Eleanor Field: What Might Low Growth Mean for the South West?

625 views

Published on

Eleanor Field (South West RDA / South West Observatory) delivers a presentation to the Association of Regional Observatories network event in Birmingham on Wednesday 27th January 2010.

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
625
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
66
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Eleanor Field: What Might Low Growth Mean for the South West?

    1. 1. Growth, low growth and environmental limits Eleanor Field 27 th Jan 2010
    2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>‘ Growth within environmental limits’? </li></ul><ul><li>Arguments for low growth </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling - what does low growth mean for the South West? </li></ul>
    3. 3. Growth within environmental limits <ul><li>The South West Debates </li></ul><ul><li>Defining environmental limits </li></ul><ul><li>“ the concept of environmental limits is based on the notion of the threshold or a number of thresholds tha cannot be surpassed. From a human perspective an environmental limit may be defined as the point past which the flow of services which are essential to support well-being and ultimately human life are put at risk” (The New Economics Foundation, 2008) </li></ul>
    4. 4. Progress towards growth within environmental limits <ul><li>Incremental vs radical change in business models </li></ul><ul><li>Public attitudes </li></ul><ul><li>Barriers to env sustainable business practice (NEF,2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Enforceable limits </li></ul><ul><li>Economic consequences (EA, 2008) </li></ul>
    5. 5. Is it enough? <ul><li>‘ Prosperity without growth’ </li></ul><ul><li>Prosperity and material wealth </li></ul><ul><li>Economic stability </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Myth of decoupling’ – Environmental limits </li></ul><ul><li>Is low growth an alternative? </li></ul>
    6. 6. What might low growth mean for SWE? <ul><li>Scenario modelling using the SW regional accounts model </li></ul><ul><li>Aims of the work </li></ul>
    7. 7. Introduction <ul><li>‘ Growth within environmental limits’? </li></ul><ul><li>Arguments for low growth </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling - what does low growth mean for the South West? </li></ul>
    8. 8. South West Growth <ul><ul><li>1989-2006 trend growth (GVA) 2.9% a year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1.1% of growth in labour </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1.8% growth in labour productivity (GVA per FTE) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Baseline growth 2.5% and scenario of 1.5%. </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Scenarios Mechanism Geographical scope SW only All UK Global 1. Imposed Environmental Resource Constraints    Technological Growth Slowdown    2. Behavioural Changes Savings/Consumptions Behaviour    Labour Supply Behaviour   
    10. 10. Environmental Resource Constraints
    11. 11. Environmental Resource Constraints
    12. 12. The other scenarios <ul><ul><li>Slower technology growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assumption that slow down occurs in all sectors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial shock – 1.5% growth leads to 1.3% growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduction in Labour supply </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Output effects tend to be in labour-intensive activities. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SW only – increase in in-migration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact partially mitigated by increase in real wages </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. So what for environmental limits
    14. 14. Final thoughts <ul><li>Our future is completely intertwined with everyone else’s. </li></ul><ul><li>Low growth can come from a variety of different places – what causes it determine its impact </li></ul><ul><li>Better models and data </li></ul>
    15. 15. Enter image title here

    ×