9. Predicting Action → Prescribing Reaction
User Probability of Churn
Reaction Model
with meta
parameters
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Optimize Meta
Parameters
10. Conclusions
● Choose right variables for user behaviour inspired by social
psychology
● Good variables are better than sophisticated predictive model
● Use meta-parameter reaction models rather than hand-coded
rules for engagement.
● Optimize those parameters to maximize engagement
● Tap into the wisdom of crowd not your instincts