary results of Beyond 4.0 (by Steven Dhondt and Michael Kohlgrüber

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Inclusive Futures for Europe. Beyond the Impacts of Industry 4.0 and Digital Disruption

  1. 1. Inclusive Futures for Europe. Beyond the Impacts of Industry 4.0 and Digital Disruption Dr. Michael Kohlgrüber / Clara Behrend TU Dortmund University – sfs (TUDO) European School of Social Innovation (ESSI) Global Conference on Social Innovation and Socio-Digital Transformation 28th of October 2019, Dortmund
  2. 2. The Scope of BEYOND 4.0 Creating data for the analysis of future work Creating data for the analysis of future work Understanding future skills Understanding future skills Historical perspectiveHistorical perspective Regional perspectives on digital transformation Regional perspectives on digital transformation Company strategiesCompany strategies Socio-economic consequences Socio-economic consequences Welfare, taxes and inclusive wealth Welfare, taxes and inclusive wealth This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 8222293.
  3. 3. Work Package 6 – Understanding Future Skills • Task 6.1 Understanding the future skills and enriching the skills debate • Task 6.2 The demand side for new skills – employer requirements • Task 6.3 The supply side – consequences for vocational education and training • Task 6.4 Creating new opportunities for inclusiveness • Task 6.5 Creating an approach for better data
  4. 4. Job profiles Skills EU (regional convergence) Member States (VET systems) Companies (training) Workers´ Demand TheDemandSideTheSupplySide Skills for the digital transformation Conceptualization Calculation Tasks Organisations´Capabilities Competences Future Job The Skills Framework
  5. 5. Conceptualization • Framework to classify new skills for the digital transformation • Based on literature review • based on current frameworks (e.g. EQF, O*Net classification) • refined in line with other project findings • reflects, what kind of skill change is needed (e.g. reskilling, upgrading, new skills)
  6. 6. Skill Categorization by PWC EU project „Skills for Smart Industrial Specialisation and Digital Transformation“ Source: PWC (2018): Skills for Smart Industrial Specialisation and Digital Transformation – Interim Report, p. 10.
  7. 7. Skills for future work Digital Skills Analogous Skills Management and Entre- preneurship Quality, risk and safety Social Skills Complex and creative thinking Self- manage ment skills Basic Skills Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills Skills for researching/ developing digital and cyber technologies Professional Skills (incl. skills from experience-based work)
  8. 8. Example for category definition Complex and Creative Thinking • In the context of future skills, complex and creative thinking confides a set of skills very often discussed in publications dealing with skill change as being very important and gaining in importance. It includes cognitive skills, thinking techniques, innovation, creativity, problem solving, analytical thinking, process knowledge, capability to think in abstract ways/ see the whole process, transfer knowledge from one are to another and similar skills of using one’s cognitive abilities in a complex or creative way. Often these kinds of skills are required to be combined with field-specific knowledge or professional skills.
  9. 9. Digital Skills Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills Skills for researching/ developing cyber and digital technologies Pfeiffer 2016 • Be able to describe an IT- related problem to an IT- professional in a precise way (speak “IT-language”) • Data safety and privacy • Handle data in safe ways White Paper (Rampelt et al 2019) • Basic functional digital skills • being able to use digital devices • Generic digital skills: • Harness digital devices to use, interpret and create numeric and literary information sources for communication Pfeiffer 2016: • Mediate and translate between material and virtual sphere • Programming • Maintain software • Handle robotics • Handling big data: • Program algorithms • Interpret big data based information in a correct way • Relate them to the real world in an adequate way University of Phoenix • Computational thinking (ability to translate vast amounts of data into abstract concepts) PWC • Electronics • Optics • Photonics • Engineering (incl. Systems Engineering) • Computer science • Nanoscience • Materials Science • Statistics • Design Methodology • Operations Analysis • Big data analytics • Systems Analysis • Business analytics Computer- Aided Design (CAD) • Multidisciplinary design optimisation • Cyber Technologies • Computer Skills
