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Understanding Markets

Understanding Markets

  1. 1. 1 Twitter - @niteen_india Niteen S Dharmawat Understanding markets (Everything that you wanted to know about) 16th Sep 2022 Co-Founder, Aurum Capital Website: https://aurumcapital.in Twitter: @CapitalAurum / @niteen_india Email: info@aurumcapital.in
  2. 2. 2 Twitter - @niteen_india IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information herein is used as per the available sources of bseindia.com/nseindia.com/brokers websites, company’s annual reports & other public/private database sources. Aurum Capital is not responsible for any discrepancy in the data. Investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for necessary explanation of its contents. Future estimates mentioned herein are personal opinions & views of the analyst. Analyst Name – Niteen S Dharmawat. For queries / grievances – support@aurumcapital.in. SEBI registration No: INH000008118 Readers/attendees/viewers are responsible for all outcomes arising of buying / selling particular scrip/ scrips mentioned here in. This presentation indicates opinion of the author to understand the case studies and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Aurum Capital & its representatives may have vested interest in the mentioned securities at the time of this publication, and its partners / company may have positions / financial interest in the securities discussed. Aurum Capital, or its associates are not paid or compensated at any point of time, in last 12 months by any way from the companies mentioned in the report. Aurum Capital, or its representatives do not have more than 1% of the company’s total shareholding. Ownership of the stock: may own/may have recommended to clients. Served as a director / employee of mentioned companies in report: No. Any material conflict of interest at the time of publishing report: No The views expressed in this post accurately reflect the author’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensations, if any was, is or will be, directly indirectly, related to specific recommendation or views expressed in the report.
  3. 3. 3 Twitter - @niteen_india Aurum Capital is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No: INH000008118) and Investment Advisory (SEBI Registration No: INA000011024) services company. Started by Jiten Parmar and Niteen S Dharmawat, who together have more than 4 decades of experience investing in equities and guiding and mentoring fellow investors. This rich industry background helps us understand companies, complexities of business and tipping points that make or break a company. Our approach is not limited to just number crunching but going beyond. We focus on the business, strategic direction, the competitive landscape, the governance process, the background of the promoters, turnarounds, to name a few. Often these are more critical items than just numbers. Jiten and Niteen have successfully waded through multiple bear and bull market cycles.
  4. 4. 4 Twitter - @niteen_india Understanding Markets 4 Agenda…  Pessimism v/s Optimism  Wealth Creation Formula  Case study: Which stock would you buy A or B  Actors change, pattern repeats: Year 1720, 2000 and 2021  Large companies safe?  Portfolio construction  Manage behavioural aspects  Analyse stocks quick and fast  Case studies  Caselets
  5. 5. Twitter - @niteen_india Buying the Pessimism v/s Optimism 5 Misconceptions 1) Bear markets are bad 2) Bull markets are all rosy
  6. 6. Twitter - @niteen_india The Wealth Creation Formula 6 Right Focus – Right results If a horse covers 10kms in 1 hour and speed is maintained then how much distance will it cover in 2nd hour and 3rd hour? Add on… Return charts in investment 10X, 20X, 30X… Question to answer Wealth Creation Formula What investors focus on What investors ignore
  7. 7. Twitter - @niteen_india Which stock would you buy for 5 years? 7 Stock B Rs 9785 Stock A Rs 27 Please note that this is not a recommendation of any sort. This is just a case study for education purpose.
  8. 8. Twitter - @niteen_india Price v/s Value? 8 Penny stock mentality: How much it will fall from here? Do you know the name of this stock and current price? Bad Hint: Service industry, tyres and fuel important for this.  Rs 27 in Feb2012 Rs 7 in Aug 2012 Ever high Rs 290 in Dec 2007 Rs 9785 in Feb2012 Rs 11000 in Aug 2012 Expensive stock mentality: How much it can go up from here? Do you know the name of this stock? Hint: Tyres manufacturer and crude is a critical item.  Ever high Rs 93,887 in Sep 2022 Stock B Stock A Now 0 Now 92,500+ Source: Google graph, screener/ace database Please note that these are not recommendations of any sort. This is just a case study for education purpose.
