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Inferential Statistics

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This presentation forms part of a free, online course on analytics

http://econ.anthonyjevans.com/courses/analytics/

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Inferential Statistics

  1. 1. Inferential Statistics Anthony J. Evans Professor of Economics, ESCP Europe www.anthonyjevans.com (cc) Anthony J. Evans 2019 | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
  2. 2. Overview 2 • Using group data to describe the group Descriptive statistics • Using group data to infer about the population Inferential statistics
  3. 3. Inferential statistics 3 Confidence intervals Confidence intervals Significance tests For estimating a population parameter To assess the evidence provided by the data regarding some claim about the population The two main things that we cover in inferential statistics are: Both methods are based on sampling distributions, with the underlying assumption that the sample data comes from a randomised experiment. Any faults of the experiment will impact the validity of the conclusions. Always remember that uncertainty still exists, outside the model.
  4. 4. X Files • In The X Files episode "D.P.O” five people are seemingly struck by lightning in the same small town. • It could be a coincidence. Unlikely events can occur in quick succession for purely random reasons. • However Mulder and Scully believe that it is so improbable it isn't down to chance. Rather, there is something happening that explains these events. • This is the essence of conducting probability tests - are the events that we witness the result of chance, or are they evidence that there is an underlying cause? • We cannot really ever prove anything, but we can amass evidence that makes it more and more convincing. 4The X Files, Season 3 Episode 3. Watch here: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/k55jjbj2Ut54zu8Tt3q
  5. 5. • This presentation forms part of a free, online course on analytics • http://econ.anthonyjevans.com/courses/analytics/ 5

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