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$5 Trillion
Economic Value at Stake:
Digitization of Road Transportation
Andreas Mai
Former Director Smart Connected Vehic...
$1,254
$1,251
$895
$884
$790
V@S [$ Billion]
Self-Driven-Vehicle
Connected Vehicle
Mobility-as-a-Service
Intelligent Trans...
For cars, highest V@S with ADAS and Mobility-as-a-Service
– For trucks, ITS and connected fleet drive most of the V@S
$5.0...
$5,470
$4,057
$1,915
$3,199
$3,170
$5,074
Cost Reduction Gross Margin
Increase
Cost Avoidance Gross Margin
Reduction
Cost ...
The V@S of Mobility-as-a Service and self-driven vehicles
increases over 70% for each 1% point penetration
$48
$86
$291
$5...
($599)
($65)
($54)
($24)
Half of the V@S is societal – biggest winners are owner,
insurer & auto; drivers & car rental are...
Significant global societal benefits over the next decade
1 Million19 Million 12 Million
250 Billion Hours
= 140 Million W...
AutopilotAssisted
North America: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Driving Time
Connected
2,400
880
80
Value $3,360
Work
Media...
Globally: Saving 5.8 Million tanker trucks of fuel
– plus 1,500 supertankers of emissions
Emissions Avoided
480 Million Me...
SDV increase net fuel consumption by 60 Billion Liters for
each 1 percent point higher penetration: Driving EVs?
-
8
(126)...
At 10% of global car population, MaaS has the potential to
make 1.7 billion people mobile, especially in Asia & Africa
344...
MaaS is set to shift new car sales from personal owners in
mature markets to emerging markets and fleets
-25
-20
-15
-10
-...
Over 60 Million jobs created for society, fleet owners, ITS
and insurers make up for lost jobs of drivers and others
(10.0...
15%
19%
20%
24%
25%
33%
41%
45%
31%
22%
33%
28%
25%
20%
22%
17%
13%
17%
25%
27%
17%
19%
15%
19%
19%
15%
11%
12%
18%
21%
11...
Want a deeper drive? andreasmai99@gmail.com
Digitization of Road Transportation
Global Value at Stake
Regional Comparison
...
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$5 Trillion Economic Value at Stake: Digitization of Road Transportation

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We are in the early stages of a massively disruptive shift to electric, connected, shared (“uberization”) and self-driven vehicles. Over the next ten years, the digitization of the transportation of people and goods has the potential to create $11.4 Trillion of economic value globally. During the same time, $6.4 Trillion of value is migrating to other stakeholders, resulting in a net present value of $5 Trillion. The underlying economic model integrates over 450 effects from numerous academic and industry studies into a comprehensive financial model that describes the flow of money between the potential “winners and losers” of this transformation of road transportation.
This presentation highlights key results of the study to assist business leaders and policy makers with their innovation, investment and partnership strategies to secure the benefits and minimize the collateral damage from the imminent disruption of the transportation industry.