  9. 9. Twitter - @niteen_india 9 How many of you agree: Investment in large companies is safe? Raise your hands
  10. 10. Twitter - @niteen_india 10 Company Value lost from peak 99.6% from 2007 levels 98% from year 2014 levels 92% from 2015 levels 85% from 2018 levels 94% from 2000 levels 88% from 2008 levels Scandal. Merged with Tech Mahindra in 2009. Massive wealth erosion Large companies means lower risk: Not always Once NIFTY 50 Constituents Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIFTY_50, Aurum Capital Research Please note: this is not an opinion/ recommendations of any sort on any of the stocks. This is just for education purpose. Company Value lost from peak 96% from 2018 levels 94% from 2019 levels 99.4% from 2008 levels 97.8% from 2017 levels 85% from 2010 levels 81% from 2017 levels 90% from 2018 levels
  11. 11. Twitter - @niteen_india 11 Company Value lost from peak 82% from 2007 levels 65% from 2015 levels 97.6% from 2008 levels 67% from 2014 levels 93% from 2008 levels 68% from 2018 levels Merged with Daiichi Sankyo, later on sold to Sun Pharma. Corp governance issues reported Large companies means lower risk: Not always Once NIFTY 50 Constituents Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIFTY_50, Aurum Capital Research Please note: this is not an opinion/ recommendations of any sort on any of the stocks. This is just for education purpose. Company Value lost from peak 97% from 2008 levels 88% from 2014 levels 67% from 2008 levels 99.8% from 2008 levels 93.5% from 2008 levels 79.7% from 2014 levels
  12. 12. Twitter - @niteen_india 12 Pre-Covid Year 2020: Nothing changes Investors lost 34K+ Crores in 2 years in these 15 stocks… Company Name Market cap declined by Cox & Kings 99% Talwalkars Healthclubs 99% Reliance Home Finance 97% Reliance Capital 96% Sintex Plastics Technology 96% Mcleod Russel India 96% Kridhan Infra 96% Sical Logistics 95% Dewan Housing Finance 94% Sintex Industries 93% Jet Airways 90% Jain Irrigation Systems 89% Reliance Communications 89% Reliance Power 86% PC Jeweller 86% Total 34,435 Crore Majority of these end up in retail portfolio Please note: this is not an opinion/ recommendations of any sort on any of the stocks. This is just for education purpose. Source: ACE Database The market value decline is taken from 52 week high to price as on 13 Feb 2020 Many of these were large companies
  13. 13. Twitter - @niteen_india Year 1720: South Sea Company Stock 13 Rush for the Gold… This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: Google, publically available data Sir Isaac Newton lost fortunes and went almost bankrupt to speculation in The South Sea Company stock. He is also quoted as stating: "I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men”.
  14. 14. Twitter - @niteen_india 14 Year 2000: A repetitive grim reality Date Price Shares 2-Feb-00 1,549 119,642 3-Feb-00 1,673 68,309 4-Feb-00 1,807 82,375 7-Feb-00 1,855 3,126,844 8-Feb-00 1,877 2,358,212 9-Feb-00 1,817 2,394,038 10-Feb-00 1,848 1,788,398 11-Feb-00 1,842 1,570,270 14-Feb-00 1,875 1,336,249 15-Feb-00 1,823 975,591 16-Feb-00 1,791 808,272 17-Feb-00 1,841 843,279 18-Feb-00 1,948 2,350,699 21-Feb-00 2,104 528,893 22-Feb-00 2,272 1,301,678 23-Feb-00 2,090 1,424,987 24-Feb-00 1,952 1,454,274 25-Feb-00 1,810 1,469,617 28-Feb-00 1,770 879,915 29-Feb-00 1,628 2,157,518 1-Mar-00 1,759 1,030,278 In year 2000 Low of 200 Rs High of 2000+ Time V/S Return V/S Valuations Rs 0.28 This is a case study and not a recommendation
  15. 15. Twitter - @niteen_india Year 2021: NASDAQ 15 Rush for the Gold post Covid… This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: Google, publically available data
  16. 16. Twitter - @niteen_india NASDAQ 16 Rush for the Gold post Covid… This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: Google, publically available data
  17. 17. Twitter - @niteen_india NASDAQ 17 Rush for the Gold post Covid… Source: Google, publically available data This is a case study and not a recommendation
  18. 18. Twitter - @niteen_india International Funds & Equity Funds with overseas investments… from India 18 Rush for the Gold post Covid… Source: - Returns, publically available data This is a case study and not a recommendation • Out of total 89 fund analyzed • 56 launched between 1998-2020 (67%) • 33 Launched between 2020-2022(33%) • Out of 33 funds launched between 2020-2022 • 21 are negative • 11 are positive • Out 11 positive • Only 1 has beaten the benchmark index in the last one year • During this period, we have got several investor enquires asking if we can provide research on the NASDAQ listed company. • In fact one investor showed us how to open account and trade in the US market. • None asked post carnage
  19. 19. Twitter - @niteen_india Importance of human behaviour 19 To win over Algo trades there is only one way: Control your emotions.  Your biggest enemy, when investing, is within yourself.  Success will only come when you learn to control your emotions.  Apparently, one of the easiest ones but the most difficult to follow. This is a case study and not a recommendation
  20. 20. Twitter - @niteen_india 20 Manage behavioural aspects
  21. 21. Twitter - @niteen_india 21 Before we understand how to save ourselves from the potential landmines…  Most important: prepare a list of what not to do?  Make an Excel sheet (Detailed PPT/Word doc even better)  Write the name of the script, buy price  Write very briefly the reasons for investment: it could be your research finding or someone recommended you to buy  Also, your expectations from the investment Commitment
