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Geng Xiao (Beijing Sept 2010)


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Geng Xiao (Beijing Sept 2010)

  1. 1. China’s Search for Macro Stability and its Global Implications<br />肖耿<br />XIAO Geng<br />Columbia Global Centers | East Asia<br /><br />September 24-25, 2010<br />
  2. 2. 2<br />China’s Macro Challenges Before and after the Global Financial Crisis<br /><ul><li>China’s macroeconomic conditions and capital market development before and after September 2008 </li></ul>1. Surplus labor (or hidden unemployment)<br />Surplus capital (excessive liquidity)<br /><ul><li>is more about China’s inflation/deflation rather than about China’s competitiveness; Inflation and RMB appreciation are substitutes in the longer run and they are equivalent channels for the adjustment of China’s domestic price level relative to that of US (real appreciation of RMB)</li></ul>3. Price distortion: inflation, price control and dominance of large SOEs<br /><ul><li>Rising prices in food, oil, raw materials
  3. 3. Rising wages due to inflation and labor contract law
  4. 4. Inefficient use of energy, natural resources and environment.</li></ul>4. High volatility and bubbles in the property and stock markets<br />
  5. 5. 3<br />China’s Surplus Labor and Employment Challenge <br /><ul><li>In 2006 the total employment in China is 764 million
  6. 6. 119 million of migrant workers (average monthly wage of $120)
  7. 7. 362 million rural workers.
  8. 8. 481 million unskilled workers (119+362)
  9. 9. 481 million rural and migrant workers in China face 2 choices
  10. 10. stay in the villages
  11. 11. find jobs in the cities
  12. 12. If migrant workers stop working, their unemployment will not be counted in the official unemployment statistics
  13. 13. This hidden unemployment increased sharply this year according to observations by local officials in coastal provinces, especially after the start of the global financial crisis in September 2008</li></li></ul><li>4<br />China’s Surplus Capital<br />Unit: USD Billion<br />
  14. 14. 5<br />China is Subsidizing the Whole World due to Inefficient Investment!<br /><ul><li>Price controls on energy and raw materials
  15. 15. which distort prices for major factor inputs
  16. 16. leading to over-use of energy and raw materials and environmental damages
  17. 17. Unclear ownership or state ownership of natural resources
  18. 18. which distorts prices for many natural resources
  19. 19. leads to over-use of natural resources and environmental damages
  20. 20. Large SOEs in the monopoly sectors
  21. 21. distort prices of their products and services
  22. 22. Leading to over-use (i.e. electricity) or under-use (i.e. telecom services) of their products and services
  23. 23. China is effectively subsidizing consumers of Made-in-China products around the world, which is not sustainable! </li></li></ul><li>6<br />SOEs Performed Worse than Non-SOEs but still Dominated in Strategic Sectors and among Large Enterprises<br />Structure and Performance of Top 500 Chinese Enterprises in 2007(%)<br />Source: China’s Top 500 Enterprises, 2007.<br />6<br />
  24. 24. Negative Real Interest Rate (-3% before September 2008)= nominal interest (4%)- inflation rate (7%)<br /><ul><li>Negative real interest rate
  25. 25. which distorts the bench-marking price of capital
  26. 26. leading to the over-use of cheap credit by inefficient projects
  27. 27. instability of the property and stock markets
  28. 28. stock index fell about 60% from the peak in Oct 2007
  29. 29. The distortion in factor prices
  30. 30. makes it difficult to find and finance more efficient projects
  31. 31. effectively raising the transaction costs of surplus capital hiring surplus worker
  32. 32. Root of real negative interest rate
  33. 33. The direct root is inflation
  34. 34. But indirectly, it is currency appreciation and the expectation of appreciation that stopped the central bank from raising the nominal interest rate to fight inflation
  35. 35. When inflation is falling, real interest rate turns positive and high, so the central bank can afford to reduce nominal rate aggressively</li></ul>7<br />
  36. 36. China’s Inflation and Interest Rate since 2007<br />8<br />
  37. 37. 9<br />Real Interest Rate as a Price of Capital<br /><ul><li>Real Interest rate = Nominal Interest Rate – Inflation Rate
  38. 38. Expected Real Interest rate = Expected Nominal Interest Rate – Expected Inflation Rate
  39. 39. Expected Real Interest Rate will guide behavior of investors, producers and consumers since it is the real price of capital (costs to producers and income for consumers/investors).
  40. 40. Expected Nominal Interest Rate will be influenced by the central bank.
  41. 41. Expected inflation rate:
  42. 42. Which rate? CPI, PPI, property price, stock price, wages, commodity prices?
  43. 43. Structural inflation vs inflation driven by fiscal deficit
  44. 44. Inflation vs currency appreciation</li></li></ul><li>10<br />Housing Price and Interest Rate since 2007<br />
  45. 45. China’s Real Mortgage Rates and Mortgage Loans<br />Interest rate and property prices have a negative, though lagging relationship. China’s mortgage outstanding, though growing fast, remains small as a share of total bank loans. It is at around 10% at the end of 2008.<br />Real Interest Rates and Property Prices<br />Mortgage Loan Outstanding<br />Sources: CEIC and BBVA estimates.<br />Source: Wind.<br />
  46. 46. Rising Wage will lead to structural inflation (or/and currency appreciation)<br /><ul><li>According to the Balassa-Samualson theory
  47. 47. Rising productivity in China’s tradable sector (manufacturing) should raise the wages of engineers.
  48. 48. This development should entice workers from the non-tradable sector, such as stylists in hair salons, to shift to the manufacturing sector.
