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Espcrepcceba

  1. 1. Central Coast Regional Economy Report Presentation Jim King JK, Inc.
  2. 2. Central Coast Regional Economy Report <ul><li>Context for Regional Economic Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Comparison of Regional Economic Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Major Industry Sectors in the Central Coast Region </li></ul><ul><li>Industries in the Central Coast Economic Base </li></ul>
  3. 3. Context for Regional Economic Growth
  4. 4. Job Gains 20 Months After Recession Ends 16.9% 6.3% 6.1% 0.3% 12.4% 4.4% 5.3% 4.6% 8.0% -1.1% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1945-1947 1949-1951 1954-1956 1958-1959 1961-1962 1970-1972 1975-1976 1982-1984 1991-1992 2001-2003 (Percent Change in Non-Farm Jobs)
  5. 5. State and National Economy Move Together 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 (Unemployment Rate) United States California
  6. 6. Job Losses Concentrated in Manufacturing -276 -2675 -300 -2512 -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 California United States (Thousands; Jan 01-Aug 03) Nonfarm Manufacturing
  7. 7. Comparison of CA and US Job Losses -1.9% -2.0% -0.2% -1.2% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% Since Jan 01 2000-2003 (Percent Change) California United States
  8. 8. Loss of Manufacturing Jobs -15.6% -15.6% -16.0% -14.7% -14.9% -14.6% -18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Since Jan 01 Aug 00-Aug 03 (Percent Change) California United States Texas
  9. 9. Productivity Growth Rate 2.2% 3.1% 2.0% 6.8% 2.7% 5.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003- 1 2003- 2 (Percent)
  10. 10. Comparison of Regional Economic Growth
  11. 11. Growth in Total Jobs 2000-2003 0.7% 3.2% 4.8% -0.2% -1.2% -6.4% 4.4% 9.2% 4.8% 1.9% 1.5% -8.0% -3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0% Sierra Valley N. Sacramento Sacramento Border N. California Coast SoCal California U.S. Bay Area (Percent Change)
  12. 12. Growth in Total Jobs Jan 01-Aug 03 0.8% 1.0% 3.9% 4.9% 3.4% -9.0% -2.0% -1.9% 4.5% 2.4% -1.6% -12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% Sierra Valley N. Sacramento N. California Sacramento Border Coast SoCal California U.S. Bay Area (Percent Change)
  13. 13. Growth in Total Jobs 1990-2003 15.2% 31.6% 14.6% 11.2% 8.2% 28.7% 25.2% 25.0% 24.9% 20.5% 16.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Sacramento Sierra Border N. Sacramento Valley Coast U.S. N. California California Bay Area SoCal (Percent Change)
  14. 14. Growth in Total Jobs 2000-2003 0.7% 3.2% 4.8% -0.2% -1.2% -6.4% 4.4% 9.2% 4.8% 1.9% 1.5% -8.0% -3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0% Sierra Valley N. Sacramento Sacramento Border N. California Coast SoCal California U.S. Bay Area (Percent Change)
  15. 15. Growth in Total Jobs 0.0% 1.5% 18.7% 20.5% 14.7% -0.2% 17.4% -2.1% 4.2% 16.4% -1.2% 13.1% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1990-1994 1994-2000 2000-2003 1990-2003 (Percent Change) Central Coast California U.S.