  10. 10. Digital Skills Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills Skills for researching/ developing cyber and digital technologies Pfeiffer • Be able to describe an IT-related problem to an IT-professional in a precise way (speak “IT-language”) • Data safety and privacy • Handle data in safe ways White Paper (Rampelt et al 2019) • Basic functional digital skills • being able to use digital devices • Generic digital skills: • Harness digital devices to use, interpret and create numeric and lierary information sources for communication and collaboration with others • Computational thinking, i.e. understanding of what a device or code is doing (also in terms of deep learning or AI) without needing the ability to change this Lamb et al (21st century skills) • ICT literacy Key competences for life long learning (New Skills Agenda • Digital competence Skills Panorama most requested skills • Use a computer • Use office systems and Microsoft office CEEMET • Cybersecurity skills Pfeiffer 2016: • Mediate and translate between material and virtual sphere • Programming • Maintain software • Handle robotics • Handling big data: • Program algorithms • Interpret big data based information in a correct way • Relate them to the real world in an adequate way University of Phoenix • Computational thinking (ability to translate vast amounts of data into abstract concepts and to understand data-based reasoning) Berger/Frey • E-leadership skills: • Encompassing both ICT and management skills to adapt businesses and organizations to accommodate ICT technology, • Finding new ways to conduct business or identifying innovation opportunities PWC • Electronics • Optics • Photonics • Engineering (incl. Systems Engineering) • Computer science • Nanoscience • Materials Science • Statistics • Design Methodology • Operations Analysis • Big data analytics • Systems Analysis • Business analytics Computer-Aided Design (CAD) • Multidisciplinary design optimisation • Cyber Technologies • Computer Skills • Programming • Computational thinking • Mathematics • Microelectronics • Process Layout & Optimisation • Life-cycle analysis • Scalability analysis • Mobile app design and development • Enterprise resource planning • Artificial intelligence • Complex business systems • Big data analytics Computer-Aided Engineering (CAE)
  11. 11. Digital Skills Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills University of Phoenix: • New-media literacy: critically assess and develop content that uses new media forms and use them to persuade • Virtual collaboration (ability to work productively, drive engagement, and demonstrate presence as a member of a virtual tem • Virtual collaboration (ability to work productively, drive engagement, and demonstrate presence as a member of a virtual team Berger/Frey • User skills: • Abilities to use ICT as tools in their own jobs • May involve generic software of specialized ICT tools PWC Uses categorization of DigComp Plus mentions the following skills in quality, risk and safety category • Computer-aided quality assurance (CAQ) Kai Reinhardt • Understand and interpret big amounts of data • Expertise for law and regulation • Application of AI skills • Advanced mathematical skills CEEMET • Software and hardware integration • Focused programming and coding skills • Analytical skills DigComp • Information and data literacy (incl. browsing, searching for and filtering data, info and digital contecnt ,evaluatuon, managing) • Communication and Collaboration (interacting using dig tech, sharing, engaging, collaboration, netiquette, manage digital identity) • Digital content creation (developing, integration, copy right and licenses, programming) • Safety (protect devices, personal data, health and well-being and the environment) • Problem Solving (solve technical problems, identify needs and techn. Responses, creatively use digital technologies, identify digital competence gaps) eCF framework • Problem management • Cloud computing and virtualisation • Security skills • IT and platform architecture • Web development • Internet of Things • Social Media • Mathematical modelling and simulation • Systems evaluation • Systems integration • Characterisation and analysis • Physics • Business analytics • Internet of Things Berger/Frey • Practitioner skills: • Develop • Design • Install • Managae • Market …ICT systems Kai Reinhardt • Development of AI E-CF framework (version 3.0) • IS and business strategy alignment • Architecture Design • Application Design • Systems Engineering • Technology Trend Monitoring Skills for researching/ developing cyber and digital technologies
  12. 12. Digital Skills Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills Skills for researching/ developing cyber technologies E-CF framework (version 3.0) • Product/Service Planning • Application Development • Component Integration • Testing • Solution Deployment • Documentation Production • User support • Change support • Service Delivery • Problem Management • Information and Knowledge Management • Digital Marketing • Information Security Strategy Development • ICT quality strategy • Education and training provision • Risk management • Process improvement • Information Security Management ecF framework Sustainable development
  13. 13. Professional Skills All occupation-specific, job-specific or field-specific skills Pfeiffer Knowledge from experience Lebendiges Arbeitsvermögen (nach Pfeiffer) intutition emotions/feeling from your guts Feel for technology Arbeitsvermögen (nach Pfeiffer)
  14. 14. Analogous Skills Quality, risk and safety Skills Panorama most requested skills • Quality standards PWC • Quality Management • Quality control analysis • Risk assessment • Working conditions/health and safety • Emergency management and response • Industrial hygiene • Equipment safety • Ethics E-CF framework (version 3.0) • Information Security Strategy Development • ICT quality strategy • Education and training provision Social Skills Pfeiffer • work effectively in teams (also in Skills Panorama) • Articulate knowledge in easy way for different audiences Future Skills (KcKinsey und Stifterverband) • Social intelligence (ebenso Uni Phoenix) Key competences for life long learning (New Skills Agenda • Communication in mother tongue • Communication in foreign languages Lamb et al (21st century skills) • Communication • Collaboration • Social and cross-cultural skills (ebenso Uni Phoenix) Skills Panorama most requested skills • Use communication techniques • Assist customers/customer service • Teamwork principles/work as a team • Team buliding Management and Entre-preneurship Pfeiffer • Vermittlung und Förderung von Innovation als Querschnittsaufgabe Lamb et al (21st century skills) • Leadership • Responsibility Acatech • Problemlösungs- und Optimierungskompetenz • Führungskompetenz Key competences for life long learning (New Skills Agenda • Sense of initiative and entrepreneurship Skills Panorama most requested skills • Provide leadership Complex and creative thinking Pfeiffer: • Interpret information in the right way and relate it to the real world in an adequate way • Identify better business models building on new information • Be open to new things • Identify innovations as such • Knowledge from experience • Lebendiges Arbeitsvermögen (nach Pfeiffer) • intutition • emotions/feeling from your guts • Feel for technology • Arbeitsvermögen (nach Pfeiffer) • React to changing tasks and demands (auch bei Lamb et al zu finden • Tackle complexity • Work and decide in complex interconnected structures • Work interdisciplinary (combine knowledge and skills from different fields of work) (auch bei acatech, University of Phoenix zu finden) Self-Management Skills Lamb et al (21st century skills) • Productivity and accountability Acatech • Fähigkeit zur Koordination von Arbeitsabläufen • Dienstleistungsorientierung • Eigentverantwortliche Entscheidungen Key competences for life long learning (New Skills Agenda) • Learning to learn Skills Panorama most requested skills • Project management • Show responsibility • Tolerate stress • Work independently Basic Skills (Numeracy, Literacy, Problem Solving) Lamb et al (21st century skills) • Information literacy • Media literacy Key competences for life long learning (New Skills Agenda • Mathematical competences • Basic c. in science • Basic c. in technology Kai Reinhardt • Mathematische und/oder Lese-/Schreibkompetenz CEEMET • Basic literacy, numeracy and digital skills should be available for everyone O*Net • Active learning • Active listening • Critical thinking • Learning strategies • Mathematics • Reading comprehension • Science • Speaking • Writing
  15. 15. Analogous Skills Quality, risk and safety Social Skills Skills Panorama most requested skills • Teamwork principles/work as a team • Team buliding Future Skills (Stifterverband) • The ability to negotiate complex social relationships (like caring for others or managing cultural sensitivities) (ebenso bei University of Phoenix zu finden) Key competences for life long learning (New Skills Agenda • Social and civic competences • Cultural awareness and expression Management and Entre-preneurship Complex and creative thinking PWC • Integration skills • Design-Mindset • Continuous experimentation • Complex problem solving • Creativity • Systems thinking Acatech • Mitwirkung an Innovationsprozessen Future Skills (Stiferverband) • Cognitive intelligence • The ability to carry out task in an unpredictable environment University of Phoenix • Novel & adaptive thinking: coming up with solutions and response beyond that which is routine or rule-based • Design mindset: ability to represent and develop tasks and work processes for desired outcomes (Prozessversrtändnis?) • Cognitive load management (filter information, maximize cognitive functioning) Self-Management