Keynote to TIES 2008

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Keynote to TIES 2008

  1. 1. Climate Change: Blessing or Curse? Implications for Tourism The International Ecotourism Society Vancouver, October 28 th , 2008
  2. 2. Capacity & Focus
  3. 3. My Scope & Purpose Today <ul><li>To say thank you –TIES, COTA </li></ul><ul><li>To frame the challenge </li></ul><ul><li>What’s really happening? </li></ul><ul><li>What has to be done? </li></ul><ul><li>To envision a “new” tourism </li></ul>
  4. 4. Sources of Inspiration <ul><li>Rarely do we find men who willingly engage in hard, solid thinking. There is an almost universal quest for easy answers and half-baked solutions. Nothing pains some people more than having to think. Martin Luther King </li></ul>
  5. 5. Sources of Inspiration <ul><li>“ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” </li></ul><ul><li>George Orwell </li></ul>
  6. 6. My Role Today <ul><li>Revolutionary? </li></ul><ul><li>Provocateur? </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunist? Change Agent? </li></ul><ul><li>I just don’t want you to miss this opportunity! </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>A Crisis du Jour? </li></ul>
  8. 8. Something’s Wrong <ul><li>“ Climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen” Sir Nicolas Stern </li></ul><ul><li>“ The food crisis of 2008 has revealed market failures at every link in the food chain.” Economist, April 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>This is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. You've seen the sudden deterioration of perceived credit quality of financial institutions around the world; you've seen the sudden failure of major institutions . John Lipsky, Head of the IMF </li></ul>
  9. 9. Something’s Wrong <ul><li>These crises didn’t happen overnight </li></ul><ul><li>They’ve been brewing for a long time </li></ul><ul><li>They were based on deceit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We lied to each other </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We even lied to our computers…. </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Something’s Wrong
  11. 11. Something’s Wrong <ul><li>These crises didn’t happen overnight </li></ul><ul><li>They’ve been brewing for a long time </li></ul><ul><li>They were based on deceit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We lied to each other </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We even lied to our computers…. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We lied to ourselves </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ This time it’s different” …..dot com bubble </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This ship is unsinkable </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We lied and trust fell out the window </li></ul>
  12. 12. So What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change? <ul><li>Environmental awareness and “eco-literacy” </li></ul>
  13. 13. What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change? “ Climate change is the synthesis of all other environmental issues; energy inefficiency, pollution, species extinction, water use, desertification, urban sprawl…many of the most pressing environmental issues are related intimately to the problem of climate change” Canadian Environmental Grantmaker’s Network
  14. 14. What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change? <ul><li>Environmental awareness and eco-literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse gas emissions can be measured and reduced </li></ul>
  15. 15. What Does Tourism Contribute? The Tourism Contribution Source: UNWTO
  16. 16. The Global Travel & Tourism Responsibility 2020 BAU CO 2 =2586 million 1990 CO 2 = 673 million 2020 Target CO 2 = 471 million 2.115 billion tons
  17. 17. What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change? <ul><li>Environmental awareness and eco-literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse gases can be measured </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing our Carbon Footprint is good for business </li></ul>
  18. 18. Positive Effects of Reducing Carbon it’s healthy! <ul><li>Reduces operational costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Waste processing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Insurance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capital </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Engages employees – improves recruitment </li></ul><ul><li>Attracts investment </li></ul><ul><li>Protects Brand, enhance reputation </li></ul><ul><li>Increases resilience </li></ul>
  19. 19. Enormous Possibilities <ul><li>… .opportunity to lay the foundations of a new form of growth that can transform our economies and societies. </li></ul><ul><li>Let us demonstrate for all, particularly the developing world, that low-carbon growth is not only possible, but that it can also be a productive and efficient route to overcome world poverty. Lord Stern, 2008 </li></ul>
  20. 20. What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change? <ul><li>Eco-awareness and eco-literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse gases can be measured </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing carbon is good for business </li></ul><ul><li>It’s forcing us to tell the truth about sustainability </li></ul>
  21. 21. What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change? <ul><li>Eco-awareness and eco-literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse gases can be measured </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing carbon is good for business </li></ul><ul><li>It’s forcing us to tell the truth about sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>It’s forcing us to examine our unexamined assumptions and re-think our worldview </li></ul>
  22. 22. Why is Climate Change so Challenging for Tourism? <ul><li>Invisible </li></ul><ul><li>Incremental </li></ul><ul><li>Solutions change form not function </li></ul><ul><li>Scope – Tragedy of the Commons </li></ul><ul><li>Time-frame </li></ul><ul><li>Requires system changes – unprecedented levels of innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Requires Collaboration across silos, between sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Aviation challenge </li></ul>
  23. 23. What’s the Real Problem? We’re living beyond our credit limit!
