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Pathway to a Resilient
Future for Dorset
Peter Head
@peterheadCBE
#dorset
Supporting the creation of an EU and
Global hub for trade and business
Providing a planning tool to prioritise investment
...
__ Growing global instability
Contents
Section 1
Section 2 __ Global Action for
resilience
Section 3 __Observatory to Coll...
1. Growing global instability
Our Shrinking Earth
Population growing at 80m per year
YEAR
Hectares of Land Per Capita
USA 9.5 UK 5.8 China 2.3 India 1.3
China’s Ecological Footprint growing at 4% per year
=100 million hectares of new land per year
Industrial development is polluting and wasteful
Air pollution alone costs the UK between
£9-19 billion annually in health...
HDI-Ecological Footprint Graph
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Dorset
The UK National Ecosystem Assessment concluded in
2011 that 30% of ecosystems are in decline, and many
others are in a red...
2. Global action for
resilience
SDSN Action Agenda Report
Sustainable Development Solutions Network
In 2013 China changed the legal
constitution for development
towards the “Ecological
Civilisation”
• To take a scientific ...
The Circular Economy
THE ELLEN MACARTHUR FOUNDATION
‘The evolution of our economy from an increasingly resource-
constrain...
Moving from Ownership to Services
‘Innovative business models, especially changing
from ownership to performance-based pay...
Competitive Dorset
How economy will improve
from substantial net savings on material and energy costs,
improved mitigation...
Castlepoint Electricity – ‘Watts Up!’
- 2005 annual electricity bill = £138,000 – 2,045 KWHRS
- 2013 annual electricity bi...
ENERGY WATER
FOOD RAW MATERIALS
By 2030 world needs 30% more water, 40% more energy & 50% more food
Resource Efficiency
11.1 Waste and the circular economy
Materials and Waste –Systems Approach
Hillier, Graham. “Construction Products for a Sustainable Society”
Sustainability - ...
Food, paper, cardboard, metal recycling
1. A Regional Approach Is Fundamental
2. Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated
regional plann...
Public
Sector
Geographies
Private
Sector
Research
NGO
&
Philanthropy
Specialisms
Sectors
TEST
TEST stepped into the space
...
3. Observatory to Collaboratory
Licence Form
Region
Application name
Organisation
Partnership agreement
Technical support service
Dorset land use
75% agriculture
11% woodland
12% built up/other
Earth(in solar system)
Simulator
Region Simulator
A planning tool to prioritise
investment
www.icesfoundation.orgwww.ecose...
In the last twenty years, the world has
• Deployed a global, high-bandwidth network
• Created a population of over 1 billi...
Computer processing capacity
Crowd-sourced data Apps and sensors
nativi@iia.cnr.it
empoweredby Brokering Framework
Data brokering framework linked to Systems Model Engine
The system of community life
Syn City City resources IIER Economics
EFI Forestry PROFILE Soil-agriculture
Climate model data
Earth observation and ground sensors
for land use data
Soil and
geology
PROFILE
Government data eg demographics, employment
Crowd-sourced agent Data – mobility 4G 5G 6G
Resource flows Sankey Diagrams
Integrated Sustainable
Infrastructure
transport
logistics and waste
management
sewerage, potable and
non-potable water
ene...
Economic Region
Social, Env,
Economic
Targets
Data Processor
Boundaries
Economic Region
Social, Env,
Economic
TargetsPower
Water Treatment
Industry
Mining
Building
cluster
Railway
BIM
IIMProcess...
BIPV on roof
Thin film photovoltaics are factory
applied to the roof sheeting,
offering a robust and aesthetically
pleasin...
"Regional
collaborative
intelligence"
Dorset Collaboratory
43
Education
On-line science, engineering, maths,
economics, social science,
politics, humanities
MOOCSline
Gaming
for sch...
The system of community life
Ecology Health
Air Water Soil
Quality
Human Health
well-being nutrition,
life-span, healthcare
costs
Labour- skill, job
av...
- 2 bee hives put at back
of centre.
- Bees forage in
Townsend housing
estate next door.
- Local residents of
Edentide Hom...
Art and
Culture
Community Leadership
and Cultural Planning
“Trust”
4. Funding and opportunities
The Open-Source, Agent-based Urban-Rural
Resource and Economics Systems Platform Model
Integrated urban systems design/planning and
procurement for sustainability and resilience
Now Where we could be with syst...
5th
Strategic planning and investment for flood protection
5th June 2014
Output
Successful
improvement in
energy-water-food
security and quality of
life
“Project
portfolio”
Evidence-
based ‘trust...
5. The way forward
Supporting the creation of an EU and
Global hub in Dorset
CHINA
NDRC
MOHURD
APEC
Eco Demo Regions
International Centre
Cho...
Regional-Global
collaborative
intelligenceFinance
and
law
Accountancy
TEST “Accelerator Scale-Up Fund”
Build open source platform
& set it up in demo regions
using loan
Demonstration region sa...
Dorset LEP can be the first EU demonstration region to show
transformational change to a resilient inclusive high quality ...
Thank you
peter.head@ecosequestrust.org
Pathway to a Resilent Dorset - Workshop Presentation - Peter Head
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Pathway to a Resilent Dorset - Workshop Presentation - Peter Head

