The Economic Imperative


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  • The Economic Imperative

    1. 1. The Economic Imperative Where is the world of work going? The Center for Occupational Employment Information Presents:
    2. 2. Three Aspects of the Imperative The Labor Shortage The Skills Gap The Education Gap
    3. 3. Higher Learning – Higher Earning Source: Census Bureau: U.S. Population by educational attainment, 2004
    4. 4. Skill requirements are increasing Unskilled 60% Skilled 20% Professional 20% Skilled 65% Unskilled 15% Professional 20% 1950 1997 Source: National Summit on 21 st Century Skills for 21 st Century Jobs
    5. 5. New Jersey requirements are higher <ul><li>About 65% of the fastest growing occupations in the nation require some postsecondary education or training compared with 58% for New Jersey. </li></ul><ul><li>By 2012, 44% of all N.J. jobs will require a vocational certificate, associate degree, bachelor’s degree or higher compared with 42% in the nation. </li></ul><ul><li>By contrast, ten percent of the top 50 declining occupations in the nation require postsecondary education or training compared with only 4% in New Jersey. </li></ul>
    6. 6. …but training is not meeting the need <ul><li>While worker educational requirements are increasing, the educational attainment of the U.S. workforce is declining. </li></ul>
    7. 7. 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 Source; Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators 2003 The U.S. is falling behind Percentage of the population with a postsecondary credential
    8. 8. Students Enrolled in Postsecondary (in thousands) Source: UNESCO, 2003 … and the gap is widening +92% 9.4 4.9 India +258% 13.6 3.8 China +15% 15.7 13.7 U.S. % Change 2000 1990
    9. 9. Where is the competitive advantage? Bachelor level engineering degrees -1999 <ul><li>U.S. 61,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Japan 103,000 </li></ul><ul><li>E.U. 134,000 </li></ul><ul><li>China 195,000* </li></ul><ul><li>*Source: Choose to Compete , Computer Systems Policy Project </li></ul><ul><li>If you look at India, China and Russia… even if you discount 90% of the people there as uneducated farmers… you still end up with about 300 million people who are educated. That is bigger than the entire U.S. workforce. </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Bob Herbert, New York Times </li></ul>
    10. 10. The literacy problem <ul><li>Almost half of the nations adult population reads at a level below that expected of the average high school graduate, yet these individuals: </li></ul><ul><li>Make up 39% of the workforce </li></ul><ul><li>Work in low paying, unstable jobs that are disappearing from the economy </li></ul><ul><li>Cannot - without extensive remediation - profit from projected economic growth </li></ul>32% to 30% 16 40% to 49% 20 50% or More 14 Percent of Illiterate Adults Number of States
    11. 11. Fastest growing industries in N.J. Percent change: 2002 - 2012
    12. 12. N.J. employment gains: short-term OJT Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012 7,600 Waiters and Waitresses 8,400 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 8,600 Teacher Assistants 8,800 Home Health Aides 9,200 Child Care Workers 9,200 Receptionists and Information Clerks 11,500 Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 11,800 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 14,600 Retail Salespersons 14,600 Cashiers Change Occupation
    13. 13. N.J. employment gains: moderate OJT Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012 1,500 Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg., Technical & Scientific Products 1,900 Correctional Officers and Jailers 2,600 Construction Laborers 3,100 Sales and Related Workers, All Other 3,700 Dental Assistants 4,900 Social and Human Service Assistants 5,100 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 5,600 Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg., Exc. Technical & Scientific 6,900 Medical Assistants 11,100 Customer Service Representatives Change Occupation
    14. 14. N.J. employment gains: long-term OJT Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012 1,100 Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators 1,200 Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 1,700 Cooks, Restaurant 1,800 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 1,800 Photographers 2,300 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 2,900 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 3,000 Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 3,300 Carpenters 3,400 Electricians Change Occupation
    15. 15. N.J. employment gains: post-secondary Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012 700 Manicurists and Pedicurists 900 Massage Therapists 1,200 Legal Secretaries 1,200 Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 1,500 Computer Specialists, All Other 2,000 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 3,900 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 4,200 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 5,200 Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 6,800 Medical Secretaries Change Occupation
    16. 16. N.J. employment gains: associate’s degree Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012 600 Biological Technicians 600 Respiratory Therapists 800 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 900 Medical Records and Health Information Technicians 1,100 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 1,200 Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 1,400 Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 1,900 Dental Hygienists 4,100 Computer Support Specialists 20,800 Registered Nurses Change Occupation
