Reliability Prediction Working Group


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Reliability Prediction Working Group

  1. 1. VITA 51 Reliability Prediction Working Group Status – Nov 15, 2006 Charles Falardeau Curtiss Wright Controls Embedded Computing
  2. 2. Status <ul><li>Gerry Thomas, NSWC Crane will be retiring in Dec. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many thanks to Gerry for initiating VITA 51 and his vision for improving the consistency and traceability of Reliability Prediction (MTBF) data for Electronic Modules used in Defense and Aerospace. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lori Bechtold, Boeing, hosting biweekly working meetings using webex/telecons </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Real time viewing and editing of the draft on the web </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Participation includes DSCC, NSWC Crane, Curtiss-Wright Controls, GE Fanuc, Foxconn, Moog, Radstone, Raytheon and Boeing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Main doc 80% complete </li></ul><ul><li>51.1 MIL-HDBK-217 Subsidiary Spec: 60% </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developing default Pi-factors, common adjustment factors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Progress on PiQ tables for capacitors, resistors, semiconductor </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Additional Interest – Honeywell, Northrup Grumman </li></ul><ul><li>Certification.. Registration.. Evaluation ..Self Assessment ??? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Community of Practice approach to be considered instead </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We are confirmed to present at CMSE in early March 07 </li></ul>
  3. 3. Agenda, Thursday 16 Nov Meeting <ul><li>Topics: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Purpose and focus of Vita 51, are we on track (Charter) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How do we secure a following, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Concept of Community of Practice Enrollment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Marketing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drive Decisions on: (Charles) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Section 2 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mixing Methods </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Registration ..self Assessment, or create COP membership </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>VITA 51 Custodian (DSCC…VITA) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Time for ballot </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Intent of Subsidiary Specs </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Document Walkthrough and edit (Lori) </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Minutes, Thursday 16 Nov Meeting <ul><li>How do we secure a following: Top down or bottoms up. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Introduced and discussed the merits of a Community of Practice. This would be a formal collection of Subject Matter Experts across the industry. Go ahead with COP and also secure the support of the DSPO.(Dan’s action) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Concept of Community of Practice Enrollment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Good discussion around the concept of COP and focus on SME membership. Also initiated activities to secure Marketing logo and name. VITA Marketing accepted to provide assistance and research. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Decisions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Disposition of Section 2 Failure mechanisms: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>With the concept of COP, it was found that section 2 contains relevant information but will be moved to annex C, we will also delete the telcordia vs 217 table. This is in keeping that VITA51 do not intend to compete with or assess the effectiveness of other methods. It will however inform the reader on Failure mechanisms. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mixing Method </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1. stay silent </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2. allow mixing different models but force the disclosure </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>3. Allow vendor data, qual data or other empirical data but no other models unless it is specified in the sub spec. Option 3 was chosen. With the concept of COP and a yearly scheduled update mechanism, any practitioner will be able to contribute and recommend alternate methods in future revisions of the Sub spec. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Certification ..Registration ..self Assessment or create COP membership: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>It was decided that we would create a COP and that the registration process would focus on the practitioner, not the capability of a company or site. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VITA 51 Custodian (DSCC…VITA): VITA controlled, talk to Ray </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>VITA has accepted to manage the COP database. Need to provide Ray with details. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Release 51.0 ad 51.1 separately or together ..when: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Targeting Q1 07. Release together. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How do we position the Subsidiary Specification </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Originally, future sub specs would have been created to include modifiers to other tools or models </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>New intent to is to focus on 51.1 only and update it once a year with best practices submitted by the COP membership </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>51.1 will initially be 217 with modifiers….It will then become a collection of best practices as recognized by the Subject Matter experts in the industry. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Minutes, Thursday 16 Nov Meeting <ul><ul><li>Document Walkthrough and edit (Lori) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Updated sections of the main Specification…Lori to redistribute </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Revised the Registration questions. Made them member specific to the practitioner and not company/site specific. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Lori will target to hold webinars every week in order to have docs ready for ballot second week in Jan </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When and how to ballot: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Decided to double down effort and have both spec submitted for ballot the second week in Jan prior to Bus and Board </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Decided to Ballot with Vita only at first. The intent is to secure the COP before we formally submit to AINSI. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Next Moves </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Prepare slideware for Bus and Board and CMSE with the new focus (Charles) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reissue the Draft 51.0, expand 51.1 to include all section of 217 and conduct weekly meeting (Lori) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Secure DSPO position vis a vis VITA 51 for inclusion in the presentation (Dan) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Purpose and focus of Vita 51, are we on track (Charter): Review the original intent as introduced to VITA by NSWC in Mar 05 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reliability Analysis is fragmented, do not have good traceability </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The COP will ensure the practitioners are registered and understand the content and goals of VITA 51 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Participation and membership list will be made public </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>217 is obsolete and is used in an inconsistent fashion </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We have created an initial specification to include 217 with adjustment factors and made considerations to include empirical data </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Can VITA help provide focus and accountability </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Te COP will ensure continuous focus and provide a forum to bring best practices together </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  6. 6. 217Plus Vs VITA 51 <ul><li>Who is the new Reliability Information Analysis Center (RiAC)? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prior to 2005. RAC contract was held by Alion Science. They trademarked and distribute PRISM. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2005 DTI competed and awarded the RAC contract to Wyle Labs and Quanterion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wyle Labs and Quanterion became RiAC. They have used PRISM as a baseline and added 6 new models and developed a Handbook…the new product is being marketed under to the code name “217Plus”. Launched in July 06 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Alion Science is now known as SRC and continues to distribute PRISM in its original configuration. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Differences between VITA 51 and 217Plus : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VITA 51 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Developed as a consensus based Standard. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Industry/Government participation, (NWSC, CWCEC, Boeing DSCC,, MOOG, Raytheon, SBS, Radstone, …etc) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Not a commercial venture </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Has 3 distinct components. Community of Practice Registration, a revised application of the existing Mil-Hdbk-217 ,methodology approach to include the use of vendor data and field data </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Brings consistency in the application of Mil-Hdbk-217 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Endorsed by NWSC and DSCC as the preparing activity for Mil Hdbk 217 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>217Plus </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Licensed modeling tool </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Funded activity under DTI RAC. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Based on the PRISM tool set, added 6 new models and published a Handbook </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Have plans to improve models on a yearly basis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Discussion between David Nicholls (RiAC) 217plus Product Mgr and VITA 51 Chair Charles Falardeau (Curtiss-Wright Controls) </li></ul>
  7. 7. Contacts - VITA 51 Officers Chair: Charles Falardeau Curtiss Wright Controls 333 Palladium Drive M/S 350 Kanata, Ontario, Canada K2V 1A6 TEL: (613) 599-9199 x5559 Email: Vice Chair: Dan Quearry NSWC Crane Code 6056 Bldg 3334 Crane, IN 47522 TEL: (812) 854-2398 Email: Editor: Lori Bechtold The Boeing Company P.O. Box 3707 MC 45-84 Seattle, WA 98124-2207 TEL: (206) 655-2019 Email: