Market Strategy
                                                                                                          ...
Market Strategy




           Result season - growth headed towards historical levels

           A common thread binding...
Market Strategy




           Large Cap Picks
           Bharti Airtel                                        (CMP: Rs.28...
Market Strategy




           Maruti Suzuki                                   (CMP: Rs.1,275/ TP: Rs.1,694/ Upside: 33%)
...
Market Strategy




                 It also has one of the highest Fee income amongst PSU banks (1.2% of assets vs.
     ...
Market Strategy




           Y/E             Sales    OPM      PAT      EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales...
Market Strategy




           Jagran Prakashan                                   (CMP: Rs.109/ TP: Rs.160/ Upside: 47%)

...
Market Strategy




           Small Cap Picks
           FAG Bearings                                      (CMP: Rs.555/ ...
Market Strategy




           JK Tyre & Industries                               (CMP: Rs.172/ TP: Rs.267/ Upside: 55%)

...
Market Strategy




                                           Angel Model Portfolio
       Sector        Company         ...
Stock Watch | May 2010
Company Name            Reco           CMP        Target    Mkt Cap        Sales (Rs cr)         OP...
Stock Watch | May 2010
Company Name             Reco          CMP        Target    Mkt Cap       Sales (Rs cr)          OP...
Stock Watch | May 2010
Company Name            Reco         CMP        Target    Mkt Cap          Sales (Rs cr)          O...
Stock Watch | May 2010
Company Name                        Reco                          CMP              Target          ...
Market Strategy




                                            Disclaimer
                                            Thi...
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
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Angel Broking Market Strategy May 2010

