Unraveling the Relationship (TV and streaming)

Webinar, April 25, 2009

Cutting The Cord?
Unraveling the Relationship Between TV and
Streaming Video

Jon Gibs, VP Media Analytics
jon.gibs@nielsen.com

Howard Shimmel, SVP, Nielsen Solutions
Howard.shimmel@nielsen.com

© 2009 The Nielsen Company
www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com

Nielsen’s video measurement
methodology

Page 1

We’ll get to
empiricism
shortly, but first,
one big question:

Why does it
Why does this
sound so
sound so
plausible?
plausible?

Page 2

Why does it sound so plausible?
Because of this guy. Meet Ben Harris!

• Product manager for
VideoCensus
• Well educated
• Clearly young
• High income potential
• Almost the only person in our
office to “cut the cord”
• “I never watched much TV to
begin with…”

Page 3

Only slight growth in “cord cutting”
households
Growth of Media Platforms
70
62%
60 55%
Cable and Broadband
50
Percent Of Population

Cable and Narrowband
40
Cable and No Internet
30
20 No Cable and Broadband

10 No Cable and Narrowband
3.2% 3.9%
0
08

Au 8
M8

08
08

09
08

08
8

No 8
08
M8
8

l‐0

t‐0
‐0
0
‐0
r‐0

n‐

g‐

v‐
b‐

p‐
n‐

n‐
c‐
ay
ar

Ju

Oc
Ap

De
Ju
Fe

Se
Ja

Ja
Source: National People Meter Sample (1/08 to 1/09)


Key Finding
Cord Cutting may exist in pockets, however, we find little evidence of it existing
on the broad scale at this point. This finding is based on the following:

• Online video is changing the nature of Internet use—consistently drawing larger
audiences and time. All evidence suggests that this growth is happening in tandem
with TV growth, rather than at its expense

• There is a significant overlap between DVR and streaming use, particularly among
those who spend the most time viewing time shifted programming. This suggests
that once consumers have gotten used to the concept of time shifting, the platform
shift itself is less relevant

• To the degree that cord cutting does exist, it does not appear to be a function of
age, as is generally assumed. Older populations are more likely to be consuming
long-form online video

• While some populations are shifting time from TV to the internet, that population is
less than a third of those who access streaming content and, of those who do shift
time, that vast majority has shifted 5 percent or less of their time

Page 5

Is online video big enough to to make
Is online video big enough make a
difference?
a difference?
The evolving nature of online video

We’ve seen extraordinary growth in the
video category since 2003

Percent Change by Segment

Segment 3/03 vs 3/08 vs
3/09 3/09
E-Mail 242% 16%

Search 184% 11%

Member 780% 61%
Communities
Video/Movies 1,957% 8%

Total (Overall) 175% 8%

Source: Nielsen Netview, Combined Home and Work


Time spent streaming increased
86 percent over 2008
Year over Year Growth: Key Video Metrics
200
186
Audience Index
180
Time Spent Index
160
Index to March 2008

Time per Stream Index
134
140
Streams per Person Index
123
120
113
100
80
60
40
20
‐
8 9 9
8 8
8 08 8
8 9
8 8
08 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0
‐0 ‐0
‐0 ‐0
‐0 ‐0
‐0 ‐0
ct‐
l‐
pr ar
ar ov
un ug p c b
ay an
Ju Se Fe
De
J J
A O
A N M
M M

Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work

Page 8

Significant growth in very young
audience—and more wealthy viewers
Number of Unique Streamers

40%
80,000 Mar‐08
Unique Streamers (000)

35%
12%
70,000 Mar‐09
14% 30%
60,000
25%
50,000 20%
18% 15%
40,000 12%
14%
10%
6%
30,000 18%
5%
3% 24%
20,000
0%
32%
34% 4% 13%
1% ‐4%
10,000 ‐5%
‐10%
0
Male

Female

2 ‐ 11

12 ‐ 17

18 ‐ 24

25 ‐ 34

35 ‐ 49

50 ‐ 64

$0‐$24,999

$50,000‐$74,999

$75,000‐$99,999

$100,000‐$149,999

$150,000+
65+

$25,000‐$49,999

Page 9

Long-form content skews older,
challenging demo view of cord-cutting

Age Percent Of Age Percent Of
Age Percent Of
Cohort Viewers Cohort Viewers
Cohort Viewers
2-17 16% 2-17 16%
2-17 10%

18-34 27% 18-34 22%
18-34 27%

35+ 57% 35+ 62%
35+ 63%
Source: VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work

