CrowdWorx Collective Intelligence Enterprise Prediction Markets


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These are some introductory slides on the CrowdWorx prediction markets by Analyx. Prediction Markets are an Enterprise 2.0 tool for harnessing collective intelligence in an organization for business forecasting. You can try out a free live demo system at

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CrowdWorx Collective Intelligence Enterprise Prediction Markets

  1. 1. Harnessing the Collective Intelligence of your company Prediction Markets (PM) in Corporate
  2. 2. Idea: Bundling the collective intelligence of individuals inside andoutside organizations for better forecasts Product managers Own sales force Other departments or business units Prediction Market Optional: External analysts Optional: Consumers and experts etc.
  3. 3. Why EPM? Within a crowd, everybody has insights – a piece ofthe puzzle; EPMs aggregate these insights to high-precisionforecasts Crowdsourcing Prediction Market Wisdom of Efficiently aggregate Crowds distributed information . Proven high-precision forecasts on various topics Forecasts are updated automatically in real-time Lower cost than traditional forecasting methods * Sources:
  4. 4. Crowdsourcing: Participants trade their opinions on an EPMwebsite; with only 2 clicks everybody can participate Results PredictionWeb browser in Excel after Market website a few days
  5. 5. START: On the main page users see all ongoing forecasts of thecompany and can choose in which ones to participate
  6. 6. Example “Forecast unit sales for next 4 calendar weeks (CW)”Sales can be forecasted at any level, e.g. by region, by segment. Pick the week you want to forecast
  7. 7. Users have an incentive to give their best forecast in order to win;Players who don’t have knowledge will self-select not to forecast The more confident Enter your you are the more you forecast can stake
  8. 8. Results of all forecasts go to an Excel report for management The crowd forecast is updated in real- time
  9. 9. Recap and benefits of Prediction Markets Crowd- PredictionConcept sourcing markets BenefitsIncentive to forecast as Proven higher forecastinggood as possible accuracy Forecast is updatedPerformance-based rewards automatically in real-timeInteraction with the crowd Low costPeople also report how sure they Simple 2-click usageare about their knowledge Fun & recognition
  10. 10. Industry leaders and global organizations use PredictionMarkets to improve their decisions by using more reliable andmore accurate forecasts EXAMPLES Sales forecasting Market forecasting Various areas Project management (=Enterprise 2.0) Global FMCG manufacturer Demand planning Innovation evaluation Project of reseller partner Global agri- Change management business Trend forecasting (project by a CrowdWorx reseller) „True democracy Large German retailer … in real-time“ Sales forecasting Sources: Chen at al. (2002): Information Aggregation Mechanisms; McKinsey Quarterly, 2008, No. 1; Analyx projects
  11. 11. Example: General Election in Germany 2009 Forecasting accuracy of pollsters vs. CrowdWorx Prediction Market 100% 96,2% Accurate and fast 95% 93,6% 91,5% forecasts for a 90,5% 90,0% 90% 88,6% 88,4% fraction of the cost of 87,8% traditional surveys 85% 80% Forsa Allens CROWD FG Emnid Infratest GMS ARD bach WORX Wahlen dimap Wahltipp Number of 1000 1000 89 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000participants
  12. 12. Example: What will be the planted soybean area in the US US Soybean Acreage, in mio. acres9085 Social Forecasting80 Actual acreage 74,5 million acres gathers employee75 Crowd forecast opinions until the70 74,4 million acres social forecast6560 achieves an optimal55 equilibrium50 2-Jun 6-Jun 10-Jun 14-Jun 18-Jun
  13. 13. Example: Sales forecasting at a large retail chain Large German retail chain Forecasting sales in a retail chain (Share of product in total sales, in %) 2,5% Each dot is one Correlation between Social 2,0% forecasted product forecast & actual sales after first 5 weeks of pilot: 81%outcome Actual 1,5% Cost of Social Forecast are 1,0% 10x lower than Market research 0,5% 0,0% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% EPM forecast
  14. 14. Example: Demand planning at a global FMCG manufacturer Large German Forecasting accuracy of internal forecasts retail chain vs. CrowdWorx forecasts , in % Crowd Internal forecasting experts’ accuracy forecasting • CrowdWorx surpasses the accuracy client’s current forecasting method 85,3% 69,5% • Forecasting effort is Crowd CrowdWorx reduced Internal Internal Henkel 90% 81% 84% 84% 63% 61% November December January
  15. 15. Areas of application: EPMs allow for better management decisions in avariety of areas (Examples)Sales & • How many units are we going to sell in the 3rd & 4th quarter of this year?Operational • What will be our market share in the compact segment in China in 2008?Planning • Which SKUs are most likely to have stock outs in 06/2009? • In which of 7 currently debated concepts of alternative propulsion should weInnovation invest scarce R&D resources?Management • Should we try to leapfrog the current hybrid drive technology and concentrate on mastering pure electrical engines instead?Project • What is a realistic deadline for the software project “GoldenTrust”?ManagementCa • How much capacity should we plan for maintenance work next month?pacity Planning • What will be the final amount invested in the development of XXX? • Which action/incentive will have the highest impact on productivity?HR • How many engineers do we need on project F87 to hold the deadline? • What will be the level of R&D employee satisfaction next quarter?Cross-company • What will be the market volume of diesel vehicles in 2009?Collaborative • By September 30th, what will be the quarterly GDP growth in China?Forecasting • Will Blu-Ray or HD DVD become the industry standard? The volatility of today’s business environment calls for innovations in real-time forecasting
  16. 16. Summary: An excellent EPM platform is a basic prerequisite forexcellent forecasts – but its only one out of 6 success factors forEPMs
  17. 17. CrowdWorx can be accessed via any web browser or fromwithin the company Intranet Hosting on Integration into CrowdWorx-Server Client Intranet •No IT footprint at the client •Maximum security •Custom visual layout, e.g. •Easier access for clients IT clients corporate ID staff •Low setup costs •Employees meet EPM in the familiar surrounding of •Easy to include external the company Intranet partners or lead-users
  18. 18. For white papers, case studies and more visit our website E-Mail: Web: Phone: +49-30-224-121-76 (Berlin) +49-89-61 066-793 (Munich) +48-61-885-77-02 (Poznan) +1-617-763-8082 (Boston) Fax: +48-61-885-77-15