  22. 22. Twitter - @niteen_india 22 Classify your portfolio… My way… You may evolve yours  Portfolio A: 70-90% funds  High conviction  Long term: 3-5 Years  Not more than 5-15 stocks  Portfolio B: 10-20% funds  Still unsure about Long term  Want few more quarters, ratify investment thesis  Medium term: 1-3 years, move to A else drop  Portfolio C: 0-10%  Tips /Respect quota  Time duration: 1min-1year  If develops conviction based on research move to B Discipline is the key
  23. 23. Twitter - @niteen_india 23 Analyse stocks quick and fast (Critical parameters so safeguard)
  24. 24. Twitter - @niteen_india 24 High Debt companies (Sustainability is the key, else failure is guaranteed) How to avoid potential landmines Majority of the failures are because of one/all of these Poor operating cash flows (Failure guaranteed) Consistent Equity dilution Poor Skin in the game of the promoter(sometimes false alarm too) Fancy/darling sector: Extremely high valuations of the company/sector (in majority of the cases – time/value or both corrections) When you see that the story is all-round, least you can do is “do not buy optimism”
  25. 25. Twitter - @niteen_india How to quickly analyze a company 25 Annual Reports • Cash flow statement (most important, least understood) • Balance-sheet • P&L
  26. 26. Twitter - @niteen_india 26 Cash flow concept
  27. 27. Twitter - @niteen_india 27 A Scooter Manufacturer… A quick example Cash Credit Cash recorded in OCF P&L Sales, Profits recognized Cash Received Yes Bad debts No Warning sign: Check Receivables…
  28. 28. Twitter - @niteen_india 28 Exceptions - Companies that sells more and more cash through lending - e.g.: Banks and Financial Institutions Other helpful parameters along with OCF - Equity dilution? - Promoters unpledged holding in the company - Trend in receivables - Interest paid v/s net profit (a ratio of more than 0.4/0.5 is risk) - Investing and financial cash flows Exceptions
  29. 29. Twitter - @niteen_india 29 - OCF = Net Income + Depreciation & Amortization – Working Capital Investment - Positive OCF by decreasing inventory/receivables (non cash working capital) or increasing in payables - Decrease in inventory, receivable numbers - liquidating items like inventory, receivables (you are supposed to get this from your customers and sell it off in the market at some discount) or - Increase in payables numbers - Supposed to pay to suppliers but don’t pay at the time of preparing the Cash flow - These are not sustainable items Can OCF be manipulated? Caution: if you notice marked changes in these numbers from last year’s numbers
  30. 30. Twitter - @niteen_india 30 What are the free/paid resources for quick screening  bseindia.com / nseindia.com  Websites/app (Free/paid)  Screener.in  StockEdge  tijorifinance.com  trendlyne.com  moneycontrol.com  researchbytes.com  reportjunction.com  stockflare.com  Paid database  CapitalMarket/ACE  Brokers websites for financial data  Annual reports (most important)
  31. 31. Twitter - @niteen_india Cashflow 31 1) CFO v/s NI 2) WC changes 3) Taxes Paid 4) CFI trend 5) CFF trend Screener.in Draw top 5 conclusions in 60 seconds and move on
  32. 32. Twitter - @niteen_india Balance Sheet 32 1) Equity Dilution 2) Share capital (equity / preferential) 3) Borrowings (ST/LT) v/s interest component from last quarter Screener.in Draw top 3 conclusions in 60 seconds and move on
  33. 33. Twitter - @niteen_india P&L 33 1) Sales trend 2) Operating performance 3) Interest component 4) Depreciation 5) Tax paid 6) Dividend payout ratio Screener.in Draw top 6 conclusions in 120 seconds and move on
  34. 34. Twitter - @niteen_india Quarterly results 34 1) Sales trend 2) Operating performance 3) Interest component 4) Depreciation 5) Tax paid Screener.in Draw top 5 conclusions in 60 seconds and move on
  35. 35. Twitter - @niteen_india 35 Case studies
  36. 36. Twitter - @niteen_india 36 A vertically integrated multinational medical technology Group From Rs140 to now Rs3 Rs 244 on Jan 4 2008* As on Dec 2007 • FII holding 25.49% • MFs holding 4.3% Rs 221 on Feb 17 2012* As on Dec 2012 • FII holding 37.34% • MFs holding 0.07% • Strong FII holding • Increased holding by 12% in 5 years (equity dilution) Year Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Share Capital 94 161 183 186 242 Source: Google graph, screener/ace database This is a case study and not a recommendation
  37. 37. Twitter - @niteen_india 37 A Small Cap company operating in Gas & Petroleum sector TIPs take you to PITs: after reading Google news/Forums • Someone I know bought few lac shares, despite my warning, believing Google news with a target price of 100 in next few years. 2006 2007 2008 2009 CFO 0.12 1.12 -27.87 112.69 2006 2007 2008 2009 Capital 5.03 5.03 794.00 794.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sales 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.03 • Corporate Insolvency filed • SEBI barred 8 entities from securities market for 10 years in the case of manipulations related to GDR issuance, while two have been asked to return 'unlawful gains' of $92 million Source: Google graph, screener/ace database This is a case study and not a recommendation
  38. 38. Twitter - @niteen_india 38 A specialist across the varieties of cables Parameter Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015 Mar 2016 Net Profit 10.59 15.22 23.81 57.91 100.09 159.99 163.48 CFO 4.81 4.47 14.81 31.12 20.89 -46.69 21.57 Signal  Fast growing cables manufacturer  High double digit growth in Profit and Sales  High 20s ROE and ROCE numbers From Rs235 to Rs29 in one month • Promoter holding 41.19% • 100% pledged  From Rs6 to now Rs235 in four year From 235 to now Rs0 Source: Google graph, screener/ace database This is a case study and not a recommendation