    17. 17. N.J. employment gains: bachelor’s degree Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012 2,800 Special Education Teachers, Preschool and Elementary School 2,800 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 3,300 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 3,500 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 4,200 Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents 4,900 Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Vocational Education 5,100 Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 5,400 Accountants and Auditors 5,500 Computer Systems Analysts 5,500 Computer Software Engineers, Applications Change Occupation
    18. 18. N.J. employment gains: master’s degree Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012 400 Health Educators 500 Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors 600 Speech-Language Pathologists 600 Mental Health Counselors 700 Educational, Vocational, and School Counselors 800 Instructional Coordinators 800 Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists 1,100 Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers 1,400 Physical Therapists 2,700 Rehabilitation Counselors Change Occupation
    19. 19. Occupations whose workers are aging Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 28.1 Environmental scientists and geoscientists 30.1 Social workers 32.3 Loan counselors and officers 32.4 Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers 44.8 Bus drivers 13.9 All occupations Percent 55 and older Occupation
    20. 20. County highlights
    21. 21. County Highlights - Hudson <ul><li>Manufacturing sector is projected to continue its downward trend, led by apparel manufacturing which will decline at rate of 4.9% per year. </li></ul><ul><li>Industry employment gains will be led by healthcare and social assistance, finance and insurance, and administrative and waste services. These will account for one of every two jobs created from 2002-2012. </li></ul><ul><li>The county has the highest concentration of office and administrative support workers in the State (21.7%) due to significant employment in the finance, insurance and real estate industries. </li></ul>
    22. 22. County Highlights - Hunterdon <ul><li>A relatively small county (50,450 employment in 2002) with a projected annual growth rate of 1.6%. </li></ul><ul><li>Retail trade and health and professional services are, and will continue to be, the county’s largest industries. </li></ul><ul><li>Second only to Mercer in percentage of professional workers (23%) </li></ul><ul><li>Health and social services are county’s fastest growing industries with over a 35% growth rate from 2002-2012. </li></ul><ul><li>Professional business services will increase about 28%. </li></ul>
    23. 23. County Highlights - Mercer <ul><li>The slowest growing county in the Central Region due to large employment in government and the declining manufacturing industries. </li></ul><ul><li>Government employment made up more than one of every four jobs in in 2002 and is projected to continue that trend through 2012. </li></ul><ul><li>Professional jobs will increase by about 10,500 from 2002-2012 (16.5%). </li></ul><ul><li>Has the largest percentage of professional workers (27.5%), mainly due to the high concentration of government employment </li></ul><ul><li>Four of the ten fastest growing occupations in the county are in health services. </li></ul>
    24. 24. County Highlights - Middlesex <ul><li>Second largest county in State (Bergen #1) in total nonfarm payroll employment with over 420,000 in 2002. </li></ul><ul><li>Largest projected employment increase in the State, expecting 55,950 new jobs. </li></ul><ul><li>Middlesex is outpacing the State’s growth in nearly all major Occupational categories </li></ul><ul><li>More than 60% of the job growth is projected to occur in the following three industries: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Administrative & waste services +16,150 </li></ul><ul><li>2. Health care and social assistance +10,200 </li></ul><ul><li>3. Professional and technical services +9,000 </li></ul>
    25. 25. County Highlights - Somerset <ul><li>Third fastest projected growth from 2002-2012 at 17.7%, behind only Gloucester and Ocean. </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing sector is dominated by chemical industry with greater than a 40% share. </li></ul><ul><li>Health care and social assistance industry will grow by more than 6,000 jobs, a 40% increase from 2002-2012. </li></ul><ul><li>Security guards will add 1,200 jobs, an increase over 45%!!! </li></ul>
    26. 26. County Highlights – Union <ul><li>Employment is projected to grow at less than 1% per year. </li></ul><ul><li>The manufacturing sector, third largest among NJ counties, is projected to lose 4,900 jobs from 2002-2012 (-12.2%). </li></ul><ul><li>Only sales occupations will exceed average growth in the state. </li></ul>
    27. 27. N.J. share of U.S. population
    28. 28. Female growth will no longer dominate 1990-2002 2002-2012 Labor force share
    29. 29. Growth for minorities outpaces whites Projected labor force percent change, 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
    30. 30. CJJDA population trends
    31. 31. Older workers are coming back to work Men Women Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – U.S. labor force participation, age 55+
    32. 32. We need to meet the challenge <ul><li>We have an aging workforce. </li></ul><ul><li>We have a growing labor shortage driven by demographics. </li></ul><ul><li>We have a significant number of unemployed persons who do not have the knowledge or skills to become employed. </li></ul><ul><li>Thirty-nine percent of our working adults do not read at the level expected of the average high school student. </li></ul><ul><li>We expect to import millions of skilled foreign workers to meet our labor demand. </li></ul><ul><li>One-third of the immigrants entering our country lack a high school education. </li></ul>