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Where will self-driving vehicles take us? Scenarios for the development of automated vehicles with Sweden as a case study

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Four scenarios for the development of self-driving vehicles, with Sweden as a case study. The scenarios is the result of a research project where 40 experts from more than 20 organizations participated.

Published in: Automotive
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Where will self-driving vehicles take us? Scenarios for the development of automated vehicles with Sweden as a case study

  1. 1. Future Scenarios for the development of self driving vehicles in Sweden Anna Pernestål Brenden, ITRL Ida Kristoffersson, VTI Lars-Göran Mattsson, ITRL
  2. 2. Thanks to Bräcke Kommun Carvia Chalmers Drive Now Ericsson ITRL Kairos Future NEVS Nobina Regeringskansliet Scania SEVS for Autonomous Drive Stockholm Stad Taxi Stockholm Trafikanalys Trafikverket Uber Rise Viktoria Volvo VTI KTH Scania Sustainable City Solutions Drive Sweden
  3. 3. Policy and governance • International competition between regions for lead in SDV development/deployment. (Importance of laws and policys on industry localization increases) • Sweden is well know test bed – has international focus. • Increased hunt for new growth areas (increased busines / economy policy focus) • More ambitious susatinability goals • Standardization for information / data exchange in EU. • Proactive economy/business policy (to support development) on national and EU level. City life • Urbanisation increases (including regional areas). • Region enlargement. • Increased competition for street and city space. • Less parking places. Trends in transport & mobility • Public transport complemented by self-driving feeder buses • Private leasing of cars increases • Automation to decrease costly labour hours • Increased acceptance for use of policy instruments within transport • Focus on trafic safety • Experimental development of new types of vehicles. • More vehicles become level 1 & 2 SDV • Increased fossil fuel free propulsion Demography & Life Style • Search for smooth life in a connected world. • More diversified interpretation of ”quality time”. • Flexible and boundless work life • Social media’s influence on actors and solutions increases • Increased e-commerce • Young people take driver’s licens later (in urban regions), but elderly drives more. • People generally trust new technology. Business models • A messy landscape of everyday services – more/new actors. • Focus shift from product to solution. • ”MaaS” provides new business models. • Profitable to be sustainable. • Difficult to predict who will be the most important actors in mobility industry. Technology Development • Technology development continues at a high rate. • 5G, GPS, reach tipping points. • 100% of vehicles connected.
  4. 4. No shared solutions breakthrough Shared solutions breakthrough Ambitious and proactive urban policy & planning Ambitious but slow and careful urban policy & planning Same, same, but different Sharing is the new black Follow the path What you need is what you get
  5. 5. No shared solutions breakthrough Ambitious and proactive urban policy & planning Same, same, but different - Consumption as before, but sustainable production - Congestion fees and policies - Small electric vehicles - Advanced driver assistance systems - Automated parking - Parking shuttles - Bus platooning
  6. 6. Same, same, but all the differences
  7. 7. Shared solutions breakthrough Ambitious and proactive urban policy & planning Sharing is the new black - Integrated public/private mobility services - People trust public sector - Standardizations - Solutions optimized on society level - Public sector owns data - ”Big brother sees everything”
  8. 8. Sharing is the new black
  9. 9. No shared solutions breakthrough Ambitious but slow and careful surban policy & planning Follow the path - Asia leads the development of SDV, slower development in Europe - Owning rather than sharing - Autonomous rather than cooperative systems - Advanced driver assistance systemes - Individual decisions based on digital decision support
  10. 10. Follow the path
  11. 11. Shared solutions breakthrough Ambitious but slow and careful surban policy & planning What you need is what you get - Customer insight (based on data) is key success factor - Explosion of new tailored shared mobility solutions - Diversity - Few large companies dominate - Focus on cities
  12. 12. What you need is what you get
  13. 13. Report: http://bit.ly/2todFF8 Project web page: https://www.itrl.kth.se/research/projects/future-scenarios-for Contact: Anna Pernestål Brenden, pernestal@kth.se
  14. 14. Thanks to Bräcke Kommun Carvia Chalmers Drive Now Ericsson ITRL Kairos Future NEVS Nobina Regeringskansliet Scania SEVS for Autonomous Drive Stockholm Stad Taxi Stockholm Trafikanalys Trafikverket Uber Rise Viktoria Volvo VTI KTH Scania Sustainable City Solutions Drive Sweden

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