Trends, Stats And The Future Of The International Student Market Place


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  • The SDM shows aspirations of the youth in China who are in pursuit of overseas studies. Over 40% of the local provision in China in 2006 was Engineering and Technology related courses. Whereas demand is likely to persist, some new courses are showing very strong increase in the student data.
  • Trends, Stats And The Future Of The International Student Market Place

    1. 1. Trends, stats and the future of the international student market place Janet Ilieva, PhD
    2. 2. Content <ul><li>Stats and figures from the international student place: some comparative evidence </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging markets </li></ul><ul><li>Internationalisation and the challenges it poses: what do we do about them </li></ul>
    3. 3. Global Trends <ul><li>According to the OECD (2007) over 2.7 million students enrolled outside their home country in 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>Over 120 million students study in Higher Education across the world (UNESCO 2007 and BC estimates) </li></ul><ul><li>Global proportion of all students studying overseas (in relation to the tertiary education in country expansion) has only increased by 2% for the same period </li></ul><ul><li>Students from China estimate more 15% of the total internationally mobile students, (they represent 20% of the non-EU population and 15% of the total international student population in UK). </li></ul>Source: OECD (2007), Education at a Glance.
    4. 4. Global Market Share Over half of the students (52%) study in four countries (US, UK, Germany and France). Compared to 2000, this is a decrease from the 56% which these countries used to host The loss in market share over the past 5 years has been absorbed predominantly by the USA, and to a smaller extent UK and Germany
    5. 5. Time series for some key host countries 1995 - 2006 US and UK: Malaysia S Korea Thailand Indonesia China, HK Thailand Indonesia Middle East China 13,000 India 17% Nigeria 30% Thailand 10% Middle East & NA Mainly China 36% India 45%
    6. 6. Countries prioritisation <ul><li>Importance driven by size: any minor changes in demand from a big country would have massive implications for each education provider </li></ul><ul><li>Growth dynamics: strategic importance, set to increase in future </li></ul>
    7. 7. BUT: increased dependency on fewer markets for UK Countries sourcing 50% of the non-EU population in 1998 and 2006 Source: HESA Student Record Country 1998/99 Country 2006/07 Malaysia 12632 China 50020 United States 10981 India 23910 Hong Kong 8289 United States 22245 Singapore 6016 Malaysia 11870 Japan 5686 Nigeria 11150 Norway 4055     China 4017     Taiwan 3570     India 3498     Total 1998/99 117290 Total non-EU 2006/07 249450
    8. 8. Countries sourcing half of the students in UK, US and Australia Source: Institute of International Education (2007); HESA Student Record (2008) and Australia Education International (2007). USA   UK   Australia 2006 India 83,833 China 50,020 China 45,873 China 67,723 India 23,910 India 25,085 Korea, Republic of 62,392 United States 22,245 Malaysia 14,897 Japan 35,282 Malaysia 11,870     Taiwan 29,094 Nigeria 11,150     Grand total 582,984 Total non-EU 249450 Grand total 171,246     Grand total 376190    
    9. 9. Emerging markets in UK Countries growing at a rate higher than the UK average growth rate
    10. 10. Emerging markets Australia Logarithmic scale
    11. 11. Host countries in changing context <ul><li>Major host countries’ growth rates have slowed down </li></ul><ul><li>Diversity of different mode of delivery: increasing importance of trans-national education </li></ul><ul><li>The length of time students study in UK is decreasing with increased popularity of postgraduate courses (up to 1 year) </li></ul><ul><li>Rise of non-English Speaking Countries as education hosts; </li></ul><ul><li>Expanding usage of English as language of instruction beyond the main English speaking countries </li></ul><ul><li>The distinction between sending and hosting countries becoming more blurred: increasingly traditional sending countries are becoming host countries: e.g. China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and others </li></ul><ul><li>Increased and improved in country provision of education </li></ul>
    12. 12. Competition: increasingly sending countries becoming host countries China   Japan   Malaysia   Korea 57504 China 74292 Indonesia 7541 Japan 18363 Republic of  Korea 15974 China 7310 United State 11784 Taiwan 4211 Bangladesh 6517 Vietnam 7310 Malaysia 2156 Pakistan 1956 Indonesia 5652 Vietnam 2119 Nigeria 1813 Total 162,695 Total 117,927 Total 44,390
    13. 13. Implications for UK <ul><li>Increasingly students are coming to the UK for shorter courses, i.e. PGT degrees (55% of the non-EU students are PG) </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of the students in PG studies are from overseas </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dependency of wide range of subjects at postgraduate level on overseas students (hence threat on the vitality of these subjects if demand contracts); Highest risk for subjects like Engineering and Technology, Business related subjects, Computer and Mathematical sciences, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increased effort and cost of recruitment: currently 54% of the total students have to be recruited on annual bases (this is over 202,000 students each year), in order to maintain 0% growth </li></ul>
    14. 14. Brazil Source: AEI, Statistics Canada, DAAD, IIE, HESA, Dept. of Education NZ, JASSO
    15. 15. Russia Source: AEI, Statistics Canada, DAAD, IIE, HESA, Dept. of Education NZ, JASSO
    16. 16. Students from Brazil: May Data (various years) Source: Australia Education International
