Forecast penjualan

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Forecast penjualan

  1. 1. BAB 3 FORECAST PENJUALAN 31 Pengertian Forecast Penjualan Forecast Penjualan adalah suatu teknik proyeksi tentang tingkat permintaan konsumenpotensial pada suatu periode tertentu dengan menggunakan berbagai asumsi tertentu juga,yakni sesuatunya berjalan seperti masa lalu. Dalam hal ini hasil dari suatu forecast lebihmerupakan pernyataan atau penilaian yang dikuantifisir terhadap kondisi masa depanmengenai penjualan sebagai proyeksi teknis dari permintaan konsumen potensial untukjangka waktu tertentu. Meskipun demikian hasil perkiraan yang diperoleh mungkin saja tidaksama dengan rencana. Hal ini disebabkan karena: 1. Forecast lebih merupakan pernyataan atau penilaian yang dikuantifisir terhadap kondisi masa depan mengenai subjek tertentu, misalnya penjualan. 2. Forecast penjualan merupakan proyeksi teknis dari permintaan konsumen potensial untuk jangka waktu tertentu, dengan menyebutkan asumsi yang mendasarinya. 3. Forecast selayaknya hanya dipandang sebagai bahan masukan untuk mengembangkan suatu rencana penjualan. 4. Manajemen dapat menerima, memodifikasi atau menolak hasil dari suatu forecast. 32 Metode-metode yang digunakanMetode forecast penjualan dapat dikelompokan sebagai berikut: I.Judgmental Method atau Non Statistic Method, yakni metode memproyeksikan penjualan yang berdasar pada pendapat selesman, sales manager, para ahli, dan survey konsumen. II.Statistical Method, meliputi: A. Analisa Trend, yang terdiri dari: 1. Penerapan garis trend secara bebas 2. Penerapan garis trend dengan metode setengah rata-rata 3. Penerapan garis trend secara matematis, yang terbagi 1
  2. 2. menjadi: a. Metode Moment b. Metode Kuadrat terkecil (Least Square) c. Metode Kuadrat (garis lengkung) B. Analisa Korelasi III.Specific Purpose Method, meliputi: A. Analisa Industri B. Analisa Product Line C. Analisa Penggunaan Akhir Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pemilihan cara pembuatan forecast penjualan, antaralain: a. Sifat produk b. Metode distribusi c. Luas lahan d. Persaingan e. Data historis yang tersedia Beberapa kebijaksanaan yang dipengaruhi oleh hasil forecast penjualan antara lain: a. Kebijaksanaan perencanaan produksi b. Kebijaksanaan persediaan c. Kebijaksanaan pemakaian mesin d. Kebijaksanaan investasi aktiva tetap e. Kebijaksanaan pembelian bahan baku dan bakan pembantu f. Kebijaksanaan aliran kas
  3. 3. Perusahaan Rokok DJARUM Data Penjualan selama 8 tahun terakhir Tahun Penjualan Tahun Penjualan 1995 8.000 1999 10.400 1996 8.800 2000 10.800 1997 10.000 2001 12.000 1998 9.200 2002 12.400 Y = a + bx A. Metode Least Square (Kuadrat terkecil) Parameter X disusun dan di usahakan agar jumlahnya sama dengan nol ( ∑X = 0 ) Tahun (n) Penjualan (Y) X X2 XY 1995 8.000 -7 49 - 56.000 1996 8.800 -5 25 - 44.000 1997 10.000 -3 9 - 30.000 1998 9.200 -1 1 - 9.200 1999 10.400 1 1 10.400 2000 10.800 3 9 32.400 2001 12.000 5 25 60.000 2002 12.400 7 49 86.000 Jumlah ( ∑ ) 81.600 0 168 50.400Rumus: Y = a + bX = 10.200 + 300 X Y 2003 = 10.200 + 300 (9) = 12.900 3
  4. 4. B. Metode Moment Tahun (n) Penjualan (Y) X X2 XY 1995 8.000 0 0 0 1996 8.800 1 1 8.800 1997 10.000 2 4 20.000 1998 9.200 3 9 27.600 1999 10.400 4 16 41.600 2000 10.800 5 25 54.000 2001 12.000 6 36 72.000 2002 12.400 7 49 86.000 Jumlah ( ∑ ) 81.600 28 140 310.80081.600 = 8a + 28b (x 5) 408.000 = 40a + 140b310.800 = 28a + 140b (x 1) 310.800 = 28a + 140b 97.200 = 12a a = 8.100 ∑Y = a.n + b.∑X Rumus: Y = a + bX81.600 = 8.100 (8) + 28b Y = 8.100 + 600 X = 64.800 + 28b Y 2003 = 8.100 + 600 (8) b = 600 Y = 12.900∑Y = Jumlah data historisn = Jumlah waktu datax = Nilai pada setiap periode waktua = Nilai Y pada titik 0b = Lereng garis lurus C. Metode setengah rata-rata (semi average) Tahun (n) Penjualan (Y) X
  5. 5. 1995 8.000 -3 1996 8.800 -1 1997 10.000 1 1998 9.200 3 1999 10.400 5 2000 10.800 7 2001 12.000 9 2002 12.400 11 2003 a a a 13a = Rata-rata kelompok 1b =n = Jarak waktu antara 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 5
  6. 6. X = Jumlah tahun dihitung dari periode dasar (nilai pada setiap periode waktu)Rumus: Y = a + bx Y = 9.000 + 300x Y 2003 = 9.000 + 300 (13) = 12.900
  7. 7. D. Forecast berdasarkan metode khusus 1) Analisis Industri Dalam analisis ini lebih ditekankan pada “ Market Share “ yang dimiliki perusahaan. Analisis ini menghubungkan potensi penjualan perusahaan dengan industri pada umumnya (volume, posisi dalam persaingan). Tahapan dalam pemakaian analisis industri: a. Membuat proyeksi permintaan industri b. Menilai posisi perusahaan dalam persaingan 2) Analisis product line Umumnya analisis product line digunakan pada perusahaan yang menghasilkan beberapa macam produk yang tidak mempunyai kesamaan, sehingga dalam membuat forecastnya harus terpisah. 3) Analisis penggunaan akhir Bagi perusahaan yang menghasilkan produk setengah jadi, masih memerlukan proses lebih lanjut menjadi produk jadi dan siap untuk dikonsumsi, maka dalam pembuatan forecastnya ditentukan oleh penggunaan yang ada kaitannya dengan produk yang dihasilkan.33 Pemilihan Metode Terbaik Dalam Peramalan  Garis LurusTahun (n) Penjualan (Y) X X2 XY 2001 130 -2 4 - 260 2002 145 -1 1 - 145 2003 150 0 0 0 2004 165 1 1 165 2005 170 2 4 340 760 0 10 100 7