Page 10

18-24 year-olds decreasing time per stream,
relating to overall streaming population
Time Per Stream Index

120

100
Time Per Stream Index

80

60 Dec‐08
Mar‐09
40

20

0
2 ‐ 17 18 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 64 65+

Source: VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work

Page 11

Why? Overall population is watching more, and
kids seem to have different viewing patterns
Growth In Time Per Stream And
Streams Per Person

8%
160.0 2.7
2.7
140.0 2.6
2.6
120.0 2.5
18% 2.5
100.0 2.4
80.0 2.3
2.2
60.0 2.2
40.0 2.1
20.0 2.0
77.0 74.4 126.1 135.2
0.0 1.9
Universe Dec‐08 Universe Mar‐09 P18‐24 Dec‐08 P18‐24 March‐09

Streams Per Person Time Per Stream


Page 12

Is online videothe same as timemake
Is time shifting big enough to
shifting?
a difference?
The evolvingDVR usage to online streaming
Comparing nature of online video

In aggregate, live TV dominates the
video market
Percent Of Time Per Media

1%
4%
Live TV

DVR
95%
Streaming

Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (6/08 – 8/09): Total Only


Younger demographics tend to turn to
alternative video platforms
Percent of Time Per Platform

1% 1% 0% 0%
1% 1%
2% 3%
4%
5%
7% 10%
11% 2%
13% 5% 2%
4%
6%
5%
6%

96%
94%
89%
89% 83%
82%
79%

18+ 18‐24 25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+

Live TV DVR/TiVo DVD/VCR Streaming
Source: CRE Study 2009


Baby boomers over-index in streaming
compared to TV and DVR
Percent of Audience Per Platform

7 7
13
18
26
19
Persons 65 ‐ 99
25 Persons 50 ‐ 64
22
29 Persons 35 ‐ 49
17 Persons 25 ‐ 34
14
15 Persons 18 ‐ 24
9
10
9 Persons 12 ‐ 17
7
9
9 Persons 2 ‐ 11
16
14
8

TV DVR Streaming

Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work. Npower Live + 7 Custom 75% unification, 3/1-3/31/09

Page 16

Daily streaming use peaks throughout
workday; TV/DVR use during primetime
Audience By Day-Part
10,000 140,000

TV Audience (000)
Streaming/DVR Audience (000)

9,000
120,000
8,000
100,000
7,000
6,000 80,000
5,000
60,000
4,000
3,000 40,000
2,000
20,000
1,000
0 0
12:00 PM
1:00 PM
2:00 PM
3:00 PM
4:00 PM
5:00 PM
6:00 PM
7:00 PM
8:00 PM
9:00 PM
10:00 PM
11:00 PM
12:00 AM
1:00 AM
2:00 AM
3:00 AM
4:00 AM
5:00 AM
6:00 AM
7:00 AM
8:00 AM
9:00 AM
10:00 AM
11:00 AM

Streaming DVR TV
Source: Nielsen Video Census, Combined Home and Work. Npower Live + 7 3/1 3/31/09


Streamers transition activity from to work,
however, both fall off in primetime
Audience By Day-Part
10,000
Streaming/DVR Audience (000)

9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

2: M
3: M
4: M
5: M
6: M
7: M
8: M
9: M
10 PM
1: M

11 PM
PM
2: M
3: M
4: M
5: M
6: M
7: M
8: M
9: M
10 AM
1: M

11 AM

12 AM

P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A

0

0
0

00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00

0
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00

0
0
:0

:0
:0
:0

:0
:0
12

Work DVR

Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work. Npower Live + 7 3/1-3/31/09


A small but significant population uses both
DVR and streams video
Percent Of Audience By Media
Segment

DVR Only
20%
35%
Stream Only

Both
27%
19%
Neither



Those populations most active in time shifting
use both internet and DVR
Percent Of Time Shifting Audience
By Media Segment

DVR Only
39%
45%
Stream Only

Both
16%

Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (6/08 – 8/09): Reflects Time Shifting Quintiles 1 and 2


How manyvideo big enough to make
Is online screens do I need?
a difference?
The relationship between online video and TV
viewing

Begin at the beginning:
What are the relative sizes of media?

Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work. Npower Live + 7 3/1-3/31/09


The basics: Online streaming is the
icing on the cake
Minutes Viewing Media

147
159 142
131 192
112

8,205
8,040 7,995 7,792 7,333
6,781

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March
TV Online Streaming



Overall, people who like media…like media
Media Consumption Level By Usage Quintile

Source: Nielsen TV/Internet Convergence Research Panel Reporting

Page 24

The Tool: Convergence panel methodology
• The ‘Behind The Scenes’ Technology
What is Nielsen’s Convergence Panel?
- A panel, separate from Nielsen’s TV Viewership Tracking
People Meter currency panel, where Nielsen Media Research People Meter
both in-home viewing and in-home Full production meter including all active
Internet usage are measured to gauge and passive (A/P) capabilities
cross-platform usage

To date, the panel includes:
- Approximately 1,000 households and
nearly 3,000 persons.
- The panel is made up of a combination
of forced turnover homes from our
National People Meter sample, Local
People Meter sample, homes exiting the
National Hispanic Television Index
sample. It also includes 200 homes Online Behavior Tracking
installed for the field tests used to NielsenOnline NetSight Meter collects streaming and URLs
evaluate the impact of adding Internet Does not collect transactional information or PII
measurement on TV button pushing Collects “Person’s” information via online prompt
compliance.

25

The analysis: Approximating time shift

• 472 Convergence panelists active from November 2008 to March 2009 and
panelists that streamed video during the measurement period

• Most numbers are 6-month average to account for news cycles and new
program introductions

• Share data based on online streaming population in Convergence panel, and
may not equal similar distributions in National People Meter or VideoCensus
samples

• Online video consumption includes all video with a one-second qualifier

Page 26

Less than one-third of streamers have
shifted time from TV to the Internet
Percent Of Audience Shifting Time Share (Streaming Universe)

Postive TV Share
Change
29%
30%
No Change

Positive Online Share
41% Change

Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (11/08 – 3/09): Streaming Population Only


The majority of viewers have very small
shifts in consumption

Nielsen Convergence Panel (11/08 – 3/09): Streaming Population Only


The highest percent of share change is
among kids and their parents
Share Change By Demographic Segment

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Female Male AGE 2 ‐ AGE 12 AGE 18 AGE 25 AGE 35 AGE 50‐ AGE
11 ‐ 17 ‐ 24 ‐ 34 ‐ 49 64 65+

Postive TV Share Change No Change Positive Online Share Change



Shifters in general are viewing more TV
regardless of shift
Media Consumption By Segment

34

212
237
9,827
6,708
5,717

Postive TV Share Change No Change Positive Online Video
Share Change

Average TV Minutes Per Month Average Online Streaming Minutes Per Month



Extended Screen

What?
• Emerging industry trend where cable providers are exploring delivering full
television content (programs and commercials) via the Web
• Different scenarios for different companies – some in-home only, some
also out of home, all locked down securely
• Options for Web-only cable subscriptions discussed
• Also known as “TV Everywhere (Time Warner Cable) and On-Demand
Online (Comcast)
• More questions than answers at this point


Extended Screen
Scenarios
• Video-On-Demand
- Consumers access a library of video content

• Time-Shifted
- Web-based access to digital video recorders
allowing access to record, and also watch
previously recorded content

• Live
- Simultaneous (or near simultaneous) access to
linear television video content

• Downloaded
- Content that is copied down to the computer for
offline access


Conclusions
• Share shift does not exist on a level that can be measured nationally

• Though streaming is relatively small, in the long term, there does appear to
be a shift for some populations to streaming video. This shift does not appear
to be isolated to any specific demographic group, and might yet be the
harbinger for future trends

• The shift from TV to Internet at this point is a very small percentage of time
and given the day part when content is streamed it might have to do with
watching more streaming programming at work where a TV is less likely to be
available

• To the degree that share shifts do exist, the ongoing efforts of the cable
MSO’s to create a cable like environment over the Internet might mitigate any
shift from a revenue perspective.

Page 34

Thank you.
About Nielsen Online

Nielsen Online, a service of The Nielsen Company, delivers comprehensive, independent measurement and analysis
of online and mobile audiences, advertising, video, consumer-generated media, word of mouth, commerce and
consumer behavior, and includes products previously marketed under the Nielsen//NetRatings, Nielsen BuzzMetrics
and Nielsen Mobile brands. With high quality, technology-driven products and services, Nielsen Online enables
clients to make informed business decisions regarding their digital, mobile and marketing strategies.
For more information, please visit www.nielsen-online.com.
Also, visit our blog at www.nielsen-online.com/blog.

About The Nielsen Company
The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and
consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade
shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active
in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit,
www.nielsen.com

Unraveling the Relationship (TV and streaming)

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Unraveling the Relationship (TV and streaming)

Similar to Unraveling the Relationship (TV and streaming) (20)

More from Antonio Wanderley

More from Antonio Wanderley (20)

Unraveling the Relationship (TV and streaming)