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Trends and signals


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Trends and signals

  1. 1. Sakariina Heikkanen <ul><li>Senior Lecturer in Tourism </li></ul>
  2. 2. Future Work Shop <ul><li>International Trends in Tourism </li></ul>
  3. 3. Forecasting the future <ul><li>We need to forecast the future in order to make quick decissions in a rapidly changing global environment. </li></ul><ul><li>More and more companies have taken the systematic way of monitoring the environment in order to foresee the future. </li></ul><ul><li>We are living in the furure right now. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Vacation House of the Future <ul><li>Xxxx </li></ul>
  5. 5. Concepts <ul><li>Future Sciences / Future Studies </li></ul><ul><li>Future </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast, foresee, foretell, predictions </li></ul><ul><li>Megatrends </li></ul><ul><li>Signals (weak signals, hot signals) </li></ul><ul><li>… .certain, uncertain, censequence, assumption, random, guess, affection, reflection, figure out, change, progress, regress, control, planning, choice, expectation, decisions, time span, focus, wish, futurology, foresight….. </li></ul><ul><li>School of the future: </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  6. 7. Future Sciences <ul><li>The future, in the linearic time span, is the part of the line, that has not happened yet. </li></ul><ul><li>The opposite, the past, has happened already. </li></ul><ul><li>Between these two is the present time, that is currently happening. </li></ul><ul><li>The future science is investigating the present in the futuristic perspective. </li></ul><ul><li>The future trends are evaluated and estimated in order to make good decisions in the present moment. </li></ul><ul><li>In Finland, The Committee for the Future , deals with the future related issued and decisions. The Committee conducts research associated with futures studies, including their methodology. </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  7. 8. Re Signals CounterCurrent Megatrends Mainstream Trends Waves
  8. 9. Trends ja megatrends <ul><li>Trends are right here right now. Often just passing by. i.e. fashion clothes, hobbies.. </li></ul><ul><li>Megatrends can be part of the whole direction in the development. Globalisation is an example of a megatrend. </li></ul><ul><li>Typically, you may look into a megatrend and divide it hierarchically into smaller trends: (Technological development  network services  discussion forums  behaviour and slang  weak signals) </li></ul><ul><li>The future becomes present in some way and this cannot be controlled. </li></ul><ul><li>The process of change is inevitable. </li></ul><ul><li>The only permanent and certain thing in the world is the change. </li></ul>
  9. 10. Megatrends and signals <ul><li>Megatrends are strong powers in our time that can be influenced very little or not at all. </li></ul><ul><li>The weak signals are closely related to megatrends and they can be developed into megatrends. </li></ul><ul><li>Weak signals are not trends but could become trends. </li></ul><ul><li>Weak signals are especially fascinating because it is believed that their perciever is in the better position as they are aware of threats and take advantage of opportunities. </li></ul><ul><li>Weak future signal is a kind of primary symptom that becomes stronger by uniting with other signals. </li></ul>
  10. 11. … weak future signals <ul><li>From the entrepreneuers perspective the weak signal could be: </li></ul><ul><li>• a rumour, idea, observation, a small article that affects the company or its environment. </li></ul><ul><li>• it’s a new and surprising </li></ul><ul><li>• typically it’s difficult to notice whether it is a threat or an opportunity for the company </li></ul><ul><li>• often underestimated </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding the present is essential to be able to understand and investigate the future. The future is in peoples’ dreams, fears, wishes & hopes. By acknoledging these thoughts one can also see into to the future. ‎‎(Haapala & Aavameri 2008:61.)‎ </li></ul>
  11. 13. Megatrends? <ul><li>Dixon : Urbanisation, unities, communities, radicalism ja ethicalism. </li></ul><ul><li>Yeoman: Globalisation and localisation  micro and macro  People respond to globalisation of cultures and economies by looking to their own identities. </li></ul><ul><li>Jensen: Dream Society – We re living the time from information society to the dream society. People experience the strong need to slow down . This creates new values in life. </li></ul><ul><li>People naturally love stories. In the dream sociaty all services and products need good stories to be consumed. </li></ul><ul><li>Daniel Pink: People are serching for the truth and meaning of life. The need for self-realization grows. </li></ul><ul><li>Self conscience –economy is one of the trends in our time.  Charity, responsibility, and holistic sustainable way of doing business is essential in the future. </li></ul>
  12. 14. In the tourism perspective... <ul><li>If we choose a few trends that have been estimated to became major issues, what does it mean for the tourism / service industry... </li></ul><ul><li>1. Self definition, self-realization  looking for one self, looking for their own identity </li></ul><ul><li>2. Communiality (collective community) love & care for others grow </li></ul><ul><li>3. Self – conscience driven economy </li></ul>
  13. 15. 1. The need for self-realization = Individuality <ul><li>What could this mean in tourism? </li></ul><ul><li>What do you have to take into account? </li></ul>
  14. 16. Individualism <ul><li>Indentity crises? </li></ul><ul><li>Therapies, empathy, life coach..TRANSFORMATION </li></ul><ul><li>Many identities? Multi-Consumer-Identities... </li></ul><ul><li>Individual services </li></ul><ul><li>Tailored services </li></ul><ul><li>Status </li></ul><ul><li>Learning new skills </li></ul><ul><li>Being the first </li></ul><ul><li>Communities </li></ul><ul><li>Social groups </li></ul><ul><li>Family events </li></ul><ul><li>Winning one self... </li></ul><ul><li>Tailored experiences to meet changing attitudes and beliefs! </li></ul><ul><li>Individual way of shopping? </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  15. 17. 2. Communialism and caring for others <ul><li>Family & friends, hobbies, isms, powerful connections </li></ul><ul><li>Group spirit </li></ul><ul><li>Need for belonging </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual communities </li></ul><ul><li>Adopting chickens, adopting god children... </li></ul>
  16. 18. <ul><li>Consumers will vote by consuming certain products and services </li></ul><ul><li>Companies need to choose their philosophies and what / who they choose to support. </li></ul><ul><li>Minorities: cultural, racial, religions, values, sexual orientation etc. </li></ul><ul><li>‎ </li></ul>
  17. 19. What kind of threats and oppotunities the growing need for communialism may create?