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The Ecological Sequestration Trust (TEST) platform is an open-source, free IP city-region platform for collaborative, low-carbon, planning and investment, which integrates human-ecological-economic systems.

In order for Dorset to 'grow through business enterprise, whilst safeguarding the environment’, a select group of leaders will debate whether The Ecological Sequestration Trust (TEST) integrated platform is a good solution for the county. TEST is an open-source, free IP city-region platform for collaborative, low-carbon, planning and investment. It integrates human-ecological-economic systems; a system which calculates the current resource flows from human and ecological activity (e.g. in soils, air, water, industrial plants and infrastructure) and enables economically beneficial urban-rural resource management to be funded and implemented through ‘good’ projects, together with insurance against extreme risks with an integrated focus on energy, water and food security.

The Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), Bournemouth University and Mouchel have agreed to support a short study to investigate whether The Ecological Sequestration Trust integrated planning and investment platform (TEST), is a good option for Dorset to help ‘deliver growth through business enterprise, whilst safeguarding the environment’. Our objective is to support good governance for sustainable development and explain the very latest methods of using data and systems integration in decision making.

What is the TEST platform? TEST is an open-source regional platform for collaborative, low-carbon, planning and investment. It integrates human-ecological-economic systems; a system which calculates the current resource flows from human and ecological activity (e.g. in soils, air, water, industrial plants and infrastructure) and enables economically beneficial urban-rural resource management to be funded and implemented through ‘good’ projects, together with insurance against extreme risks with an integrated focus on energy, water and food security.

Why would Dorset benefit from it? Dorset prides itself on its business, social and natural environment. All of these must be nurtured in order to grow. Business leaders and governments acknowledge that growth and development needs a new operating model that is less dependent on primary energy and material inputs. However, unless resource use and supply chains are holistically understood, this can be a challenge. Easy access to robust data, which can be converted into useful information that builds knowledge and understanding, is crucial for good decision making and development in all sectors...

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Pathway to a Resilent Dorset - Workshop Presentation - Peter Head

