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Aviation statistical analysis


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This article address the uses of statistical distributions in Aviation Industry - in many aera

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Aviation statistical analysis

  1. 1. study 15 Mohammed Salem Awad PhD Candidature Aviation Management - IndiaSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS INAVIATION INDUSTRYI n the recent era of technology; the outcomes of decision making usually based on figures and statistics, which is definitely reflects the statistical pattern of the data and sampling procedures, either its time related or event related. This defines clearly the importance of statistics as a science and their trails and experiments in practice. And as it well known that “To Fit Data Is An Art” so accordinglythese techniques are used as a science implementing in all fields of life’s, and we have to recognize what is behinds numbers, how tocreate a sampling distributions, and how its related to the practice, especially phenomena of the art of fits of distribution with practicaldata which usually approved by a statistical experiments or tests as Chi-Square or Kolomograph test, and consequently due thehuge numbers of these researches and experiments by mathematicians and scientists a well defined patterned and distributions areassigned and adapted in fields of real life as technical, educational, philological, and social, devoting our concern to the statisticalpatterned of the technical and practical fields in the airline industry and how to use them in practice to take the right decisions.8 CAMA Magazine | issue 13 | December, 2011
  2. 2. 16 studyStatistical Science Fuel ConsumptionBefore proceed further in statistical analysis, we haveto define some basic terms in the statistical science,accordingly the statistics have two main functions: I- Data Descriptive II- Developing a statistical inference to achieve a certain decision. So there are a Descriptive Statisticsand Inferential Statistics.Populations and SamplingThese two terms are the main issues in statisticsespecially for Inferential Statistics, so the Populationscan be defined as the whole community of the concernedfield of the study for the researchers, while samplingis a part of it that reflects the main characteristics ofsociety, used instead of the whole society in experiments T.B.O. Analysis Modeland tests for economical and practical reasons. Total CostTypes of SamplingThe sampling type is identify according to the samplingtechnique and procedure used to extract the data as Cost in US$ A- Simple Random Sample B- Stratified Sample C- Systematic Sample B Cost of A Cost of Spare Engines Aircraft onParameter and Estimators GroundAny distribution has its own characteristics as Mean,Variance ...ets. Also data sampling has its owncharacteristics, define by parameters while for those Number of Spare Enginesrelated to random sampling, they are called estimators, Product Life Modelwhich are reflects the estimating values of the randomsampling and commonly is unknown values. Bath-Tub CurveVariablesIt is a set of characters that describe event that Chance Failure Failure Raterelated for the study in a various conditionsas age, sex, color, weight and length.Frequency Distributions Initial Failure Wear out FailureGenerally, the quantitative data can be classified andsummarized by one of the statistical descriptive methodsthat used for displayed, organized and tabulated. So Cycles / Hoursfrequency distribution is the most practical method to use. And it can be a group/ set of organized data, Spill Analysisthat arranged/ ranked in ascending or descending SAH - DXBorder, that reflecting the repeated quantitive Spilleffect of data, so this repeated distribution can be Demand Factor (0)represented by chart of frequency distribution. Load Factor (L) Load & Demand Factor There are many statistical curves that may represent Spilled Passengersby frequency distributions from the whole society. And itis an important issue to recognize these characteristics ofsampling for the inferential statistic and accordingly we haveto study the statistical distributions and how it is works. To study the statistical distributions for relatedcommunities, that will be hard and may be impossiblefor to the huge population of the community data basesand the inability to have all units’ data. And consequently Capacity Seatmathematicians address this issue in their researches, Overbooking Policydeveloped and adapted a specific formula for certain 1400situation that may describe the best behavior for datain practice. These outcomes sampling are known 1200as theoretical distributions, and can be classified as 1000Continues Distribution and Discrete Distributions e.g.: Sector SAH-DXB Period: Oct 2010 Cost in USD 800 1- Normal Distribution 2- Binomial Distribution 600 3- Ch-Square Distribution 400 No Show Cost 4- Exponential Distribution Denied Boarding Cost Total Cost 5- Weibull Distribution 200 6- Poisson Distribution 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 7- Gamma Distribution Number of Reservations (Overbooking) 8- Beta Distribution Aircraft Capacity OVERBOOKINGCAMA Magazine | issue 13 | December, 2011