  18. 20. <ul><li>Threat for extreme movements (i.e. Political). </li></ul><ul><li>It’s important not to forget minorities. Tolerance! </li></ul><ul><li>Minorities open up new opportunities i.e. skills, knowledge, consumers, languages, perspectives. </li></ul>
  19. 21. 3. Self-conscience driven economy <ul><li>Self-conscience economy is a wider concept than the traditional corporates responsibility is, although it also includes the latter. </li></ul><ul><li>Self-conscience economy is based on human rights issues’ where as the corporate resposnibility is usually based on the company’s point of view. </li></ul><ul><li>It is implemented in three ways: Charity projects, following decent business manners, doing the business in a holistic way. </li></ul><ul><li>Some companies choose to support families, some make the effort to preserve cultures, or some may sponsor youth clubs or minorities. </li></ul><ul><li>The future world is not so brand centered but rather human centered. </li></ul>
  20. 22. ollo <ul><li>Sustainability usually correlates with competiviness </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional economical indicator has been GDP </li></ul><ul><li>AccountAbility created an indicator that measures the responsible competitiveness: Responsible Competitiviness Index (RCI)  it helps responsible businesses to improve their performance and build economic competitiveness, social progress and sustainability. </li></ul><ul><li>The concept of gross national happiness (GNH) was developed in an attempt to define an indicator that measures quality of life or social progress in more holistic and psychological terms than gross domestic product (GDP). </li></ul>
  21. 23. <ul><li>Slow down  </li></ul><ul><li>Downshifting </li></ul><ul><li>Slow food, slow life, slow city, slow office, slow library, slow design slow travel.. </li></ul>
  22. 24. House of the future
  23. 25. Sources: <ul><li>Dixon, Trick (1998) Futurewise. Six faces of global change. HarperCollins Publishers. London.‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Florida, Richard (2006) Luovan luokan pako. Talentum. Helsinki. ‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Haapala, Jaana (2008) ‎Omatuntotalous / haastajina Jaana Haapala & Leena Aavameri. ‎ Talentum. Helsinki.‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Honkanen, Antti (2004) Menneisyyden tulevaisuus. Postmodernit matkailuteoriat ja vapaa-ajan ‎matkailun muutokset eräissä Euroopan unionin jäsenvaltioissa vuosina 1985 ja 1997. Keskustelua ja ‎raportteja No 5. Matkailualan verkostoyliopisto. Savonlinna ‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Jensen, Rolf (1999) Dream Society. How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform ‎Your Business. Blacklick, OH. ‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Kajaste, Kimmo (1998) Saatteeksi arvojen maailmaan. Teoksessa Kajaste, Kimmo (toim.) Arvomme ‎yhteiskunnassa. Edita. HKI. ‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Leveälahti, Samuli (2001) Modernista postmoderniin. Matkailun toimintaympäristön muutos ‎lähitulevaisuudessa. Kauppa- ja teollisuusministeriön tutkimuksia ja raportteja. Markkinaosasto. Helsinki.‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Mannermaa, Mika (1999a) Tulevaisuuden hallinta. Skenaariot strategiatyöskentelyssä. WSOY. Porvoo. ‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Mannermaa, Mika (1999 b) Tulevaisuudentutkimus. Miksi, mitä ja miten? Teoksessa Tuleva tuhat. Metsä, ‎Maija (toim.) Tilastokeskus. Helsinki, ss. 25-42. ‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Mannermaa, Mika (2004) Heikoista signaaleista vahva tulevaisuus. WSOY. Helsinki. ‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Pine, B. & Gilmore, H. (1999) The Experience Economy. Work is Theathre & Every Business a Stage. ‎Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts. ‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Silva, Sissi (2006) Valppaus on Valttia. Heikot Signaalit löytyvät läheltä. Talentum. Helsinki.‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Wilenius, Markku (2004) Luovaan talouteen. Kulttuuriosaaminen tulevaisuuden voimavarana. Edita. ‎Helsinki.‎ </li></ul><ul><li>Yeoman, Ian (2008) Tomorrow’s Tourist. Scenearios & Trends. Elsevier. Oxford. </li></ul>
  24. 26. <ul><li>Libraries of the Future </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Tulevaisuuden vaateshoppailu: </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Tulevaisuuden koulu </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Huomisen hotelli </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>