  1. 1. Market Strategy May 2010 Angel Portfolio Euro crisis behind us Sector Weight % Stocks The EU and IMF have agreed to set up an almost US$1tn line of credit for Auto & 7.0 Maruti, Fag troubled EU nations, which should have a similar similar effect as the US Federal Ancillaries Bearings, Reserve’s TARP package in restoring confidence in financial markets. This massive JK Tyres step follows the US$147bn bailout package for Greece on 2nd May, 2010 to Banking 28.0 SBI, Axis Bank, prevent it from defaulting on its public debt. In return, Greece had to agree to ICICI Bank, reduce its fiscal deficit to 3% by 2014. Greece's fiscal deficit had risen to almost HDFC Bank 14% in 2009 and public debt was as high as 115% (US$400bn), while domestic FMCG 3.0 ITC savings were abysmal at about 5.5% - necessitating the bailout. Hotels 3.0 Taj GVK Greece's problems are symptomatic of its high median age of 42 and the Infra & 18.0 L&T, Reliance Infra, resulting low savings rate of 5.5%. In our view, a country with a high median age Cap Goods Madhucon Projects, has two options to improve growth - if it is a net exporter of capital then on the IVRCL Infra, back of its strong currency it can run a higher fiscal deficit to support growth. The Jyoti Structures other option is to devalue its currency to increase exports as a driver for GDP Media 2.0 Jagran Prakashan growth. Oil & Gas 14.0 Reliance Industries Pharma 4.0 Dishman Pharma, In case of Greece, till it is part of the EU, currency devaluation is not an option. In Lupin such a situation, even though it does not have its own strong currency, having a Metals 2.0 Electrosteel Castings higher fiscal deficit on the strength of the Euro would have been a viable option, Real Estate 3.0 Anant Raj Industries had it been acceptable to other EU nations. But in its current form, unlike the US Software 12.0 Infosys, TCS, bailout packages last year, this bailout comes with substantial strings attached, Tech Mahindra, requiring stringent belt-tightening like public sector wage cuts, sharp increase in Mphasis tax rates, cut in pension payments and raising of retirement ages, which we Telecom 4.0 Bharti Airtel believe would have a detrimental impact on domestic demand in the country. Given its small size (less than 3% of EU GDP and 0.6% of global GDP), the Top Picks burden on EU to support its fiscal imbalances appear manageable. Therefore, we Company CMP TP believe eventually, domestic dissent notwithstanding, the stronger EU nations may Bharti Airtel 287 360 end up relaxing the fiscal targets as well, in the larger interest of maintaining financil and political stability. Portugal faces a similar situation, with its GDP less ICICI Bank 876 1,166 than 2% of EU GDP and 0.4% of global GDP. As far as Spain and Italy are Maruti Suzuki 1,275 1,694 concerned, in our view they have better fundamentals (savings rate of 22% and Tech Mahindra 712 1,168 16% and current account deficit of 5% and 3% respectively) and, with confidence SBI 2,226 2,631 getting restored in the financial markets, they are unlikely to actually draw down Anant Raj 120 196 materially on the bailout funds. Dishman Pharma 217 311 Key Economic Data for 2009 (% of GDP) Electrosteel Castings 47 72 Current Ac Deficit Fiscal Deficit Savings Public Debt IVRCL Infrastructure 159 240 Greece 10.1 10.7 5.5 113.4 Jagran Prakashan 109 160 Iceland 8.6 13.5 10.0 95.1 Jyoti Structures 157 220 Ireland 2.3 13.0 13.1 63.7 Italy 2.6 5.1 16.6 115.2 Taj GVK 154 240 Portugal 8.4 6.7 11.3 75.2 Greenply 181 291 Spain 4.7 7.9 21.9 50.0 FAG Bearings 555 712 UK 1.5 14.0 13.5 68.5 JK Tyres 172 267 US 2.6 11.8 9.9 52.9 Source: CIA World Factbook, Angel Research Investment period – 12 Months Price as on May 7, 2010 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.
  2. 2. Market Strategy Result season - growth headed towards historical levels A common thread binding the fourth quarter results declared so far is that most sectors are seeing indications of growth rates recovering to historical levels. Tier 1 IT companies are guiding for 15%+ topline growth, the banking sector is seeing a revival in credit growth towards 20% levels, high order book to sales in infrastructure and cap goods is pointing towards pick-up in execution growth, justifying our overweight view. On the other hand, margins are already correcting to normalized levels in FMCG and cement, justifying our underweight stance. Overall, we expect GDP growth to increase to an estimated 8.5- 9% over FY2011-12E, driving a healthy 21% CAGR in Sensex Earnings. Assigning 17x to FY2012E Sensex EPS, we arrive at a Sensex target of 21,000 by March 2011. Model Portfolio: Banking and Infrastructure key top-down calls; interesting bottom-up calls in several sectors Infrastructure: Valuations are attractive following the significant under- performance on execution concerns. However, we expect execution growth to accelerate to 17%+ yoy on capital availability, political will and strong order pipeline. Midcaps like IVRCL Infra and Madhucon look especially attractive due to potential upside from subsidiary valuations. Banking: Core earnings are expected to accelerate due to increasing credit and fee Income and declining NPAs. Moreover, in a rising interest rate environment, banks like SBI and HDFC Bank with strong CASA are relatively better placed. Pharma: We have given higher weightage to non-Sensex Pharma companies such as Lupin and Dishman Pharma due to company-specific positive business prospects. Auto: In this quarter, we have introduced some interesting stories in the Mid-cap Auto Ancillary space, viz. FAG Bearings and JK Tyres. IT: Similarly, we have introduced two of the smaller Tier 1 players viz. Mphasis (superior growth outlook) and Tech Mahindra (cheap valuations of 10.6x FY2012E EPS vs. 20x-22x for top players). In the ensuing pages we have discussed 15 of our Top Picks that are expected to significantly outperform the Sensex. We have chosen the stocks from across sectors including large, mid and small caps such as SBI, Tech Mahindra, Electrosteel Casting, Greenply, etc. May 2010 2