  39. 39. Twitter - @niteen_india 39 Manufacturing and exporting Public Address Systems - Woofers, Amplifiers, Computer Speakers, Personal Speaker System, Headphones, and Earphones • Some prominent investors in IPO/Post-IPO • Widely discussed/pushed in SM/WhatsApp groups • Promoter absconding now • Debt taken from Banks/FIs: NPA Listing At: NSE SME Issue Open: May 9, 2018 - May 11, 2018 Issue Price: ₹140 Per Equity Share Issue Size: 46.66 Cr CMP: Trading banned • The Company also trading in the fabric??? • Strong presence in African Continent, UAE, South America, Singapore, Dubai, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nepal • Products sold in 56 countries across 6 continents • In India, 17 States, dealer network of more than 240 • Opened showrooms in Dehradun, Saharanpur, Chomu, Guwahati, Jeopur, Patna, Raxaul, Bhagalpur, Calicut and Hyderabad which are run by dealers. Source: company website, publically available info Board of directors Source: Google graph, screener/ace database, company website This is a case study and not a recommendation
  40. 40. Twitter - @niteen_india 40 Education and training company based in Chennai  ‘Darling’ of punters  Several stories around the business model  FII holding close to 28%  Some prominent names on the board could also not save it  CBI caught one of the directors of the company in a bribery case Parameter Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Net Profit 67.64 45.45 22.08 13.8 CFO 16.01 25.13 -8.98 13.31 Signal In INR Crs Poor shareholding pattern From Rs350 to now Rs0 The company has gone into liquidation in 2016 Source: Google graph, screener/ace database This is a case study and not a recommendation
  41. 41. Twitter - @niteen_india 41 Education sector proved to be a perfect educator for investors… Source: Google graph, screener/ace database Part of a large corporate Claim to be tech savvy Now a part of a large corporate • Contingent liabilities of Rs.524.89 Cr. • Promoters have pledged 82.74% of their holding Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 CFO 26.99 16.69 17.02 32.34 -79.28 -65.4 -44.17 PAT 18.05 21.03 29.72 32.35 5.84 -131.83 9.12 Signal • Poor cashflow • Pledging by the promoter This is a case study and not a recommendation
  42. 42. Twitter - @niteen_india 42 Education sector proved to be a perfect educator for investors… Source: Google graph, screener Marquee funds got educated From Rs500 to Rs14 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 CFO 6 -14 35 59 -14 PAT 22 33 44 61 7 Signal • 200Cr revenue in 2015 and 100Crs debt, Story led growth • Growth funded through debt, no cash flow backing • Poor shareholding (less than 30%), pledged too • Whose who holding 46%+: Matrix Partners, FC VI India Venture, Bajaj Holdings and Investment, Elara India,Aditya Birla Pvt Equity, ON Mauritius, Reliance Capital, Macquarie Fund, Mondrian Emerging Markets, SwedBank Robur Global, Credit Suisse, Marwadi Shares, Macquarie, Ontario Pension • Part of that highly visible Modern Education club of 4 • Rest 3 are defunct From 1101 to 1 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 CFO 13 13 52 191 224 284 PAT 14 29 71 133 276 337 Signal • Poor shareholding pattern • Story led growth • Growth funded through debt, no cash flow backing This is a case study and not a recommendation
  43. 43. Twitter - @niteen_india 43 One more…Education case study 1/4 Source: screener Complex case… but still can figure it out 2012 Shareholding a This is a case study and not a recommendation
  44. 44. Twitter - @niteen_india 44 One more…Education case study 2/4 Source: screener Complex case… but still can figure it out 2014 Shareholding a This is a case study and not a recommendation
  45. 45. Twitter - @niteen_india 45 One more…Education case study 3/4 Source: screener Complex case… but still can figure it out Stock Price • 2007: 500 • 2012: 350 • 2014: 11 • Now: 0 This is a case study and not a recommendation
  46. 46. Twitter - @niteen_india 46 One more…Education case study 4/4 Source: screener FIIs + MFs+ Body corp holding more than 46% in 2012 got educated From Rs500 to Rs0 Complex case… but still can figure it out Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 CFO 2 -3 25 76 106 136 PAT 5 12 45 81 112 124 Signal • Operating Cashflow was not that bad. • Devil was in detail, look at: • Investing cash flow/Share capital/Borrowing numbers/ Receivables/ Interest paid CF/BS/P&L Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Remarks CFI -9 -44 -383 -105 -304 -567 CFI Share Capital 4 14 17 17 20 22 Equity dilution Borrowings 1 0 168 226 287 795 4.73X in 3 years Trade receivables 9 26 71 176 191 245 3.45X in 3 years Sales 21.00 69.70 200 347 418 516 2.58X in 3 years Interest 0.02 1.5 2 13 31 58 Interest cost capitalized Consistent equity dilution Borrowings and Trade receivables growing faster than Sale CFI numbers suggest that investments but where? This is a case study and not a recommendation
  47. 47. Twitter - @niteen_india 47 Buying the Pessimism (If executed well could lead to disproportionate returns )
  48. 48. Twitter - @niteen_india What is pessimism? 48 Background… A tendency to see the worst aspect of things or believe that the worst will happen. Examples  End of markets when corrections happen  End of sectors when darling sector collapse  End of a company when events happen • Evaluate each case independently/ rationally
  49. 49. Twitter - @niteen_india What is pessimism? 49 The news headline will look like this… 23 Mar 2020
  50. 50. Twitter - @niteen_india What is pessimism? 50 The news headline will look like this… 23 Mar 2020 Non-market & you get to read this
  51. 51. Twitter - @niteen_india What is pessimism? 51 The news headline will look like this… 23 Mar 2020 Hugo Erken, Senior economist & country analyst for North America, Mexico and India, Robobank FinTwit account with 400k+ followers asking to stop short selling: 18 Mar 2020
  52. 52. Twitter - @niteen_india Correction types and impact 52 Meme stock… Time correction 5 Year stagnation
  53. 53. Twitter - @niteen_india Time Correction 53 Meme stock… but prior 10 years 10 years: 6.6X CAGR: 21% in 10 years + Dividends 5 years stagnation 5 year: 4X+Dividend
  54. 54. Twitter - @niteen_india Price corrections: permanently dead 54 Infra stocks… post 2009 carnage Punj Lloyd, JP Associates, GMR, IVRCL: Lost 95-98% (1 Lac became 2k or 5k) It's only when the tide goes out you know who's swimming naked: Warren Buffett
  55. 55. Twitter - @niteen_india Winner-Takes-All 55 Infra stocks… post 2009 carnage Price correction by 50%+ Price correction by almost 50%+
  56. 56. Twitter - @niteen_india Braveheart? 56 During buoyancy or during decline Should I consider buying in this sector here? Or here? Returns: 56X
  57. 57. Twitter - @niteen_india 57 Buying the Pessimism Case study: Paper sector in 2020-21 (Cyclical and multiple parameters affecting it)
  58. 58. Twitter - @niteen_india Paper Stocks 58 Headwinds & Tailwinds Source: screener, publically available data • Stocks were down by ~60-70% in a year and a half between 2018 –2020 • Stock were already coming down before COVID-19 • Sector was facing headwinds • No one wanted to publically own this sector • “Experts” were sighting lack of demand and deteriorating pricing power as a possible reasons for the “death” of the sector • Difficult period did help companies put their acts together and there will come “external” unknown reasons to rebound • Now when mojo is back everyone is on another extreme and counting on the “global shortfall”, “multi year bull run” and “uninterrupted paper demand” and huge growth!!! • There are certain things that never change
  59. 59. Twitter - @niteen_india Paper Stocks 59 West Coast Paper Mills & JK Paper Source: screener, publically available data This is a case study and not a recommendation Recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice. 2018-2020 & 2020-2022 625 • Our estimate: in good times it could achieve 800-1000Crs EBITDA while it came to 261Crs in FY21 • Our estimate: in good times it could achieve 1200-1400Crs EBITDA while it came to 563Crs in FY21 Recommended on 02-Sep-2020 @185. Still in coverage Recommended on 22-Feb-2021 @137 Not under coverage anymore
  60. 60. Twitter - @niteen_india Paper Stock 60 West Coast Paper Mills Source: screener, publically available data This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice
  61. 61. Twitter - @niteen_india Paper Stock 61 West Coast Paper Mills Source: screener, publically available data This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice
  62. 62. Twitter - @niteen_india Paper Stocks 62 JK Paper Source: screener, publically available data This is a case study and not a recommendation It was a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice
  63. 63. Twitter - @niteen_india Paper Stocks 63 JK Paper Source: screener, publically available data This is a case study and not a recommendation It was a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice
  64. 64. Twitter - @niteen_india 64 Buying the Pessimism Case study: Capital Goods 2020-2021 [Multiyear issues, tired (read “dead”) investors ]
  65. 65. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 65 Headwinds, Headwinds and only Headwinds Source: IBEF Presentation 2019, Engineering & Capital Goods Care Report, Capital goods sector Aug 2020 • Capital Goods industry is often called the ‘mother of all manufacturing industry’. • By definition, any good (plant, machinery, equipment) that is used to manufacture other products (either directly or indirectly) is called a Capital Good. • The Capital Goods industry contributes ~2% of GDP in India. In China it is 4.1%, in Germany 3.4%, and in South Korea 2.8%. • The performance of capital goods sector is directly linked to the overall manufacturing sector. • While the exports were stagnant during 8 years, the capex in domestic economy was almost stagnant • One of the major contributor in Engineering exports is Iron and Steel & products made of Iron and Steel. If remove this contribution then Capital Good sectors should have a negative demand • This sector has the highest number of stocks recommended put together in in our two research services
  66. 66. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 66 Headwinds, Headwinds and only Headwinds While imports were rising and expected to rise further Titbit • The country meets almost 40% of its demand of Capital Goods through imports. Source: IBEF Presentation 2019, Engineering & Capital Goods Care Report, Capital goods sector Aug 2020
  67. 67. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 67 Negative CAGR for a 6 year period & Stagnant Utilization Source: IBEF Presentation 2019, Engineering & Capital Goods Care Report, Capital goods sector Aug 2020
  68. 68. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 68 TD Power Systems Ltd This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice Source: screener, publically available data ?