  3. 3. study 161- Normal DistributionIt is the main distribution in practice and it ischaracterize by two important factors, which areMean and Variance and mostly use in qualitycontrols, failure control and it is a continuous one. One of the main challenges2- Exponential Distributions in Airline Industry is fuelIt is also a continuous distribution, that reflect thestable random behavior stage in practice (Chance cost, and consequently fuelStage) and it is describe by one or two factors. consumption, as it represents3- Weibull Distribution about 35% of total cost ofIt has many practical situations due its basic parametersthat describe the distribution; they are Scale, Shape, and airline company, so mostLocation parameters it is widely use in failure diagnosticsituations. It is also a continuous distribution. of airline companies act4- Poisson Distribution – Discrete on developing of quality5- Gamma Distribution– Discrete6- Beta Distribution – Discrete control monitoring program,7- Binomial Distribution – Discrete evaluating the patterned ofImplementation in Aviation Industry: natural of fuel consumption by 1- Fuel Consumption 2- Engineering and Maintenance using Normal distribution. 3- Purchasing and Stores 4- Commercial and Planning 5- Training and Human Resources 6- Monte Carlo Simulation side, to create an active planning, the company should set-up1- Fuel Consumption targets based on the historical data, by using forecastingOne of the main challenges in Airline Industry is fuel cost, techniques usually time series analysis (ARMA-Model) alsoand consequently fuel consumption, as it represents about trends analysis. While in the commercial side, the company35% of total cost of airline company, so any saving in this try to achieved these targets by implementing optimizationpercentage will reflect a huge saving in the company budget, program that driven by statistical concept as; defining anand usually most of airline companies act on developing of optimum over booking policy by using Poisson distributionquality control monitoring program, evaluating the patterned and Spill analysis for controlling number of passengers byof natural of fuel consumption by using Normal distribution, by using Normal distribution to define the right aircraft to use.defining the acceptable limits of fuel used and any deviationbeyond that will review thoroughly to define its causes. 5- Training and Human Resources Evaluation of performance is the main task of this division,2- Engineering and Maintenance where the future plans are set-up, and the training needsThis is one of the airline divisions that cannot be adapted by are addressed, based on the feedback of questionnairecost reduction strategy, as is basically linked to the Reliability that filled by employee, which basically filtered by normaland Safety factors, and accordingly airline should implement distribution to study most the future needs of the company.the Reliability and maintenance programs which actually i.e by display the norms and addressing the deviations.represents most of the statistical tools and techniques, soin the reliability program for removal and spare parts we 6- Monte Carlo Simulationuse Normal distribution, and for evaluation Time Between In the simulation fields there is a saying “when a formulaOverhaul (T.B.O), we use Exponential distribution, for fails we have to simulate” so simulation is an advancestructure program we use Gamma distribution and for and recent technique in decision making, it is based onestimating and calculating estimating time of maintenance creating a random number that simulate and have theactivity program by using PERT and CPM we use Beta similar characteristics of the actual set of data either it isdistribution and finally for failures diagnostics and selecting time or event related, and consequently reflected a certainthe right maintenance program we use Wiebull distribution. distribution by high random numbers in a well specified design program that run at high number of trails to create3- Purchasing and Stores stable probability for the case study. Usually simulationThis is also one of main divisions in the airline companies, is depends on programs and computers and give a moreas it the main channel for expenditure, so are we purchase accurate result which is more closely for practice.the right product in right time, or we purchase justto lose the liquidity, the cash flow of the company onthings are not actually needed or purchased based on Summary:a wrong decision. So a new approach are developed No doubt that statistical science plays a major role in practice,for ordering the right quantities and organize the way of also in aviation industry, actually it is the essential part ofpurchasing, handling and storing in aviation as Spare Reliability science but in a different terms, it is consider asProvisioning Policy using Poisson distribution, Material part of mathematics, but the mean issue is it implementationsForecasting using Gamma distribution, and number of and impacts in the aviation industry, so experience showsengine in stocks using Poisson distribution also. that airlines utilize the statistical techniques to get the best results that position the airline in the right track and earn4- Commercial and Planning a reasonable profits, in a recessions time which is veryNo contention that the commercial division is the active heart hard to achieved by a classical methods, this definitelyof the airline, as with out a good and succeed marketing plans, will help in developing of a more effective reports thatthe company cannot be achieved their goals and targets, convince the decision maker and the investor of the airlinesthese targets are developed within integrated clear strategic companies and explore the situations in healthy way.■plan that reflect the vision of the company. So in the planning CAMA Magazine | issue 13 | December, 2011