Skills Skills Panorama most requested skills • Manage time • Demonstrate enthusiasm PWC Self-management: • Persistence • Passion, enthusiasm and curiosity • Sense of responsibility • Stress tolerance • Attention to detail • Adaptability • Ability to thrive on failures • Balancing life and work demands • Self-discipline • Self-control • Proactivity • Continuous improvement orientation • Active learning • Alertness • Judgement and decision making Basic Skills (Numeracy, Literacy, Problem Solving) Lamb et al (21st century skills) • Information literacy • Media literacy Key competences for life long learning (New Skills Agenda • Mathematical competences • Basic c. in science • Basic c. in technology Kai Reinhardt • Mathematische und/oder Lese-/Schreibkompetenz CEEMET • Basic literacy, numeracy and digital skills should be available for everyone O*Net • Active learning • Active listening • Critical thinking • Learning strategies • Mathematics • Reading comprehension • Science • Speaking • Writing E-CF framework (version 3.0) • Risk management • Process improvement • Information Security Management
  16. 16. Analogous Skills Quality, risk and safety Social Skills Future Skills (Stifterverband) • The ability to negotiate complex social relationships (like caring for others or managing cultural sensitivities) (ebenso bei University of Phoenix zu finden) Skills Panorama most requested skills • English • German • Foreign languages for international careers PWC • Interpersonal skills • Verbal communication • Written communication • Presentation skills • Public communication • Virtual collaboration Kai Reinhardt • Fremdsprachenkenntnisse • Mündliche und schriftliche Ausdrucksfähigkeit CEEMET • Communication • Cooperation Management and Entre-preneurship Complex and creative thinking Kai Reinhardt • Innovative thinking • Willingness to/desire for change • Creativity O*Net (nennt die Systems Skills): • Judgment and decision making • Systems analysis • Systems evaluation Lamb et al (21st century skills) • Creativity and innovation • Critical thinking and problem solving (ebenso Uni Phoenix, CEEMET) • Flexibility and adaptability Skills Panorama most requested skills • Adapt to change • Create solutions to problems/develop strategy to solve problems • Think proactively • Think creatively • Adjust priorities/prioritise tasks Self-Management Skills Basic Skills (Numeracy, Literacy, Problem Solving) Lamb et al (21st century skills) • Information literacy • Media literacy Key competences for life long learning (New Skills Agenda • Mathematical competences • Basic c. in science • Basic c. in technology Kai Reinhardt • Mathematische und/oder Lese-/Schreibkompetenz CEEMET • Basic literacy, numeracy and digital skills should be available for everyone O*Net • Active learning • Active listening • Critical thinking • Learning strategies • Mathematics • Reading comprehension • Science • Speaking • Writing E-CF framework (version 3.0) • Risk management • Process improvement • Information Security Management
  17. 17. Analogous Skills Quality, risk and safety Social Skills PWC Social skills • friendliness/being respectful with others • Leadership • Integrity • Cooperation • Multi-cultural/global orientation Kai Reinhardt Kundenorientierung Teamfähigkeit • Work in a team • Cooperation • Work in a diverse environment • Solve conflicts • Human judgement • Networking skills O*Net Social skills: • Coordination • Instructing • Negotiation • Persuasion • Service orientation • Social perceptiveness WEF • Training and teaching others Management and Entre-preneurship Complex and creative thinking • Analytical thinking • Problem solving • Overarching departmental thinking • Constructive critical thinking • Make strategic decisions • Use present knowledge in new context • Anticipate trends using facts Self-Management Skills Basic Skills (Numeracy, Literacy, Problem Solving)
  18. 18. Calculations • move the skills debates forward by linking the current debates together (e.g. on polarization, upgrading and downgrading). • Discuss the job-based approach and the task-based approach • compare the gathered results with particular skills requirements from ecosystems/regions (WP 4) and frontrunner companies (WP 8).
  19. 19. Based on Schmid, CEDEFOP, World Congress on TVET, 13-16 May 2012 Scenario of Digital Skills Development New digital jobs and emerging occupations New digital jobs and emerging occupations Digitised unchanged occupationsDigitised unchanged occupations Digitising Existing Occupations New Skills High Low Up-skilling Low HighNumber of Jobs SkillsChange
  20. 20. Source: Hirsch-Kreinsen (Ed.), Akzeptanz von Industrie 4.0, 2019 Scenarios of changing skill demands
  21. 21. Innovation Triangle and its Interfaces: Technology – Human – Organisation Hirsch-Kreinsen et. al 2015, p. 7 Its the interface that matters!