  69. 69. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 69 TD Power Systems Ltd This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice Source: screener, publically available data Zero debt; cash positive No equity dilution; buy-back
  70. 70. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 70 TD Power Systems Ltd This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice IPO @ ₹261 on Aug 26, 2011 Recommended here on 10-Feb-2021 @150 Source: Google, publically available data
  71. 71. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 71 TD Power Systems Ltd This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice Source: screener, publically available data ?
  72. 72. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 72 TD Power Systems Ltd This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice Source: screener, publically available data Q3FY21 results declared on 04-Feb-2021 Recommended on 10-Feb-2021 @150
  73. 73. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 73 Apar Industries Ltd This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice Source: screener, publically available data
  74. 74. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 74 Apar Industries Ltd This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice Source: screener, publically available data Q3FY21 results declared on 04-Feb-2021 Recommended on 21-May-2021 @524
  75. 75. Twitter - @niteen_india Capital Goods sector 75 Apar Industries Ltd This is a case study and not a recommendation It is a recommended stock to our clients, we own it too. We may exit too without any notice Recommended here on 21-Ma-2021 @524 1321.05 Source: Google, publically available data
  76. 76. Twitter - @niteen_india Summary 76  Cashflow, Debt, Equity dilution, promoters unpledged holding are very critical parameters  Follow the rule of 3 parts of portfolio (A, B and C) covered initially  Strict about the buy and sell pricing; esp. buy  Never run behind the stocks; if something is gone let it go; don’t crib let others earn too  Keep a buy range; similar to sell range. If stock going below buy range reevaluate your assumptions/if anything fundamentally wrong with the company?  Always study the company, business model and if you do not understand do not invest  Study by CFA Institute (number of stocks in the portfolio and diversifying risk)  Patience, patience and patience Critical factors
  77. 77. Twitter - @niteen_india 77 Buying the Pessimism Case study: IPCA Labs • 4.4X returns • 40%+ XIRR • 4.5 years
  78. 78. Twitter - @niteen_india IPCA Labs 78 Brief profile • Incorporated in 1949. • Incorporated under the name The Indian Pharmaceutical Combine Association (IPCA). • Fully-integrated manufactures over 350 formulations and 80 APIs for various therapeutic segments • One of the 20 largest formulation companies in India • Business segments: • API Business (30% revenue): • produces over 80 APIs at 12 production facilities • Export of 79% of the APIs and Intermediates business to 70 countries • Focus on backward integration, superior supply chain reliability and cost competitiveness • Formulations (70% revenue): • Manufactures over 350 formulations • Leaders in Pain, Rheumatology, Antimalarials, and Haircare therapies • Co's leading brands include Zerodol, Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, and Solvin. • Three manufacturing sites still under US FDA import alert • Geographical Mix – FY21: Europe -28%, Africa -20%, America – 21%, Asia – 17%, CIS – 7%, Australia – 7% 2009-2014 • Post 2009 crash • 15X in 5 years This is a case study and not a recommendation
  79. 79. Twitter - @niteen_india Ban, Ban, Ban… 79 Test the patience… • Outperforming pharma during last 5 years, peak in 2014 • IPCA peaked at ~450 • US FDA bans imports from IPCA Labs plant in MP: 2015 • US FDA issues import alert to 2 plants of IPCA Labs: 2015 • Bought 10% of quantity in 2015 @310 Peak of pharma sector in 2014 IPCA peaked at ~450 Price adjusted to split in the ratio of 2:1 2013-2015 2016-2018 • Brexit impacted • Anti-malarial drug Hydroxychloroquine banned by WHO • USA-China trade issues • Chinese raw material supply/price issue • 90% quantity between 2016-2018 • Bought 30% of quantity in 2016 @230 • Bought 20% of quantity in 2017 @210 • Bought 40% of quantity in 2018 @320 This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: screener, publically available data
  80. 80. Twitter - @niteen_india IPCA Labs 80 Profit & Loss… This is a case study and not a recommendation Topline: 2X Bottomline: 2.33X Stock price: 15X Topline: 1.64X Bottomline: 2.37X How about buying the pessimism? Stock price: 2X Stock price: 4.4X 40%+ XIRR
  81. 81. Twitter - @niteen_india IPCA Labs 81 Balance Sheet… This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: screener, publically available data
  82. 82. Twitter - @niteen_india IPCA Labs 82 Cash Flows This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: screener, publically available data
  83. 83. Twitter - @niteen_india IPCA Labs 83 Corporate actions This is a case study and not a recommendation 2016 ₹ 0.00 Source: screener, publically available data