  24. 24. We’ve Only One Is this sub-prime real estate?
  25. 25. But we Need Three to Support Our Current Population & Current Lifestyles A Mortgage that = 300% value of house & no known buyers! We haven’t had to pay for our life support services our economic system is flawed
  26. 26. <ul><li>We have to re-think our relationship with our host </li></ul><ul><li>Every year we destroy 44 million acres of forest… </li></ul><ul><li>Destroy 100 million acres of farmland…. </li></ul><ul><li>Lose 24 billion tons of top soil </li></ul><ul><li>Use 160 billion tons more water than is produced by rain </li></ul><ul><li>In Canada, we’ve destroyed one fishery and may destroy another! </li></ul>So It’s Not Just Climate Change!!
  27. 27. <ul><li>1. Value </li></ul>Elephants in the Room! http://www.gumtree.com/london/59/20699859.html
  28. 28. A Question of Value <ul><li>INTRINSIC VALUE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What does it cost? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How necessary is it? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>EXTRINSIC VALUE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How much can I charge? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How much will you pay? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SCARCITY VALUE </li></ul><ul><li>OWNERSHIP </li></ul>
  29. 29. What do we Value?
  30. 30. Liquid Value <ul><li>If the Unit of measure =16 fluid ounces, which has the most extrinsic value? </li></ul><ul><li>Bottled water? </li></ul><ul><li>Starbucks Coffee? </li></ul><ul><li>Exxon gas? </li></ul><ul><li>Price of crude? </li></ul><ul><li>Tap water? </li></ul><ul><li>Unit of atmosphere? </li></ul>
  31. 31. Liquid Value <ul><li>If the Unit of measure =16 fluid ounces, which one has the most extrinsic value? </li></ul><ul><li>$1.50 Bottled water </li></ul><ul><li>$4.00 Starbucks Coffee </li></ul><ul><li>$ 0.52 Exxon gas </li></ul><ul><li>$0.24 Price of crude oil at $80 a barrel </li></ul><ul><li>? Clean Tap water </li></ul><ul><li>? Unit of atmosphere (clean, pollution free air) </li></ul>
  32. 32. <ul><li>There’s only one - place </li></ul><ul><li>There’s only one - experience </li></ul>The Essence of Tourism
  33. 33. <ul><li>There’s only one - place </li></ul><ul><li>There’s only one - experience </li></ul>The Essence of Tourism
  34. 34. <ul><li>There’s only one - place </li></ul><ul><li>There’s only one - experience </li></ul>The Essence of Tourism When what we sell is UNIQUE and SCARCE, why discount?
  35. 35. The Scarcer It becomes…
  36. 36. How do we cost, value & price experiences? <ul><li>Who owns the mammals? Who protects them? </li></ul><ul><li>Who owns the landscape? Who tends / stewards the land? </li></ul><ul><li>What’s a forest worth? </li></ul><ul><li>What’s a life support system worth? </li></ul><ul><li>Who pays for use or non-use? </li></ul><ul><li>Who receives income for protection? </li></ul><ul><li>Is tourism costing the earth? </li></ul><ul><li>How do we justify cheap travel? </li></ul><ul><li>Is travel a right or a privilege? </li></ul>
  37. 37. <ul><li>2. Growth </li></ul>Three Elephants in the Room!