  3. 3. Market Strategy Large Cap Picks Bharti Airtel (CMP: Rs.287/ TP: Rs.360/ Upside: 25%) Bharti continues to maintain its leadership status in customer and revenue market share helped by strong subscriber addition (33.7mn in FY2010) and high ARPU of Rs253 (Industry average of Rs164). The competition (price war) is unlikely to intensify further as the cost of operation for new players are high and unsustainable. We believe Bharti with high EBIDTA/minute of Rs 0.16 is relatively placed better than its peers. Valuations for Zain are perceived as expensive but would still be value accretive on account of financial leverage from the Leveraged Buy Out structuring of the deal. Bharti is currently trading at 11.5x FY12E EPS, a significant discount to its historical average of 26x and Sensex P/E of 14.5 and hence we maintain a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 42,773 35.3 8,350 22.0 18.6 13.0 2.3 7.3 2.6 FY2012E 47,328 35.6 9,449 24.9 17.9 11.5 2.0 6.4 2.3 ICICI Bank (CMP: Rs.876/ TP: Rs.1,166/ Upside: 33%) The bank is well-positioned to gain market share on the back of substantial branch expansion (210 branches added during last 12 months, about 875 more in next 12-18 months) as well as strong Capital Adequacy at 19.4% (Tier-I at 14.2%). Net Interest Margins of the bank are expected to improve on the back of increase in CASA ratio to 40% (29% in FY2009). With an improving economic environment, NPA losses are expected to start declining. The Bank has also done lower restructuring of loans than PSU Banks (10% of net worth vs. 40%+ for most PSU Banks). The stock is trading at an attractive FY2012E P/BV of 1.7x and hence we recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Op Inc. NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%) (%) (x) (x) FY2011E 18,207 2.5 5,000 44.8 483.1 1.1 11.5 19.5 1.8 FY2012E 22,269 2.5 6,765 60.7 518.1 1.3 15.0 14.4 1.7 May 2010 3
  4. 4. Market Strategy Maruti Suzuki (CMP: Rs.1,275/ TP: Rs.1,694/ Upside: 33%) Given India's low car penetration (12 per 1,000 vs. 21 per 1,000 in China) and with PPP-based Per Capita estimated to approach the empirically-observed inflection point for car demand of US$5,000 over the next 4-5 years, we expect 13% CAGR in domestic volumes over FY2010-12E. Maruti has a sizeable competitive advantage over foreign entrants due to its widespread distribution network (2,767 service and 681 sales outlets). Moreover, with Suzuki Japan making Maruti a manufacturing hub for small cars, to cater to increasing global demand caused by rising fuel prices and stricter emission standards, we estimate 18% CAGR in export volumes over FY2010-12E. We believe attractive valuations of 12x FY2012E EPS due to recent underperformance provide an entry point for investors looking to play the India consumer story. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 33,593 11.3 2,695 93.3 19.2 13.6 2.5 7.7 0.8 FY2012E 39,238 11.3 3,060 105.9 17.8 12.0 2.1 6.3 0.6 Tech Mahindra (CMP: Rs.712/ TP: Rs.1,168/ Upside: 64%) Restructuring deal with BT ensures compensatory volumes; Muted pricing terms may enhance with an improvement in the client's financial health. Sustained volume traction from non-BT clients (CQGR of 16.1% over 1QFY2006- 3QFY2010) continues to provide revenue growth momentum, margin improvement, geographical diversification and reduced client concentration to the company, covering the decline in the top account. Positive news flow from Satyam in the form of client retention, new deal wins and favorable settlement with Upaid provides comfort on the future business prospects. The stock is trading at a substantial 60% discount (after deducting value of Satyam Stake) to Infosys on a 1-year forward P/E vs. a 5-year average discount of 20% and an FY2012E EV/Sales of 1.8x (vs. Peer average 3.5x) and hence we maintain a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales* March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 4,989 24.0 763 58.3 24.9 12.2 2.6 8.6 2.1 FY2012E 5,704 23.0 876 67.0 22.0 10.6 2.0 7.9 1.8 Note: *Valuations after adjusting Satyam State Bank of India (CMP: Rs.2,226/ TP: Rs.2,631/ Upside: 18%) A key competitive advantage for SBI is its consistent increase in market share of savings deposits (increased from 20.5% in FY2007 to 23.5% by December 2009), leveraging its huge trust factor through faster branch expansion (9.5% CAGR v/s 2-5% for most PSBs). May 2010 4