  16. 16. Per Capita Income in 2001 $21,317 $22,982 $23,188 $23,785 $30,135 $30,269 $30,413 $30,467 $32,563 $32,950 $45,555 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Valley No. Sac. Valley No. California Central Sierra Sacramento SoCal U.S. Central Coast California Border Bay Area
  17. 17. Per Capita Income 1990-2001 30.2% 34.6% 37.6% 39.5% 42.8% 44.2% 46.0% 48.2% 48.8% 55.4% 56.9% 72.9% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90% Valley Cal CPI SoCal Central Sierra Sac. Valley No. California Central Coast California Sacramento U.S. Border Bay Area (Percent Change)
  18. 18. Change in Unemployment Rate 2000-2003 4.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Bay Area U.S. California Sacramento SoCal No. Sac. Valley Valley Border No. California Central Coast Central Sierra
  19. 19. Unemployment Rate in 2003 13.3% 8.8% 8.3% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Valley No. Sac. Valley No. California Central Coast Central Sierra Bay Area California Sacramento U.S. SoCal Border
  20. 20. Average Wage in 2002 $31,881 $31,891 $32,018 $32,552 $34,631 $42,002 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 California Central Coast Central Sierra San Joaquin Valley Northern Sacramento Valley Northern California
  21. 21. Annual Average Wage Growth 1997-2001 6.1% 5.1% 4.8% 4.6% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 7.4% 5.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Bay Area San Diego California Sacramento Central Coast San Joaquin Valley Northern Sac Valley Los Angeles Central Sierra Northern (Percent)
  22. 22. Major Industry Sectors in the Central Coast Region
  23. 23. Leading Major Industry Sectors 15.5 19.1 93.1 57.4 52.6 49.3 36.8 31.2 22.6 19.5 0 30 60 90 120 All Government Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Svcs. Health Care & Social Assistance Manufacturing Construction Administrative & Waste Svcs. Professional & Technical Svcs. Other Svcs (Except Public Admin.) (Thousands of Jobs in 2002)
  24. 24. Other Major Industry Sectors 1.2 5.1 12.4 7.7 6.6 6.1 12.8 2.9 7.0 8.2 0 3 6 9 12 15 Wholesale Trade Finance & Insurance Information Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Transportation & Warehousing Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises Educational Svcs. Utilities Mining (Thousands of Jobs in 2002)
  25. 25. Above-Average Share in CC 11.3% 0.6% 12.3% 19.9% 10.6% 2.6% 16.5% 7.8% 10.7% 0.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting All Government Accommodation & Food Svcs. Retail Trade Utilities (Percent of Total Jobs in 2002) CC California
  26. 26. Below-Average Share in CC 6.7% 4.2% 2.7% 1.8% 4.1% 6.1% 4.4% 3.4% 11.0% 6.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Information Wholesale Trade Professional & Technical Svcs. Administrative & Waste Svcs. Manufacturing (Percent of Total Jobs in 2002) CC California
  27. 27. Job Growth in Leading Major Industries 1990-2002 -5.1 17.1 12.2 11.5 9.1 8.2 6.0 4.3 2.4 2.1 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 All Government Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation & Food Svcs. Retail Trade Administrative & Waste Svcs. Professional & Technical Svcs. Wholesale Trade Other Svcs. Manufacturing (Thousands)
  28. 28. Job Growth in Leading Major Industries 2000-2002 0.6 0.9 0.3 -3.2 -0.5 1.1 1.8 3.4 4.5 12.3 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting All Government Health Care & Social Assistance Professional & Technical Svcs. Other Svcs (Except Public Admin.) Construction Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Svcs. Administrative & Waste Svcs. Manufacturing (Thousands)
  29. 29. Industries in the Central Coast Economic Base
  30. 30. Central Coast Economic Base 6.1 12.8 19.1 19.5 52.6 57.4 49.3 93.1 22.6 36.8 0 30 60 90 120 All Government Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Svcs. Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Administrative & Waste Svcs. Professional & Technical Svcs. Wholesale Trade Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises (Thousands of Jobs in 2002)
  31. 31. Change in CC Economic Base 1990-2002 2.4 11.5 9.1 4.7 4.3 8.2 4.7 6.0 12.2 17.1 0 5 10 15 20 All Government Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation & Food Svcs. Retail Trade Administrative & Waste Svcs. Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises Construction Professional & Technical Svcs. Wholesale Trade (Thousands of Jobs)
  32. 32. Change in CC Economic Base 1990-1994 6.9 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 -1.0 -5.2 0.7 3.7 1.3 2.9 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation & Food Svcs. Administrative & Waste Svcs. Wholesale Trade All Government Professional & Technical Svcs. Retail Trade Construction (Thousands of Jobs)
  33. 33. Change in CC Economic Base 1994-2000 13.3 6.3 2.3 2.9 3.5 7.5 8.9 8.9 5.9 5.2 0 4 8 12 16 All Government Construction Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Svcs. Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Administrative & Waste Svcs. Health Care & Social Assistance Professional & Technical Svcs. Wholesale Trade Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises (Thousands of Jobs)
