Climate change security africa busby

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Climate change security africa busby

  1. 1. Climate  Security  Vulnerability  in  Africa:   Strategic  Implica7ons  for  the  United  States     Josh  Busby     Associate  Professor   LBJ  School  of  Public  Affairs,  University  of  Texas  at  Aus=n     American  Security  Project,  Washington,  DC   December  2013   1  
  2. 2. Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS)   •  Causal  connec=ons   between  climate  change   and  security   •  Governance  and  climate   change   •  Foreign  aid  and   adapta=on     2  
  3. 3. Background
  4. 4. Overview   •  Under  what  condi=ons  could  U.S.  strategic  interests   and  na=onal  security  be  affected  by  climate  change?   •  Where  do  U.S.  strategic  interests  intersect  with   climate  security  vulnerability  in  Africa?   •  What  are  the  implica=ons  of  these  findings?     4  
  5. 5. Impetus   •  “With  a  French  military   incursion  into  Mali,  terrorism   spreading,  Somalia  struggling   for  a  foothold,  and  narco-­‐  and   arms  trafficking  across  West   Africa,  among  other  security   concerns,  the  U.S.  military  has   plenty  to  worry  about.”   –  2013  Foreign  Policy  ar5cle   “Africa  on  the  Brain  in  the   Pentagon”     •  “[C]limate  change  effects  in  Africa   destabilize  fragile  states  by  overloading   the  poli=cal  systems  and  eroding   governmental  legi=macy.  Many  of  these   states  determine  con=nued  US  success   in  achieving  na=onal  security  objec=ves,   such  as  securing  strategic  mineral  and   fuel  source  access;  maintaining  freedom   of  naviga=on  covering  choke  points  and   sea  lines  of  communica=on;  comba=ng   terrorism;  maintaining  geopoli=cal   influence;  promo=ng  democracy;  and,   establishing  strong  market  economies.”     –  2011  Defense  Science  Board  report  on   climate  change  and  security       5  
  6. 6. Overview   Ø  Jennifer  Hazen,  Todd  G.  Smith,   Nisha  Krishnan,  Mesfin  Bekalo   Ø  Overlays  of  strategic   significance  on  base  layer  of   climate  security  vulnerability     •  Strategic  interests   •  Climate  security   vulnerability   •  Strategic  overlays   •  Implica=ons   •  Applica=ons   6  
  7. 7. Strategic  Interests   7  
  8. 8. Strategic  Interests   Ø Direct  threat  to  homeland   Ø Threats  to  Americans   Ø Threats  to  interests   –  Allies   –  Cri=cal  security  partners   –  Key  nodes  in  the  global  economy   –  Key  pathways  for  transporta=on  of  goods   –  Natural  resources  and  economic  markets   –  Violent  extremist  groups     8  
  9. 9. Climate  Security  Vulnerability     9  
  10. 10. Climate  Security  Vulnerability  Model  (CSVM  3.0)   Ø  Where  large  numbers  of   people  at  risk  of  death  from   exposure  to  climate  related   hazards   Ø  Chronic   Ø  Rela=ve  to  rest  of  Africa   Ø  Security     •  Climate  Related  Hazard   Exposure     •  Popula=on  Density   •  Household  and   Community  Resilience   •  Governance   hBp://ccaps.aiddata.org/ climate     10  
  11. 11. ! 11  
  12. 12. Comparing  2.0  to  3.0   2.0   3.0   ! ! 12  
  13. 13. Changes  from  2.0  to  3.0   •  •  •  •  •  Mul=plica=ve  model   New  normaliza=on  procedure  on  0  to  1  scale   New  admin  1  shape  files  for  Africa   New,  revised  indicators  in  physical  basket   New  sub-­‐na=onal  indicators  in  household   basket   13  
  14. 14. Strategic  Overlays     14  
  15. 15. Strategic  Interests   •  Raw  Materials   –  Oil   –  Cri=cal  minerals   •  Terrorism  Events   •  Piracy  Events   •  US  Embassies/Consulates     15  
  16. 16. ! 16  
  17. 17. ! 17  
  18. 18. ! 18  
  19. 19. ! 19  
  20. 20. ! 20  
  21. 21. Implica7ons   21  
  22. 22. Possible  Links  Between  Climate  and  Security     22  
  23. 23. Causal  Links     •  •  •  •  Causal:  Nega=ve  security  outcomes   Causal:  Posi=ve  security  outcomes   Security  spillovers   Independent  and  unrelated   23  
  24. 24. Applica7ons   24  
  25. 25. 25  
  26. 26. Somalia   Security  Outcomes  of  Interest   •  •  •  •  •  •  Conflict  Onset  (1991)   Conflict  Con=nua=on   (1991  -­‐  )   Leadership  Turnover   (1991)   Famine  (1992,  2011)   Terrorism  Events   (mid-­‐2000s)   Piracy  (mid-­‐2000s)   •  Did  climate-­‐related  factors   play  a  role  in  any  of  these   outcomes?   –  Answer:  Most  clearly  in  the   famines.  No  direct  trigger   before  the  1991  coup  and   violence.  Possible  trend  in  the   lead  up  to  1991  as  well   con=nua=on  of  violence.   Limited  evidence  associated   terrorism  and  piracy,  though   perhaps  indirectly  through   economic  growth   26  
  27. 27. General  Trends   27  
  28. 28. General  Trends  -­‐  Maystadt   ! 28  
  29. 29. Specific  Events  –  1991  Coup   0 Jan 1995 Jan 1994 Jan 1993 Jan 1992 Jan 1991 Jan 1990 Jan 1989 0 2 4 6 Wet MSCP over 1 months Dry MSCP over 12 months .5 1 1.5 2 8 Rainfall Anomalies in Somalia June 1989-June 1995 time Dry MSCP over 12 months Wet MSCP over 1 months 29  
  30. 30. Specific  Events  –  1991  Coup  -­‐  Trends   Jan 1994 Jan 1992 Jan 1990 Jan 1988 Jan 1986 Jan 1984 Jan 1982 0 Dry MSCP over 12 months .5 1 1.5 2 Dry Anomalies in Somalia time 30  
  31. 31. Jan 2015 Jan 2010 Jan 2005 Jan 2000 Jan 1995 Jan 1990 0 Dry MSCP over 12 months .5 1 1.5 2 Specific  Events  –  Famines   Dry Anomalies in Somalia time 31  
  32. 32. Terrorism  Events   32  
  33. 33. Piracy  Events   33  
  34. 34. Basket  Maps   34  
  35. 35. ! 35  
  36. 36. CLIMATE  RELATED  HAZARDS  DATA  SOURCES     36  
  37. 37. ! 37  
  38. 38. POPULATION  DENSITY  DATA  SOURCES     38  
  39. 39. 39  
  40. 40. HOUSEHOLD  RESILIENCE  DATA  SOURCES     40  
  41. 41. ! 41  
  42. 42. GOVERNANCE  DATA  SOURCES     42  
  43. 43. External  Valida7on   43  
  44. 44. ! 44  
  45. 45. ! 45  
  46. 46. ! 46  
  47. 47. 47  

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