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Global Messaging Trends 2017

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A look at how innovations in voice processing, AR/VR, and heads up displays will affect messaging and digital communication. This is the expanded and annotated PPT from Grata's keynote presentation at CHina CHat Shanghai 2017.

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Global Messaging Trends 2017

  1. 1. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat Shanghai 21 September 2017 Andrew Schorr founder @ Grata.co
  2. 2. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co The “messaging wars” isn’t the most exciting story this year Source: the companies *Estimated Monthly Active Users Year-over-Year Growth Reported 2.01B Facebook +17% Q2 2017 1.30B WhatsApp +30%* 26-Jul-2017 1.20B Messenger +33%* 12-Apr-2017 963M WeChat +19.5% Q2 2017 850M QQ -5.4% Q2 2017 800M Instagram +33%* 25-Sep-2017 328M Twitter +5% Q2 2017 258M* Snap +21% Q2 2017 169M Line +7.6% Q2 2017 100M Telegram no data 23-Feb-2016 49M Kakao +0.7% Q2 2017 15M Kik no data May-2017
  3. 3. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co z WeChat is still the king in China Kleiner Perkins 2017 Internet Trends Report pg 204
  4. 4. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co And Facebook will not be unseated anytime soon Chart: www.recode.net/2017/6/20/15836248/instagram-stories-250-million-users-snapchat
  5. 5. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co $SNAP vs. $FB Chart finance.yahoo.com/chart/FB $136.76 $172.52 $14.72 $24.48 IPO Close +26% -40%
  6. 6. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co The messaging space is increasingly hard to define Is WeChat still considered a messaging app? More and more tangential services plug-in to messaging platforms Not just human-to-human or consumer-to-business messaging, but human-to-machine too Where does the space go from here?
  7. 7. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co What is communication? How do we measure improvement in communication? Helpful to step back even further
  8. 8. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Communication is optimized when a message is conveyed as accurately as possible with the least amount of friction
  9. 9. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Clarity EaseFriction Noise Reducing friction means making it easier to start and participate in a conversation Improving clarity enriches conversations, effectively communicating context and emotion With progress generally comes increasing frequency of communication: WhatsApp users sent 55 billion messages daily blog.whatsapp.com/10000631/Connecting-One-Billion-Users-Every-Day
  10. 10. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Clarity EaseFriction Noise Only with context can we plot a mode of communication on our graph; if the context, for example, is two people trying to find each other, it’s hard to imagine a more precise and effortless tool than real-time location-sharing Modern messaging apps are already in the top-right quadrant; multi-modal so users can select the most appropriate mode based on context ○ Smoke Signals ○ Push-to-talk ○ Image ○ Telegram ○ Snail Mail ○ Loudspeaker ○ Banner Ads ○ Phone call ○ Essay ○ Pony Express ○ Video chat ○ Radio broadcast ○ SMS ○ Location sharing
  11. 11. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Platforms Voice Vision Where should we look for continuing gains in reducing friction and increasing clarity?
  12. 12. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Messaging as a Platform What other features add value when paired with messaging? This is WeChat’s forte. How are the other platforms doing?
  13. 13. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Key pillar of messaging platforms China mobile payments are 50x US ($5.5 trillion versus $112 billion) ft.com/content/00585722-ef42-11e6-930f-061b01e23655 Payments
  14. 14. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Chart: Kleiner Perkins Internet Trends Report 2017 1. Payments in China are cheap, 2. Lower credit card adoption in China, and Why?
  15. 15. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Further reading: a16z.com/2017/08/11/qr-codes-in-china/ Image: www.shopify.com/blog/shopcodes-announcement 3. QR Codes are ubiquitous in China; the dominant payment mechanism (not NFC) Snap, Messenger, Kik, and others use codes, but it’s just not the same Shopify’s scan-to-shop “shopcodes”, announced September 12th, are a boost
  16. 16. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Messenger Platform Still “start building a bot” rather than a wider business platform Platform v2.0 released in April; July’s v2.1 update adds built-in NLP and a handover protocol to put a floor on bad bot experiences. Payments still in beta, US-only Image: Facebook messenger.fb.com/blog/messenger-platform-2-1-brings-new-tools-to-enrich-conversations
  17. 17. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Android Instant Apps Closest analog to WeChat Mini- programs Streaming apps + Authentication + Payments Easier for developers and more extensible than WeChat MPs Still in beta; Google will backdate support to Jelly Bean Images: Doodle Further reading: www.androidauthority.com/android-instant-apps-693316
  18. 18. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co WhatsApp for Business Finally Closed pilot of verified pages and SMB/enterprise messaging tools No public documentation Image: KLM 9/5/2017 blog.whatsapp.com/10000633/Building-for-People-and-Now-Businesses 1/18/2016 blog.whatsapp.com/615/Making-WhatsApp-free-and-more-useful
  19. 19. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Voice as an Interface In a world of AR/VR, we’re not using a keyboard anymore Related to growth in Internet of Things, we need to talk to an increasing number of machines
  20. 20. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Smart speakers are a big deal A year ago, the frenzy was over chatbots; now it’s speakers, or more appropriately microphones Image: South Park
  21. 21. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Everyone’s making one Echo Home Dingdong Baidu Xiaoyu Tmall Genie Homepod Nov 2014 Nov 4 2016 Nov 28 2016 May 4 2017 July 17 2017 Dec 2017 Images: the manufacturers www.voicebot.ai/2017/07/14/timeline-voice-assistants-short-history-voice-revolution
  22. 22. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Amazon vs. Google US market share 76% 24% Consumer Intelligence Research Partners 18 Sep 2017 This is what a two year head start looks like Alexa started handling calls and messaging in May 2017
  23. 23. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co The Amazon effect. Cheaper than China. Images: Amazon, Baidu $229 $453 Echo Show Baidu Xiaoyu
  24. 24. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co It’s about the mic Apple’s Homepod has six microphones; Airpods have two each Earphones with a chip inside: the always-on smart microphone Calls, voice messages, Siri, Google Voice www.apple.com/airpods www.sonymobile.com/us/products/smart-products/xperia-ear www.motorolastore.com/accessories/bluetooth-headsets/motorola-hint.html $140 Xperia Ear $160 Airpods $72 Moto Hint
  25. 25. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Making progress, but voice is hard “Real speech technology, like being able to have my phone turned on when I am in a crowd and having it recognize what I am saying, is twenty years away. When Siri came out, people thought that speech was a solved technology problem.” Jeff Adams former project lead, Alexa previously Nuance Dragon Dictation Chart: Kleiner Perkins Internet Trends Report 2017 pg 48 Quote: www.voicebot.ai/2017/09/06/jeff-adams-led-the-team-that-built-amazon-alexa-cobalt-offers-elite-speech-technology-expertise Google NLP vs. Human Accuracy
  26. 26. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Short-term challenges: discovery + security Ultrasonic device attacks “Dolphin Attack” www.fastcodesign.com/90139019/a-simple-design- flaw-makes-it-astoundingly-easy-to-hack-siri-and-alexa Voice Modification www.technologyreview.com/s/608381/ai- shouldnt-believe-everything-it-hears Chart: BBC Solving for Voice SEO Discoverability in Alexa www.voicebot.ai/2017/09/05/amazon- alexa-now-recommends-third-party-skills Voice SEO www.voicebot.ai/2017/07/30/voice-seo-new-rules- discovery Chart: voicebot.ai
  27. 27. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Vision + Messaging AR/VR will improve both the effectiveness and emotive power of communication Vision processing can reduce the need for human to communicate context to a device Heads up displays are inevitable; reducing marginal device- specific friction of smartphones
  28. 28. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Oculus’ mixed reality video chat was a good demonstration of what’s possible Image: Facebook