  1. 1. Pathway to a Resilient Future for Dorset Peter Head @peterheadCBE #dorset
  2. 2. Supporting the creation of an EU and Global hub for trade and business Providing a planning tool to prioritise investment for resilient economic growth that embraces rural and urban communities Attracting inward investment to create a more competitive lower cost economy with more jobs and better services Leadership for a Resilient Future for Dorset
  3. 3. __ Growing global instability Contents Section 1 Section 2 __ Global Action for resilience Section 3 __Observatory to Collaboratory __ Funding and opportunitiesSection 4 Section 5 __ The way forward
  4. 4. 1. Growing global instability
  5. 5. Our Shrinking Earth Population growing at 80m per year YEAR Hectares of Land Per Capita USA 9.5 UK 5.8 China 2.3 India 1.3
  6. 6. China’s Ecological Footprint growing at 4% per year =100 million hectares of new land per year
  7. 7. Industrial development is polluting and wasteful Air pollution alone costs the UK between £9-19 billion annually in health damages
  8. 8. HDI-Ecological Footprint Graph Malaysia Hong Kong Dorset
  9. 9. The UK National Ecosystem Assessment concluded in 2011 that 30% of ecosystems are in decline, and many others are in a reduced or degraded state.
  10. 10. 2. Global action for resilience
  11. 11. SDSN Action Agenda Report Sustainable Development Solutions Network
  12. 12. In 2013 China changed the legal constitution for development towards the “Ecological Civilisation” • To take a scientific approach to development • To make Ecological Progress China now has an environmental court and a circular economy law Global Action - China
  13. 13. The Circular Economy THE ELLEN MACARTHUR FOUNDATION ‘The evolution of our economy from an increasingly resource- constrained ‘take-make-dispose’ model towards one that is circular and re- generative by intention poses a huge opportunity for business innovation. This report highlights the significant economic opportunities, both immediate and long-term, that are available across the EU-a recurring 3-4% GDP cost saving. The report offers the catalyst for a sector wide re-design revolution’.
  14. 14. Moving from Ownership to Services ‘Innovative business models, especially changing from ownership to performance-based payment models, are instrumental in translating products designed for reuse into attractive value propositions ‘Enablers to improve cross-cycle and cross-sector performance include higher transparency, alignment of incentives, and the establishment of industry standards for better cross-chain and cross-sector collaboration; access to financing and risk management tools; regulation and infrastructure development; and—last but not least— education, both to increase general awareness and to create the skill base to drive circular innovation’.
  15. 15. Competitive Dorset How economy will improve from substantial net savings on material and energy costs, improved mitigation of volatility and supply risks (eg renewables), higher multipliers due to sectoral shifts and reduced externalities How companies will win by creating new profit pools and competitive advantage, building resilience against some of today’s most strategic challenges, and the opportunity for growth How consumers and users will win by gaining more choice, experiencing fewer hassles from premature obsolescence, and enjoying improved service quality
  16. 16. Castlepoint Electricity – ‘Watts Up!’ - 2005 annual electricity bill = £138,000 – 2,045 KWHRS - 2013 annual electricity bill = £115,000 – 1,211 KWHRS - No increase to tenants.
  17. 17. ENERGY WATER FOOD RAW MATERIALS By 2030 world needs 30% more water, 40% more energy & 50% more food Resource Efficiency
  18. 18. 11.1 Waste and the circular economy
  19. 19. Materials and Waste –Systems Approach Hillier, Graham. “Construction Products for a Sustainable Society” Sustainability - Steel and the Environment Conference. 2 November 2004
  20. 20. Food, paper, cardboard, metal recycling
  21. 21. 1. A Regional Approach Is Fundamental 2. Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act 3. Uniting economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape interventions with a common/credible economic analyses Approach to Sustainable Regions Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases Solid waste Degraded waters Manufactured goods INTERLAND Manufactured goods Fuels and Raw materials Water Food Land and sea
  22. 22. Public Sector Geographies Private Sector Research NGO & Philanthropy Specialisms Sectors TEST TEST stepped into the space between existing institutions to facilitate systems integration and scale up Specialisms Degraded waters Manufactured goods
  23. 23. 3. Observatory to Collaboratory
  24. 24. Licence Form Region Application name Organisation Partnership agreement Technical support service
  25. 25. Dorset land use 75% agriculture 11% woodland 12% built up/other
  26. 26. Earth(in solar system) Simulator Region Simulator A planning tool to prioritise investment www.icesfoundation.orgwww.ecosequestrust.org
  27. 27. In the last twenty years, the world has • Deployed a global, high-bandwidth network • Created a population of over 1 billion Internet users • And another population of some 6 billion mobile telephones • Embedded some billions of sensors in our environment and infrastructure • Invented globally-integrated business processes
  28. 28. Computer processing capacity
  29. 29. Crowd-sourced data Apps and sensors