  49. 49. As a result, if there is no surplus labor in the economy, wages for hair stylists will also rise even though there is little productivity gains in the haircutting business.
  50. 50. Increases in wages for all sectors will lead either to inflation or will require a currency appreciation in order to accommodate the increase in price levels stemming from the productivity gains in the manufacturing sector.
  51. 51. Productivity growth in the tradable goods sector is the driver for structural inflation and currency appreciation.
  52. 52. However, before inflation and currency appreciation can take off significantly, the economy first needs to reach a state of full employment.
  53. 53. This is pretty easy for economies like Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong, where full employment was achieved soon after industrialization started.
  54. 54. However, this process will take much longer for China.</li></li></ul><li>Structural Inflation in China<br /><ul><li>The Case of China:
  55. 55. A number of studies have shown that rapid labor productivity growth in China’s industrial sector has occurred and is continuing.
  56. 56. This productivity growth has led to a steady increase in the wages of urban workers.
  57. 57. High and rising urban wages attracted as many as 119 million migrant workers from China’s rural areas to its coastal cities in recent years.
  58. 58. But due to the large pool of rural and migrant labor forces, which may amount to as many as 481 million people, the growth in wages for rural and migrant workers has been very slow until recently.
  59. 59. As a result, inflation has been low and currency appreciation very slow in China during the last decade despite the country’s tremendous growth rates.
  60. 60. However, in the next decade or two, as China’s baby boom generation starts aging and the economy continues to grow rapidly, China is likely to get closer and closer to full employment.
  61. 61. When this happens, China is likely to experience similar rapid structural inflation and/or currency appreciation such as experienced by Japan and Hong Kong. </li></li></ul><li>The Substitution between Inflation in China and RMB Appreciation<br /><ul><li>The 1993-1996 experiences
  62. 62. With little knowledge of sterilization, large inflows of FDI combined with reform and opening after Deng Xiaoping’s Southern Tour in 1992 led to rapid productivity growth as well as double digit inflation in 1993-1995
  63. 63. and then large RMB depreciation in 1996 to correct for the excessive inflation
  64. 64. The experiences since 1997
  65. 65. China experienced brief deflation after the Asian financial crisis
  66. 66. Low inflation combined with rapid productivity growth due to reform and opening (WTO entry) is creating pressure for RMB to appreciate
  67. 67. In 2006 China’s inflation rate is about 1.5%, much lower than the US inflation rate of more than 2.5%.
  68. 68. In 2006, the regular-grade gasoline price increased about 30% in US but only about 15% in China.</li></li></ul><li>What Determines China’s Domestic Price Level Relative to that of US?<br /><ul><li>China’s domestic price level determines the costs of goods made in China to American consumers.
  69. 69. The gap of price levels between China and US is calculated by comparing the nominal dollar exchange rate of the RMB (8 yuan/dollar in 2006) with the PPP dollar exchange rate of RMB for GDP in China (2.6 yuan/dollar in 2006).
  70. 70. In 2006, China’s domestic price level is 2.6/8.0, or 32.5% that of the U.S.
  71. 71. China’s domestic price level is determined by the underlying growth of productivity in China, not by China’s premier, not by the governor of China’s central bank, and not by Congressmen in Washington.
  72. 72. If the RMB appreciates too fast, China will get deflation;
  73. 73. if the RMB appreciates too slowly, China will get inflation.
  74. 74. The combination of actual inflation in China and actual RMB appreciation will then determine China’s actual domestic price level relative to that of U.S. price levels.</li></li></ul><li>Why Should China adopt Inflation-first and appreciation-second strategy?<br /><ul><li>To speed up the growth of China’s domestic price levels, China can of course use either inflation or currency appreciation, or even use both at the same time.
  75. 75. In my view, China should be encouraged to run a stable but low rate of inflation first, say about 5% a year, so as to facilitate the steady growth of its domestic price levels with those in more developed economies.
  76. 76. When structural inflation, which is different from pure monetary inflation, is expected to reach beyond 5%, China should also add currency appreciation as an additional instrument to further absorb the pressure for increases in domestic price levels.
  77. 77. The extent of currency appreciation should be determined by the market in the sense that appreciation would not be so excessive as to push inflation down below 3%.
  78. 78. This inflation- first and appreciation-second strategy
  79. 79. would avoid the risks of both deflation and excessive inflation.
  80. 80. It will also be able to deter currency speculation as speculators would need to worry about inflation in China whenever they bet on the appreciation of RMB.
  81. 81. Speculators and investors can still bet on real estate, which will rise in value with both inflation and appreciation
  82. 82. but the catch-up of prices in property should be viewed as a leading indicator for the catch-up of overall price levels in China
  83. 83. and should not concern the Chinese authorities too much as long as the investors are required to make sizable downpayments for their properties.</li></li></ul><li>Misunderstandings about macroeconomics<br /><ul><li>RMB appreciation/depreciation
  84. 84. is more about China’s inflation/deflation rather than about China’s competitiveness; Inflation and RMB appreciation are substitutes in the longer run and they are equivalent channels for the adjustment of China’s domestic price level relative to that of US (real appreciation of RMB)
  85. 85. Current account surplus
  86. 86. is more about exporting of surplus capital which cannot hire surplus labor productively, than about competitiveness.
  87. 87. China’s competitiveness
  88. 88. is more about declining transaction costs due to reform, rapid technological progress due to opening and globalization, and low labor costs due to large surplus rural labor than exchange rate adjustment and current account imbalance
  89. 89. Bubbles in property and stock markets
  90. 90. is more about low or negative real interest rates and inefficient investment than about exchange rate, current account surplus, inflation or competitiveness</li></li></ul><li>18<br />Thank You!<br />