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European Rail Travel Trends 2020

Key trends until 2020 that will shape the evolution of the passenger rail travel, and its relationships with other modal providers. A presentation by Thomas Drexler, Head of Amadeus Rail

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European Rail Travel Trends 2020

  1. 1. European RailTravel Trends 2020Thomas Drexler © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SAAmadeus Rail
  2. 2. scene Setting the© 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA
  3. 3. Objectives of the studyComprehensive picture of Evaluation of majorEurope’s passenger rail market rail segments Rail 2020Identification of six key trends Spotting new businesscritical to the success of rail opportunities for railways
  4. 4. 20 European countries95%of the Europeanpassenger rail market © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA
  5. 5. 3 segments used in the study High speed rail (>200km/h) Long distance rail (>100km) © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA Short distance
  6. 6. © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SAData from over 100 national and pan-European industry and government agencies
  7. 7. Europe’spassenger railmarket © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA
  8. 8. 10.2 billionpassengers transported in 2011 609 billion © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SApassenger kilometers
  9. 9. 11% pax Long distance © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA 29% 6%High speed Cross-border based on 2011
  10. 10. RussiaGermanyUnited KingdomFranceaccount for60% © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SAof Europeanpassengervolume
  11. 11. © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA
  12. 12. Total growth in passenger numberssince 2000 +54% +54% +53% Russia Poland Ukraine +44% +41% United Kingdom © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA Belgium -14% Switzerland -27% Sweden Germany -30% These countries’ passenger number is growing again since 2011
  13. 13. © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA
  14. 14. 6 key trends© 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA
  15. 15. 1 Liberalisation 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2018 The first railway PASSENGER PASSENGER package: access to The third railway package: The fourth railway package: the trans-European open access rights for open up domestic passenger network on a non- cross-border rail passenger rail markets to competition discriminatory basis. services including and enhance quality. cabotage1 by 2010. © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA FREIGHT Should be completed by The second railway 2016-2018 package: opening of the rail freight market to competition as from 1 January 2007.1 Cabotage is transport of passengers between two points in the same country by a railway registered in another country
  16. 16. Liberalisation in Europeas of 2011 Market closed for commercial domestic passenger services Open access, but no external railways providing domestic passenger services Open access with external © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA railways providing domestic passenger services
  17. 17. 2 New market entrants˃ The potential impact of new entrants on the rail market seems very limited for the 2011-2015 period˃ e.g.: Yosaria in SK, Leo Express in CZ˃ Competition is expected to be mainly driven by incumbent rail operators expanding their activities abroad © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA˃ New entrants will be cherry-picking key city pairs
  18. 18. 3 Completion of new high speed lines ˃ 5000 km of new high speed tracks before 2020 ˃ From 11,000 km in 2011 to 16,000 km in 2020 660 ˃ Spain, Turkey and Russia followed by France and 293 Germany are the main © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA 505 countries investing in high- speed in the next years 650 312 72 13491708 New High-Speed tracks to be set up Rail tracks to be upgraded
  19. 19. 4 Multimodal hubs˃ Only 14 airports are connected to 1 long distance or high-speed rail services.˃ Demand exceeds capacity at many 4 1 of Europe’s core airports. 3 1˃ Under TEN-T, the EU supports the introduction of multimodal hubs at 2 2 37 key airports by 2030. © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA˃ This will provide passenger growth opportunities for rail operators, through competition and cooperation. Hubs with long-distance (or High-Speed) rail services Hubs with local / intercity or coach services only
  20. 20. 5 Air-Rail and Rail-Rail Cooperation Stockholm˃ Greater levels of +many airlines Air/Rail and Rail/Rail cooperation needed to deliver the Amsterdam Leipzig seamless passenger Dusseldorf experience Koln/Bonn Brussels that will Frankfurt © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA drive up Paris Strasbourg passenger volumes Basel Zurich +11 airlines Multi-modal hub Rail links with special agreements (substitution of air service by direct rail link) Cooperation
  21. 21. 6 Railways costs˃ Cost bases expand, rail companies won’t be able to rely upon external economic factors to improve growth and profitability.˃ Instead, it will be necessary to innovate and develop new services, becoming more customer-centric in the process. © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA˃ Many railways will have to move away from long term investments (CAPEX ) towards a more variable coast structure (OPEX).
  22. 22. Conclusion© 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA
  23. 23. Conclusion Continuous growth in passenger rail market Extensive high speed investments make rail travel more attractive Distribution systems grow together Customers profit from wider distribution and better © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA connections Railways and travel sellers win new customers and gain more customer loyalty
  24. 24. Publication of Rail 2020 study White paper publication in February 2013 Will be available for free at © 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA
  25. 25.© 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA