1. Some Observations on Trade Relations
between Austria and Turkey
Prof. Dr. Aykut Kibritçioğlu
Section for Economic Development and International Economics,
Department of Economics, Faculty of Political Sciences,
Ankara University, Turkey
http://kibritcioglu.com/iktisat/ & kibritcioglu@ankara.edu.tr
Panel Discussion chaired by Governor Ewald Nowotny (OeNB) on: “Turkish-Austrian
Economic Relations in a European and International Context”. Panelists: Murat Çetinkaya
(CBRT), Ayşe Sezgin (MFA), Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer (VIG), Aykut Kibritçioğlu (AU).
Österreichische Nationalbank, Kassensaal
Vienna, March 18, 2013
1 / 38

2. Turkey and Austria:
Two Different Economies with Weak Linkages?
Annual Inflation Rate (2010-12, HICP,
A Comparison Turkey
%)
according to Selected 9 Austria
Seven Indicators 6
External balance of goods and
Unemployment Rate (2012.11, %) 3
services / GDP (2010-12, %)
0
-3
-6
-9
Energy intensity of the economy
Real GDP Growth (2010-12, %)
(2010, kgoe per 10 euro)
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Annual Population Growth (2009-11,
(2009-10, in CO2 equivalent, 1990 =
%)
2.0)
Source: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu, March 5, 2013 2 / 38

3. Movement of Goods, Services & Factors among
Two Economies: Direct & Indirect Linkages
Trade in Goods
Trade in Services
Labor Movements
Capital Movements
Technology Transfer
TURKEY AUSTRIA
Trade in Goods Trade in Goods
Trade in Services Trade in Services
Labor Movements Labor Movements
Capital Movements Capital Movements
Technology Transfer Technology Transfer
Trade in Goods
Trade in Services Trade in Goods
Third
Labor Movements Trade in Services
Capital Movements Labor Movements
Technology Transfer Capital Movements
Technology Transfer
Countries
Quick Answer?
Joint economic activities in third countries? OECD-WTO: TiVA ?
3 / 38

4. Turkey: open to trade, but low “per capita trade”
Austria: member of the “trade nations club”?
160
United Arab Major Trade Partners
Emirates of Austria (2011):
140
EU27
Trade to GDP ratio (%, 2009-2011)
120 Iraq Switzerland
Switzerland
China
Korea
Austria USA
100
S. Arabia Russian Federation
Germany
80
Major Trade Partners
Israel
of Turkey (2011):
Iran UK
60
China France EU27
Russian Fed.
Turkey Russian Federation
40
China
EU27 USA USA
Brasil
20 Iraq
Iran
0 United Arab Emirates
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000
Trade per capita (US$, 2009-2011)
Source: WTO Statistics Database (SDB), http://stat.wto.org, September 2012 4 / 38

5. Merchandise Trade by Commodity
(mln. USD at current prices, 1980 & 2011)
Share in Share in Increase (%,
Indicator Flow Reporter Partner 1980 2011 World ... World ... from 1980 to
(%, 1980) (%, 2011) 2011)
Agricultural products Exports Austria World 2100 17356 0.7 1.0 726
Agricultural products Exports Turkey World 1881 14949 0.6 0.9 695
Agricultural products Exports World World 298800 1659524 100.0 100.0 455
Agricultural products Imports Austria World 2517 17797 0.8 1.0 607
Agricultural products Imports Turkey World 388 17574 0.1 1.0 4429
Agricultural products Imports World World 312217 1745208 100.0 100.0 459
Manufactures Exports Austria World 14531 145072 1.3 1.3 898
Manufactures Exports Turkey World 782 104210 0.1 0.9 13226
Manufactures Exports World World 1092378 11510949 100.0 100.0 954
Manufactures Imports Austria World 16849 136421 1.5 1.1 710
Manufactures Imports Turkey World 3265 142034 0.3 1.2 4250
Manufactures Imports World World 1110747 11927185 100.0 100.0 974
 Both Turkey and Austria increased their exports & imports to/from the rest of
the world between 1980 and 2011, in terms of trade values.
 Austrian shares in world exports & imports of agricultural products increased,
while its share in imports of manufacturing goods decreased slightly.
 Turkey’s shares in global exports & imports of both, agricultural and
manufacturing commodities increased significantly.
Source: WTO Statistics Database (SDB), http://stat.wto.org, September 2012 5 / 38

6. Turkey & Austria within the Network of
Global Trade in Goods (%, World = 100, 1980 & 2011)
1980 (W=>W: 100) Importing Countries
Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total)
Turkey 0.00 0.15 0.15
Countries
Exporting
Austria 0.01 0.91 0.91
Rest of the World 0.14 0.89 97.91 98.94
World (Total) 0.15 0.89 98.96 100.00
2011 (W=>W: 100) Importing Countries
Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total)
Turkey 0.01 0.75 0.76
Countries
Exporting
Austria 0.01 0.95 0.96
Rest of the World 1.16 1.00 96.11 98.28
World (Total) 1.17 1.01 97.82 100.00
 Both countries’ shares in global trade in goods are, and were, limited, but
Turkey increased her world share remarkably within the last three decades.
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 6 / 38