  5. 5. Market Strategy It also has one of the highest Fee income amongst PSU banks (1.2% of assets vs. about 0.8-0.9% for peers in 9MFY2010), owing to its strong corporate and government business relationships. The Bank is expected to comfortably absorb asset quality pressures and we see this as a short-term concern which has been over-discounted. Moreover, it is trading at an attractive P/BV of 1.3x FY2012E (excluding the non- banking subsidiaries) vs. its 5-year average of 1.6x and hence we recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Op Inc. NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%) (%) (x) (x) FY2011E 45,173 2.7 11,171 176.0 1,163.2 0.9 16.9 12.6 1.9 FY2012E 53,966 2.7 15,389 242.4 1,353.5 1.1 20.3 9.2 1.6 Mid Cap Picks Anant Raj Industries (CMP: Rs.120/ TP: Rs.196/ Upside: 60%) Almost all of ARIL's land bank (872 acres) is exclusively located in the NCR within 50km of Delhi, with approximately 525 acres in Delhi. This land bank has been acquired at an historical average cost of Rs300/sq ft. We expect ARIL's two super premium Residential projects of Hauz Khas and Bhagwandas, located in the heart of Delhi, to drive its near-term operational visibility and help register Rs600cr Profit over the next three years. Further, ARIL has 70% pre-lease commitments at its Manesar IT Park, coupled with five hotels getting operational by FY2011E which will improve rental visibility. ARIL is trading at a 48% discount to its NAV. The stock is trading at 6.8x FY2012E EPS and 0.8x FY2012E P/BV and hence we recommend Buy on stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 657 67.3 372 11.8 9.7 10.1 1.0 6.4 4.2 FY2012E 1,143 73.9 555 17.6 12.9 6.8 0.8 4.4 2.8 Dishman Pharma (CMP: Rs.217/ TP: Rs.311/ Upside: 43%) Dishman has incurred organic capex of Rs300cr in the last three years towards expansion of existing facilities at its Bavla unit and building the China and HPAPI facilities. Post all these facilities coming on-stream FY2011E onwards, Dishman would strengthen its ties with the Global Innovators leading to stable Revenue flow over the long run. Further, Revenues from the Abbott-Solvay contract, which constituted 16% of FY2009 Sales, have also started normalising from 3QFY2010 onwards with up-tick in Eprosartan volumes. Dishman is currently trading at attractive valuations of 9.0x FY2012E earnings and hence we recommend Buy on the stock. May 2010 5
  6. 6. Market Strategy Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 1,236 24.7 160 19.7 17.6 11.0 1.8 8.0 2.0 FY2012E 1,478 25.3 194 23.9 18.3 9.0 1.5 6.5 1.6 ElectroSteel Castings (CMP: Rs.47/ TP: Rs.72/ Upside: 53%) Electrosteel Castings (ECL) is venturing into steel-making through its subsidiary Electrosteel Integrated (EIL), which is setting up a 2.2mn tonne steel plant expected to be commissioned by FY2012E. Further, ECL plans to list EIL to raise ~Rs300cr, which is likely to unlock value for ECL. ECL's backward integration initiatives through allocation of coking coal mines are expected to result in expansion of EBITDA Margin by 1,304bp over FY2009-12E. The company is also awaiting final environmental clearance for its iron ore mine, which will further lower costs, but has not been factored in our estimates. We recommend a Buy on the stock, valuing the Core business at 8x FY2012E FDEPS and its investments in the Steel business at 1x Book Value. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 1,706 26.2 211 5.6 12.8 8.4 0.8 5.7 1.5 FY2012E 1,818 28.0 249 6.6 13.6 7.1 0.7 5.0 1.4 IVRCL Infrastructure (CMP: Rs.159/ TP: Rs.240/ Upside: 51%) IVRCL has a robust Order book of Rs21,500cr mainly on account of pick up and early financial closures in road segment. This would lend revenue visibility and execution ramp up inspite of the current Andhra Pradesh crisis. Moreover, IVRAH has raised money by monetising land (Rs63cr) and NCD's (Rs150cr). This would help funding the recently won BOT road projects. The stock has underperformed its peers mainly on account of higher AP exposure resulting in concerns over execution. However, we believe that higher than expected order inflow from other segments (read road) would mitigate this short term concern. IVRCL is trading at an attractive valuations (Adj. P/E of 7.7x FY2012E), hence we maintain a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 7,570 9.4 323 11.6 13.9 13.7 1.8 9.4 0.9 FY2012E 8,741 9.5 357 12.9 13.3 12.3 1.5 8.9 0.8 May 2010 6
  7. 7. Market Strategy Jagran Prakashan (CMP: Rs.109/ TP: Rs.160/ Upside: 47%) Post the economic recovery, Jagran Prakashan is likely to post up-tick in its advertising revenues (17% CAGR during FY2010-12E) owing to its strong foothold in the Hindi belt, increased focus on local advertising, rising colour inventory and an expected ad-rate hike of 8-10% in the coming months. Benign Newsprint cost (modeled in 8-10% hike) coupled with cost rationalization measures, Rupee appreciation and lower losses in new initiatives (OOH and Event Management to achieve break-even in FY2011E) are likely to boost operating margins (modeled in 90bp rise during FY2010-12E). Jagran maintained its 75%+ dividend payout even in a tough year like FY2009 where most of its peers slipped. At the CMP, Jagran is available at 13.6x FY2012E Earnings (~0.75x PEG) which is highly attractive given is 18% Earnings CAGR, high return ratios and strong leadership position. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 1,092 29.7 201 6.7 33.6 16.2 5.0 10.4 3.1 FY2012E 1,267 30.2 240 8.0 38.4 13.6 4.5 8.8 2.7 Jyoti Structures (CMP: Rs.157/ TP: Rs.220/ Upside: 40%) Jyoti Structures (JSL) being one of the top three players in the transmission EPC space in India would continue to ride high on back of massive investments lined up in the power sector of the country. JSL has a healthy order book of Rs4,030cr (1.9x FY2010E revenues), which provides good revenue visibility and cushions it from short-term order fluctuations. Besides, unlike peers, the large domestic presence (with exports constituting around 5% of order backlog) which has price variation clause, helps to insulate margins from input price fluctuations and volatile currency movements. Currently, the stock is trading at attractive valuations of 11x and 9.3x its FY2011E and FY2012E EPS respectively. We recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 2,508 10.9 116 14.2 20.9 11.0 2.1 5.9 0.6 FY2012E 2,908 10.8 139 16.9 20.7 9.3 1.8 5.2 0.6 May 2010 7
