Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Learning from the UK’s
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
Andrew Curry, The Futures Company
Foresight’s Intelligent Infrastructure Futures
                      •    Foresight: takes a long-term view of long-
     ...
Summarising the scenarios
                           Accepting of Intelligent
                               Infrastructur...
Technology applied
                   Accepting of Intelligent
                       Infrastructure




                 ...
Designing out demand
                                         Accepting of Intelligent
                                   ...
The impact of resource limits
                          Accepting of Intelligent
                              Infrastruct...
Reduction through rationing
                                Accepting of Intelligent
                                    I...
Accepting of Intelligent
                                    Infrastructure




                Economic
                I...
Reflecting on the scenarios
• The only reliable way to reduce personal
  transport demand is to focus on access not
  mobi...
Reflecting on the scenarios
• So far reducing personal transport use has only
  happened generally as a result of fuel pri...
“How do you want
                                                                   your kids to live?
                   ...
Thank you



                             Andrew Curry
                             andrew.curry@thefuturescompany.com
   ...
Annex : scenario highlights




                              13
Perpetual motion




14
Urban colonies




15
Tribal trading




16
Good intentions




17
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Iis Scenarios Revisited Curry Leuven0610

628 views

Published on

A review of our Foresight scenarios on the future of intelligent infrastructure systems, five years on. Presented at The Future of Transport conference in Leuven, Belgium, June 2010.

Published in: Automotive
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Iis Scenarios Revisited Curry Leuven0610

  1. 1. Learning from the UK’s Intelligent Infrastructure Scenarios Andrew Curry, The Futures Company
  2. 2. Foresight’s Intelligent Infrastructure Futures • Foresight: takes a long-term view of long- term issues where science and technology can be influential • Intelligent Infrastructure Systems project was sponsored by the Department of Transport, which still uses the scenarios as part of its long-term thinking • The project combined drivers analysis, scenarios development, systems work, and socio-technical studies, as well as ‘state of science’ reviews from leading academics - social scientists as well as technologists • The output is in the public domain and can be freely downloaded: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/OurWork/Comple tedProjects/IIS/KeyInfo/Index.asp 2
  3. 3. Summarising the scenarios Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure Good Intentions Perpetual Motion High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Tribal Trading Urban Colonies Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 3
  4. 4. Technology applied Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure Perpetual Motion High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 4
  5. 5. Designing out demand Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure High Impact Low impact Transport Transport ‘At a gross density of 50 dph, 5,000 dwellings can be within a 10 minute walk of public services, schools and viable public Urban Colonies transport.’ MJP Architects, ‘Sustainable Suburbia’ Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 54
  6. 6. The impact of resource limits Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Tribal Trading Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 64
  7. 7. Reduction through rationing Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure Economic Insecurity Good Intentions High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 74
  8. 8. Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure Economic Insecurity Good Intentions Perpetual Motion High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Tribal Trading Urban Colonies Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 8
  9. 9. Reflecting on the scenarios • The only reliable way to reduce personal transport demand is to focus on access not mobility – this takes a generation – but it is happening • Technology can help - but it needs to be applied to reducing demand for private personal transport – otherwise it reduces equity 9
  10. 10. Reflecting on the scenarios • So far reducing personal transport use has only happened generally as a result of fuel price increases – but this is a risky way to manage transport outcomes • Decisive changes in transport behaviour are likely to come quickly only through rationing or pricing – but car users resent it – so this is a tough political challenge – there need to be clear benefits associated with the change 10
  11. 11. “How do you want your kids to live? Do you want to walk or drive to get Enrique Penalosa bread? That' s the basis of thinking about cities.” http://www.resurgence.org/magazine/article518-CITIES-OF-JOY.html 11
  12. 12. Thank you Andrew Curry andrew.curry@thefuturescompany.com +44 (0) 20 7955 1839 © 2010 The Futures Company
  13. 13. Annex : scenario highlights 13
  14. 14. Perpetual motion 14
  15. 15. Urban colonies 15
  16. 16. Tribal trading 16
  17. 17. Good intentions 17

×