Modul 2 proses agregasi dan peramlan i


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Modul 2 proses agregasi dan peramlan i

  1. 1. 2’nd MODUL Aggregate Planning and Forecasting I
  2. 2. Production Planning  Production planning is a statement to the production plans in the aggregate.  Production planning associated with the determination of the volume, timeliness of completion, capacity utilization and load balancing.  Production planning is a means of communication between the top management and manufacturing.
  3. 3. Purpose  As an initial step to determine the production activity as a reference more detailed planning of the aggregate plan item in the master production schedule.  As input resource plan planning resource that can be developed to support production planning.  Stability of production and labor to fluctuations in demand.
  4. 4. Aggregate Planning  Aggregate planning is the planning that was made to determine the total demand of all elements of production and the amount of labor required Combines appropriate resources into general terms  If the products are similar, an “average” item can represent the aggregate unit  If there are variety of products then the aggregate unit may be  Weight (tons of steel)  Volume (gallons of gasoline)  Amount of work required (hours of labor)  Dollar value (value of the inventory in dollar)
  5. 5. Aggregate Planning  Benefits of Using Aggregate Planning:  Ease of data processing  Accuracy results obtained  Easy to see and understand the mechanisms of production systems that occur in the implementation of the plan.
  6. 6. Forecasting  The process of predicting the values of a certain quantity, over a certain time horizon, based on past trends and/or a number of relevant factors.  An estimate of future demand & provides the basis for planning decisions
  7. 7. Forecasting Techniques • based on opinion and intuition Qualitative forecasting • uses mathematical models and historical data to make forecasts. Quantitative forecasting
  8. 8. Qualitative Methods  Delphi method  Management Estimate or Panel Consensus  Market Research  Structured Group Method  Historical Analogy
  9. 9. Quantitative Methods The use of qualitative methods:  Does not require quantitative data  Element of subjectivity very big influence in forecasting results  Good for long-term forecasting
  10. 10. Quantitative Methods • based on assumption that the future is an extention of the past. Historical data is used to predict future demand. Time series forecasting • assumes that one or more factors (dependent variables) predict future demand. Causal
  11. 11. Time Series Forecasting Time Series Regresion Konstant Linier Cyclic Quadratic Smoothing Average Moving Average Single Double Centred Exponential Smoothing Single Double/Trend Winter
  12. 12. Data Plot
  13. 13. Forecast Error Analysis  The forecast error at time period is the difference between the actual data value and the forecast value for that period. Notes: e= error )(')()( tdtdte
  14. 14. Forecast Error Analysis (Cont.)  Mean Absolute Error (MAE)/Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)  Sum Square Error (SSE)  Mean Square Error (MSE)
  15. 15.  Precentage Error (PE)  Mean Absolute Precentage Error (MAPE)  Standar Error Estimation (SSE)