  8. 8. a= = = 152 b=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
  9. 9. 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 9
  10. 10. 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 = =900aa000000000000001e001a0000000000040000002701ffff03000000000010
  11. 11. Rumus: Y = a + bX = 152 + 10 X Y 2006 = 152 + 10 (3) = 182  Garis LengkungTahun (n) Penjualan (Y) X X2 XY X2Y X4 2001 130 -2 4 - 260 520 16 2002 145 -1 1 - 145 145 1 2003 150 0 0 0 0 0 2004 165 1 1 165 165 1 2005 170 2 4 340 680 16 760 0 10 100 1.510 34Rumus yang digunakan sebagai berikut:∑Y = a.n +c.∑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 11
  12. 12. 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
  13. 13. 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 13
  14. 14. 010d000e01010101010101010101010000000a0b13140e11090101010101010101010128a6030107080f1001110f10010512000000090100000001010101010101010101010d0e010209010000000101010101010101010101010d0e010101000000010101010101010101010101010d090101000000010101010101010101010101010a0b0c01000000010101010101010101010506040708090120260001010101010101010101010200000304010a090001010101010101010101010101010101010101010c00000040092900aa000000000000001300110000000000040000002701ffff030000000000∑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
  15. 15. 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 =a.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 15
  16. 16. 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  18. 18. 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 = 5a + 10c (x 2) 1.520 = 10a + 20c1.510 = 10a +34c (x 1) 1.510 = 10a + 34c 10 = -14c c= - 0.17∑Y = a.n +c.∑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  20. 20. 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 Rumus: Y = a + bx 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
  21. 21. 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 = 5a + 10 (-0,71) y 2006 = 153.43 + 10 (3) – 0.71760 = 5a – 7.1 = 177.04760-7.1= 5a a = 153. 43 b=0100090000036c06000000003004000000003004000026060f005608574d4643010000000000010072af0000000001000000340800000000000034080000010000006c0000000000000000000000190000001d0000000000000000000000940300002204000020454d4600000100340800000c000000010000000000000000000000000000005605000000030000e20100000f010000000000000000000000000000665a070055220400460000002c00000020000000454d462b014001001c000000100000000210c0db010000006000000060000000460000008c02000080020000454d462b224004000c000000000000001e4009000c00000000000000244001000c0000000 21
  22. 22. 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
  23. 23. 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 23
  24. 24. 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 = = 10900aa000000000000001e001a0000000000040000002701ffff030000000000Hasil perhitungan ramalan penjualan menurut metode trend garis lurus dan garis lengkungtersebut di atas kemudian dibandingkan dengan penjualan nyata sebagai berikut: Penjualan Tahun Ramalan Penjualan Nyata Trend Garis Lurus Trend Garis Lengkung 2001 130 132 130.56 2002 145 142 142.71 2003 150 152 153.42 2004 165 162 162.71
  25. 25. 2005 170 172 170.71Dari tabel penjualan nyata dan ramalan penjualan, bila metode trend garis lurus dibandingkandengan metode trend garis lengkung tampak ramalan penjualan metode garis lengkung lebihmendekati penjualan nyata. Karena itu metode trend garis lengkung lebih tepat digunakanuntuk membuat ramalan penjualan tahun 2006. tetapi karena ramalan penjualan metode garislengkung tidak persis sama dengan penjualan nyata maka sebaiknya untuk membentukmetode mana yang paling baik, digunakan standar kesalahan peramalan (SKP) dengan rumus:X = Penjualan nyataY = Ramalan penjualann = banyaknya data yang paling sesuaiTrend Garis Lurus Tahun X Y (X-Y) (X-Y)2 2001 130 132 -2 4 2002 145 142 3 9 2003 150 152 -2 2 2004 165 162 3 9 2005 170 172 -2 4 Jumlah 28SKP = 2.36Trend Garis Lengkung Tahun X Y (X-Y) (X-Y)2 2001 130 130.56 - 0.56 0.312 2002 145 142.71 2.29 5.244 2003 150 153.42 - 3.42 11.70 2004 165 162.71 2.29 5.244 2005 170 170.71 - 0.71 0.504 Jumlah 23SKP = 2.15 25
  26. 26. Karena SKP trend garis lengkung sebesar 2.15 lebih kecil daripada SKP trend garis lurussebesar 2.36 maka metode trend garis lengkung lebih sesuai untuk ramalan penjualan tahun2006.

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