Anthony J. Evans
Professor of Economics, ESCP Europe
(cc) Anthony J. Evans 2019 | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
• Using group data to describe the group
• Using group data to infer about the
For estimating a population
To assess the evidence
provided by the data
regarding some claim about
The two main things that we cover in inferential
Both methods are based
distributions, with the
that the sample data
comes from a
Any faults of the
experiment will impact
the validity of the
uncertainty still exists,
outside the model.
• In The X Files episode "D.P.O” five people are seemingly struck by
lightning in the same small town.
• It could be a coincidence. Unlikely events can occur in quick
succession for purely random reasons.
• However Mulder and Scully believe that it is so improbable it isn't
down to chance. Rather, there is something happening that explains
• This is the essence of conducting probability tests - are the events
that we witness the result of chance, or are they evidence that there
is an underlying cause?
• We cannot really ever prove anything, but we can amass evidence
that makes it more and more convincing.
4The X Files, Season 3 Episode 3. Watch here: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/k55jjbj2Ut54zu8Tt3q
• This presentation forms part of a free, online course