Published in: Automotive

$5 Trillion Economic Value at Stake: Digitization of Road Transportation

  1. 1. $5 Trillion Economic Value at Stake: Digitization of Road Transportation Andreas Mai Former Director Smart Connected Vehicles, Cisco Systems November 2016
  2. 2. $1,254 $1,251 $895 $884 $790 V@S [$ Billion] Self-Driven-Vehicle Connected Vehicle Mobility-as-a-Service Intelligent Transportation System Advanced Driving Assistance System Five key value drivers of the ‘Digitization of Transportation’ – ADAS and ITS account for half of the global V@S $5.0 Trillion Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017-26 & 7% Discount by Vehicle Type [USD Billion] Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  3. 3. For cars, highest V@S with ADAS and Mobility-as-a-Service – For trucks, ITS and connected fleet drive most of the V@S $5.0 Trillion $3.4 Trillion V@S by Vehicle Type Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017 – 26 Discounted @ 7% by Vehicle Type [USD Billion] $1,254 $342 $912 $1,251 $784 $467 $895 $0 $895 $884 $386 $498 $790 $128 $662 All Vehicles All Trucks All Cars Self-Driven-Vehicle Connected Vehicle Mobility-as-a-Service Intelligent Transportation System Advanced Driving Assistance System $1.6 Trillion Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  4. 4. $5,470 $4,057 $1,915 $3,199 $3,170 $5,074 Cost Reduction Gross Margin Increase Cost Avoidance Gross Margin Reduction Cost Increase Net Impact V@S Model integrates over 450 effects and the resulting creation and migration of values between stakeholders Global – Digitization of Transportation Value Creation, Migration & V@S by Value Type 2017-26 [USD Billion] •  Crashes (Society) •  Congestion •  Parking space •  MaaS cost/ Mile •  Insurance (Owner) •  Crashes (Owner) •  New MaaS business •  People mobility GDP •  L2-5 system (Auto) •  L2-L5 system (Owner) •  More SDV VMT •  Data services •  Taxi price/ share •  Insurance •  Repairs (Dealer) Value Creation Value Migration V@S $ 11.4 Trillion $ 6.4 Trillion $ 5.0 Trillion Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  5. 5. The V@S of Mobility-as-a Service and self-driven vehicles increases over 70% for each 1% point penetration $48 $86 $291 $555 $685 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 Connected ADAS ITS SDV MaaS 1% 5% 7% 70% 23% 77% Penetration Global – Digitization of Transportation: Annual V@S Uplift of 1% Point Vehicle Penetration [% and $ Billion] $5.1 $1.7 V@S [$ Trillion] Higher 33% Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  6. 6. ($599) ($65) ($54) ($24) Half of the V@S is societal – biggest winners are owner, insurer & auto; drivers & car rental are likely losers Global – Digitization of Transportation: Winners & Losers V@S 2017 – 2026 @ 7% Discount [USD Billion] $1,128 $638 $566 $324 $235 $206 $152 V@S [$ Billion] Oil MSP NewCo ITS Auto Insurer Owner $2.5 $2.5 V@S [$ Trillion] $5.0 Trillion Society Winners & Losers $3.2 Trillion Losers$0.7 Trillion Driver Rental Medical Legal Winners Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  7. 7. Significant global societal benefits over the next decade 1 Million19 Million 12 Million 250 Billion Hours = 140 Million Work Years = 30 Million Years = 400,000 Lifetimes Global – Digitization of Transportation: Societal Value 2017 – 2026 +185,000+3.0 Million +2 Million + 1% Point Penetration +100 Billion Hours Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  8. 8. AutopilotAssisted North America: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Driving Time Connected 2,400 880 80 Value $3,360 Work Media Rest 0 56% Shop 1 @ 1.25 vehicle occupancy 2 Congestion, traffic light stops, looking for parking 113 Traffic Inefficiencies 2 2015 580 Hours Driving Time per Vehicle per Year 1 Value of Driving Time Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  9. 9. Globally: Saving 5.8 Million tanker trucks of fuel – plus 1,500 supertankers of emissions Emissions Avoided 480 Million Metric Tons = 1,500 Supertankers Fuel Saved 200 Billion Liters = 5.8 Million Tanker Trucks 2.0 x Equator Global – Digitization of Transportation: Societal Environmental Value 2017 – 2026 Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  10. 10. SDV increase net fuel consumption by 60 Billion Liters for each 1 percent point higher penetration: Driving EVs? - 8 (126) 54 4 Connected ADAS SDV ITS MaaS 1% Point 0% 7% 22% - 76% 76% Penetration = 60 Billion Liters More Fuel (– 30% of Savings) Global – Digitization of Transportation: Impact of 1% Point Penetration on Fuel 2017–26 [%/ Billion Liters] 47% Empty Miles: Case for Electrification? More Fuel Consumption Less Fuel Consumption Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  11. 11. At 10% of global car population, MaaS has the potential to make 1.7 billion people mobile, especially in Asia & Africa 344.3 458.9 606.2 788.0 995.4 72.3 100.6 139.0 187.3 247.2 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.6% 9.5% Africa Middle East Latin America Asia Pac Eastern Europe & CIS Western Europe North America Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Impact of Global MaaS Fleet on MaaS Members by Region [# MM] Current V@S Model 2026 Mobility-as-a-Service Fleet in Percent of Total Car Population MaaS Members [# MM] Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  12. 12. MaaS is set to shift new car sales from personal owners in mature markets to emerging markets and fleets -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.6% 9.5% North America Western Europe Eastern Europe & CIS Asia Pac Latin America Middle East Africa World Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Impact of Global MaaS Fleet on Cars Shed/ Sold by Region [# MM] Current V@S Model 2026 Mobility-as-a-Service Fleet in Percent of Total Car Population MaaS Fleet Sold [# ‘000] Cars Shed [# ‘000] Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  13. 13. Over 60 Million jobs created for society, fleet owners, ITS and insurers make up for lost jobs of drivers and others (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Other Losers Drivers Other Winners Oil ITS Insurer Owner Society Global – Digitization of Transportation: Job Creation & Migration by Stakeholder [Million Jobs] 2) 1) 1) Rental, Medical, Legal Industry 2) Auto, MSP, New Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  14. 14. 15% 19% 20% 24% 25% 33% 41% 45% 31% 22% 33% 28% 25% 20% 22% 17% 13% 17% 25% 27% 17% 19% 15% 19% 19% 15% 11% 12% 18% 21% 11% 15% 22% 26% 11% 9% 16% 8% 10% 4% Western Europe North America Eastern Europe Latin America World Asia Pac Middle East Africa ADAS ITS Connected MaaS SDV V@S per vehicle type varies across the globe = different digitization of transportation priorities for regions & countries Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017 – 2026 @ 7% Discount by Region & Vehicle Type [%] $5.0 Trillion $1,812 $1,480 $928 $389 $465 V@S Rest of World Latin America North America Western Europe Asia Pac 1) Eastern Europe & CIS, Africa, Middle East 1) Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
  15. 15. Want a deeper drive? andreasmai99@gmail.com Digitization of Road Transportation Global Value at Stake Regional Comparison Different Priorities Regional Strategies Value for Money Stakeholder Strategies Winners and Losers

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