    17. 17. Further Education <ul><li>Slow down (-1%) in 2006 the FE enrolments from international students compared to the previous year. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EU countries: 12% growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non EU countries: -12% growth </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Decline in the non-EU countries mainly contributed by decline in China and other major sending countries: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China -20% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pakistan -7% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan -3% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Iran -8% </li></ul></ul>
    18. 18. FE issues: <ul><li>Decline in China mainly driven by*: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in foundation programmes on offer in China </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expansion of recruitment into Local HE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More competition within Asia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wider VET offer in competitor countries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift in the demand from UG to PG courses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Highest growth in non-EU countries recorded in: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>India 7% (as from this year India is the largest non-EU market) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Libya 44% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Saudi Arabia 41% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuous growth in South Korea 9% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>* Acknowledgement: based on comments from Jazreel Goh and Nicole de Lalouviere, British Council Beijing. </li></ul>
    19. 19. Emerging FE Markets in UK Highest growth marked by India: market share 1.8% in 2002 increased to 10.2% in 2005
    20. 20. Emerging FE Market in Australia
    21. 21. Beyond statistics <ul><li>Most current data are at least 1.5 years out of date; </li></ul><ul><li>UK data issues: FE data unreliable (no central record); HE data slower in publishing than other countries (Germany, US, Australia) </li></ul><ul><li>Issue: most of the PGT students reported would have left by the time statistics are made available </li></ul><ul><li>British Council approach: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Introducing Early reporting scheme through the Education UK Partnership (for HE and FE institutions beyond the partnership) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Running country specific forecasts in attempt to predict the future of international education in short to mid-term (with the Economist Intelligence Unit) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On-line system tracking students’ decision making processes and aspirations for overseas study (in partnership with UK Visa and UCAS) </li></ul></ul>
    22. 22. Early reporting project @ Education UK Partnership <ul><li>Higher Education early reporting is voluntary data collection, based on HESES returns but for international students (based on 1 December marker each year) </li></ul><ul><li>Recognising the need for access to national data on international students much earlier than is currently available through HESA – published up to 18 months after enrolment </li></ul><ul><li>Providing an on-line facility to upload data </li></ul><ul><li>Providing an on-line data mining tool to allow participating institutions access to the data </li></ul><ul><li>Thorough data validation procedures prior data publishing (30 universities have taken part so far) </li></ul><ul><li>FE data collection: in progress </li></ul>
    23. 23. Decisions! Decisions! Decisions! <ul><li>Why use the student decision making data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Verifying our knowledge about the market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Turning anecdotal evidence into empirical evidence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capturing shifts in demand before it is too late </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Insight into the student choices at city level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Allows on-line tracking of the student choice </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Future vs. Past PGT Demand in China HESA 2006-07 Student Decision Making (current) Source: HESA (2006); Student Decision Making Survey, © British Council
    25. 25. PGT demand at city level in China (2007 and 2008) PGT students in Beijing PGT students in Shanghai Source: Student Decision Making Survey, © British Council
    26. 26. What does the future hold - forecasting the international student mobility <ul><li>Project carried out with the Economist Intelligence Unit </li></ul><ul><li>The aim of the project was to develop a forecasting tool, which will produce predictions on international student demand for education in the UK </li></ul><ul><li>The predictions need to be: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>country specific (vs. predictions for 140 countries) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term to mid-term (vs. long-term) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The model prototype was developed for China and then replicated in other major source countries </li></ul><ul><li>An important additional objective was to calculate a price elasticity for the countries where the student mobility will be forecasted (i.e. China) and other country specific parameters </li></ul><ul><li>Allow the user to use the model independently, change parameters and produce scenarios </li></ul>
    27. 27. Structure Total enrolments model International students model Competitor model
    28. 28. Number of Chinese households with sufficient income for sizeable discretionary education spending set to increase strongly… Rapidly expanding potential market size
    29. 29. … but China faces a rapidly ageing demographic profile with the number of 17-22 year olds expected to peak in the next few years 2010 represents peak
    30. 30. Households in China
    31. 31. 3. Competitor model Pooling data from 8 countries:
    32. 32. 3. Competitor model Pooling data from 8 countries:
    33. 33. UK Market Share in China: Forecast
    34. 34. <ul><li>The Model </li></ul>