Environmental Scan


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Environmental Scan

  1. 1. NMC <ul><li> Environmental Scan </li></ul><ul><li>2006 </li></ul>
  2. 2. What is environmental scanning? <ul><li>Environmental scanning has to do with external events, trends, and relationships that have potential for impacting an organization. </li></ul>
  3. 3. The purpose of environmental scanning is … <ul><li>... to help organizations create a preferred future. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Purpose of the NMC scan <ul><li>to provide a cornerstone for NMC's strategic planning process </li></ul><ul><li>to provide perspectives on NMC's operating environment </li></ul>
  5. 5. Purpose of the NMC scan <ul><li>to identify challenges and opportunities with potential for impacting NMC </li></ul><ul><li>to create strategic advantage in NMC's changing marketplace </li></ul>
  6. 6. Components of NMC's environmental scan <ul><li>1. Macro change forces affecting American society and NMC's environmental context </li></ul><ul><li>2. NMC constituent interviews </li></ul><ul><li>3. NMC staff interviews </li></ul><ul><li>4. Issues facing community colleges </li></ul><ul><li>5. Focal Points for NMC </li></ul>
  7. 7. An important caveat <ul><li>Answers describe the present; </li></ul><ul><li>questions define the future. </li></ul>
  8. 8. You are here
  9. 9. The macro scan <ul><li>The macro scan provides information and implications related to change forces that are having a significant impact on American society and NMC's operating environment. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Future Scan categories <ul><li>Economics – the workplace, the workforce, and the exchange of value </li></ul>
  11. 11. Future Scan categories <ul><li>Demographics – vital human statistics </li></ul>
  12. 12. Future Scan categories <ul><li>Social Values & Lifestyles – the beliefs and behaviors of people </li></ul>
  13. 13. Future Scan categories <ul><li>Advances & Discoveries – machines, processes, and techniques which enhance or replace the human element </li></ul>
  14. 14. Future Scan categories <ul><li>Organizational Contexts – how people organize to relate, share, achieve, and compete </li></ul>
  15. 15. Future Scan categories <ul><li>Political Climate – the governing context in which people and organizations pursue their objectives </li></ul>
  16. 16. Future Scan categories <ul><li>Public Opinion – commonly held perceptions and understandings </li></ul>
  17. 17. Future Scan categories <ul><li>World Affairs – interactions of groups and nations which affect the political climate and world marketplace </li></ul>
  18. 18. Radical Change <ul><li>We are transitioning from a period of rapid change to one of radical change. </li></ul><ul><li>Most change will be triggered by external forces. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Radical Change <ul><li>You can’t run from it. </li></ul><ul><li>You can’t hide from it. </li></ul><ul><li>And two of our tested strategies – running faster and working harder – can be strategies of diminishing returns. </li></ul>
  20. 20. The changing nature of the workforce <ul><li>More than one-half of Americans work full-time. </li></ul><ul><li>The educational attainment level of the workforce continues to increase. </li></ul>
  21. 21. The changing nature of the workforce <ul><li>The gap between the unemployment rates of those without a high school diploma and those who have completed college continues to increase. </li></ul>
  22. 22. The changing nature of the workforce <ul><li>Only about one-fourth of workers displaced from their jobs find full time work that pays at least what their previous job paid. </li></ul>
  23. 23. The changing nature of the workforce <ul><li>Six of the ten industries projected to grow the fastest are health related, and three are computer related. </li></ul><ul><li>Employment is down in jobs that can be automated or performed with lower labor costs. </li></ul>
  24. 24. Implications <ul><li>Employers will seek quality, short term relationships with workers. </li></ul><ul><li>To effectively compete in the global marketplace, employers will pressure workers to reduce their salary and fringe benefit costs. </li></ul>