  84. 84. Twitter - @niteen_india Patience, Patience, Patience… 84 Slow and steady accumulation helps… • USFDA issue did not get resolve • Operations in other countries started showing results • COVID happened in 2020: game changer • Got special approval to ship Hydroxychloroquine in the USA market • Stock touched a peak of ~1250 • Peak revenue, peak profit, peak share price • Fully exited in Oct 2020. Overall: • 4.4X returns • 40%+ XIRR • Total duration ~4.5 years from start till end • Did we consider recommending it to our clients? • Yes at 425. But missed it: Why? Overall • 4.4X returns • 40%+ XIRR • 4.5 years (avg duration) This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: screener, publically available data
  85. 85. Twitter - @niteen_india 85 Buying the Pessimism Case study: COVID wave (should I invest in Hotel/Tourism sector in Apr-2021 (2nd wave peak in India) • Negatively impacted sector • Survival was in question
  86. 86. Twitter - @niteen_india India’s 10 Hotels v/s IPCA 86 Buying The Pessimism This is a case study and not a recommendation IPCA 27,500 During Corona 2nd Wave Peak (Mar-Apr 2021) No Company Market cap (in crores) 1 Indian Hotels 7,735 2 EIH Ltd 3,306 3 Chalet Hotels 3,160 4 Delta Corp 1,674 5 Lemon Tree 1,264 6 Wonderla 638 7 TajGVK 585 8 EIH Associated Hotels 552 9 Advani Hotels 139 10 Sinclairs Hotel 78 Total market cap 19,131 Total debt ~ 10,000 55,000 rooms + Restaurants + Iconic brands available at a Market Cap of 19k + Debt 10k (EV 29K) << ARR < INR 3500 Occupancy < 20-30% No one wanted to talk about this sector publically Source: screener, publically available data
  87. 87. Twitter - @niteen_india India’s Top 10 Hotels v/s IPCA 87 Buying The Pessimism This is a case study and not a recommendation No Company Market cap (in crores) 1 Indian Hotels 38,860 2 EIH Ltd 10,040 3 Chalet Hotels 6,780 4 Delta Corp 5,640 5 Lemon Tree 5,510 6 Wonderla 1,910 7 TajGVK 1,118 8 EIH Associated Hotels 1,058 9 Advani Hotels 376 10 Sinclairs Hotel 282 Total market cap 71,574 IPCA 23,200 Today • 1.4 year and basket is up 3.7X+ from bottom • Even if bought staggered it is 1.5-2X >> ARR > INR 8000+ Occupancy > 70-75% (Rooms not available at Leisure locations) Everyone wants to own a hotel stock/book a hotel Source: screener, publically available data
  88. 88. Twitter - @niteen_india Some of the Hotel properties 88 Pessimism gives the best price but it comes at the cost of patience Source: screener, publically available data This is a case study and not a recommendation
  89. 89. Twitter - @niteen_india Some of the tweets on Hotel industry 89 This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: screener, publically available data
  90. 90. Twitter - @niteen_india Some of the tweets on Hotel industry 90 This is a case study and not a recommendation Source: screener, publically available data
  91. 91. Twitter - @niteen_india 91 Caselets
  92. 92. Twitter - @niteen_india 92 Case 1: A cable manufacturer: Manufacturing numbers 1) a series of acquisitions 2) Cash from operating activity not in line with net profit declared by the company 3) Almost every year Equity dilution from 14Cr to 16Cr in to 18Cr to 21 Crs to 28Crs to 37Crs 4) Borrowing going up 5) Interest cost not in line with the debt amount. Interest cost capitalized 6) Receivable nos going up faster than revenue numbers 7) Other Liabilities going up too and need to see any contingent liabilities 8) Poor Promoters holding at 29% only but no pledging
  93. 93. Twitter - @niteen_india 93 Case 2: A pioneer in making ready to use steel for construction purposes 1) a series of acquisitions esp overseas 2) Cash from operating activity not in line with net profit declared by the company 3) Equity dilution from 12Cr in 2013 to 14Cr in 2015 to 15Cr in 2016 4) Borrowing going up 5) Receivable nos going up faster than revenue numbers 6) Fixed assets going up but no CWIP. Buying companies 7) High loans and advances. Need to investigate the related party transactions 8) Promoters holding is decent but pledging is a concern 9) Interest cost not in line with the debt amount. Interest cost capitalized
  94. 94. Twitter - @niteen_india 94 Case 3: A leader in the Security Surveillance domain, the first company of its kind 1) Poor Cashflow from operations, consistently negative 2) Investing cashflow but no CWIP but Fixed Assets growing 3) Equity dilution from 13crs to 17 to 18crs 4) Trade receivables growing rapidly and numbers are likely to be hidden here 5) Loans and advances gone up 3X need to investigate further related party transactions 6) Sales growing faster than profit, the company does not have pricing power 7) Interest cost not in line with the debt amount. Interest cost capitalized 8) Promoters holding is just 23.07% and in that also 42.48% of promoter holding pledged
  95. 95. Twitter - @niteen_india Aurum Capital is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No: INH000008118) and Investment Advisory (SEBI Registration No: INA000011024) services company. Started by Jiten Parmar and Niteen S Dharmawat, who together have more than 4 decades of experience investing in equities and guiding and mentoring fellow investors. This rich industry background helps us understand companies, complexities of business and tipping points that make or break a company. Our approach is not limited to just number crunching but going beyond. We focus on the business, strategic direction, the competitive landscape, the governance process, the background of the promoters, turnarounds, to name a few. Often these are more critical items than just numbers. Jiten and Niteen have successfully waded through multiple bear and bull market cycles.