  8. 8. Market Strategy Small Cap Picks FAG Bearings (CMP: Rs.555/ TP: Rs.712/ Upside: 28%) With increasing mechanisation, demand for bearings is expected to exceed overall IIP growth in India. Consequently, the Industrial Segment (which accounts for almost 50% of the Indian Bearings market) offers immense growth opportunity for the Bearings industry. Moreover, the Bearings Segment has a direct correlation with Auto Sector growth, which is expected to grow at around 10% per annum over the next 2-3 years. The stock is currently trading below its average historical valuations, at 9.3x CY2011E EPS and 1.4x CY2011E BV (vs. average of 2x 1-year forward BV). Further, we believe FAG Bearings scores well over its peers and we believe that it is a good long-term investment pick, in view of its strong financials. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Dec (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) CY2010E 1,148 15.0 85 51.3 17.1 10.8 1.6 4.9 0.7 CY2011E 1,012 15.4 99 59.4 17.0 9.3 1.4 4.1 0.6 Greenply Industries (CMP: Rs.181/ TP: Rs.291/ Upside: 60%) GIL is foraying into the lucrative, high-growth MDF market, with the largest MDF plant in India (1,80,000m3/yr capacity), while continuing its strong expansion in laminates (88% capacity expansion), that is estimated to drive 25% CAGR in sales over FY2010-12E. GIL has leading plywood and laminates brands, supported by ad-spend as high as 3.3% of total sales (around 10% of laminates sales). The company also has the largest distribution network of over 15,000 dealers in this industry. These advantages underpin the strong RoE profile of the company's brand-driven business model (20% over FY2010-12E). The stock is trading at an attractive P/E of 5.0x FY2012E (as against its historical range of 3.3-9.3x 1-year forward EPS) and hence we recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 1,044 14.0 63 21.7 17.3 8.3 1.3 5.8 0.8 FY2012E 1,292 15.0 110 36.4 23.3 5.0 1.0 4.3 0.6 May 2010 8
  9. 9. Market Strategy JK Tyre & Industries (CMP: Rs.172/ TP: Rs.267/ Upside: 55%) Given the shortage of radial tyres in the Trucks & Buses Segment, the company is set to fully utilise its enhanced capacity, and that too at higher realisations (80% of India's total truck/bus radial tyre production), driving strong earnings growth and improving RoEs. Further, the Tornel acquisition has already turned profitable in 2QFY10, aided by the restructuring exercise implemented by the company. The stock is available at attractive valuations of 3.2x FY2012E EPS and hence we recommend a Buy. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 5,447 11.0 186 45.5 17.3 3.8 0.6 3.1 0.3 FY2012E 6,049 11.2 219 53.5 17.1 3.2 0.5 2.3 0.2 TajGVK Hotels (CMP: Rs.154/ TP: Rs.240/ Upside: 56%) Robust growth in Foreign Tourist Arrivals (15.1% growth during December 2009- March 2010 vs. -12.7%in the corresponding period last year) and increased domestic tourist activity is enabling hoteliers to overcome the tough phase witnessed in the recent past. Signs of improving demand are visible with occupancy rates staying above ~70% since 3QFY2010 and Average Room Rates rising in 4QFY2010. Considering the revival in demand happening in business destinations like Hyderabad and Chennai, where TAJGVK has presence, we expect the company to be a significant beneficiary in coming quarters. Moreover, in comparison with its peers, the stock trades at an attractive valuation of Rs1cr FY2012E EV/Room and 12.7x its FY2012E EPS. Hence we recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 298 40.6 56 9.0 17.7 17.2 2.8 9.2 3.7 FY2012E 342 42.8 76 12.2 20.3 12.7 2.4 7.2 3.1 May 2010 9
  10. 10. Market Strategy Angel Model Portfolio Sector Company CMP Target BSE 100 Angel Stance (Rs) Price (Rs) Weight (%) Weight (%) Auto / 5.4 7.0 Overweight Ancillaries Maruti Suzuki 1,275 1,694 1.0 3.0 Overweight FAG Bearings 555 712 0.0 2.0 Overweight JK Tyres 172 267 0.0 2.0 Overweight Banking 22.4 28.0 Overweight SBI 2,226 2,631 3.0 7.0 Overweight Axis Bank 1,190 1,459 1.6 8.0 Overweight ICICI Bank 876 1,166 5.3 9.0 Overweight HDFC Bank 1,847 2,220 3.7 4.0 Cement 2.7 0.0 Underweight FMCG 5.8 3.0 Underweight ITC 259 300 3.7 3.0 Underweight Hotels 0.3 3.0 Overweight Taj GVK 154 240 0.0 3.0 Overweight Infra/ 11.5 18.0 Overweight Cap Goods L&T 1,519 1,761 4.4 6.0 Overweight Reliance Infrastructure 980 1,253 0.9 3.0 Overweight Madhucon Projects 154 214 0.0 3.0 Overweight IVRCL Infrastructure 159 240 0.2 3.0 Overweight Jyoti Structures 157 220 0.0 3.0 Overweight Media 0.4 2.0 Overweight Jagran Prakashan 109 160 0.0 2.0 Overweight Metals 10.0 2.0 Underweight ElectroSteel Castings 47 72 0.0 2.0 Oil & Gas 14.9 14.0 Equalweight Reliance Industries 1,034 1,260 9.2 14.0 Overweight Pharma 3.7 4.0 Equalweight Dishman Pharma 217 311 0.0 2.0 Overweight Lupin 1,797 1,863 0.4 2.0 Overweight Power 2,000 2,800 4.3 0.0 Underweight Real Estate 1.9 3.0 Overweight Anant Raj Industries 120 196 0.0 3.0 Overweight Software 11.5 12.0 Equalweight Infosys 2,620 3,088 7.1 4.0 Underweight TCS 742 921 2.5 3.0 Overweight Tech Mahindra 712 1,168 0.0 3.0 Overweight Mphasis 641 872 0.0 2.0 Overweight Telecom 3.2 4.0 Overweight Bharti Airtel 287 360 2.1 4.0 Overweight Others 2.2 0.0 Underweight May 2010 10