  29. 29. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co BAT all have early AR platforms in China Baidu DuSee announced 8/2016; testing 3D augmentation in Baidu maps and search Tencent QAR Open Platform announced 12/2016; QAR = Quick + AR; lightweight Android and iOS SDK Alibaba implementing VR/AR changing rooms and make-up stations in its first offline stores Slides from QAR first public presentation: vr.sina.com.cn/news/js/2016-12-07/doc-ifxyiayq2668441.shtml More on DuSee: www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2017/01/18/how-tech-giant-baidu-is-making-china-a-leader-in-augmented-reality More on Alibaba: jingdaily.com/alibaba-to-open-first-new-retail-mall-china
  30. 30. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Google was early to AR Project Tango launched in 2014; “great tech, no users” ARCore will replace high-end 3D mesh tech of Tango in favor of surface detection tech ARCore in limited release, but will support 100M Android devices at public launch More at techcrunch.com/2017/08/29/google-shows-off-arcore-its-answer-to-apples-arkit
  31. 31. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Snap makes AR cool More at www.theverge.com/2017/4/18/15333130/snapchat-world-lenses-something-new-for-facebook-to-copy Tempting to dismiss Snap world lenses, and for that matter Apple’s new animoji, as frivolous, but their ability to enrich and delight is in line with theme of improving communication
  32. 32. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Apple will make it normal IKEA Place App Image: techcrunch.com/2017/09/12/ikea-place-the-retailers-first-arkit-app-creates-lifelike-pictures-of-furniture-in-your-home More at: techcrunch.com/2017/08/29/a-preview-of-the-first-wave-of-ar-apps-coming-to-iphones Announced at WWDC in June 2017; works with iOS 11 devices Apple has advantages controlling OS + device relative to Google, Snap, WeChat, etc
  33. 33. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Microsoft Vision API makes for fun bots twitter.com/citydescriber
  34. 34. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co If not always accurate twitter.com/citydescriber
  35. 35. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Easy to imagine its trajectory An aerial view of Barcelona Cathedral and the surrounding Eixample district in Barcelona, Spain… Better still: Connect to maps, venues, real-time contextual data, and more twitter.com/citydescriber
  36. 36. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Google’s already there Google Lens connects image processing to Google services Announced at Google I/O May 2017; rolling out first on Google Assistant and Photos www.engadget.com/2017/05/17/google-lens-brings-ai-understanding-to-assistant-and-photos
  37. 37. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Google Lens + Translate
  38. 38. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Smartphone AR is a stepping stone to a heads up display Further reading: wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here Image: www.x.company/glass Glass is back Five years after first launching, it’s now strictly for work, improving productivity and quality in manufacturing Improved battery life, camera, and processor; lighter equipment can be attached to any frame Glass Enterprise Edition Available only through Google Partners $1,800+
  39. 39. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Glasses for the rest of us? Snap Spectacles launched one year ago; estimated sales of 100K+ units; v2.0 in development is rumored to include AR Apple is widely rumored to be developing glasses for ARKit Amazon rumored to be shipping Alexa-powered glasses this year Sales estimates: www.businessinsider.com/snap-spectacles-sales-slowdown-in-q2-2017-8 Apple glasses: www.theverge.com/2016/11/14/13631010/apple-wearable-smart-glasses-ar-vr-google-glass Amazon glasses: www.ft.com/content/d7862042-9d9a-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946 Magic Leap: www.businessinsider.fr/us/magic-leap-update-design-images-revealed-patent-filing-2017-8 Latest Spectacles news: www.recode.net/2017/9/21/16346862/snap-spectacles-hardware-division-layoffs-steve-horowitz Magic Leap patent filing Coming soon? $130 spectacles.com
  40. 40. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co The Intersection of AR + Messaging? Finding your friend at a music festival Neon app built on ARKit: better than sending a pin on a map Geo-located messages Geo-located messages uploadvr.com/neon-social-ar-app-friend-finding-sign-posting
  41. 41. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Will wearables kill the smartphone? Combination of an always-on microphone, ambient camera, heads up display, and voice commands will gradually allow us to put down the smartphone This will remove the seemingly last friction in digital communication The next best use-cases likely haven’t been thought of yet Image: South Park
  42. 42. Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co Thank you! Andrew Schorr founder @ Grata.co Grata is a live-chat platform for the messaging era www.grata.co twitter.com/grata_co  WeChat @ grata_co facebook.com/grataapp andrew@grata.co

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