  38. 38. <ul><li>More airplanes = </li></ul><ul><li>More airports </li></ul><ul><li>More freeways </li></ul><ul><li>More parking lots </li></ul><ul><li>More airport hotels </li></ul><ul><li>More kiosks </li></ul><ul><li>More security </li></ul><ul><li>More hamburger stands… </li></ul>Volume Growth
  39. 39. <ul><li>In the natural world all growth is checked. It’s about change & transformation </li></ul><ul><li>Sustaining as in perpetuating won’t work </li></ul><ul><li>Sustaining as in more of the same won’t work </li></ul><ul><li>Sustaining as in “smart growth” might work if we knew what that meant </li></ul><ul><li>Butler’s destination cycle </li></ul>A Chance to Understand What Sustainability Really Means Hoe many of you have sons?
  40. 40. <ul><li>3. Our Mental Wiring </li></ul>Three Elephants in the Room! We’re all brainwashed! The world we have created is a product of our thinking; it cannot be changed without changing our thinking. Albert Einstein
  41. 41. <ul><li>Travel vs Tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Business vs Leisure </li></ul><ul><li>Adventure travel </li></ul><ul><li>Ecotourism </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainable </li></ul><ul><li>Responsible </li></ul><ul><li>Geo tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Aboriginal, culinary tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Fight or Flight? </li></ul><ul><li>Naming </li></ul><ul><li>Labeling </li></ul><ul><li>Definitions </li></ul><ul><li>Applying value judgments </li></ul><ul><li>Creating Separations </li></ul>Our Mental Wiring
  42. 42. We think as if we were an industrial machine From Machines to Systems Machines can be taken apart, and reassembled Machines are complicated and static Systems are complex and dynamic Systems can adapt Their character emerges
  43. 43. When we’re really a network AWARENESS AND IMAGINATION ARE EVERYTHING WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET or WHATYOU GET IS WHAT YOU SEE WHAT LENSES ARE YOU WEARING?
  44. 44. We’ve planned as if we were an Industry Link: www.theicarusfoundation.typepad.com
  45. 45. When We’re Really a Swarm <ul><li>“ It turns out that .. a collection of small, simple agents with limited intelligence , local decision-making capability, and a communication path to nearby peers can outperform a large centralized processor. </li></ul><ul><li>Moreover, a decentralized system has several important advantages over a centralized one, most notably robustness and flexibility.” </li></ul>
  46. 46. And Everything is Connected!
  47. 47. And Everything is Connected!
  48. 48. And Everything is Connected!
  49. 49. <ul><li>Climate Change & Tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Parks & protected Areas </li></ul><ul><li>Indigenous Peoples & Local Communities </li></ul><ul><li>Green Operations & Technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Policy & Guidelines </li></ul><ul><li>Conservation </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul><ul><li>Marketing & Media </li></ul><ul><li>Interpretation & Education </li></ul>A Mindset at Work at this event www.comstock.com
  50. 50. Thoughts For The Future! <ul><li>PLEASE,PLEASE give up the labels and the definitions- leave ECO in ECONOMY where it belongs! </li></ul><ul><li>Unify & simplify the message and the means </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tourism cares </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Good Tourism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tourism For Good </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Taking Care is Good For Business </li></ul></ul><ul><li>INCENTIVISE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Take a lesson from slime mould </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The destination that ….. </li></ul></ul>
  51. 51. Thoughts For The Future! <ul><li>Encourage an ecological mindset with every encounter with guest, employee, investor, stakeholder </li></ul><ul><li>Show the value in non-development and offer to become steward and nurture ecosystem services – it will pay! </li></ul>
  52. 52. Thoughts For The Future! <ul><li>Slow down and slow your customers down! </li></ul><ul><li>Engage the locals </li></ul><ul><li>Go virtual when appropriate </li></ul><ul><li>… and finally…… </li></ul>
  53. 53. Remember what business we are really in! <ul><li>Recreation = to re-create </li></ul><ul><li>Vacation = to empty </li></ul><ul><li>Holiday = holy day, to make whole </li></ul><ul><li>Hospitality = to heal </li></ul><ul><li>Renewal </li></ul><ul><li>Transformation </li></ul>Re-generation: that’s OUR business!
  54. 54. Thank You! www.theicarusfoundation.com www.icarusfoundation.typepad.com [email_address] +44 1544 388 400

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