  22. 22. Skills demands in numbers Macro- economics Company level Sectoral level Regional level National institutional configuration European institutional configuration Determinant factors on skill demand
  23. 23. Skill surveys OECD Eurofound WEF Cedefop Eurostat European Company Survey European Working Conditions Survey Survey of Adult Skills Future of Jobs survey Adult Education Survey (AES) Continuing Vocational Training Survey European skills and jobs survey (ESJ) Opinion survey on vocational education and training in Europe
  24. 24. Skills debate – empirical results EU from 1985 to 2014: Most EU countries either upgrading or polarisation: • Ireland, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland: more or less upgrading since the 1970s • Portugal: Some evidence of upgrading since 2011 • Germany: polarisation • United Kingdom: Polarisation since 1990s • Spain: polarisation since 2011 • Greece: polarisation trend • Italy: downgrading (job creation at the bottom from 2011-2015 ) Sources: Warhurst et al. 2017, Gasparri et al. 2017
  25. 25. Skills debate – empirical results Diversity across countries took place against a background of very similar broad trends of structural change • Deindustrialisation and dynamic service sector had similar polarising effects everywhere • Skill upgrading has occurred faster in more technological advanced firms and industries (cf. Berman et al. 2017: 15) • Manufacturing has mainly experienced a process of skills upgrading over the last 15 years. • In manufacturing, low skilled jobs are progressively automated in the process of technological change (cf. Gasparri et al. 2017: 15)
  26. 26. Next Steps • Defining potential data sources to quantify (most relevant) influence factors • Analysis of regional ecosystems and using skills related data for the work package “Future Skills” • Analysis of company strategies related data for the work package “Future Skills” • Desk research on employers´ requirements (demand side)
  27. 27. References • Abel, J., 2018: Kompetenzentwicklungsbedarf für die digitalisierte Arbeitswelt. Düsseldorf: Forschungsinstitut für gesellschaftliche Weiterentwicklung. • Acatech, 2016: Kompetenzentwicklungsstudie Industrie 4.0. Erste Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen. München. • Autor, D., Levy, F. & Murnane, R. J., 2003: The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Harvard. • Autor, D., 2015: Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of work-place innovation. In: Journal of Economic Perspectives. 3-30. • Berman, E. & S. Machin, 2000: Skill-Biased Technology Transfer around the World. In: Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 16, No. 3, Oxford: University Press, 12-22. • Cedefop, E. (2018). Skills forecast: trends and challenges to 2030 (Cedefop Reference Series No. 108). Luxemburg. Retrieved from http://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/4492 • CEEMET (Council of European Employers of the Metal, Engineering and Technology-based Industries), 2016: Digitalisation and the World of Work. Brussels: CEEMET. • Dachs, B., 2018: The impact of new technologies on the labour market and the social economy. Study – European Parliament, Science and Technology Options Assessment. • Fernandez-Macias, E. & J. Hurley, 2016: Routine-biased technical change and job polarization in Europe. In: Socio-Economic Review, 1-23. • Frey, C.B. & Osborne, M. A., 2013: The Future of Employment: How susceptible are Jobs to Computerization? University of Oxford. • Foster-McGregor, N., Nomaler, Ö., & Verspagen, B., 2019: Job automation risk, economic structure and trade: a European perspective. UNU-MERIT Working-Paper. • Gasparri, S. & A. Tassinari, 2017: Shaping industrial relations in a digitalizing services industry: Regional report for Southern Europe. Wien: Centre for Social Innovation. • Hirsch-Kreinsen (Ed.): Akzeptanz von Industrie 4.0, 2019 • Hirsch-Kreinsen, Hartmut, 2017: Digitalisierung industrieller Einfacharbeit. Entwicklungspfade und arbeitspolitische Konsequenzen. In: Arbeit 26, Nr. 1, S. 7-32. • Hirsch-Kreinsen, H., 2016: Digitization of industrial work: Development paths and prospects. In: J Labour Market Res, Springer: Berlin. • Pfeifer, S./ Lee, H./Zirnig, C./Suphan, A., 2016: Industrie 4.0 – Qualifizierung 2025. • PWC, 2018: Skills for Smart Industrial Specialisation and Digital Transformation – Interim Report for European Commission. • Reinhardt, K., Brandt, K., Gerlach, C., Glöde, A., Limbach, J., 2018: Studie zum einfluss der künstlichen Intelligenz auf die Kompetenzen in Corporate Finance. HTW: Berlin. • Schmid, CEDEFOP World Congress on TVET, 13-16 May 2012 • Staab, P./Prediger, L.J., 2019: Digitalisierung und Polarisierung. Eine Literaturstudie zu den Auswirkungen des digitalen Wandels auf Sozialstruktur und Betriebe. In: Hirsch-Kreinsen, H./Karacic, A. (Hrsg.): FGW-Studie. • WEF (2016): Future of Jobs. • Warhurst, C., Wright, S., Lyonette, C., 2017: Understanding and Measuring Job Quality. University of Warwick.
  28. 28. Thank you!

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