  25. 25. Implications <ul><li>Two education-related markets will expand: </li></ul><ul><li>1. workforce development and training to accommodate the changing nature of work </li></ul><ul><li>2. continuing education of the already educated </li></ul>
  26. 26. Implications for NMC <ul><li>Community college enrollments typically expand as unemployment levels increase. </li></ul>
  27. 27. Implications for NMC <ul><li>NMC should assess how it can effectively and efficiently serve more markets that are smaller. </li></ul>
  28. 28. Implications for NMC <ul><li>NMC should assess the market for continuously enhancing the capacity of those who already hold college credentials. </li></ul>
  29. 29. Aging of the Population <ul><li>We are getting older – average life expectancy is about 78 years. </li></ul><ul><li>A 65 year old male can expect to live 17 more years; a 65 year old female can expect to live 20 more years. </li></ul>
  30. 30. Aging of the Population <ul><li>People ages 84-95 make up the fastest growing demographic group in America. </li></ul><ul><li>Some forecasters say that people may live as long as trees by mid-century. </li></ul>
  31. 31. Some implications <ul><li>Social, medical, and infrastructure expenditures will increase. </li></ul><ul><li>Fountain of Youth products proliferate </li></ul><ul><li>More people will think about their exercising and consumption lifestyles. </li></ul>
  32. 32. Some more implications <ul><li>Retirement will be redefined. </li></ul><ul><li>Economics will provide dynamic resistance to social and political entitlements. </li></ul><ul><li>The aging of society will profoundly affect enrollment, staffing, and community support. </li></ul>
  33. 33. Machines <ul><li>Machines are getting smaller … and much smarter. </li></ul><ul><li>Most communication that takes place is now between machines. </li></ul><ul><li>The convergence of computers and biology holds promise of machines that can think. </li></ul>
  34. 34. Three implications <ul><li>Manufacturing, as we have known it, will be revolutionized. </li></ul><ul><li>Fewer human workers will be needed. </li></ul><ul><li>More non-machine work will be done by lower paid employees—wherever they live. </li></ul>
  35. 35. Knowledge work <ul><li>The continuum </li></ul><ul><li>data – information – knowledge – wisdom </li></ul>
  36. 36. Two implications <ul><li>Fewer people will have meaningful work. </li></ul><ul><li>There will always be a job, says Pulitzer Prize-winning author Thomas Friedman in The World Is Flat , for those who are special , specialized , anchored , and really adaptable. </li></ul>
  37. 37. Communication Technology <ul><li>We will move information at the speed of light, and we will be “connected” 24/7/365. </li></ul>
  38. 38. Three implications <ul><li>People will be pushed to make more decisions in increasingly shorter periods of time. </li></ul><ul><li>People's thinking won’t be as good as it used to be. </li></ul><ul><li>People will long to be “ dis connected.” </li></ul>
  39. 39. Public Opinion <ul><li>Shaped primarily by the media and blogs, public opinion will become more diverse and more volatile. </li></ul>
  40. 40. Two implications <ul><li>More ideas and solutions will find simultaneous favor and disfavor. </li></ul><ul><li>Anyone can be an activist, and one person can appear to be a groundswell of 100,000 or a million … or more. </li></ul>
  41. 41. Education <ul><li>As always, education be the key to the future. </li></ul><ul><li>But not education as we know it! </li></ul>
  42. 42. One implication <ul><li>Learning will be delivered in nontraditional ways in nontraditional places at nontraditional times by nontraditional teachers to nontraditional students. </li></ul>
  43. 43. Boundary Breaking <ul><li>Geographic, political, and organizational boundaries are becoming increasingly meaningless. </li></ul>
  44. 44. Three BIG implications <ul><li>The domination of world economics and </li></ul><ul><li>politics will change. </li></ul><ul><li>Different cultures will have to agree on </li></ul><ul><li>the values necessary for a civilized world. </li></ul><ul><li>The global economy will define the power </li></ul><ul><li>of nations, and determine the nature of </li></ul><ul><li>work and the quality of life everywhere. </li></ul>
  45. 45. NMC Constituent Scan Addressing technology needs is a concern of business leaders throughout the region.
  46. 46. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><li>Recruiting highly skilled technical </li></ul><ul><li>people to the Grand Traverse region is </li></ul><ul><li>proving difficult. </li></ul>
  47. 47. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><li>The majority of constituents </li></ul><ul><li>interviewed believe Michigan is in decline. </li></ul>
  48. 48. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><li>Constituents are concerned with the </li></ul><ul><li>region's growth, and the lack of cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>and coordination that is needed to manage it. </li></ul>
  49. 49. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><li>Issues affecting the region are </li></ul><ul><li>polarizing the constituency, and little is </li></ul><ul><li>being done to host meaningful discussions </li></ul><ul><li>that address important issues. </li></ul>
  50. 50. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><ul><li>Educational systems in the area must </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>address globalization, particularly in regard </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>to teaching students foreign languages. </li></ul></ul>
  51. 51. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><li>The region must take action to </li></ul><ul><li>capitalize on its geographic location and </li></ul><ul><li>water resources while assuring safeguards </li></ul><ul><li>for the environment. </li></ul>
  52. 52. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><li>Demographic and economic changes </li></ul><ul><li>impacting the area are testing established </li></ul><ul><li>political entities. </li></ul>
  53. 53. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><li>Successes related to tourism </li></ul><ul><li>seem to have blinded area leaders to </li></ul><ul><li>other opportunities that have potential for </li></ul><ul><li>enhancing the region. </li></ul>
  54. 54. NMC Constituent Scan <ul><li>One consequence of NMC's </li></ul><ul><li>responsiveness to the community is that </li></ul><ul><li>some community members perceive the </li></ul><ul><li>College as spreading itself too thin and </li></ul><ul><li>compromising its primary mission. </li></ul>
  55. 55. NMC Staff Scan <ul><li>There are opportunities for NMC in </li></ul><ul><li>areas ranging from water resources to the </li></ul><ul><li>arts to providing support for area </li></ul><ul><li>entrepreneurs. </li></ul>
  56. 56. NMC Staff Scan <ul><li>Michigan is perceived by NMC staff </li></ul><ul><li>as a State that may not have the political </li></ul><ul><li>capacity to &quot;turn things around.&quot; </li></ul>
  57. 57. NMC Staff Scan <ul><li>The immediate challenges to Michigan </li></ul><ul><li>and the Traverse City area are education, the </li></ul><ul><li>economy, and workforce capacity. </li></ul>
  58. 58. NMC Staff Scan <ul><li>The central issues facing area </li></ul><ul><li>governments are managing growth while </li></ul><ul><li>protecting the environment and the quality </li></ul><ul><li>of life in the area. </li></ul>
  59. 59. NMC Staff Scan <ul><li>NMC has a good reputation and </li></ul><ul><li>is well positioned to take a leadership role </li></ul><ul><li>in the community. </li></ul>
  60. 60. NMC Staff Scan <ul><li>NMC staff members believe that the </li></ul><ul><li>College is enhancing its capacity to lead in </li></ul><ul><li>both the political and educational arenas. </li></ul>
  61. 61. NMC Staff Scan <ul><li>NMC staff members believe the College </li></ul><ul><li>should be a significant partner in workforce </li></ul><ul><li>development and community enhancement. </li></ul>
  62. 62. NMC Staff Scan <ul><li>NMC staff members feel &quot;let down&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>by Michigan's political process. </li></ul>
  63. 63. Community College Scan <ul><li>Increases in tuition costs, decreases in </li></ul><ul><li>Pell Grant funding, and the growth of </li></ul><ul><li>private student loans are three forces </li></ul><ul><li>impacting community colleges. </li></ul>
  64. 64. Community College Scan <ul><li>There are obstacles preventing </li></ul><ul><li>community college students from seamlessly </li></ul><ul><li>transferring to four-year institutions. </li></ul>
  65. 65. Community College Scan <ul><li>Community college expenditures for </li></ul><ul><li>remediation are increasing. (Remediation </li></ul><ul><li>now costs community colleges $50 million </li></ul><ul><li>annually in Michigan.) </li></ul>