  96. 96. Twitter - @niteen_india IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information herein is used as per the available sources of bseindia.com/nseindia.com, company’s annual reports & other public/private database sources. Aurum Capital is not responsible for any discrepancy in the above mentioned data. Investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for necessary explanation of its contents. Future estimates mentioned herein are personal opinions & views of the analyst. Analyst Name – Niteen S Dharmawat. For queries / grievances – support@aurumcapital.in. SEBI registration No: INA000011024 Readers are responsible for all outcomes arising of buying / selling particular scrip/ scrips mentioned here in. This report indicates opinion of the author & is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Aurum Capital & its representatives have vested interest in above mentioned securities at the time of this publication, and its partners / company have positions / financial interest in the securities mentioned above. Aurum Capital, or its associates are not paid or compensated at any point of time, in last 12 months by any way from the companies mentioned in the report. Aurum Capital, or its representatives do not have more than 1% of the company’s total shareholding. Ownership of the stock: may have advised to clients. Served as a director / employee of mentioned companies in report: No. Any material conflict of interest at the time of publishing report: No The views expressed in this post accurately reflect the author’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensations, if any was, is or will be, directly indirectly, related to specific recommendation or views expressed in the report.
  97. 97. Twitter - @niteen_india Thank you Email: info@aurumcapital.in Twitter: @niteen_india @CapitalAurum 97
  98. 98. Twitter - @niteen_india 98 Additional details (Annual Reports, Concalls/Corporate announcements)
  99. 99. Twitter - @niteen_india 99  Always look for consolidated numbers and not standalone  Go through notes to the financial statements for details  (P&L): net profits and sales are positive, rising or falling;  (CF, P&L): operating cash flow after working capital adjustments is positive or negative and compare with NP  (B/S and P&L): net debt is rising or falling and interest amount; B/S: Balance Sheet CF: Cash Flow P&L: Profit and Loss Annual Report Financial statements
  100. 100. Twitter - @niteen_india 100  (CF, P&L): Is company paying Taxes while showing profits?  (P&L) Component of other income? If high then see previous years/quarters’ numbers also. If one off then remove from net profit, if consistent then dig more to find sustainability  (P&L) What are the main expenditure heads: employee costs, raw material dependencies (e.g. crude prices)  (P&L, CF): Interest paid v/s net profit v/s OCF  (P&L, B/S notes) Inventory trends: Finished good, WIP v/s sales numbers Annual Report Financial statements B/S: Balance Sheet CF: Cash Flow P&L: Profit and Loss
  101. 101. Twitter - @niteen_india 101 • Salary of the directors, revision in the salary, in line with the growth/profit numbers? • Members of audit and salary committees • Composition of board of directors, how many of them are independent? • Directors attendance in board meetings • Independent auditors report Annual Report Others
  102. 102. Twitter - @niteen_india 102 - Corporate Announcements - Esp. negative news (mandatory to disclose but still companies skip) - Analyst conference calls - Equal opportunity - Treatment for negative/tough questions Corporate announcements & Con-calls Governance
  103. 103. Twitter - @niteen_india Annual Report 103 Chairman / CEO’s statement and Management Discussion and Analysis  Must read the first two and last two paragraphs in detail.  Find the answer for:  Is management staying focused?  What are the management’s stated plans to take the business forward: Expanding capacity, Rationalizing underperforming areas, Introducing new products /services to existing customers, Investing to raise margins (e.g. new product features, service add-ons) via R&D, marketing, etc
  104. 104. Twitter - @niteen_india 104  Negative list: flowery language, away from the reality like throwing big industry numbers/future growth  Positive list: clearly elaborating risks while talking about opportunities, conservative in approach,  Look for: The results of operations, Changes in financial condition and Risk management strategies Annual Report Chairman / CEO’s statement and Management Discussion and Analysis Warning: These days Annual Reports are also written by the IR companies. They may use the language/terminologies that is liked by the investors. So beware. Important to see what was said in previous years and what was delivered.

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