  34. 34. Change in CC Economic Base 2000-2002 0.3 0.1 -1.1 -1.2 0.9 0.6 -0.5 3.4 1.8 4.5 -3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 All Government Health Care & Social Assistance Professional & Technical Svcs. Construction Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Svcs. Wholesale Trade Administrative & Waste Svcs. Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises (Thousands of Jobs)
  35. 35. Central Coast Economic Base 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of CC Jobs) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 (Thousands of State Jobs) Econ Base Jobs in CC CC Econ Base Jobs in State
  36. 36. CC Share of California, 2002 2.0% 3.8% 4.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 15.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Accommodation & Food Svcs. All Government Retail Trade Total Jobs Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises Professional & Technical Svcs. Administrative & Waste Svcs. Wholesale Trade
  37. 37. Change in CC LQ as Compared to California 1990-2002 -0.04 -0.05 0.75 -0.09 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.47 0.03 0.04 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises Retail Trade Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Wholesale Trade All Government Professional & Technical Svcs. Administrative & Waste Svcs. Accommodation & Food Svcs.
  38. 38. Change in CC LQ for Top 10 Job Providers with < 50 Jobs in 1990, 1990-2002 12.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 3.0 2.1 3.2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Forest nursery & gathering forest products Hunting & trapping Timber tract operations Animal aquaculture Sheep & goat farming Lime & gypsum product manufacturing Motor vehicle manufacturing Satellite telecommunications Other leather product manufacturing Support activities for rail transportation
  39. 39. Central Coast Economic Base 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% (Share of State Jobs) Econ Base Jobs in CC Share of CA
  40. 40. All Government 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  41. 41. Jobs in Local, State, and Federal Government 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Local government, total State government, total Federal government, total
  42. 42. CC Construction 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  43. 43. Jobs in Construction 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Residential building construction Nonresidential building construction Utility system construction Land subdivision Highway, street, & bridge construction
  44. 44. CC Health Care & Social Services 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  45. 45. Jobs in Health Care & Social Assistance 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Offices of physicians Offices of dentists Offices of other health practitioners Outpatient care centers Medical & diagnostic laboratories
  46. 46. CC Administrative & Waste Services 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  47. 47. Jobs in Administrative & Waste Services 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Employment services Services to buildings & dwellings Investigation & security services Business support services Travel arrangement & reservation services `
  48. 48. CC Retail Trade 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  49. 49. Jobs in Retail Trade 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Grocery stores Health & personal care stores Building material & supplies dealers Department stores Automobile dealers
  50. 50. CC Accommodation & Food Services 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  51. 51. Jobs in Accommodation & Food Services 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Full-service restaurants Traveler accommodation Limited-service eating places Special food services Drinking places, alcoholic beverages
  52. 52. CC Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  53. 53. CC Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Support activities for crop production Vegetable & melon farming Fruit & tree nut farming Greenhouse & nursery production Other crop farming
  54. 54. CC Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  55. 55. Jobs in Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Management of companies & enterprises
  56. 56. CC Professional & Technical Svcs. 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  57. 57. Jobs in Professional & Technical Svcs. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Architectural & engineering services Legal services Scientific research & development services Accounting & bookkeeping services Management & technical consulting services
  58. 58. Wholesale Trade 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands of Jobs) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% (Share of State Jobs) Jobs Share
  59. 59. Wholesale Trade 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Thousands) Grocery & Related Product Wholesalers Electronic markets & agents & brokers Misc. nondurable goods merchant wholesalers Machinery & supply merchant wholesalers Commercial equip. merchant wholesalers

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