  11. 11. Stock Watch | May 2010 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales (Rs cr) OPM (%) EPS (Rs) PER (x) P/BV RoE (%) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Agro Chem/Fertilisers Bayer Cropscien Neutral 774 - 3,057 2,032 2,285 13.6 13.5 44.3 51.0 17.5 15.2 4.2 3.4 26.8 24.7 Jain Irrigation Neutral 961 - 7,305 4,120 4,930 17.5 17.4 40.6 53.4 23.7 18.0 5.2 4.2 23.9 25.6 Rallis India Accumulate 1,465 1,611 1,899 1,050 1,256 19.1 18.4 109.0 134.5 13.4 10.9 3.7 3.0 30.4 30.2 Airlines SpiceJet Buy 54 84 1,300 2,687 3,158 11.9 12.6 7.4 9.3 8.4 6.7 3.6 2.2 172.2 47.0 Auto & Auto Ancillary Apollo Tyres Buy 65 93 3,505 9,003 10,108 12.5 13.1 9.0 11.0 7.2 5.9 1.4 1.2 19.9 19.8 Ashok Leyland Neutral 63 - 7,975 9,063 10,309 10.8 10.7 3.8 4.5 16.7 14.1 3.4 3.1 20.5 21.9 Automotive Axle^ Buy 380 528 626 635 750 13.5 13.5 29.5 35.2 12.9 10.8 2.8 2.5 22.1 22.8 Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,060 - 30,300 13,399 15,050 17.1 17.0 120.3 135.2 17.1 15.2 7.2 5.8 42.2 38.2 Bharat Forge Neutral 259 - 6,124 4,396 5,125 13.1 14.5 10.3 15.5 25.2 16.7 3.0 2.7 14.0 18.2 Bosch# Accumulate 4,984 5,374 15,339 5,846 6,671 17.7 18.3 236.7 268.7 21.1 18.5 4.1 3.6 19.7 19.2 CEAT Buy 132 199 496 3,358 3,730 8.4 8.6 36.9 44.2 3.6 3.0 0.6 0.5 17.0 17.3 Exide Industrie Accumulate 120 132 10,370 4,549 5,282 22.0 21.3 7.1 8.0 16.7 14.9 3.8 3.1 24.5 22.7 FAG Bearings* Buy 562 712 947 1,012 1,148 15.0 15.4 51.3 59.4 10.9 9.5 1.7 1.5 14.5 14.5 Hero Honda Accumulate 1,890 2,085 39,840 17,332 19,009 16.5 16.3 120.3 130.3 15.7 14.5 7.9 6.6 37.9 33.4 JK Tyre & Ind Buy 172 267 813 5,447 6,049 11.0 11.2 45.5 53.5 3.8 3.2 0.7 0.6 17.3 17.1 Mah and Mah Buy 523 651 30,426 21,600 24,126 13.0 12.8 35.7 37.9 14.6 13.8 4.4 3.8 23.2 20.7 Maruti Suzuki Buy 1,275 1,694 36,982 33,593 39,238 11.3 11.3 93.3 105.9 13.7 12.0 2.5 2.1 17.5 16.5 Motherson Sumi Buy 131 162 5,076 7,719 8,522 10.0 10.3 7.7 9.5 17.1 13.8 3.9 3.5 22.8 25.3 Subros Buy 47 61 285 1,007 1,119 10.3 10.3 5.4 6.2 8.7 7.6 1.2 1.1 14.2 14.4 Tata Motors Accumulate 763 938 47,508 106,706 116,993 9.5 9.9 55.7 69.5 13.7 11.0 5.1 4.0 30.2 29.7 TVS Motor Neutral 93 - 5,263 5,847 5,533 6.6 6.8 5.7 7.4 16.3 12.6 2.5 2.3 13.8 16.1 Banking Axis Bank Buy 1190.2 1,459 48,146 6,154 7,739 3.1 3.1 70.8 95.1 16.8 12.5 2.7 2.3 16.7 19.6 Bank of India Neutral 347.5 - 18,250 6,565 7,370 2.4 2.3 39.0 45.9 8.9 7.6 1.3 1.1 14.7 15.4 Corporation Bank Neutral 527.5 - 7,566 2,492 2,774 2.1 2.0 76.2 85.4 6.9 6.2 1.1 1.0 17.6 17.2 Dena Bank Buy 84.9 98 2,435 1,295 1,481 2.4 2.3 19.4 21.9 4.4 3.9 0.8 0.7 19.2 18.4 Federal Bank Buy 279.9 342 4,786 1,615 1,921 3.3 3.2 34.9 45.3 8.0 6.2 0.9 0.8 12.1 14.4 HDFC Bank Buy 1847.4 2,220 84,422 10,526 13,470 4.4 4.5 86.1 87.1 21.5 21.2 3.4 2.9 17.2 20.4 ICICI Bank Buy 876.4 1,166 97,677 9,378 11,538 2.5 2.5 44.8 60.7 19.5 14.4 1.8 1.7 11.5 15.0 Indian Bank Neutral 217.3 - 9,339 3,718 4,213 3.5 3.3 36.1 41.1 6.0 5.3 1.2 1.0 21.9 21.1 IOB Neutral 91.7 - 4,996 3,639 4,080 2.6 2.4 10.9 19.2 8.4 4.8 0.7 0.6 8.8 14.2 Oriental Bank Neutral 340.2 - 8,523 3,220 3,541 2.2 2.1 47.1 52.2 7.2 6.5 1.0 0.9 15.1 14.9 PNB Reduce 1014.1 874 31,975 10,005 11,296 3.2 3.1 125.9 139.1 8.1 7.3 1.7 1.4 22.5 20.9 South Ind Bk Buy 147.1 171 1,662 680 797 2.5 2.5 22.2 28.4 6.6 5.2 1.0 0.9 16.0 17.8 Union Bank Neutral 290.8 - 14,689 4,818 5,309 2.4 2.3 42.2 44.5 6.9 6.5 1.4 1.2 22.0 20.3 Yes Bank Neutral 264.5 - 8,977 1,000 1,183 2.5 2.4 16.5 18.7 16.0 14.2 2.3 2.0 15.8 15.3 Capital Goods ABB Neutral 685 - 14,523 7,543 9,027 9.6 10.7 23.1 30.6 29.7 22.4 5.1 4.3 18.6 20.8 Areva T&D Sell 264 218 6,318 3,887 4,650 8.9 10.5 5.6 9.9 46.8 26.7 6.5 5.5 14.7 22.2 BGR Energy Buy 559 641 4,025 4,067 5,508 11.4 11.4 33.9 45.8 16.5 12.2 4.4 3.3 29.9 30.9 BHEL Neutral 2,387 - 116,839 39,137 45,970 18.3 18.0 108.5 128.9 22.0 18.5 5.8 4.7 29.3 27.9 Crompton Greaves Buy 246 307 15,774 10,728 12,213 12.8 12.5 13.5 15.3 18.2 16.0 5.0 4.0 30.8 27.4 Graphite India Accumulate 94 117 1,611 1,603 1,913 24.4 24.2 12.1 14.0 7.8 6.7 1.2 1.0 16.5 16.5 11
  12. 12. Stock Watch | May 2010 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales (Rs cr) OPM (%) EPS (Rs) PER (x) P/BV RoE (%) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Jyoti Structures Buy 157 220 1,290 2,508 2,908 10.9 10.8 14.2 16.9 11.1 9.3 2.1 1.8 20.9 20.7 KEC Int Buy 513 698 2,637 4,563 5,223 10.0 10.0 41.9 49.8 12.2 10.3 3.0 2.4 27.6 26.2 McNally Bharat Engg Buy 312 467 967 2,444 3,046 9.7 9.6 26.3 33.3 11.9 9.4 2.7 2.2 28.0 25.9 Thermax Buy 671 754 7,989 4,432 5,618 12.1 11.8 30.3 37.7 22.1 17.8 6.1 4.8 30.7 30.3 Cement ACC* Neutral 864 - 16,214 8,033 8,938 24.6 24.1 66.0 72.3 13.1 11.9 2.4 2.1 19.2 18.4 Ambuja Cements* Neutral 112 - 16,991 6,913 7,623 24.3 24.0 6.8 7.4 16.4 15.1 2.4 2.2 14.0 14.1 Grasim Neutral 2,555 - 23,423 19,340 21,096 24.9 27.0 263.0 325.0 9.7 7.9 1.4 1.2 19.5 19.4 India Cements Buy 117 138 3,581 4,479 5,050 19.4 18.9 10.1 11.6 11.5 10.1 0.9 0.9 7.1 7.7 JK LakshmiCemen Buy 65 88 796 1,434 1,653 24.8 27.2 13.0 16.3 5.0 4.0 0.8 0.7 15.2 17.1 Madras Cements Buy 110 141 2,619 3,304 3,963 27.7 29.2 13.3 16.1 8.3 6.8 1.4 1.2 23.6 26.2 UltraTechCement Accumulate 944 1,084 11,749 7,334 8,587 24.4 27.1 77.5 98.9 12.2 9.5 2.2 1.8 19.2 20.5 Construction Consolidated Co Buy 80 92 1,475 2,572 2,920 9.3 9.4 6.9 7.7 11.6 10.4 2.6 2.2 19.0 18.1 Gammon India Neutral 212 - 2,557 6,162 7,117 10.3 10.2 16.3 17.7 13.0 12.0 1.2 1.1 8.8 8.4 Hind Constr Neutral 119 - 3,613 4,146 4,900 13.2 13.2 4.4 4.9 27.1 24.3 2.2 2.0 8.0 8.3 IRB Infra Accumulate 266 289 8,836 3,352 3,916 37.3 38.0 13.8 15.3 19.3 17.4 3.6 3.1 20.5 19.2 IVRCL Infras Buy 159 240 4,255 7,570 8,741 9.4 9.5 11.6 12.9 13.7 12.4 1.8 1.5 14.0 13.5 Jaiprakash Asso Buy 130 194 27,620 15,134 18,729 32.2 30.8 9.8 11.5 13.3 11.3 3.1 2.6 21.2 20.4 Madhucon Project Buy 154 190 1,135 1,701 2,120 8.9 9.8 6.4 9.8 24.0 15.7 1.8 1.7 8.0 11.2 Nagarjuna Const Accumulate 168 186 4,313 5,913 6,758 9.7 10.1 9.7 10.1 17.3 16.6 1.8 1.6 10.5 10.7 Patel Eng Buy 412 569 2,875 3,619 4,219 16.2 15.8 31.3 33.3 13.2 12.4 2.1 1.8 17.3 15.7 Punj Lloyd Buy 151 261 4,993 14,037 15,868 9.5 9.9 14.7 17.6 10.2 8.6 1.2 1.1 13.7 14.4 Sadbhav Eng Neutral 1,300 - 1,625 1,611 1,901 11.7 11.9 70.3 79.7 18.5 16.3 3.4 2.8 19.6 18.7 Simplex Infra Buy 494 586 2,443 5,783 6,730 9.7 10.0 33.3 41.0 14.8 12.0 2.1 1.8 15.4 16.4 Larsen&Toubro Buy 1,519 1,761 89,238 45,204 55,496 11.8 11.9 55.6 69.2 27.3 22.0 4.5 3.9 17.1 18.4 Consumer Durables Bajaj Electric Neutral 215 - 2,094 2,534 2,959 10.1 10.2 16.7 20.4 12.8 10.5 3.4 2.7 51.3 63.8 Blue Star Neutral 390 - 3,447 2,787 3,350 10.5 10.7 22.3 27.9 17.4 14.0 6.0 4.8 34.4 35.4 FMCG Asian Paints Neutral 2,086 - 20,010 7,499 8,692 17.1 16.7 84.3 95.9 24.8 21.8 10.5 8.8 42.4 40.1 Colgate Neutral 740 - 10,066 2,267 2,599 20.2 20.3 33.1 37.6 22.4 19.7 25.1 19.0 112.4 96.5 Dabur India Neutral 181 - 15,640 3,931 4,525 19.1 19.2 6.7 7.8 26.9 23.0 9.8 8.2 40.7 38.8 GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 1,578 - 6,638 2,279 2,667 16.1 16.4 65.1 77.2 24.2 20.4 6.2 5.2 27.7 27.8 Godrej Consumer Accumulate 304 329 9,357 2,412 2,720 20.2 20.3 12.7 14.2 23.8 21.4 9.6 7.9 45.4 40.5 HUL Neutral 235 - 51,913 19,157 21,517 13.5 13.7 10.2 11.7 23.0 20.0 27.5 27.5 117.9 135.2 ITC Accumulate 259 300 98,872 19,671 21,673 34.7 34.8 12.1 13.4 21.4 19.4 5.4 4.7 25.1 24.2 KS Oils Buy 63 94 2,499 5,838 7,035 11.2 11.6 8.1 10.4 7.8 6.1 1.8 1.4 14.4 16.0 Marico Neutral 107 - 6,535 2,983 3,349 13.7 13.6 4.5 5.1 23.8 21.2 7.9 6.2 37.8 32.8 Nestle* Accumulate 2,730 2,865 26,326 6,015 6,956 19.4 19.7 81.5 98.5 33.5 27.7 35.2 30.9 118.2 118.6 Hotels Taj GVK Hotels Buy 154 240 968 298 342 40.6 42.8 9.0 12.2 17.2 12.7 2.8 2.4 17.7 20.3 Information Technology 3i Infotech Buy 70 129 1,338 2,734 3,197 19.4 19.0 14.5 17.6 4.8 4.0 0.7 0.6 16.8 16.5 Educomp Sol Buy 627 926 5,953 1,567 2,085 45.2 42.0 36.5 46.3 17.2 13.5 3.5 2.8 22.9 23.1 12
  13. 13. Stock Watch | May 2010 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales (Rs cr) OPM (%) EPS (Rs) PER (x) P/BV RoE (%) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Everonn Edu Buy 375 602 567 393 496 34.0 32.5 36.5 43.0 10.3 8.7 2.4 2.0 18.8 18.1 HCL Tech Accumulate 387 420 26,098 13,611 15,903 21.0 20.5 22.5 27.2 17.2 14.2 3.7 3.1 22.3 23.5 Infosys Buy 2620 3,089 149,864 25,658 31,071 34.3 33.5 118.8 140.4 22.1 18.7 5.4 4.5 26.7 26.1 Infotech Enter Buy 383 464 2,126 1,132 1,306 21.6 21.5 33.4 38.7 11.5 9.9 1.9 1.6 18.2 17.8 Mphasis Buy 641 872 13435 5990 7043 25.2 25.5 54.5 64.5 11.8 9.9 3.4 2.6 32.7 29.2 NIIT Accumulate 68 72 1,116 1,335 1,469 13.0 13.1 5.4 6.0 12.5 11.3 2.0 1.8 17.4 17.1 TCS Buy 742 921 145,254 33,351 38,821 28.7 28.2 37.9 41.9 19.6 17.7 5.8 4.9 31.9 29.8 Tech Mahindra Buy 713 1,168 8,714 4,989 5,704 24.0 23.0 58.3 67.0 12.2 10.6 2.6 2.1 24.9 22.0 Wipro Buy 639 790 93,668 31,034 37,317 21.3 20.7 34.0 39.5 18.8 16.1 4.2 3.5 24.6 23.6 Laminates Greenply Inds Buy 181 291 401 1,044 1,292 14.0 15.0 21.8 36.4 8.3 5.0 1.3 1.0 13.7 14.4 Logistics Allcargo Global* Neutral 186 - 2,317 2,221 2,452 12.5 13.4 11.7 14.2 15.9 13.1 2.1 1.9 15.4 16.7 Container Corp Reduce 1,292 1,194 16,787 4,003 4,522 26.0 25.3 63.3 70.3 20.4 18.4 3.5 3.1 18.0 17.6 Gateway Distri Buy 120 160 1,299 696 847 28.4 29.5 10.2 12.5 11.8 9.6 2.1 1.8 15.8 17.2 Media Balaji Telefilm Neutral 52 - 340 183 238 7.2 10.3 2.5 3.7 20.6 14.0 0.9 0.8 4.3 6.1 Cinemax India Buy 62 106 173 224 276 21.9 22.5 6.0 8.2 10.2 7.6 1.0 0.9 9.8 12.4 Deccan Chronicle Buy 143 216 3,465 1,038 1,192 48.1 48.0 12.4 14.7 11.5 9.8 2.3 2.0 20.4 20.9 HT Media Buy 141 170 3,308 1,602 1,807 18.3 18.6 7.1 8.5 19.8 16.6 2.9 2.5 14.2 15.1 INOX Leisure Buy 61 81 377 290 354 21.2 22.6 4.2 5.8 14.7 10.5 1.1 1.0 7.8 9.8 Jagran Prakashan Buy 109 160 3,286 1,092 1,267 29.7 30.2 6.7 8.0 16.3 13.7 5.0 4.5 31.8 34.7 PVR Buy 158 211 363 445 562 14.9 16.4 8.5 15.0 18.5 10.5 1.3 1.1 6.8 10.8 TV Today Network Buy 107 140 615 314 360 24.9 26.3 9.9 11.7 10.7 9.1 1.5 1.3 13.7 14.0 Metals Electrosteel Castings Buy 47 72 1,542 1,706 1,818 26.2 28.0 5.6 6.6 8.4 7.2 0.9 0.8 12.8 13.6 Godawari Power Buy 246 307 690 1,060 1,122 27.0 26.5 59.0 66.1 4.2 3.7 1.0 0.8 10.5 10.7 Hind Zinc Buy 1,080 1,399 45,644 9,764 12,884 60.0 60.2 119.8 162.4 9.0 6.7 2.0 1.5 24.7 26.1 Hindalco Buy 163 207 31,177 65,930 69,731 13.1 13.8 20.8 22.6 7.8 7.2 1.2 1.1 17.2 15.9 JSW Steel Buy 1,121 1,360 20,964 24,499 30,127 22.5 22.9 97.2 122.7 11.5 9.1 1.3 1.2 19.4 20.1 NALCO Sell 396 260 25,495 5,464 5,617 24.0 28.9 15.6 18.6 25.4 21.3 2.4 2.2 9.1 10.4 NMDC Sell 293 247 116,324 11,793 14,232 83.1 81.8 18.1 21.7 16.2 13.5 5.8 4.3 42.0 36.8 SAIL Neutral 208 - 86,016 48,247 52,932 24.2 23.8 17.9 18.0 11.6 11.6 2.2 1.9 20.6 17.7 Sesa Goa Neutral 391 - 32,139 9,582 10,662 54.5 54.7 47.5 52.2 8.2 7.5 2.9 2.1 43.8 34.2 Sterlite Ind Buy 714 980 60,034 28,845 32,994 29.7 31.6 68.4 76.7 10.4 9.3 1.3 1.0 13.5 12.9 Tata Steel Buy 559 697 49,564 117,540 123,012 12.1 12.4 61.2 57.5 9.1 9.7 1.5 1.3 17.0 14.1 Oil & Gas Cairn India Accumulate 286 - 54,197 7,908 14,980 82.0 84.5 22.9 45.8 12.5 6.2 1.5 1.4 12.8 24.4 GAIL Buy 419 553 53,206 36,858 41,305 14.7 16.7 28.4 33.7 14.8 12.4 9.1 7.8 19.8 20.3 Guj Gas Accumulate 285 306 3,651 1,665 2,042 21.2 20.6 17.0 20.4 16.8 13.9 4.0 3.3 25.8 25.8 Guj State Petro Buy 93 121 5,203 1,134 1,208 93.4 93.3 7.7 8.4 12.1 11.0 2.7 2.3 22.6 20.9 IndraprasthaGas Sell 225 190 3,148 1,272 1,527 35.1 31.1 16.3 14.4 13.8 15.6 3.3 2.9 23.9 18.8 ONGC Neutral 1,045 - 223,565 114,054 116,449 43.9 45.6 102.5 107.1 10.2 9.8 2.2 2.0 21.2 20.3 Petronet LNG Accumulate 80 88 5,993 12,872 18,011 8.2 6.2 6.3 6.7 12.6 11.9 2.4 2.1 19.9 18.8 Reliance Buy 1,034 1,260 339,744 234,754 243,596 17.6 20.0 69.5 87.3 14.9 11.8 2.0 1.8 14.6 16.0 13
  14. 14. Stock Watch | May 2010 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales (Rs cr) OPM (%) EPS (Rs) PER (x) P/BV RoE (%) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Shiv Vani Oil Buy 424 510 1,860 1,667 1,725 41.9 41.8 58.6 63.7 7.2 6.7 1.4 1.2 21.1 18.9 Packaging Essel Propack Buy 46 58 720 1,350 1,811 19.5 20.3 4.0 9.9 11.5 4.6 0.9 0.8 8.4 18.5 Pharmaceuticals Alembic Accumulate 48 52 635 1,286 1,445 13.5 13.4 5.4 6.4 8.8 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.4 14.2 Aventis Pharma Reduce 1,874 1,658 4,316 1,087 1,220 22.7 23.4 80.9 92.1 23.2 20.3 4.1 3.6 18.8 18.9 Cadila Health Buy 573 634 11,709 4,308 5,100 20.1 21.0 30.6 39.6 18.7 14.5 5.8 4.4 34.8 34.7 Cipla Accumulate 342 360 27,459 5,967 6,723 19.8 20.0 15.1 17.2 22.6 19.9 4.0 3.5 19.2 18.8 Dishman Pharma Buy 217 311 1,751 1,236 1,478 24.7 25.3 19.7 23.9 11.0 9.1 1.8 1.5 17.6 18.3 Dr Reddys Labs Accumulate 1,207 1,313 20,379 8,416 9,797 18.9 19.4 59.1 78.1 20.4 15.5 4.4 3.5 23.8 25.2 GlaxoSmithKline Reduce 1,944 1,700 16,466 2,145 2,422 35.0 35.3 65.4 73.9 29.7 26.3 8.1 7.1 29.0 28.9 Indoco Remedies Buy 417 487 512 443 517 16.2 17.4 40.5 54.2 10.3 7.7 1.5 1.4 15.2 17.5 Ipca Labs Accumulate 253 282 634 1,796 2,117 21.2 21.2 19.3 23.5 13.1 10.8 3.2 2.6 27.0 26.8 Lupin Buy 1,797 2,099 15,981 5,645 6,579 18.9 19.5 93.4 116.6 19.2 15.4 5.5 4.3 31.8 31.2 Orchid Chemical Reduce 149 142 1,050 1,061 1,325 16.7 16.5 11.6 14.2 12.8 10.5 0.6 0.7 4.7 6.0 Piramal Health Neutral 547 - 11,432 4,252 4,785 20.1 20.4 26.8 30.5 20.4 17.9 5.8 4.8 31.1 29.1 Ranbaxy Labs Neutral 450 - 18,923 7,329 7,495 12.0 18.5 10.0 24.3 45.2 18.5 3.8 3.3 7.4 19.2 Sun Pharma Neutral 1,533 - 31,751 4,814 5,287 33.7 34.7 73.2 82.0 20.9 18.7 3.5 3.0 17.7 17.3 Plastics Sintex Industries Buy 296 369 4,034 3,845 4,595 16.9 17.5 27.7 33.6 10.7 8.8 1.9 1.6 16.3 16.6 Power CESC Buy 384 460 4,801 4,166 4,887 23.7 23.9 38.3 50.1 10.0 7.7 1.1 1.0 11.3 13.1 Guj Ind Power Buy 117 135 1,762 1,217 1,528 23.2 23.3 7.6 10.7 15.3 10.9 1.1 1.0 7.3 9.3 NTPC Accumulate 202 230 166,270 55,659 65,379 28.1 28.7 12.1 14.4 16.7 14.0 2.2 1.9 11.9 12.9 Power - Cables Finolex Cables Buy 52 85 791 1,994 2,398 10.2 10.4 5.7 9.2 9.1 5.6 1.1 1.0 13.0 18.4 Power - Trading PTC India Buy 109 136 3,209 10,906 13,698 1.3 1.3 5.1 6.5 21.4 16.8 1.5 1.4 6.8 8.2 Real Estate Anant Raj Inds Buy 120 196 3,532 467 785 91.7 92.3 11.8 17.6 10.1 6.8 0.9 0.8 9.7 12.9 HDIL Buy 238 356 8,244 1,775 3,106 49.2 52.3 19.7 35.2 12.1 6.8 1.1 1.0 9.9 15.4 Retail Pantaloon Ret Accumulate 394 469 8,132 10,704 13,137 10.1 10.1 15.6 20.4 25.3 19.3 2.5 2.3 10.4 12.2 Shoppers Stop Neutral 383 - 1,334 1,660 2,075 7.0 7.0 13.9 18.4 27.5 20.8 4.8 3.1 17.0 16.4 Titan Industries Neutral 2,158 - 9,579 5,716 7,031 8.6 8.7 72.5 92.0 29.8 23.5 10.1 7.8 38.3 37.5 Shipping ABG Shipyard Buy 243 354 1,236 1,927 2,559 21.0 21.0 23.7 39.8 10.2 6.1 1.3 1.1 13.8 19.7 GE Shipping Buy 288 396 4,379 2,993 3,843 32.7 37.2 45.1 69.5 6.4 4.1 0.7 0.6 11.9 16.5 Sugar Bajaj Hindusthan^ Neutral 113 - 2,155 5,471 5,301 15.4 15.4 12.4 10.5 9.1 10.7 0.9 0.9 10.6 8.2 Balrampur Chini Mills^ Neutral 72 - 2,393 2,922 3,009 13.4 16.0 6.4 8.8 11.3 8.2 1.6 1.4 14.2 18.0 Telecom Bharti Artl Buy 288 360 109,153 42,773 47,328 35.3 35.6 22.0 24.9 13.6 12.0 2.2 1.9 18.6 17.9 Idea Cellular Sell 64 50 21,003 14,557 16,510 23.2 23.7 1.7 2.5 37.4 25.5 1.7 1.6 4.4 6.1 Reliance Comm Buy 153 197 31,549 24,105 26,657 31.5 32.0 16.2 18.6 9.4 8.2 0.7 0.6 7.3 7.9 Note: For some stocks we have kept a BUY rating inspite of lower than benchmarked returns, as we believe these stocks have potential to get re-rated and hence would provide good upsides from a long term perspective. Source: Company, Angel Research, * estimates for CY10E and CY11E; ^ estimates for SY10E and SY11E 14
  15. 15. Market Strategy Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%) May 2010 15
  16. 16. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com Rahul Jain IT, Telecom rahul.j@angeltrade.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com Sandeep Patil Jr. Derivative Analyst patil.sandeep@angeltrade.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Dharmil Adhyaru Assistant Research Editor dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com For Private Circulation Only.

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