  30. 30. nativi@iia.cnr.it empoweredby Brokering Framework Data brokering framework linked to Systems Model Engine
  31. 31. The system of community life
  32. 32. Syn City City resources IIER Economics EFI Forestry PROFILE Soil-agriculture
  33. 33. Climate model data
  34. 34. Earth observation and ground sensors for land use data Soil and geology PROFILE
  35. 35. Government data eg demographics, employment Crowd-sourced agent Data – mobility 4G 5G 6G
  36. 36. Resource flows Sankey Diagrams
  37. 37. Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure transport logistics and waste management sewerage, potable and non-potable water energy agriculture, landscape and urban design
  38. 38. Economic Region Social, Env, Economic Targets Data Processor Boundaries
  39. 39. Economic Region Social, Env, Economic TargetsPower Water Treatment Industry Mining Building cluster Railway BIM IIMProcessor Boundaries Agriculture, grassland Forest Data Processor Boundaries Energy Water Mass goods &minerals Agents
  40. 40. BIPV on roof Thin film photovoltaics are factory applied to the roof sheeting, offering a robust and aesthetically pleasing solution. TSC on walls Transpired solar collector on south facing walls draws warm air into the building to provide space heating either directly or to be stored for later use. Storage Warm air from the TSC is stored in a tank supplying the heating system. Electricity generated by the photovoltaics is stored in batteries. Water purification Rainfall on the roof passes over a photoactive TiO2 coated metal roof sheeting, which removes organic matter. This is collected, passed through a filter and stored for use in the house. Release Energy generated by the building envelope is released throughout the house via heating, lighting, electrical equipment and water use. B u i l d i n g s a s P o w e r S t a t i o n s SPECIFIC http://www.specific.eu.com
  41. 41. "Regional collaborative intelligence" Dorset Collaboratory
  42. 42. 43 Education On-line science, engineering, maths, economics, social science, politics, humanities MOOCSline Gaming for school childrenCockpit
  43. 43. The system of community life
  44. 44. Ecology Health Air Water Soil Quality Human Health well-being nutrition, life-span, healthcare costs Labour- skill, job availability, salary, productivity Training & Education- skill and knowledge through learning and education Human agents and their well-being Economy Asset Value Goods High quality Inclusive resilient growth “Green, circular, Knowledge economy”
  45. 45. - 2 bee hives put at back of centre. - Bees forage in Townsend housing estate next door. - Local residents of Edentide Homes are now able to come into the centre and buy jars of honey produced from there own gardens. - 45 jars were produced in 2013. Castlepoint Bees
  46. 46. Art and Culture Community Leadership and Cultural Planning “Trust”
  47. 47. 4. Funding and opportunities
  48. 48. The Open-Source, Agent-based Urban-Rural Resource and Economics Systems Platform Model
  49. 49. Integrated urban systems design/planning and procurement for sustainability and resilience Now Where we could be with systems thinking and performance based procurement • Sequential and silo-ed approach – conventional economic assessment dominates how we design (cities, policies, technology interventions etc) • Short term political and finance cycles dominate economic plane • Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy, urban and rural viewed separately) • Social benefit at the end of the line – abstract relationship to earlier planes . • INTEGRATED DESIGN • INTEGRATED PLANNING • ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN DESIGN PLANNING DEVELOPMENT
  50. 50. 5th Strategic planning and investment for flood protection 5th June 2014
  51. 51. Output Successful improvement in energy-water-food security and quality of life “Project portfolio” Evidence- based ‘trusted’ independent model Regional Investment Fund - ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’ 1-2% GDP per annum Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds Return Investment Assurance “Attracting inward investment into Dorset” 1% GDP= £160m/yr
  52. 52. 5. The way forward
  53. 53. Supporting the creation of an EU and Global hub in Dorset CHINA NDRC MOHURD APEC Eco Demo Regions International Centre Chongqing University UK-EU Demo region Dorset LEP IFS DFID Cities Alliance Country programme 5 Centres African Centre for Cities African Urban Research Initiative Mainland Europe ICLEI GIZ Climate KIC-IFS Global UNEP UN Habitat UNDP UNSDSN UCCRN Mongolia Demo region UN ADB FCO Brazil Rio de Janeiro Academy of Science
  54. 54. Regional-Global collaborative intelligenceFinance and law Accountancy
  55. 55. TEST “Accelerator Scale-Up Fund” Build open source platform & set it up in demo regions using loan Demonstration region savings enable pay back of set-up loan costs over 7 years plus interest & attract funds for more regions Platform development funders to get use of and value from platform • DFID • Climate KIC • ESA • China Government &regions • MNB’s $ $ Independent Fund Manager
  56. 56. Dorset LEP can be the first EU demonstration region to show transformational change to a resilient inclusive high quality growth model in which communities can participate. Local businesses can develop new business models and gain access to global markets. Inward investment can be attracted. Understanding extinction and demonstrating resilience
  57. 57. Thank you peter.head@ecosequestrust.org

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