7. Turkey & Austria within the Network of
Global Trade in Goods (TR X = 1.0, 1980 & 2011)
1980 (TR=>AU: 1.0) Importing Countries
Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total)
Turkey 1.0 53 54
Countries
Exporting
Austria 1.8 323 325
Rest of the World 50 316 34902 35269
World (Total) 52 317 35278 35648
2011 (TR=>AU: 1.0) Importing Countries
Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total)
Turkey 1.0 127 128
Countries
Exporting
Austria 1.7 161 163
Rest of the World 197 169 16277 16644
World (Total) 199 170 16566 16935
 However, the relative global importance of trade between Turkey and
Austria has not increased significantly.
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 7 / 38

8. Country Composition of Austrian Exports
(%, 1960-2011)
(Reporter: Austria, Exports, %)
100%
Turkey
Rest of the World
90%
Middle East & North Africa
80% Russian Federation
China
70% Switzerland
USA
60%
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
50%
Germany
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 190 000
180 000
170 000
160 000
150 000
140 000
130 000
Turkey
Rest of the Wor ld
Midd le Eas t & North Africa
Russian Federa tion
Chin a
Swit zerlan d
1960
1964
1966
1968
1970
1974
1978
1980
1982
1984
1988
1992
1994
1996
1998
2002
2004
2006
2008
1962
1972
1976
1986
1990
2000
2010
120 000 USA
110 000 EU12 (new mem bers)
100 000 EU13 (old m embers)
90 000 Germ any
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
1962
1970
1980
1988
1992
2000
2006
2010
1960
1964
1966
1968
1972
1974
1976
1978
1982
1984
1986
1990
1994
1996
1998
2002
2004
2008
 Turkey is not a major target country for Austrian exporters.
 Their destination is mainly (old, and now also new) EU countries.
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 8 / 38

9. Country Composition of Austrian Imports
(Reporter: Austria, Imports, %)
(%, 1960-2011)
100%
Turkey
90% Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
80% Russian Federation
China
70% Switzerland
USA
60%
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
50%
Germany
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 190 00 0
180 00 0
170 00 0
160 00 0
150 00 0
140 00 0
Turkey
Re st of the World
Middle Eas t & North Af rica
Russian Fe deration
China
130 00 0 Sw itzerla nd
120 00 0 USA
1966
1970
1972
1976
1978
1980
1984
1992
1998
2000
2004
2006
2008
2010
1960
1962
1964
1968
1974
1982
1986
1988
1990
1994
1996
2002
110 00 0 EU12 (new m embers)
100 00 0 EU13 (old me mbe rs)
90 00 0 Ge rm any
80 00 0
70 00 0
60 00 0
50 00 0
40 00 0
30 00 0
20 00 0
10 00 0
0
1 96 0
1 99 6
19 62
196 4
19 66
196 8
1 970
19 72
1 974
19 76
1 978
19 80
198 2
19 84
198 6
1 988
199 0
1 992
19 94
19 98
2 000
20 02
200 4
2 006
20 08
2 010
 Turkey is not a major source country for imported goods to Austria.
 Germany & EU13 are the main exporters to Austria. After 1994, the new
EU countries are gaining on importance in Austrian imports.
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 9 / 38

10. Country Composition of Turkish Exports
(%, 1960-2011)
(Reporter: Turkey, Exports, %)
100%
Austria
90% Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
80% Russian Federation
China
70% Switzerland
USA
60%
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
50%
Germany
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
140 000
Austria
130 000
Rest of the W orld
120 000 Midd e East & North Africa
l
110 000 Russian Federation
China
100 000
Sw itzer land
90 000 USA
80 000 EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old mem bers)
70 000
Germany
60 000
1966
1970
1972
1976
1978
1980
1984
1992
1998
2000
2004
2006
2008
2010
1960
1962
1964
1968
1974
1982
1986
1988
1990
1994
1996
2002
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1990
2008
2010
1984
1986
1988
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
 Austria is not a major target country for Turkish exporters.
 Their destination is mainly EU (old, and now new) countries.
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 10 / 38

11. Changes in Country Composition of
Turkish Exports (%, 1948-2011)
100 0 Country Shares in
Turkish Exports
(1948-2011)
(Reporter: Turkey)
Rest Middle East
of the & North
World 50 Africa
50 1957
2011
1950
1987 1982
0 100
100 50 EU27 Countries 0
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 11 / 38

12. Country Composition of Turkish Imports
(%, 1960-2011)
(Reporter: Turkey, Imports, %)
100%
Austria
90% Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
80% Russian Federation
China
70% Switzerland
USA
60%
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
50%
Germany
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
240 000
230 000 Austria
220 000 Rest of the W orld
210 000
Midd e East & North Africa
l
200 000
190 000 Russian Federation
180 000 China
170 000
Sw itzer land
160 000
150 000 USA
140 000 EU12 (new members)
130 000
EU13 (old mem bers)
120 000
110 000 Germany
100 000
1966
1970
1972
1976
1978
1980
1984
1992
1998
2000
2004
2006
2008
2010
1960
1962
1964
1968
1974
1982
1986
1988
1990
1994
1996
2002
90 000
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1990
2008
2010
1984
1986
1988
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
 Austria is not a major source country for Turkey’s
imported goods from abroad. Again, the EU27 ist the …
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 12 / 38

13. Changes in Country Composition of
Turkish Imports (%, 1948-2011)
100 Country Shares in
0
Turkish Imports
(1948-2011)
(Reporter: Turkey)
Rest
of the Middle East
World 1957
50 & North
50 2011
Africa
1989
1975 1982
1952
0 100
100 50 EU27 Countries 0
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 13 / 38