  66. 66. Community College Scan <ul><li>More consumers of education are </li></ul><ul><li>becoming &quot;consumers of the whole [of </li></ul><ul><li>education].&quot; </li></ul>
  67. 67. Community College Scan <ul><li>Community colleges need to question </li></ul><ul><li>the long-term future of an Associate's Degree </li></ul><ul><li>in an environment where a Bachelor's Degree </li></ul><ul><li>is increasingly considered the entry level </li></ul><ul><li>credential. </li></ul>
  68. 68. Community College Scan <ul><li>Community colleges need to assess </li></ul><ul><li>the viability of their basic operating model </li></ul><ul><li>(a place-based, community-focused </li></ul><ul><li>institution providing comprehensive </li></ul><ul><li>programming leading to an Associate's </li></ul><ul><li>Degree). </li></ul>
  69. 69. Community College Scan <ul><li>The target markets for community </li></ul><ul><li>colleges are shifting as the middle class </li></ul><ul><li>shrinks and the gap between the rich and </li></ul><ul><li>the poor continues to widen. </li></ul>
  70. 70. Community College Scan <ul><li>Open access—a community college </li></ul><ul><li>success story—has diversified the classroom </li></ul><ul><li>and placed instructors at the front line in a </li></ul><ul><li>continuing effort to help all students succeed. </li></ul>
  71. 71. Community College Scan <ul><li>Community colleges must be more </li></ul><ul><li>open to change and guard against solving </li></ul><ul><li>new problems with old solutions. </li></ul>
  72. 72. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>NMC must clearly articulate its vision. </li></ul>
  73. 73. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>NMC must strive to be a leader in the </li></ul><ul><li>delivery of quality learning using technology </li></ul><ul><li>and flexible scheduling. </li></ul>
  74. 74. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>NMC must continue educating </li></ul><ul><li>legislators in regard to the purpose and </li></ul><ul><li>value of community colleges. </li></ul>
  75. 75. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>NMC should consider positioning itself </li></ul><ul><li>as the training arm of every area business. </li></ul>
  76. 76. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>Within the scope of the College's </li></ul><ul><li>mission, partnerships with area organizations </li></ul><ul><li>and businesses should be expanded. </li></ul>
  77. 77. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>NMC should investigate how instruction </li></ul><ul><li>can be embedded in the workplace to better </li></ul><ul><li>serve employees and employers. </li></ul>
  78. 78. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>NMC should consider developing a </li></ul><ul><li>rapid response team to address inquiries </li></ul><ul><li>from potential customers. </li></ul>
  79. 79. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>NMC should focus its identity. </li></ul>
  80. 80. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>NMC should continue its pursuit of </li></ul><ul><li>coherent articulation agreements with four- </li></ul><ul><li>year institutions. </li></ul>
  81. 81. NMC Focal Points <ul><li>&quot;Anything to do with water&quot; and </li></ul><ul><li>nanotechnology applications are two areas </li></ul><ul><li>ripe for NMC risk-taking and innovation. </li></ul>
  82. 82. An important thought <ul><li>... about entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics </li></ul>
  83. 83. An important thought <ul><li>Entropy is the degradation of the matter and energy in the universe to an ultimate state of inert uniformity. </li></ul><ul><li>Entropy represents the potential for doing work, the capacity for taking action, or the degree of confusion and disorder associated with any physical or information activity. </li></ul>
  84. 84. An important thought <ul><li>The Second Law of Thermodynamics posits that all observed natural processes generate entropy. </li></ul><ul><li>Entropy will increase in any system that cannot communicate in an ordered fashion with other systems or environments external to itself. </li></ul>
  85. 85. An important thought <ul><li>And, so, to comprehend and cope with our environment, we must continually challenge our concepts of reality. </li></ul><ul><li>Adapted from Col. John Boyd in Destruction and Creation (1976) in Boyd: The fighter pilot who changed the art of war </li></ul><ul><li>(Coram, 2002) </li></ul>
  86. 86. An important caveat <ul><li>Answers describe the present; </li></ul><ul><li>questions define the future. </li></ul>